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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear, light clouds cover the north and south part of the mainland this morning. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. Light and relatively moist and unstable airflow prevailing.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today along with a few showers or thunderstorms mainly over coastal areas at first; with showers spreading inland after mid-morning. Cloudy at times tonight with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over southern districts.
Winds: NE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: (Thur & Thur night) Partly cloudy with generally isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from October 4 to October 12: Latest satellite imagery show a significant decrease in sargassum over our area. Therefore, there is now only a small chance that new sargassum mats would land on local beaches in the coming days. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure, just east of the Windward Islands, is likely to become better organized, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Depression Twelve was centered near 15.8N 31.2W, or about 480 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


Phoenix Resort in San Pedro


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

There is a tropical wave and associated broad low pressure area located east of the southern Windward Islands.

A 1010 mb low is analyzed offshore the northern Nicaragua coast near 15.5N82W. A trough extends northeastward from the low to near 20N79W, and another trough extends from the low southeastward to near 12N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the west central basin, including the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 3-5 ft are over the central section of the sea. Light to gentle, with locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft continue over the western section of the sea.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section will move across the Caribbean through Sat night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. It will bring strong winds, some with possible brief gusts to gale force and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight, the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and the southwestern Caribbean through Sat night before moving into Central America. Interests across the region should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds with slight to moderate seas are expected through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between the low pressure and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 5:36 AM Low: 1:05 PM
High: 7:52 PM Low: 12:30 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:43 AM Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Sunset: 5:38 PM Moonset: 2:35 AM (Thu)


Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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From the Chief MET (Belize):

Chances for development with this system are now high. Could possibly be declared a depression or potential tropical cyclone by Tuesday evening. The typical reliable European model has it going into Nicaragua or Honduras this coming weekend.

The GFS model has it coming over us around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

We will monitor this one extra carefully. Even if it goes south of us, it could cause intense rainfall depending on intensity, size and speed of motion. Details of potential impacts will become clearer in the coming days.

Please have your emergency family plan ready.
NEMO hotline: 936

Here is a preliminary track map for 91L. Kindly remember, this map is subject to change in both track & intensity.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
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On Ambergris Caye this morning we have rain and a calm sea around our barrier reef from a 5 mph Northeast breeze.
Today's expected high temperature is set at 87 f.

FB_IMG_1664972377076.jpg
Last edited by elbert; 10/05/22 07:08 AM.

White Sands Dive Shop
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Marty Offline OP
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There are two areas of clashing, due to mid and high level winds going in opposite directions, one is off east Honduras, and clearly has a lot of rain in it. The other has been just off our coast for the last few days, but is now moving into coastal regions, as the easterly Caribbean wind are just stating to get back to normal easterly.

Looks as if sunny for most of Belize, cloudy in central areas, and some heavy cloud and rain in coastal regions.

Last Night 25°C 77 °F Yesterday max. 32 °C 90 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " )
Humidity 79 % Pressure 1005 mBar

1B1F5BBC-4089-4FC2-B816-B0EC0ACFB1D8.png 1DCCFFA3-4441-42C0-AD2D-776A0398CDA1.png
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Marty Offline OP
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91L Models:

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Corozal this morning:


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Crown Weather:

Even though Invest 91-L is disorganized, it is producing some very deep convection across the southern Windward Islands today. Any low-level center that has developed seems to be broad, but reconnaissance aircraft investigating this disturbance are finding quite a bit in the way of westerly winds. This means that Invest 91-L is fairly close to tropical depression strength.

Once Invest 91-L reaches the southwestern Caribbean, I think that strengthening into a tropical storm and very probably a hurricane is expected during Saturday into Sunday as it heads generally westward. With the much more southerly track that this disturbance is taking, it will very likely be guided along by a ridge of high pressure located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. This means that it looks quite likely that this system will make landfall as a hurricane probably in eastern Nicaragua or northern Honduras during Sunday afternoon or so.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Caribbean Storm Developing
A Caribbean storm is developing, and it could be a tropical storm as soon as this weekend. Regardless, we already have spotty power outages in Grenada and flooding in Trinidad and Tobago. Heavy rain continues in parts of Guyana, and St. Vincent & The Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Barbados may see rain out of this.

Next, it will head toward the ABC Islands, and bring tropical storm conditions. Our northern sections of Colombia and Venezuala will also get some heavy rain.

After that, we need to monitor closely in: Mexico, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. I'll keep a close eye on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands too.

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Present Condition: Mostly clear on the mainland, except along the northeast shore. Cloudy skies in San Pedro. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and tomorrow morning and cloudy skies at times tonight. A few showers, periods of light rain and isolated thunderstorms will affect the country, especially inland areas this afternoon and mainly the southern districts tonight. Showers will become isolated Thursday morning.

Outlook: Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated Thursday afternoon and Friday, except for slightly more over the southern districts.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Wednesday's view from the Swinging Armadillo in Hopkins. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

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Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Weather System Will Be A Storm By The Time It Reaches Central America

A disorganized area of low pressure continues moving across the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Another Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission went into the area this morning and found that there was no well defined center.

Right now, it's threading along the borders of Guyana and Venezuela while dropping heavy rain over Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.

Chief Met Officer Ronald Gordon gave us the latest information on the disturbance and discussed the forecast track which brings it to the Central American mainland in about 5 days, quite likely as a storm:

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorological Officer
"The system remains disorganized and there was a second hurricane reconnaissance mission this afternoon or this morning and they did not find a well-defined center of circulation.

"Most of the models are indicating that the system, once it moves away from the coast of South America into the southwestern Caribbean Sea where there is more ocean or it has more real estate, so to speak, to develop, there is the potential for it to develop and become a tropical storm. That's within about two to three days. And after that, where it goes is still relatively uncertain, however, one of the most reliable models which is the European model is indicating that the system will move towards Nicaragua and possibly Honduras, but because it is a system that is likely to move south of us, we would tend to get more rainfall from such systems."

"All indications are that it should be in that area of Nicaragua and Honduras around late Sunday and then after that move across and then would affect us on Tuesday.

"So all this is indicating that there is a lot of uncertainty in regards to the system at the moment, which means that we have to be extra vigilant and monitor it closely. As I always say our months of September and October, so certainly it is not unusual for us to have systems heading our direction at this time of the year."

Once the system becomes a tropical depression or storm they will be able to track it better - and we'll keep you closely posted.

Channel 7


Met Service Monitors Developing Weather System in Caribbean Sea

The National Meteorological Service is keeping a close eye on a low pressure system that has developed just off the coast of South America, in the eastern Caribbean Sea. While it poses no immediate threat to Belize, there is a likelihood that its path through Nicaragua and Honduras, should it gain strength in the days ahead, can result in torrential rains for the country. Forecasters are relying on a European tracking model to determine the direction of the weather system. This afternoon, Chief Met Officer Ronald Gordon provided the latest update on the developing conditions.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorological Officer

"Of course, we are monitoring this broad area of low pressure that is currently over the eastern Caribbean Sea or entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system remains disorganized and there was a second hurricane reconnaissance mission this afternoon or this morning and they did not find a well-defined center of circulation. So the system is currently disorganized and it is being impacted by relatively strong upper level winds, creating what we call wind share and also interaction because it's close to the landmass of South America. So, it is not a tropical depression, it is not a tropical cyclone at the moment. It is a broad area of low pressure moving westward at about fifteen miles per hour. In terms of the projection, most of the models are indicating that the system, once it moves away from the coast of South America into the southwestern Caribbean Sea where there is more ocean or it has more real estate, so to speak, to develop, there is the potential for it to develop and become a tropical storm. That's within about two to three days. And after that, where it goes is still relatively uncertain, however, one of the most reliable models which is the European model is indicating that the system will move towards Nicaragua and possibly Honduras, but again, it's a bit far out so we of course will be monitoring it closely to see if it takes that track."

Will the Developing Weather Make Its Way to Belize?

According to the Chief Met Officer, while they are better able to predict the movement of the system, meteorologists have not been able to calculate the intensity of the weather system. At the moment, the system near South America remains somewhat unpredictable.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorological Officer

"All indications are that it should be in that area of Nicaragua and Honduras around late Sunday and then after that move across and then would affect us on Tuesday. We don't know yet how strong it will be and when it reaches there, we do realize that in terms of hurricane path prediction there has been improvement, but when it comes to intensification there is still a lot of work to be done there. So systems can intensify rapidly depending on the conditions. So we are not certain how strong it will be and depends on how strong it will be the impact could be different for us. A stronger system moving slower across Nicaragua and Honduras, as we had with ETA and IOTA, will tend to dump more rainfall across the country. So all this is indicating that there is a lot of uncertainty in regards to the system at the moment, which means that we have to be extra vigilant and monitor it closely. Within the coming days, we are hoping that as more information becomes available we are going to be more certain of what the impacts will be on this country, if it does come our way. And like I said, all indications are that the system will not be re-curving northward, as we had with Hurricane Ian recently. The forecast track is for the system to move westward and across Central America."

Channel 5



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