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4:30pm from San Pedro

Posted By: Marty

4:30pm from San Pedro - 09/30/00 11:13 PM

<img align=right width=274 height=260 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30-3p.gif">KEITH BREAKS 100


First, let me say the weather on Ambergris Caye hasn't gotten any
worse, in fact seems a bit milder than it was around noon.


Now, make me say Hurricane Keith is up to 100 miles an hour, moving
little and, when moving, closer. Fifteen miles closer to Chetumal,
Mexico, from which he's now 105 miles distant, and us, to which he's
closer than he is to Chetumal.


Now, this may be an adjustment of the location of the center. The
previous distance, 120 miles, was estimated from satellite imagery,
whereas this one benefits from the observation of a planeload of
Flyin' Fools who aviated into it.


Or, it could be that the National
Hurricane Center is bound and determined Keith should go northwest, or
north-northwest, whereas Keith is determined not to move at all, and,
if so, to go southwest or west-southwest as he's done, by these
measurements, in the past three hours. Let's see, 15 miles, three
hours, carry the apostrophe, this littlepiggy went to market and - - -
five meteorologically incorrect and therefore denied and ignored miles
an hour -- but extend them hurricane warnings south!
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<img align=right width=222 height=247 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9_30_4p.gif">

The Hurricane Warning in Belize has been extended south to Monkey
River.


Now the forecast is for no significant motion for another 12
(nocturnally intensifying!) hours, further strengthening anticipated,
chance to become a :"powerful" hurricane, expected some day to head
northwest or north-northwest doggone it!


Well, now it's nice to have our reef. Storm surges from two to four
feet with battering waves are predicted in the hurricane warning area.
Folks outside it, remember waves carry a lot farther than winds.
Mitch knocked our beaches off and never got closer than 200 miles, did
minimal real wind damage. But the reef saved us from a disastrous
washout, as usual.


Pressure fans, here's a rundown on the pressure progress. The lower
the pressure, the worse the prospects of intensification, if you're
not a pressure fan.

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<img align=right width=349 height=284 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9_30_4p2.gif">

As of 5 PM EDT, (3 PM Central Standard Belizean Righteous Hourglass):
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


Was the pilot screaming loudly?


SORRY, CLASSIFIED.


Well, anyway. Compare these earlier estimates:


2 PM EDT:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...28.99 INCHES.


11 AM EDT:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


8 AM EDT:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES


5 AM EDT:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES


2 AM EDT:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


What next?


DON'T ASK.


Okay. Marty Casado recommends this neat site, a map of the warning and
watch areas, in case your Monkey River and Cabo Catoche geography's a
bit mildewed: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_astorm15.html


Mervin Key likes this projected path link: http://www.gopbi.com/auto/channels/weather/storm/2000/atlantic/keith/k
eithmap-c.html


and Brian Keatz sends this alternative view along: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200015_sat_jpg.html


to go with our trusty, wiggly old http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


and the more beautimous stationary http://www.weather.com/weather/sat/tropsat_720x486.html

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<img align=right width=223 height=188 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9_30_4p.jpg">
Which also shows well, Tropical Storm Joyce, which is - - - aw, never
mind. We've got enough trouble as it is.


On the other hoof, if I'm sitting here with electrical power and phone
connections on Ambergris Caye sending out this email message, things
ain't so tough yet.


John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]
Posted By: Marty

Re: 4:30pm from San Pedro - 10/01/00 12:32 AM

<br clear=all>
<img align=right width=285 height=149 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30-5p.gif">OH, FECALMATTER!

The boy has formed a visible eye. The white dot circled by the blue,
last frame.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


15 miles closer, markedly lower pressure, windspeed increased by 20
mph.


Fling dung it, this thing can go Cat 5 if it backs off from the shore
somewhat. Kinda up in the air what it can reach even in this close.
Three, maybe four, I'd say.
Dagnabbit.

Lankford
Posted By: Marty

Re: 4:30pm from San Pedro - 10/01/00 12:33 AM

the bars are closin and the dive shops be evacuating....

The wind has picked up from the north and the skies are becoming darker than
earlier this afternoon.


It has been drizzling on and off but no hard rains yet.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]
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