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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: September 23, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy on the mainland this morning, more so in the north with rain. Mostly cloudy in San Pedro. Light winds and somewhat moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of localized flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country this morning.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy this morning becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, with some light rain and a few showers or thunderstorms over northern districts this morning. Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly along the coast.
Winds: E-NE, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: (Sat & Sat night) Partly cloudy with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over most areas Saturday morning, then mainly over the coast Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from September 21 to September 28: There continues to be a low to medium chance of more sargassum mats coming ashore during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00 am, newly formed Tropical depression #9 was located near latitude 13.9N longitude 68.6W, or about 615 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. A broad area of low pressure between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days as the system moves northward. Hurricane Fiona was centered near 33.8N 66.8W, or about 155 miles northwest of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Gaston was located near 40.5N 29.6W, or about 140 miles north-northwest of Faial Island, Central Azores. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean including nearly formed Tropical Depression Nine.

The east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection S of 17N, mainly within about 90 nm of the Central American coast. Light to gentle winds prevail across the western and central Caribbean, west of 72W. Seas in this area are 1-2 ft. Fresh to near-gale force winds and seas of 5-10 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean in association with the tropical depression.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine has formed early this morning near 13.9N 68.6W 1006 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts 40 kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.4N 70.2W this afternoon and move to 14.7N 72.6W Sat morning. Nine will be at 14.8N 75.0W Sat afternoon, 15.5N 77.1W Sun morning, and 17.0N 78.8W Sun afternoon. Nine will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.9N 80.5W Mon morning and change little in intensity as it moves north of the Cayman Islands early Tue. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected near the track of Nine, including the central Caribbean today and Saturday, and portions of the northwest Caribbean Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Curacao and Aruba today and Jamaica this weekend. Interests in the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of Nine.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 8:15 AM Low: 3:08 PM
High: 9:08 PM Low: 2:47 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:41 AM Moonset: 4:42 PM
Sunset: 5:47 PM Moonrise: 4:34 AM (Sat)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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[Linked Image]

Satellite images of the tropical wave that is in the eastern Caribbean Sea with a high probability of cyclonic development and Hurricane Fiona, which is a hurricane of great intensity, being extremely dangerous as it moves towards the north affecting Bermuda.

There is now a high probability that a tropical depression will form in the Caribbean Sea from the wave with 90% for the next 2 and 5 days and that represents a danger to the Caribbean.

Global models have a high uncertainty of where this system is going, so a trajectory or impact cannot be predicted at this time because there is nothing formed yet but it is likely that a new tropical cyclone will form in one to two days, as it moves west northwest. Conditions will be more favorable and all residents of the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, should pay attention to this system in its future trajectory.

Preliminary track map for 98L / Invest98L.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]



For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a calm sea around our barrier reef after a night of pouring rain. The wind is from the North at 6 mph. Today's expected high temperature is 86f.

FB_IMG_1663939320115.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Another ITCZ active area went across Belize last night and is now moving away towards the NW, up into Mexico, caused a lot of rain in central and north Belize, but is now almost clear. There is another active area off the southern coast, which might bring some rain in later.

Looks as if today will be very varied and different in different parts of the country, sunshine in the south, but could turn to cloud and rain, cloud in the north, probably turning to sunshine later.

Last Night 23 °C 74 °F Yesterday max. 30 °C 86 °F Yesterday Rain 34 mm ( 1.34 " ) Over Night Rain 18 mm ( 0.71 " ) Humidity 90 % Pressure 1003 mBar Low

6A7F896E-643F-4785-8697-5D4D5199313B.png 556D4E7D-DE48-46CE-825A-3ECCDA1BED11.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:

Even though Tropical Storm Ian continues to be sheared by the outflow from a rapidly departing Hurricane Fiona, it has produced enough deep thunderstorm activity this evening to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm. Once the shear decreases over Ian during this weekend, significant strengthening is likely and all indications point to that the Cayman Islands will be impacted by a hurricane by Monday morning. Beyond this, rapid intensification is quite possible in the area between the northwestern Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where the environmental conditions will be very favorable for strengthening. In fact, it should be noted that the Rapid Intensification indices from the SHIPS intensity guidance are showing a 65 percent chance for Ian to strengthen to at least a 115 mph hurricane by Monday night into Tuesday morning.

My Thoughts Regarding The Potential Impacts To The Florida Peninsula Have Not Changed - The upper level weather pattern of a trough of low pressure over the eastern United States next week and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States means that a curve to the northeast looks very likely once this system pushes into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. We are still in a time of year where the upper level troughs aren't as deep or strong as they would be just a month from now. Because of this, I'm not buying into the ensemble members that are forecasting a nearly east-northeast track missing Florida completely to the south. Alternatively, I am also not buying into the guidance that are showing a straight shot to the north towards the Florida Panhandle. The reason why is because it makes no sense meteorologically for a hurricane to track right into the back side of an upper level trough of low pressure.

Instead, I think we'll see a more gradual turn to the northeast leading to this system coming ashore somewhere between Tampa and Naples as about a 100 to 120 mph hurricane during Wednesday morning.

A track to the northeast right across the central Florida Peninsula looks plausible during the day on Wednesday.

[Linked Image]

Flood Forecast for September 23rd , 2022

The National Hydrological Service hereby updates the public on river conditions in the country and issues the following:

REGION 9 FLOOD ALERT - Residents are advised that flood levels on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON persist.

REGION 7 FLOOD WATCH - Flood watch is in effect for the New River at Caledonia.

REGION 11 FLOOD WATCH - Flood watch is in effect for the Sittee River. FLOOD WATCH - Flood watch remains in effect for the Moho, Temash and Sarstoon Rivers.


REGION 7

On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, and at, San Roman, above normal and decreasing levels, are expected. At Douglas, and downstream to the coast, above normal and steady levels are expected.

On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill, above normal and decreasing levels expected; and at Caledonia, a Flood watch is in effect.

REGION 9

On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, above normal and increasing levels expected. On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities are expected to become steady. At San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the low-level bridge. On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, above normal and steady levels are expected. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, steady flood levels are expected.

REGION 11

On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, above normal and decreasing levels are expected to continue. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village, above normal and minimally increasing levels are expected.

In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, above-normal levels are expected. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, decreasing Flood stage levels are expected. On the Swasey branch, expect below normal and decreasing levels; and on the Bladen branch of the MONKEY RIVER, expect levels to increase to above normal levels. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, increasing above-normal levels are expected.

On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and at Big Falls South, above normal levels are expected. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, continued Flood stage levels are expected; and at Jordan, levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Damn, continued Flood Stage levels are expected.

REGION 13 On the SARSTOON RIVER, near Flood stage levels are expected.


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