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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 24, 2022


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly clear on the mainland, there are a few thin scattered clouds. Mostly clear skies in San Pedro. Mainly fair conditions prevail.
Advisories: A flood warning remains in effect for communities along rivers in central and northern parts of the country.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated with slightly more along the coast tonight.
Winds: E-SE, 5-15 kts
Sea State: Light Chop
Waves: 2-4 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 84
Outlook: Mainly fair conditions with only isolated showers, if any, for Tuesday. Then a few more showers will occur over the south Tuesday night along with a chance for isolated thunderstorms.
Sargassum Forecast from October 18 to October 26: The chances of new sargassum mats affecting the country remain low. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the waters of Venezuela S of 12N between 65W and 69W, and extend well inland. Otherwise, the remainder of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a dry stable environment that is suppressing any deep convection. A sharp upper level trough extending across the central Bahamas to Honduras is supporting widely scattered moderate convection N of 16.5N between 73W and 76.5W.

A weak pressure regime results in moderate trade winds prevailing across the Caribbean, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW, south-central and southeastern Caribbean, while 1-3 ft seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic and Caribbean will lead to gentle to moderate trade winds and light to moderate seas through Wed. A deep layered trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean Tue through Thu and will induce scattered thunderstorms across the basin E of 74W during that time. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E swell will move into Tropical Atlantic waters behind a tropical wave Tue night, and gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 33° C
91° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES, SUNRISE & MOONRISE:
High: 9:24 AM Low: 3:11 PM
High: 9:12 PM Low: 3:49 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:48 AM Moonrise: 5:00 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM Moonset: 5:04 PM


Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://sanpedrowx.com/
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village


Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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The influence of a tropical wave that will cross the south of the region, will favor some light to moderate rains in the peninsula.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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The easterly Caribbean winds are back in full control, but there is a blanket of cloud hovering over central Belize, slight traces of high level from the north, but there is a new high level coming across the Gulf from the NW, that could cause rain in the next few days.

Looks as if today will be sunny with some cloud for most of Belize, but remain over cast in central for some time, little or no rain.

Last Night 25 °C 76 °F Yesterday max. 31 °C 88 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0.6 mm ( 0.02 " ) Humidity 80 % Pressure 1003 mBar

ADB1B9C5-46C3-4CFC-A12A-7C07C27F2416.png 1715C3A0-96D8-423D-801F-F21E9B0C70FF.png
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear throughout the country, including in San Pedro. Mainly fair weather will prevail the next few days. A tropical wave will be generating some scattered rain and hot temperatures on Monday.

24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. Showers will be light and isolated.

Outlook: (Tue afternoon - midday Wed) Continuing mainly fair with only isolated showers.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Crown Weather:
Caribbean Sea Tropical Development Is Possible This Weekend Into Next Week

There's the very real potential for a tropical system to become a problem in the Caribbean Sea beginning this weekend and especially during next week. Both the deterministic model guidance and the ensemble model suite are pointing to the area around the central Caribbean Sea just south of Hispaniola will be the spot to watch for development.

The question then becomes what is going to be the catalyst for this potential development? It actually seems the development stems from a tropical wave that's now located to the east of the Windward Islands near about 50 West Longitude. It looks like this tropical wave will reach the southeastern Caribbean at the very end of this week and then reach the central Caribbean Sea at around the beginning part of next week.

There are a couple of concerning trends in the guidance since I last wrote late last week - The first is that there seems to be a trend towards more ridging over the western North Atlantic next week, which could allow for any tropical system to move towards the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The second trend seen in the latest guidance is for an increasingly more favorable environment for both development and strengthening next week in the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Given that the Caribbean Sea is a climatologically favored spot for tropical development this time of year and that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is now located in the Atlantic Basin, I do think that it's actually fairly likely that we are going to see tropical development in the Caribbean Sea as soon as this weekend and probably more likely next week in the area around the central Caribbean Sea.

====================

Weather analysis shows tropical wave approaching south of the Peninsula. Another tropical wave is approaching from the Central Caribbean.

[Linked Image]

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Beautiful morning in San Pedro. Photosby San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

San Pedro Twilight. Photo by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

t's a beautiful day in Hopkins Village. Photos by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Today's Evening walk in beautiful San Ignacio, Town.

[Linked Image]


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