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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 19, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning on the mainland, less so in the very north. Mainly clear in San Pedro. Mainly fair weather prevailing, later expect an increase in shower activity as weak cold front approaches the country.
Advisories: A flood warning remains in effect for communities along rivers in central and northern parts of the country.
24-hour forecast: Sunny skies today with a few cloudy spells. Tonight skies will be cloudy at times. Shower activity will be isolated this morning, this afternoon and evening a few showers and thunderstorms will develop over inland areas . Tonight and tomorrow morning expect a few showers and thunderstorms, along with periods of rain to develop over most areas.
Winds: E-NE, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: Thursday and Thursday night is for cloudy intervals with a few showers, periods rain or isolated thunderstorms to develop mainly over southern areas, the coast and offshore.
Sargassum Forecast from October 18 to October 26: The chances of new sargassum mats affecting the country remain low. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:


View at the airport/sunset

The Caribbean Sea

There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean.

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough that extends from 20N60W to the Caribbean near 18N62W. It continues to the coast of northwest Venezuela along 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of northern Colombia and he northwest part of Venezuela.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N from Colombia along 74W, westward to beyond southern Nicaragua into the tropical Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is over the western part of Central America. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southern Caribbean west of about 74W.

Wave heights are 3-4 ft south of 14N, and lower in the range of 1-2 ft over the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 16N southward in the central one- third of the area. Moderate wind speeds are within 160 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras.

As for the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
24° C
76° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
21° C
70° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
19° C
66° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
Low: 12:33 PM High: 7:20 PM
Low: 12:10 AM (Thu) High: 5:48 AM (Thu)
Sunrise: 5:47 AM Moonset: 2:00 PM
Sunset: 5:28 PM Moonrise: 1:32 AM (Thu)


Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Cold Front "Balanca" (num. 4) about to arrive and also a tropical wave is approaching from the Caribbean.

Top image is today, 2nd image is projection for October 22. Tropical waves are also in the area.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

NOAA's Prediction Center predicts a cyclonic event could occur over Eastern Caribbean waters with chances between 20%>40% from Oct. 26 to Nov. 1.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
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On Ambergris Caye we have calm seas from a Northwest breeze. The expected high temperature for the day is 87f.

FB_IMG_1666096079072.jpg
Last edited by elbert; 10/19/22 08:32 AM.

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Marty Offline OP
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The day and night temperatures have been way up higher than normal since that storm went past, but now there is a major change to our weather, there is a very strong cold air push coming down across the Gulf from the north, causing a lot of heavy cloud over the Gulf and the Yucatan and some areas of heavy rain in Yucatan and scattered showers across Belize.

Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, with a high chance of scattered showers any whaere.

Last Night 25 °C 80 °F Yesterday max. 33 °C 92 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Humidity 84 % Pressure 1004 mBar

5D7CA8DC-5725-46CE-826F-7E5F3360008D.png D7B55033-E366-4D3D-91C9-5D74D62FBCF1.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Good morning San Pedro, the Beautiful Island! Photo by the Ambergris Today

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Partly cloudy throughout the country, including in San Pedro, as a cold front begins to move into the area from the north. Moist and unstable conditions prevailing ahead of a weak cold front approaching the country. A flood warning continues for communities along rivers in central and northern Belize.

24hr Forecast: Skies will be cloudy at times. A few showers and thunderstorms will affect mostly northern and inland areas at first spreading to most places by evening into tonight. Then a few showers, period of rain and isolated thunderstorms will linger mostly along the coast and over southern and offshore by tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Generally cloudy skies with a few showers and periods of light rain or isolated thunderstorms mostly over some coastal, offshore and southern areas from Thursday afternoon through midday Friday.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Cold front Balanca (num. 4) is entering the area...

[Linked Image]


Pacific Hurricane Forming & A New Caribbean Tropical Wave
A Pacific hurricane is forming and a new tropical wave will bring a better chance of thunderstorms to the Eastern Caribbean this weekend. Heavy rain and the potential of flooding will continue for parts of Costa Rica and Panama, while the Bahamas, Jamaica, Belize, and the Cayman Islands will have a chance of passing showers.

By this weekend, thunderstorms will become numerous from Puerto Rico, down through Trinidad and Tobago. And that's also when a tropical storm or hurricane could threaten the south Mexico coastline.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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The mid, high level cloud from the west is causing a lot of clashing and rain showers and thunder in many places.

66B19D27-8DC6-48D8-97C5-742E5224158B.png 323F0BF3-B5A6-4C31-9684-38D131E6671D.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:
While the rest of this week looks quiet in terms of potential tropical development across the entire Atlantic Basin, there's the potential for tropical development to occur in the Caribbean during next week.

The GFS model is very consistent in forecasting that a tropical system will spin up in the central Caribbean around the middle part of next week. The question then becomes whether the GFS model is spinning up a phantom tropical system as the Canadian model is much weaker than the GFS model in forecasting a broad low pressure system to form in the central Caribbean during the second half of next week. The European deterministic model is even quieter and shows no development at all in the Caribbean through next week.

It should be noted though that about 65 percent of previous late October and November seasons with La Nina conditions have produced an impactful Caribbean tropical cyclone. So, this is a large reason why I think that we should at least keep an eye on the Caribbean for tropical mischief as we get into the second half of next week into the very first part of November.

====================

Cold front approaching Corozal town right now. It's coming with rain. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

[Linked Image]

=================

Flood Forecast October 19, 2022

The National Hydrological Service hereby updates the public on river conditions in the country and issues the following:

FLOOD ALERT

REGION 7

On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, FLOOD LEVELS are expected to become steady: downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman and Douglas to the coast, FLOOD STAGE LEVELS will continue to increase. On the NEW RIVER, at Tower Hill and Caledonia, decreasing Flood Stage levels expected to continue.

REGION 9

On the BELIZE RIVER, at Big Falls, Willows Bank, Double Hear Cabbage, Bermudian Landing, Isabella Bank, Flowers Bank, Maypen Burrell Boom, and Double Run, increasing levels continues as FLOOD WATERS MOVES DOWNSTREAM TO THE COAST.

On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, FLOOD LEVELS are 0.59m above the causeway and will continue to increase slowly.

On the MACAL RIVER at all BECOL facilities, SLOWLY DECREASING levels expected to continue.

FORECAST

REGION 9

On the MACAL RIVER at SAN IGNACIO, levels are expected to remain below low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, normal levels expected.

REGION 11

FLOOD LEVELS on the SIBUN RIVER at FREETOWN SIBUN have receded and are now above normal and continues to decrease. On the MONKEY RIVER at Swasey and Bladen, levels are expected to continue decrease. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal, levels are above normal and decreasing. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are expected to become steady.

**"Citizens in the Belize River areas are advised to exercise extreme caution*"*


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