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Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Belize Weather Forecast: October 29, 2022

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Clear skies throughout the country. There are a few light clouds, mostly in the southwest. Mostly clear in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails. A moderate increase in showers is expected tonight.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today along with isolated showers. Cloudy at times tonight with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the coast.
Winds: E-NE, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: (Sun & Sun night) Cloudy at times with a few showers Sunday morning, decreasing in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with isolated showers Sunday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 27 to November 2: Satellite imagery suggest that sargassum concentration over the area remains low and therefore there is unlikely to be any significant amounts of sargassum landing on local beaches during the next few days. San Pedro has a low probability with a minimal impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A deep-layered trough extends southward from Hispaniola to northern Venezuela. Aided by divergent southerly flow aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across the eastern basin, including the Windward and ABC Islands. Moderate to fresh E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds with 3 to 5 ft are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle with moderate NNE to NE trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the upper trough across the central Caribbean will lift northward tonight. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west- northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5 days.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
79° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
21° C
70° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
66° F
Low: 7:02 AM High: 1:23 PM
Low: 5:43 PM High: 12:28 AM (Sun)
Sunrise: 5:50 AM Moonrise: 10:06 AM
Sunset: 5:22 PM Moonset: 9:17 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Here is the latest NHC-Miami track map for Invest 95L, a tropical system that has a 70% chance of becoming a possibly a tropical depression or tropical storm (Lisa), October 29-November 1, 2022. The window for development appears to be limited as more hostile conditions are forecasted to take shape.

[Linked Image]

Over the next few days, the jet-stream dip is going to pull away to the north, leaving a conducive atmospheric environment, and another weak tropical disturbance will enter the Caribbean. The old disturbance plus the new disturbance plus the conducive conditions are forecast to come together to produce a tropical system.

The National Hurricane Center is now giving the system a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week.

The exact nature of the new system is unknowable, but there is high confidence that it will generally move west in the Caribbean. High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida will keep it bottled up to the south.

Although the atmospheric conditions appear conducive for development, the system will be battling dry air that has pushed south from the continental U.S. The arid atmosphere should help limit how strong it can get.

[Linked Image]

Saturday morning spaghetti models on Invest 95.

[Linked Image]

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye this morning we have an East wind at 6 mph creating a calm sea around our barrier reef. Today's expected high temperature is 87 f.


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Marty Offline OP
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There is a bit of clashing cloud around, despite the humidity being very low, 70% these last two days, there are a few rain showers around, but generally cooler easterly Caribbean winds.

Looks as if today again will be mainly sunny with white clouds building, but the chance of the odd scattered rain shower.

Last Night 25 °C 76 °F Yesterday max. 31 °C 88 °F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Over Night Rain 0 mm ( 0 " ) Humidity 71 % Pressure 1006 mBar

62CEA7BB-7836-4083-B21C-EDEC59B21D5F.png 02A6BB50-9E96-4ED1-A746-77D2A3624EC4.png
Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Present Condition: Mostly clear, a few light clouds on the mainland. Clear skies in San Pedro. Generally fair weather prevails.

24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells this afternoon and tomorrow morning and cloudy skies at times tonight. Showers will be isolated this afternoon and then will increase tonight into tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Between Sunday afternoon and Monday midday is for a few showers, with the chance of isolated thunderstorms mainly over inland areas Sunday afternoon, decreasing and becoming isolated Sunday night into Monday morning.

Latest Saturday afternoon spaghetti models for Invest 95 on Same thinking the next few days. NHC at 70% chance of development.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Caribbean Invest 95 Brings Flooding & It Could Develop This Weekend
Caribbean Invest 95 continues to bring flooding to areas, and it could develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Development will be slow, but heavy rain will be close to Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. This system will be close to Jamaica in a couple days, and then may move toward Belize and Honduras.

Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,400
Marty Offline OP
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Laguna views at Sundown. Photos by Marlena Gomez

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

Maxim's Bar and Grill in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Culture Saturdays at The Lodge at Jaguar Reef in Hopkins Village. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

[Linked Image]

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,675
On Ambergris Caye the breeze is from the North at 5 mph making a flat calm sea state around our barrier reef. The sky is a mix of sun and dark clouds. High temperature for the day is expected to be a cool 84 f.


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