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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: September 25, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy in the south this morning, clearer in the north. Mostly cloudy in San Pedro. A relatively moist and unstable conditions prevailing.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny skies today with a few cloudy spells. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated today, then tonight and tomorrow expect a few showers or thunderstorms to develop along southern coastal areas, elsewhere shower activity will be isolated.
Winds: E-NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Monday and Monday night is for partly cloudy skies and shower activity will isolated during the daytime, but a bit more at night.
Sargassum Forecast from September 21 to September 28: There continues to be a low to medium chance of more sargassum mats coming ashore during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am, Tropical Storm Ian was located near Lat 14.9N and Long 78.8W or about 345 miles south southeast of Grand Cayman. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Ian is moving across the basin. There is also convection in the far SW basin. The remainder of the area is void of precipitation.

Outside the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present across the eastern, north-central and south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist over the northwestern basin, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian is near 14.9N 78.8W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Ian will move to 15.7N 80.0W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 81.7W Mon morning, and reach 19.1N 83.1W Mon afternoon. Hurricane Ian will be near 21.0N 84.1W Tue morning, 23.0N 84.6W Tue afternoon, and 24.8N 84.8W Wed morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through the northeast Gulf of Mexico early Thu. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 9:39 AM Low: 4:01 PM
High: 9:58 PM Low: 4:04 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:42 AM Moonrise: 5:25
Sunset: 5:46 PM Moonset: 5:54 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:

Satellite imagery this evening indicated that there has been occasional deep convection occurring near the low-level center that reconnaissance aircraft have found a central barometric pressure of about 1002 millibars. The tropical storm remains disorganized and has not begun to undergo the process of rapid strengthening.

Ian is in an environment of low wind shear, very high moisture and lots of very warm deep Caribbean Sea waters. Once the low and mid-level circulations stack on top of each other, it is anticipated that Ian will rapidly strengthen. This is anticipated to begin to occur very, very soon (probably beginning during the day Sunday). In fact, the latest intensity guidance from the SHIPS model shows a 54% chance for rapid strengthening to a 80 mph hurricane by this time tomorrow evening and a 64% chance for Ian to rapidly strengthen to a 130 mph hurricane by or before Tuesday evening. Additionally, the SHIPS guidance now forecasts Ian to peak at about a 140 to 150+ mph hurricane by Tuesday when its moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Given the very favorable to extremely favorable environment out ahead of Ian, this seems reasonable.

My Current Thinking Is for a track that takes Ian inland along the west coast of Florida somewhere between Sarasota and Cedar Key during Thursday morning as a major Category 3 hurricane with about 120-125 mph winds. It's then possible that Ian will track northeastward and exit Florida somewhere between Jacksonville and St. Augustine later Thursday as still a hurricane.

[Linked Image]

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a 10 mph wind from the NE. It's raining at the moment and rained in the early morning hours. Today's expected high temperature is set at 87f.

FB_IMG_1664110781618.jpg

White Sands Dive Shop
https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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This TROPICAL STORM IAN is no on our pictures, it has been moving slowly, but is expected to turn northwards today, which should put it off track for us. Perhaps this is a good time to think about and go through your Hurricane preparations, including making you have enough food and water in the house and batteries for flashlights etc, to cover several days. I it continues westwards, it would get to us as a Tropical Storm, if it turns northwards, then the Coriolis Effect will help spin it up to a hurricane. There is high level winds coming our way from the NNE, the Caribbean winds are very slow right now, and there is a surface wind coming up from the SW over Belize.

Looks as if today will be a mixture of sunshine and cloud, presently only a small amount of rain mainly out at sea.
.
Last Night 25 °C 78 °F Yesterday max. 33 °C 92 °F Yesterday Rain 29.3 mm ( 1.15 " ) Over Night Rain 1.9 mm ( 0.07 " )
Humidity 91 % Pressure 1001 mBar Low

72ADACC3-A04D-4153-BD95-4DABCA3D4517.png 39E687C8-6289-476D-B272-83A1339B4622.png 68CB06F9-EC31-45A5-883E-BD88BA8CF3D9.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly sunny throughout the country. Sunny skies in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells during the daytime and cloudy at times tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated where a few more will occur over southern and offshore areas this afternoon, then over northern and central areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Variably cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated on Monday afternoon with an increase expected over the north and inland Monday night. activity will spread to most places later and then start to decrease by Tuesday morning with isolated activity by midday.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize City on Sunday. Photos by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Midnight in Hopkins.

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