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Hurricane Ernesto

Posted By: Marty

Hurricane Ernesto - 08/02/12 04:23 AM

Here is an update on Tropical Depression #5 which formed from the area of disturbed weather in the west central Atlantic this evening... Stay informed and BE PREPARED!


Atmospheric conditions will become favourable for strengthening of TD # 5 as it approaches the Windward Islands and enter the eastern Caribbean. The NHC forecast track moves the system WNW to just south of Jamaica by next Monday afternoon as a hurricane; while the GFS model 850 mb level vorticity projection (Figure 2) has the vorticity maximum center or Low slowing down and moving towards the southern or central Yucatan coast by 12:00pm on Thursday, August 9, 2012.

All interests in the eastern, central and western Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of TD # 5 as it moves generally WNW during the next 24-48 hours.


CLICK HERE for the full Belize Mid Week Weather Report

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Depression #5 - 08/02/12 03:11 PM

TD 5 strugging
Jeff Masters

2:04 PM GMT on August 02, 2012

A disheveled Tropical Depression Five is clinging to life in the face of stiff wind shear and dry air, as the storm heads towards the Lesser Antilles Islands with a forward speed of 20 mph. The depression is very ragged looking on visible satellite loops. The depression has only a small area of heavy thunderstorms, which are on the south side of the center due to high wind shear and dry air on the northern side of the storm. Wind shear over TD 5 is at the moderate level, 15 - 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show that TD 5 is at the southern edge of a large area of dry air. Wind shear due to strong upper level winds from the west is driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. The first Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 5 Thursday afternoon to give us a better idea of its strength.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 5.

Forecast for TD 5
TD 5's west to west-northwest motion should bring its outer rain bands to Barbados early Friday morning, and high winds and heavy rain will spread over the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon. Since wind shear will be higher on the storm's north side, I expect the heaviest weather will be on the south side of TD 5, over the Windward Islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. However, the reliable ECMWF model predicts higher shear on Friday and Saturday, which could tear TD 5 apart. A number of our reliable computer models predict TD 5 will not survive its passage through the islands this weekend. However, most of the models agree that once TD 5 (or its remnants) pass enter the Central Caribbean on Monday, wind shear will fall to the low range, and strengthening (or regeneration) can occur. Once TD 5 enters the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning TD 5 more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico. An equally likely scenario at this point is that TD 5 will not turn, and instead will take a more westerly path over the Yucatan Peninsula. The long-term forecast for what the storm will do once it gets to the Western Caribbean depends upon whether or not TD 5 survives during the next two days.

Posted By: elbert

Re: Tropical Depression #5 - 08/02/12 03:17 PM

Masters, "disheveled Tropical Depression Five is clinging to life in the face of stiff wind shear and dry air"
Poor little TD, Masters almost makes you feel sorry for it :-)
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Tropical Depression #5 - 08/02/12 04:04 PM

The hurricane folks have had little or nothing to report on this side of the globe this year --- I am pleased as punch with that scenario.

Posted By: shuffles

Re: Tropical Depression #5 - 08/02/12 04:53 PM

@Elbert.... "almost".....
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/02/12 11:51 PM

Tropical Depression 5 Has Become Tropical Storm Ernesto

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196/ for complete Tropical Weather Report

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/03/12 03:51 PM

Ernesto survived the night and is building an eye-wall.
Jeff Masters' assessment is that the storm will eventually track north of us heading into the Gulf.
One computer model has the storm making landfall in Belize, whilst others take it along the path Masters suggests.
Please use the presence of this weather event as a reminder to be prepared for emergencies.
If you need a hurricane planning guide I can post one - or Marty can direct you to a site where you can read up on what to do.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/03/12 04:00 PM

Here is some general information on hurricanes in Belize:

//ambergriscaye.com/hurricane/
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/04/12 01:00 PM

Will Ernesto become a hurricane threat to Belize?

Chief Meteorologist Dennis Gonguez told Amandala late this evening that Belizeans should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which formed east of the Lesser Antilles earlier today and which could potentially become the second hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Gonguez said that the present track projects the storm as moving west and then making a slight turn north sometime over Sunday night and into Monday. That, said Gonguez, would put the storm just near Belize.

“What we are looking for over the weekend is a more northward turn. If we don’t see that materialize, we will have to hasten preparations,” Gonguez told our newspaper.

Tropical storm warnings—meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area case within 12 to 24 hours—have been posted for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles have been advised to continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Gonguez said that the weather system, which had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour this evening, is expected to continue moving at a pace of 22 miles per hour, which, he noted, is not healthy for its development.

“When they move too fast, the environment does not become conducive to development,” the Chief Meteorologist said, adding that he is not expecting any rapid strengthening of the system.

However, he said that if the storm survives while moving at such a fast speed, it could become a minimal hurricane at the most.

“We have more confidence in the track forecast than the intensity forecast,” said Gonguez, speaking of the long-range predictions.

For Belize, he said, the weekend should be relatively quiet and dry.

With the development of Tropical Storm Ernesto from Tropical Depression #5, said Gonguez, the season’s performance is matching meteorological predictions made for 2012. The National Hurricane Center in Miami had said that “...there’s a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those 1 to 3 will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5).”

Two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, formed ahead of the official June 1 start-date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Since then, Hurricane Chris, Tropical Storm Debby and now Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth storm of the season, have emerged.

In a cautionary note, Gonguez emphasized that although the season appears to be average or slightly below average, it only takes one system to wreak havoc.

Amandala
Posted By: SFJeff

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/04/12 01:48 PM

...some of the latest info... storm looks better organized than when the above piece was written. Not a lot of confidence/consensus in either intensity or path... other than it will get stronger, keep heading west and probably(?) curve north... one to keep an eye on.

==================

NHC discussion as of 5:00 AM EST

The low-shear environment and improved structure of the cyclone suggest at least steady intensification over the next couple of days. However...the disagreement in the intensity guidance continues. The SHIPS and lgem still show a faster pace of intensification...while the dynamical models show strengthening at a much slower rate. Given the current trends...the official forecast has been adjusted upward and shows Ernesto becoming a hurricane in 36 hours...but remains below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Later in the period...the GFDL shows more intensification than earlier runs...but the HWRF and much of the hfip guidance remain weaker. At days 3 through 5 the new NHC forecast has been adjusted upward slightly...and is close to the iv15 consensus and the Florida state superensemble. Needless to say...there is low confidence in the intensity forecast through the period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/16 as Ernesto is situated south
of the subtropical ridge. The track model guidance is in good
agreement through 48 hours in showing a continued westward motion
as the ridge builds westward to north of the cyclone. Through this
time the NHC forecast is simply an update of the previous one. At
days 3 through 5 there continues to be large spread in the model
guidance. The biggest change this cycle is a southward shift in the
UKMET...which now joins the GFS and ECMWF in showing that Ernesto
will remain too far south to move into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge that develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
4 to 5 days. However...the GFDL...HWRF...and several of the hfip
models continue to show Ernesto gaining more latitude in the second
half of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a
little to the south toward the new multi-model consensus at days 3
through 5...but still lies to the right of the center of the
guidance envelope.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/04/12 06:54 PM

Ernesto weakens; Florence forms
Jeff Masters

4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012

Enigmatic Tropical Storm Ernesto continues westward across the Caribbean, but has weakened. Ernesto certainly looks impressive on visible satellite loops, with a symmetric shape, good spiral banding, and an upper-level outflow channel to the north and east. But this morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had weakened, with top winds of just 50 mph, and a central pressure that had risen to 1008 mb. The storm is fighting low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the west side of the storm. Ernesto's rains are staying just north of the ABC Islands, as seen on Aruba radar. The southern shore of the Dominican Republic is experiencing occasional heavy rains from Ernesto's spiral bands.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto continues to be a major challenge to forecast. Despite the seemingly favorable conditions for intensification expected today through Tuesday, with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, many of our top computer models refuse to predict intensification, and in fact, weaken the storm. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the NOGAPS and GFDL show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The ECMWF dissipates the storm. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in the Caribbean. The official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 1 hurricane between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is a reasonable compromise, but the uncertainty in this is high. It would not be a surprise to see Ernesto mysteriously degrade, or undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of the Yucatan. Such is the state of modern hurricane intensity forecasting. Given that we don't have a very good idea of how strong Ernesto will become, making an accurate track forecast is hard. A stronger Ernesto will be more likely to feel the influence of a trough of low pressure moving to the north of the storm on Tuesday, which would pull the storm to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. This would likely result in a landfall in the U.S. A weaker Ernesto is more likely to head almost due west, resulting in a landfall Wednesday in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This is the more likely solution, given the recent behavior of the storm.

Click here for the full Daily Tropical Weather Report






Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Ernesto taken at 8 am EDT, with echoes from a microwave satellite instrument in the 85 GHz band superimposed. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Posted By: Kayo

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 01:00 PM

[Linked Image]

yep, weakening, and the track's slid somewhat southwards, as Jeff predicted.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 04:58 PM

[Linked Image]
The latest run of Hurrevac (below) indicates a more southerly tract of TS Ernesto, which will bring the TC over northern Belize early on Wednesday. The heavy downpours will start from early Tuesday. The storm will likely slow down and strenthen as it enters the NW Caribbean. Conditions will be favorable for flash floods.

Follow the link below for High Res satellite images of Ernesto (375 m) for this morning. The convection is intense E and NE of the center.
http://go.wisc.edu/qzooq5

Ramon Frutos
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 05:06 PM


USA National Weather Service Forecast

11:00 am EDT on August 5, 2012

...Poorly-organized Ernesto moving rapidly westward...

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 77.1 west. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/h...and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track...the center of Ernesto is expected to pass south of Jamaica today and move north of the northeastern coast of Honduras late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible as Ernesto moves over the western Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Click here for the full Daily Tropical Weather Report

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 09:53 PM

From: Diane Campbell

Hot, sunny, beautiful.

Predictions are for Ernesto to arrive in Belize City (30 miles south of here)
in the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday. We anticipate rains to start
early on Tuesday and for mainland flooding to be the major threat.

Due to the rapid rate of travel of this storm we're planning to do a bit of
prep Monday just in case - pulling a little boat and tucking away some
furniture isn't much work and better safe than sorry.

As of now, most resorts on the island are planning on business as usual.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 10:18 PM


3pm Navy Track

Tropical Storm Ernesto is currently predicted to arrive around Belize City late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, with winds between 65 and 75 mph. Track has dropped south a bit...

Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/05/12 11:45 PM

WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Monday, March 5-12, 2012

Here is the Weekly Outlook and an update of TS Ernesto ploughing westwards at 20 mph with max sustained winds of 50 mph at 3:00 pm this afternoon.

Expect torrential rainfall and TS force winds with this system on Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RFrutos

The feature of interest this week will be the approach and landfall of tropical cyclone Ernesto along the northern coast of Belize on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a minimal hurricane. The GFS model cyclonic vorticity projection has the center of Ernesto moving across the central coast of Belize early on Wednesday. Although Ernesto is entraining dry air as it moves into the western Caribbean this evening, environmental conditions will still be favorable for the system to strengthen to hurricane intensity before making landfall over the northern or central coast of Belize. A strong windshear zone is evident in the extreme NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico, while a persistent high pressure ridge to the north of the western Caribbean will keep Ernesto on a westerly to west-northwesterly track, propelling the system towards the southern Yucatan-Belize coast. Regardless of where, along the coast of Belize, Ernesto makes landfall, tropical storm force winds will affect most areas of Belize, with hurricane force winds in a narrow zone near the center. Torrential rainfall will spread across the country by Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with highest concentration projected over the north and central areas of the country. The instability will persist through Thursday until Saturday. So expect much rainfall this week, with a high potential of strong winds near where Ernesto makes landfall, and flooding in flood prone areas, including the Belize city area and surroundings!

Daily rainfall accumulations will range from 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall rates will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday continuing through Thursday. Expect the highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with rates of 2-3 inches per day. Locally higher daily rates of 4-5 inches are expected in the elevated areas of the Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. The northern sector of the mainland including the Belize District will also see high rainfall accumulations on Tuesday through Thursday, with totals of 2-3 inches per day. The rapid runoff will provoke localized flash floods in valley and hilly areas. Residence in flood prone zones should be prepared to move to safer areas!

CLICK HERE for the full Belize Weekly Weather Report

Posted By: SFJeff

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 04:20 AM

...REALLY worth paying attention to Ernesto over the next 24 hours folks.

Latest NHC update (11:00 pm) notes that the storm has slowed down (14 mph), pressure has dropped (1003 mb) and it's slowly getting its act together. The one thing boding well for us at this point is that it is not vertically aligned so to speak, though the NHC expects Ernesto WILL become vertically aligned in about 24 hours. That could give it a last minute spurt of intensification right before landfall. Right now they're calling for a weak Cat 1 at landfall. Let's hope it stays that way.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 12:46 PM

Current Tropical Weather report //ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196/Today_s_Tropical_Weather_Outlo.html#Post392196 :
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 01:53 PM


Here is the Hrrevac update track of TS Ernesto and the latest satellite image. Ernesto has slowed down to 14 mph but still heading west. This means that the storm can strengthen to hurricane intensity, as is forecast, and the punishing winds and torrential rainfall will last a longer time when it makes landfall over the central or northern coast of Belize on Wednesday morning. BE PREPARED.

RFrutos

update from 1pm NEMO meeting in San Pedro. No alcohol sales at all. Curfew at 10pm. Shelters open from 2pm to 6pm if you want to move. 1200 poeple have evacuated by plane and boat. Take down all scaffolding IMMEDIATELY from all construction. Currently at 18.5 Latitude (here in town we are at about 17.5 Lat).

The weather forecast for San Pedro: Significant increase in wind at 8pm here in San Pedro and intermittent rain throughout the day.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 02:44 PM

NEMO has declared a Phase 2 Tropical Storm Advisory for Belize and those that are living in the cayes and flood prone areas are advised to move inland to higher ground.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 02:54 PM

NEMO Public Advisory # 4
Tropical Storm Ernesto

TIME: 6:00 A.M.
LOCATION: 15.2N 81.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West at 12 MPH
EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 505 MILES
Tropical force winds extend outwards up to a 125 Miles.

NEMO and the National Meteorological Service have declared Phase II and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for the entire country of Belize.


People in the outer Cayes: Turneffe, Glover’s Reef, Light House, Halfmoon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye and outer Atolls need to heed the warnings issued by NEMO and make necessary preparations to move in land. People who would like to leave voluntarily from the Cayes are encouraged to do so.

People living in areas that normally flood need to move to a dry and safe building area and bring along their food and water.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 03:18 PM

Ernesto nearing hurricane strength
Jeff Masters

8 am Belize time on August 06, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is undergoing significant strengthening, and is not far from hurricane strength, according to data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter mission. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to 997 mb at 8:13 am EDT, and had dropped another 3 mb to 994 mb at 9:17 am. Surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument had increased to 68 mph, and the plane found 89 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northwest side of the eye. A full eyewall surrounding a small 9-mile diameter eye had formed. Ernesto's forward speed has slowed down to 12 mph--just half of what it was 24 hours ago, and this has allowed the surface center to align itself with the circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. Visible satellite loops show that Ernesto's heaviest thunderstorms are now located near the center of the storm, and these thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is still battling moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. Water vapor satellite loops show dry air to the west, but the environment around Ernesto is the moistest we've seen since it entered the Caribbean. On Sunday, Ernesto brought 1.73" of rain to Kingston, Jamaica, and top sustained winds of 37 mph.

Forecast for Ernesto
Now that Ernesto has slowed down in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north, continued steady intensification appears likely. While wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range the next two days, Ernesto is over warm ocean waters of 28°C with very high heat content, and rapid intensification to a Category 2 hurricane is possible today. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts a 26% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds over a 24-hour period. The main obstacle to intensification will probably be proximity to land, as the center of Ernesto is likely to pass very close to the coast of Honduras late Monday night. This will put a portion of the storm's circulation over land, limiting intensification potential.

The winds this Monday morning at Puerto Lempira on the northeast coast of Honduras have not yet begun to increase, but will begin to rise this afternoon and peak near midnight tonight. High winds and heavy rains will spread westwards along the coast of Honduras early Tuesday morning, and reach coastal Belize near 2 pm Tuesday. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast Thursday night south of Veracruz. However, most of the computer models predict that Ernesto will pop out so far south in the Bay of Campeche that the storm will have less than 24 hours over water. This makes significant re-intensification unlikely.




Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 04:06 PM

Hurricane watch issued for entire coast of Belize...

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 05:13 PM


Here is the 9:00 am updated track and warnings for TS Ernesto. Ernesto is intensifying and will become hurricane within the next 3-6 hours as it heads W (280 deg) at 9 mph. All preparations should be underway.

RFrutos

Posted By: ckocian

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 05:54 PM

It looks like (on Hydromet) some outer bands are already approaching AC.
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 06:16 PM

Right now the sun is out and the weather is simply beautiful.
I can hear low rumbles of thunder way out to sea, but don't see any thunderheads to go with them. I guess the sounds could be from Ernesto's advance guard ??
The town is transforming ..... boards going up on windows, boats being pulled and stored, people thinking about eating Spam by candlelight.
Posted By: ScubaLdy

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 07:15 PM

It became very dark about 15 minutes ago and started raining. This band seems to have passed and there is blue sky over the reef.
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 07:18 PM

The only storm prep going on in town is a line-up at the water taxis. Otherwise no boards yet
Posted By: natalie p

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 07:28 PM

I believe a lot of those leaving are from those who came for the Costa Maya.
Posted By: dolfins

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 09:05 PM

wat they should do is help the woman and childrens that cant afford to come out of the island LAST YEAR THEY GAVE FREE BOAT RIDE AND BUS TO BELMOPAN GOD KNOWS WAT THEY WILL DO THIS YEAR
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 10:32 PM

NEMO Public Advisory # 5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

MIDDAY
LOCATION: 16.2N 81.1W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 483 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West North West at 12 MPH

NEMO declares Hurricane warning Red II, for the entire Coast of Belize.
Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later today.


At this time NEMO urges the public to put their Hurricane plan into action! People living along the coast and in the outer Cayes: Turneffe, Glover’s Reef, Light House, Half-moon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye need to heed the warnings issued by NEMO and make necessary preparations to move in land. Coast Guard have been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. Those persons who are capable of leaving the Cayes on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate!

People living in areas that normally flood need to move to a dry and safe building and remember to take along their food and water to the Shelter.

NEMO hereby notifies ALL employers that they MUST allow their workers time off effective tomorrow morning to secure their families.

Tomorrow additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to support the public moving inland. Government Transport will be pooled for deployment in Corozal, Orange Walk, Belize City and Cayo District.

Effective today, the Ministry of Education has called off the workshop for principals and teachers, including orientations and registrations. Principals and teachers are asked to use the rest of today to secure their schools to ensure that equipment, materials and other resources are out of harm’s way and that the school is prepared if it is to be used as a shelter. Furthermore, after securing their schools equipment, principals of schools identified as official shelters are asked to turn over school keys to their respective emergency management organizations (DEMOs, CEMOs or VEMOs).

Public Officers must be ready for Shelter duties.

At 1:00 p.m. today NEMO will be on full activation country wide.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/06/12 11:04 PM

The government of Belize has changed the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for the entire coast of Belize.

Satellite updates



Below here, you can click on the images to get LARGE versions...






We are still expecting Ernesto to move west or west northwest Tuesday night and make landfall over Belize around daybreak Wednesday. The storm will weaken as it tracks westward across Belize, southern Yucatan and near or over northern Guatemala Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The biggest impacts across this area will be torrential rainfall. We are expecting a general 4-8 inches of rain over Belize, southern Yucatan and northern Guatemala with some localized 12 inch rainfall amounts in the higher terrain.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 02:44 AM

 
 
National Emergency Management Organization
“Preserving Life and Property”
DATE: Monday, 06th, August 2012                         TIME: 6:00 P.M.

NEMO Public Advisory # 6
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
 
TIME: 6:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 16.5N 82.1W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 415 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West North West at 12 MPH
 
 
Hurricane Warning Red II is still in effect for the entire Coast of Belize.  Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later tonight.  Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 4-6 inches.
 
NEMO will be opening shelters for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.
 
o Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.
 

o Small Craft should seek safe harbour at the end of today or tomorrow morning at the latest. The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes.  
 

o Those persons who are capable of leaving the Cayes on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate!  If you are going to Shelters take along food and water.   Areas of concern are: Gales Point and Mullins River, Belize City, Hattieville, Western Paradise, Lord’s Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal.  Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including:  Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.
 

o Your emergency / Hurricane Plan must be placed into action
 

o If you live in an area subjected to flood, NEMO and the Met Office advises you to be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety.      
 

o Persons living in Coastal areas in particular are encouraged to put up shutters.
 
Tomorrow additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland.
 
NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto.

===========

Evacuation Services by Tropic Air, re: Tropical Storm Ernesto
Monday, August 6th, 2012

Effective immediately Tropic Air will begin Evacuation Service. Tropic’s goal is to evacuate our customers as safely and efficiently as possible. When developing your family’s evacuation plan, please keep the following tips in mind:

• Tickets are issued on a first come, first serve basis.
• Please arrive at the Tropic Air offices with your luggage, two small bags per person, prepared to evacuate.
• Owners of large pets that require kenneling must evacuate pets during the hurricane watch phase of the threat to San Pedro. No space will be available during the height of an emergency evacuation (Hurricane Warning).
• Please remember that cargo is on a space available basis, and over-sized items will not be sent during this time.
• As the weather deteriorates, we will be forced to stop flying.
Tropic Air will evacuate as many people as possible. Please help us make your family’s evacuation plan safe and efficient.

 
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 02:50 AM


Ernesto has to potential to reach hurricane intensity over the next 6-12 hours. The latest GFDL and HWRF 850 mb vorticity projection brings the vorticity center of Ernesto somewhere in the Chetumal Bay, near or just north of the border of Belize and Mexico by midnight, Tuesday night or 12:00 am on Wednesday, August 8, 2012.  

TS conditions will impact most of Belize, while hurricane conditions will be locally confined to the northern Orange Walk and Corozal Districts and southern Quintana Roo/Yucatan.  Torrential rain will drench Belize, with max accumulation in excess of 8 inches over some areas by the time this is all over.  High potential therefore exist for localized flash floods and inundation of low lying areas expecially over the nothern and central districts of Belize.   

RFrutos  

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 12:06 PM

Evacuation plans activated to move islanders

To avoid overcrowding, persons evacuating the islands are being taken to Orange Walk and Belmopan. CEMO says homeless persons across the city will be picked up and taken care of, but it is asking neighbors to inform them of any “shut-ins” who need assistance.

Darrell Bradley

Darrell Bradley

“All those persons who are coming into Belize City from the islands—I indicated that there’s a voluntary evacuation—those persons who come in from the island and who are being evacuated will be bused to shelters that are not in Belize City. We’ve actually coordinated it so that some persons will be taken to Belmopan, some persons will be taken to Orange Walk and we actually have persons who are going to take them, we have shelters. So we are coordinating, it’s a national effort and the City Emergency Management Organization is doing its part in coordination and as directed by NEMO to indicate that all those persons are bused to the appropriate area. So our emergency plan already documents where every single person will go from San Pedro and Caye Caulker and the other islands and that plan does not call for them being housed in Belize City.

Our special constables will go around and they have gone around already but we haven’t opened shelters, we’re not at that stage as yet, but we will have persons going around and asking people if we see people who demonstrate that they are unable to take care of themselves, to really deal with them. I also want to make a point that we are also trying to work with shut-ins and I know this is an aspect that councilor Willoughby is always communicates on that if persons know a person who is a shut in because of course, the homeless on the street are much easier to see when we drive around and we see them there, we can just pick them up and take them to a shelter. But we’re asking residents to call us in if they know any person—this would be done tomorrow—if they know any person who is a shut-in. So some persons might be in their home, they might not have anyone to take care of them and those are people we can arrange transportation to take them to a shelter.”

Channel 5

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 12:07 PM

Ernesto expected to become hurricane and reach northern Belize

Pull out your hurricane preparedness plans because a category one strength hurricane is heading this way and the entire coast is under threat. Tropical Storm Ernesto has been on the radar for about a week; it was initially expected to head north into the Gulf of Mexico but Ernesto has shifted and now has his eye on northern Belize. The storm is also strengthening and is expected to be upgraded to a category one hurricane before it makes landfall in the area of northern Belize and southern Mexico on Tuesday. It is the first storm to be heading this way this season and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) is fully operational.  As of one o’clock this afternoon, a phase two hurricane watch was put in place for the entire coast of the country.  Voluntary evacuation from the islands has already begun and NEMO advises that persons on Turneffe Island, Glover’s Reef, Light House Reef, Half-moon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye need to be prepared to move in land. News Five spoke to Meteorologist Ronald Gordon today for the latest on Ernesto’s location and what residents can expect.

Ronald Gordon, Meteorologist

Ronald Gordon

“Tropical Storm Ernesto as of three p.m. this evening was at situated at latitude sixteen point two north and longitude eighty-one point six west. That position is about a hundred and thirty-five miles northeast of Cabo Gracias Adios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border or about four hundred and forty-seven miles east by south of Belize City.  We are gonna begin to see the outer bands, rain bands of the storm affecting us starting tonight. However, the stronger winds are going to be picking up some time tomorrow, probably after midday into Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.”

Delahnie Bain

“And when is landfall expected?”

Ronald Gordon

“Landfall is expected sometime between midnight on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning.”

Delahnie Bain

“What parts of the country are expected to be affected?”

Ronald Gordon

“Okay, first of all let me say that we have a hurricane watch for the entire coast of Belize. That means that everyone in that area should be making preparations for any eventuality with the storm. However, given the current projected path, the northern parts of the country are more prone to the adverse effects of the storm.”

Delahnie Bain

“Can you speak about the current strength and speed of the tropical storm?”

Ronald Gordon

“Okay, currently it is a sixty-five miles per hour tropical storm and it is moving towards the west north west at about twelve miles per hour.”

 

Delahnie Bain

“And I know that when we first started getting advisories and so on, it was projected to go more north. When did you start seeing that change in pattern, coming more towards Belize.”

Ronald Gordon

“Okay, what happen is that they were projecting an upper level feature to move it more to the north but eventually that system moved away to the west around yesterday and the numerical modules eventually began to see this motion and moved it more towards the south towards out area. That would be sometime around yesterday.”

Delahnie Bain

“What kind of effects are we expecting? It should be a hurricane by the time it gets here?”

Ronald Gordon

“It is expected to be a hurricane of about anywhere between seventy-five and eighty-five miles per hour winds; that’s a category one hurricane. That could produce rainfall amounts of about four to six inches at the time of landfall with a maximum of about eight to twelve inches and storm surge potential of about two to four feet above normal tides.”

Channel 5

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 12:09 PM

Ernesto Eyes Belize

Today, all across the country the red flags went up - as Belize was put under Hurricane Watch.

Tonight, we are under a hurricane warning, which means that two Red Flags are now flying - with Tropical Storm Ernesto packing winds of 65 miles per hour and located 415 miles East of Belize's coast or 410 miles east south east of Belize City.

The 6:00 pm update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami reports that Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving west North West at 12 miles per hour - which puts it on a track to make landfall north of Belize by Wednesday.

The worry is that it can strengthen to a hurricane by later tonight and continuing to strengthen throughout the day tomorrow. Now, this is just a projection, a forecast, but anything and everything can change in the life of a storm.

Twenty minutes ago we spoke vie telephone with the Chief MET Office, Dennis Gonguez to find out what the latest information means for Belize:..

Dennis Gonguez, Chief MET Office
"At 6pm today Tropical Storm Ernesto was near latitude 16.5 north, longitude 82.1 west. That position is about 110 miles east south east of Belize City. Tropical Storm Ernesto had maximum sustain winds of 65 miles per hour heading towards the west North West at 12 miles per hour."

"Our 7 day forecast track takes Tropical Storm Ernesto up near the northern sections of our country and making landfall somewhere around midnight around 3am on Wednesday morning."

Monica Bodden
"At 6pm it showed the storm had winds of 65 miles per hour moving west North West at 12 miles per hour. What does that mean for Belize?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief MET Office
"That means that we should see some deterioration in the weather some tomorrow morning and by 3pm - 6pm tomorrow we should start experience tropical storm force winds in the outer cayes area and offshore waters."

Monica Bodden
"How soon will it make landfall on the out laying islands and Belize mainlands?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief MET Office
"Around midnight on Tuesday and then on the mainland around 3am. Presently the tracks takes it somewhere around the border with Mexico, however Belize City is still in that uncertainty area."

Monica Bodden
"Anything else you'd like to add Mr. Gonguez?"

Dennis Gonguez, Chief MET Office
"Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to develop further and become a category 1 hurricane before landfall. So it's quite possible that you could see a category 1 hurricane with about 75-80 miles per hour winds just before landfall tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning. So we should pay attention to Tropical Storm Ernesto as it nears the country."

Channel 7 will have regular updates on the storm throughout the night. But the situation right now is that NEMO'S 6:00 PM ADVISORY stresses that Hurricane Warning Red 2 is in effect for the entire coast of Belize.

NEMO will be opening shelters for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. That means Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

Tomorrow additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland. Small Craft should seek safe harbour at the end of today or tomorrow morning at the latest. The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes.

Those persons who are capable of leaving the Cayes on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate! If you are going to Shelters you should take along food and water.

Areas of greatest concern are: Gales Point and Mullins River, Belize City, Hattieville, Western Paradise, Lord's Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal. Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including: Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.

Later on, we'll have more on the storm for Belize City Residents as the Mayor addresses CEMO's plans - and coming up we'll also have the regular evening weather report.

Channel 7



NEMO San Pedro activated…voluntary evacuation is advised

The San Pedro branch of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) was officially activated at 1PM on Monday August 6th. The Emergency Operation Committee (EOC) has been in full operation as the island continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto which is projected to be a Category One hurricane before making landfall. NEMO is advising residents living in the low-lying areas of Ambergris Caye to evacuate voluntarily to higher grounds.

Speaking to the press after a 2PM meeting at the NEMO office in San Pedro, Deputy Chairman of the EOC for San Pedro NEMO Branch Mayor Daniel Guerrero said that the San Pedro committee is ready. “We have been meeting since early this morning. I have advised the people (residents) to put their respective plans into action and to do so early. We are advising them to buy their food and water, their flashlights and batteries and everything they need to do, they need to do it early. I want everyone to do their part and not leave it last minute for NEMO to do,” said Mayor Guerrero.

Residents are advised to make the necessary arrangements to protect their properties including their vessels. Meanwhile Mayor Guerrero encouraged, “I am asking those living in the low-lying areas of San Pedrito, San Mateo, DFC and Eliot Subdivisions to move to higher grounds. If in case they want to move to the mainland, then tomorrow we will be doing so via the water taxi. However we are asking people to do so voluntarily now that they have time to do so,” said Guerrero. Five locations have been identified as shelters, should the need arise here on Ambergris Caye. Those locations include the buildings at the San Pedro High School, New Horizon Seventh Day Adventist School, Shalom Church, Living Word Church and the San Pedrito Evangelical Church.

At 6pm Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 16.5° North Latitude, 82.1° West Longitude or about 415 miles east by south of Belize City or 447 miles east southeast of Ambergris Caye, Belize. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph and movement was to the West-North-West at 11mph. On the projected path, Ernesto is expected to make landfall as a Category One hurricane on northern Belize sometime between late Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. According to retired Meteorologist and Hydrologist in Belize and Chairman of the Information, Education and Warning Committee in San Pedro Frank Panton, the weather will see significant deterioration on Tuesday as Ernesto comes closer to Ambergris Caye. “On its present track it should land somewhere through San Pedro Town or a little north. That means that the residents of San Pedro should start activating their hurricane preparedness plan and make sure that their actions plan is completed by midday tomorrow. We are advising voluntary evacuation especially if their living structures are not safe to withstand 75 to 85 miles per hour wind which we expect. Those winds would be, we expect at the extreme when Ernesto becomes a hurricane sometime after tomorrow morning,” explained Panton.

If the prediction remains the same, Panton said that when the storm makes landfall two significant things will happen. “There will be about three inches of rainfall in 24 hours. The next thing will be the sea conditions. We expect to get about 12 foot waves outside of the reef which will translate to about five to six foot waves on the eastern shore of the island. We don’t expect too much of a serious condition on the western coast of the island except the water from the conditions. With the waves hitting the docks, the less secure ones will begin moving and then with the 85 mph winds, it will do significant damage to the weaker docks,” detailed Panton.

The islanders are therefore asked to be as prepared as possible to secure life and property. “The biggest concern will come after Tuesday night. Between Tuesday midnight and early Wednesday morning is going to be the worst part of the storm. Boat captains are advised to take their boats to safe harbor. There should be no panic but take the necessary precaution like to secure your homes,” ended Panton.

Meanwhile Mayor Guerrero echoed advising his residents to listen to the NEMO update and be prepared. “I don’t want anybody to panic. We need to be calm and once we have our preparedness plan in place everything should be ok. I know for some it will be a little bit costly but it’s better to be prepared than to lament,” ended Guerrero.

All evacuees are hereby reminded that you must have a three day supply of rations that includes: sanitary items, water and food, medicine supplies, flashlights with batteries, your own sleeping items, and so forth. All boat owners are advised to start moving their boats to safe harbor (lagoon side). Finally everyone is asked to stay on the alert and monitor the weather conditions and listen to the weather updates. Furthermore, the Belize Port Authority will inform the public on the closure of all ports.

People in the outer Cayes: Turneffe, Glover’s Reef, Light House, Half-moon Caye, Sand Bore Caye, Northern 2 Caye, North East, South West and Middle Caye and outer Atolls need to heed the warnings issued by NEMO and make necessary preparations to move in land. People who would like to leave voluntarily from the Cayes are encouraged to do so. People living in areas that normally flood need to move to a dry and safe building area and bring along their food and water. The San Pedro Sun will have regular updates as long as weather permits.

Click here to read the rest of the article and see more photos in the San Pedro Sun

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 12:19 PM

Track and aerial at 5AM




Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 01:51 PM

Good morning everyone. Hope you rested well for the long haul today and tonight.

Attached are a few model tracks for TS Ernesto as it approach the coast of southern Yucatan. Ernesto is showing evidence of another flare up this morning and will likely strenghten to hurricane intensity as it makes landfall around mid night tonight. Most of the model tracks concur that Ernesto will make landfall just north of the Chetumal Bay or in the vicinity of Majahual, Quintana Roo, where Cat 5 Hurricane Dean generated a 16 feet surge in August 2007 and devasted the landscape. I remember, because we visited the area the morning after.

Ernesto will likely bring TS force winds over the Corozal District, accompanied by torrential rainfall, a bit more than Dean produced over northern Belize in 2007. Heavy downpours will also spread across the country of Belize, but less concentrated that up north.

Flash floods possible over some areas and folks should be prepared to move to higher grounds if deemed necessary.

RFrutos






Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 03:29 PM

Ernesto closing in on the Yucatan
Jeff Masters

2:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is closing in on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Latest data from the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to its lowest value yet--988 mb at 9:12 am EDT. Top surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 60 - 65 mph range, and the plane found 72 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northeast side of the eye. Ernesto does not have an eyewall, but the Hurricane Hunters noted an eyewall may be the process of forming, from the north to the south-southeast side of the center. Visible and infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is encountering light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The dry air that mixed into Ernesto's core and disrupted it on Monday is no longer apparent on water vapor satellite loops.

Winds at the Yucatan Basin buoy, about 140 miles north of the 10 am EDT position of Ernesto, were sustained at 34 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at 10 am EDT. Winds along the north coast of Honduras have been light the past day, and a personal weather station on Roatan Island off the north coast of Honduras picked up 1.51" of rain from Ernesto as of 10 am EDT. Sporadic heavy rains from Ernesto's outer spiral bands have affected Belize City, Belize most of the morning; these bands can be seen on Belize radar.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto does not have an eyewall, and this will severely limit the storm's chances of rapid intensification until the storm can build one. However, Ernesto is under light wind shear and over warm ocean waters of 29°C with very high heat content, so some modest intensification to a Category 1 hurricane is possible before landfall occurs near midnight tonight near the Belize/Mexico border. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Ernesto. The storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and its winds will probably diminish by 15 - 25 mph. once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. I expect Ernesto will increase its winds by 15 - 25 mph while over the Bay of Campeche, and the storm could be near Category 1 hurricane strength when it makes a second landfall near Veracruz, Mexico.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Sotrm Ernesto, taken at 11:35 am EDT August 6, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 03:46 PM


NEMO Public Advisory # 7

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

TIME: 6:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 17.8N 84.4W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 250 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 13 MPH

Hurricane Warning Red II is in effect for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later tonight.

Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 3-5 inches. These rains are likely to cause dangerous FLASH FLOODS. If you live in an area subjected to flood, NEMO advises you to be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety.

NEMO will be opening shelters in the North for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 12:00 midday. If you are going to Shelters take along FOOD and WATER. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

  • The last vessel will leave San Pedro at 1:30 p.m. The harbour will be closed at 3:00 p.m. Small Craft should seek safe harbour. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea. The swing bridge will be swung at 1:30 p.m.
  • Business Companies and stores should be closed down at 1:00 p.m. today.
  • The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. This morning 176 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees.
  • Areas of concern are: Hattieville, Western Paradise, Belize City, Lord’s Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal. Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including: Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.
  • Persons living in Coastal areas in particular are encouraged to put up shutters. Additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 04:12 PM

Ernesto Approaching Belize and Yucatan
Accuweather

Aug 7, 2012 9:54 AM

Tropical Storm Ernesto is located at 17.8° N, 84.4° W with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, gusting to 75 mph

Ernesto remains a strong tropical storm this morning as it tracks north of Honduras and approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto is packing winds of 65 mph and will slowly strengthen as it continues to move to the west-northwest. Ernesto will maintain this track which will take the storm parallel with the north coast of Honduras affecting the very popular Bay Islands and northern Honduras today. Impacts on Honduras and the Bay Islands will be heavy rainfall mostly along and near coastal Honduras. The higher terrain of Honduras which is much farther inland might get a few hours of heavy rainfall. Still it could rain enough to cause some mudslides, especially in some of the deforested areas.

We still expect Ernesto to move west-northwest tonight and make landfall over Belize as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane during the overnight hours. The storm will weaken as it tracks westward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. The biggest impact across this area will be torrential rainfall. We are expecting a general 4-8 inches of rain over much of Belize, the southern Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala with some localized 12-inch rainfall amounts in the higher terrain. The storm will have an opportunity to move back over water in the southernmost Bay of Campeche late Wednesday and Wednesday night which could sustain the storm for another landfall in southeast Mexico Thursday. Little, if any, restrengthening is expected as the storm crosses the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical waves near 64 west and just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands remain disorganized, and no development is expected in the next 24 hours. However, we will continue to monitor these areas for slow development this week. Another strong tropical wave is projected to move off the coast of Africa late in the week. This system will be a feature to keep an eye on.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Florence will drift westward and pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands Wednesday into Thursday. This system succumbed to cooler water, dry air and shear, the three variables that are the biggest limiting factors in tropical storm formation and development. We do not expect these remnants to reorganize.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Bear

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 05:03 PM

A dab more dry air please to keep this baby disorganized and eyeless, and Ernesto? I'll thank you very much to keep sliding north of us along those new probability lines...
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 06:14 PM

Wow - some amount of rain!
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 06:28 PM


NEMO PRESS RELEASE # 8

 

Shelters that will be open in the Corozal District are as follows:

 

Location

Shelter

Sarteneja

RC School

Chunox

Community Center

Copper Bank

RC School

Progresso

RC School

Consejo

Corozal Community College

Ranchito

Community Center

Calcutta

Community Center

San Andres

Mary Hill RC

Santa Clara

RC School & Escuela Sec. Mexico

San Roman

Escuela Sec. Mexico

San Narciso

RC School

 

 

Shelters that will be open in the Orange Walk District are as follows:

 

Location

Shelter

Orange Walk Town

Immaculada

Louisian

Louisiana Government School

Orange Walk Town

Multi-purpose

Orange Walk Town

St. Peters Anglican School

San Francisco

San Francisco School

Chan Pine Ridge

Chan Pine Risge School

San Pablo

San Pablo Govt School

Trial Farm

Trial Farm School

Yo Creek

Yo Creek Sacred Heart School

Orange Walk Town

ITVET

Dam situation:  There is no threat of flooding from the Dams along the Macal River.  

Fuel:  NEMO hereby advises that all persons needing to refuel their vehicle they need to do so.

 

NEMO advices business companies and store owners in Corozal, Orange Walk, San Pedro and Caye Caulker to be reminded that they must release their staff if they desire to go home and secure their family.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/07/12 07:34 PM

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196/ for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Good story on the hurricane prep in San Pedro in San Pedro Scoop, HERE

Watch live streaming from Corozal at http://www.justin.tv/pjonesbz
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/07/12 07:56 PM

Current Satellite Views







Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/07/12 08:06 PM

Here is a 12:00 pm update for Ernesto. Ernesto is now a Cat I hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The midday Hurrevac trajectory has Hurricane Ernesto making landfall a bit farther north from the earlier track. Ernesto can still strenghten more before making landfall north of Majahual late tonight and early Wednesday. Hurricane force winds exten out to 25 miles from the center most in the north and NE quadrant, while TS force winds extend upto 140 miles or just over 2 degrees of latitude around the center. This means that if Ernesto makes landfall at the projected point, then northern Belize will be on the southern periphery of the TS winds. Gale force winds less than 39 mph will affect other areas to the south of the central Orange Walk district. However, torrential rainfall will sweep across, with total accumulation of some 10-12 inches particularly in the elevated terrain of the Maya Mountain massif, by the time this is all over on Thursday or early Friday. Elsewhere total rainfall will be in the range of 4-8 inches. So, the potential is still there for inundations over northern and central Belize and flash floods in the hilly terrain.

The high resolution IR images attached, indicate very cold cloud tops (white) in the cloud mass which is becoming very structured around the center, with the formation of a major feeder band in the SE quadrant. This is indicative of an intensifying storm.

Compared to Hurricane Dean which was a Cat V hurricane with wind in excess of 155 mph on August 21, 2007, which made land fall a bit farther south than the projected landfall point of hurricane Ernesto, the impact on Belize was confined mostly to the Corozal District and resulted mostly from wind effects. As we can recall, Hurricane Dean did not produced a lot of rainfall over Belize, so the floodind of the Rio Hondo and other tributaries was minimal or non existent. In the case of Ernesto, the rainfall is expected to be much more, hence the possibility of flash floods and inundation in the flood plains of the Rio Hondo and the New River.

Overcast in Belize City, some drizzle, but not much, light breeze.

Have a great afternoon.

RFrutos



Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 09:51 PM

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 10:16 PM


Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan
Jeff Masters

8:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.

Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.


Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.


Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 10:19 PM


Coming in the Royal Palms entrance...lots of gross stuff washing up. Even a aluminum soup pot.


San Pedro Scoop

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/07/12 11:01 PM


(Click image for larger version)

NEMO Public Advisory # 9

HURRICANE ERNESTO

TIME: 3:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 18.8N 86.2W
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 15 MPH

Hurricane Warning Red II is in effect for Belize City Northward to the Mexican Border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southern part of the Country.

Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 3-5 inches. These rains are likely to cause dangerous FLASH FLOODS.

NEMO hereby relaxes the order on restaurants and grocery shops in the Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Ernesto.

Posted By: joev

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:09 AM

These shots are great. We just spent a couple of weeks at the Pelican Reef and then the Xanadu. We made lots of friends with the staff and other locals. If you can please post/send shots of the Pelican and Xanadu. Or Marina's store. We spent many a day biking up and done the road into San Pedro to and from the hotels.

We hope you are all safe!!
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:14 AM

Satellite view and track for Hurricane Ernesto at 6pm Belize time today





Water higher.... wind now about 20-25 mph..

San Pedro Scoop

Just rain to this point. Very little storm surge so far.


Photos: San Pedro braces for Hurricane Ernesto

With Tropical Storm Ernesto upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane status, preparations continued into Tuesday on La Isla Bonita...

San Pedro Sun


Photos: Portofino Resort

Posted By: Chica Blanca

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:54 AM

Welcome to dinner Hurricane Ernesto. Tonight we are having carnitas tacos with guacamole. The dogs have had their bath and are sleeping inside being quiet. So far just high surge and the winds have started. Stayed tuned for a video of the waves.
Basil Jones, North Ambergris Caye

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:54 AM




Here are high res images and the Hurrevac track of Ernesto. Also attached is the 250km radar loop. Landfall is expected within the next 3- 6 hours. Of interest is a jag to the W'S (260 deg) of the track of the center of Ernesto from the 3:00 pm positon. At this point Ernesto can only make landfall along or just south of 18.7N, the present latitude of Ernesto. This will bring TS force winds farther south into northern Belize. So we cannot let down the guard. People in the north should therefore be prepared for an increase in winds upon and just after landfall tonight. The rainfall projection still holds. Accumultions of 4-8 inches possible over some parts of Belize with higher amounts of up to 10-12 inches in the hilly terrain, before this is all over. We must therefore watch for any further shift of the center closer to Chetumal at landfall.

RFrutos


6:30pm... relatively quiet...light rain...light winds. The reef is taking a beating but all fine on land. We've had about 3 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. It's downright chilly out. 79!

Everything is good. We have blustery wind. The sea is up high and I think the beaches and docks will suffer some damage, but the hurricane will miss us, but will hit north of us. So, we need to think of our close neighbours north and hope that they are OK and well prepared. Ernesto is not strong, but a very timely reminder of what may be to come.

9:30pm.... Winds now gusting to 30-35 mph...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 05:14 AM



Well, hurricane Ernesto about to make landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan peninsula with 85 mph winds, at a location some 49 miles ENE (065deg) of Corozal Town, and 57 miles N'E (018 deg) Most of the heavy convection is still offshore.

However...imagery from the Belize radar indicate the hurricane had a well-defined 15-nmi diameter eye earlier this evening...but the eye has become a little ragged over the past couple of hours.

...Belize radar indicates Ernesto has made landfall along the southern Yucatan coast...

At 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...data from the Belize radar indicate Hurricane Ernesto made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near mahahual Mexico as a category 1 hurricane.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 05:25 AM


Ernesto Pics aboard Coastal Xpress, plus latest track

After evacuation of US Tourist, here's some pics back to town in serious Ernesto weather

MORE PHOTOS


Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 05:50 AM


PHOTOS: Effects of Ernesto, San Pedro Sun

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.453498404684775.108837.246187688749182&type=1
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 12:34 PM

Hurricane Ernesto Spares Belize, Slams Mexico

Hurricane Ernesto has spared Belize - the category one storm is expected to make landfall at Mahahual on the Southeastern Coast of Mexico - about 43 miles northeast of Chetumal in the next few hours with winds of 85 miles per hour.

Only minimal impacts are expected in northern Belize as the strongest winds are concentrated north of the eye - which will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. The strongest effects are currently being felt in San Pedro where that town is presently reporting a storm surge of two feet presently

So we're not at the all clear yet; not nearly. At 6:00 pm, the storm was moving west north west at 18 miles per hour and is currently 65 miles east of Chetumal with hurricane force winds extending 45miles out.

According to our calculations it is 80 miles northeast of San Pedro - so they should be experiencing Tropical Storm Force winds. It is 100 miles northeast of Belize.

Our news team was in Corozal today - and we'll have the story on what has been happening there a little later on.

But since noon today - most of the country has been at a standstill - after an extraordinary declaration by NEMO. The advisory sent at 8:30 am said, quote, "Business Companies and stores should be closed down at 1:00 p.m. today." It did not specify what part of the country it applied to, the memo just gave the order that everything should close down - so from Corozal to Toledo - the country went into a kind of Hurricane Holiday.

Sure, they needed the extra time in Corozal, but in Toledo? Probably not at all.

But that's how it been, most of the country like Albert Street in Belize City has been shuttered down all afternoon. Stay tuned for more on Hurricane Ernesto coming up later in the news.

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 12:36 PM

Storm Seasoned Residents of Corozal Get Ready For Ernesto

Right now Corozal should be experiencing the first hints of Tropical Storm force winds - but the mayor told is just now its overcast, drizzling and there's only a slight breeze.

Hurricane Ernesto is headed for Mahahual - northeast of Chetumal, but the closest point to that in Belize is Corozal, so as the storm approaches land, Corozal town and outlying communities continue to vigilantly monitor its progress and weigh what their next move should be - that is, if they need to make any moves as all.

7News went to Corozal to see just how seriously the residents were taking the storm.

Here's what we found out:

Daniel Ortiz reporting
Hurricane Ernesto is currently projected to pass over Southern most areas of Mexico, but the entire district of Corozal is taking no chances.

The Residents were busy securing their homes in the event that the storm makes an unexpected shift.

Mayor Hilberto Campus - Vice-Chair, NEMO Corozal
"The municipality, the town council itself has its own emergency plan that is already in effect. You can see that the town hall is fully secure from early this morning. The employees have been release to take care of their homes. In general we have been warning the people to keep an eye - a close look at the storm. We have been monitoring - we had a meeting this morning at 10am and basically the biggest challenge would be the district itself - the areas of Sarteneja, Copper Bank, Chunnox, Consejo which are the flood prone areas. All our committees and all the different groups are in full action and are ready and aware, it's just a matter of waiting and see the direction of the storm and how quickly we would have to evacuate certain areas."

Daniel Ortiz
"Sir, what sort of plan of action you guys have for those areas you spoke about which are prone to flooding?"

Mayor Hilberto Campus - Vice-Chair, NEMO Corozal
"Well we have like I mention all the different committees are in action and full awareness. We have the different transportation committee that would be taking care of the transportation of these people that will be affected, again like I mention Sarteneja is one of the areas that we are mostly looking at. Different areas that will be required to allocate people - to evacuate people - shelters will be open, transportation and all the different committees are in place and again it's just a matter of time. As you can see it's barely raining here in Corozal. However we are keeping a close eye and look at the direction that this storm will be taken. The way we see it any direction it takes, it will be affecting those specific areas."

Willard Levy - District Coordinator, NEMO Corozal
"At this moment all we are trying to do is make sure that we have our shelters ready. In terms of the shelter - we have 11 shelters that will be open at 2pm. These shelters are focused more into the coastal areas and the flood prone areas, for example, we have Sarteneja, Chunnox, Copper Bank, Progresso and in inland we have Ranchito, Calcutta, San Narciso, San Roman and Libertad. Those areas are flood prone, apart from Corozal Town which has some low laying areas which are flood prone. So those are the areas we are focus more into getting people into a safer place."

Because the location of the storm, its strength, and its behavior, the officials are more concerned about the rain and flooding, than the wind.

Mayor Hilberto Campus - Vice-Chair, NEMO Corozal
"The way and the direction it is going it doesn't seem like the breeze will be our problem but the amount of rainfall that will be coming along or behind this storm - even the storm will be passing north of Chetumal which will be by Mahahual if the path continues the amount of rainfall that will be coming or the different things that will be affecting will be basically the flooding."

Willard Levy - District Coordinator, NEMO Corozal
"Corozal is the only district that is still in the woods in respect of the storm. However we are noticing the projected path that it is moving and it is climbing gradually which gives us a little relief even though we cannot underestimate the storm, it can always make a down turn. But even so if it continues its path we are still going to get a little impact of tropical storm winds maybe not as hard but it's something that will be probably effected to some people. It's more or less a tropical storm situation that we are looking at."

With All the preparations that NEMO is making, are the people truly concerned?

Daniel Ortiz
"Based on your interactions with the members of the Corozal community, did they give you the sense that they are taking this storm seriously?"

Mayor Hilberto Campus - Vice-Chair, NEMO Corozal
"Most definitely, here in Corozal Town itself it's not as bad as the different areas of the villages like I mention. But people in Corozal Town are well prepared. There are certain areas that will be requiring evacuation in case of flooding, but it's minimal."

"The biggest challenge is the district itself, the villages like I mention. I keep mentioning Sarteneja, so it's very important for these people to be well aware of the situation and in the need of leaving the villages then they will be required to do so and we will be required to allocate these people."

Daniel Ortiz
"I know that you probably have a couple of members of NEMO on the ground and surveying the situation, how has your interaction been with the community of Corozal? Are they taking this storm seriously?"

Willard Levy - District Coordinator, NEMO Corozal
"Not in terms of seriously but we have a few people that are starting to get ready. We made announcements from yesterday after we activate it to start to get ready, prepare yourselves for this storm that is coming on. It's a thing that people just look on. They are monitoring the progress of the storm and today people are well verse on the movement of the storm. They listen to NEMO but you have some other people that really need the assistance and those are the ones that we are more focusing to assist."

"In an overview, people are getting ready on a timely basis. They are doing their own purchasing They are doing their own securing of their houses and everything but on a slow pace. But they are doing it gradually."

As a part of its preparation, NEMO sent out a directive that all businesses in Corozal must close to allow employees to secure their homes and families.

It is hard to tell if it is because of the forecasts for Ernesto, or the usual misplaced excitement in the hurricane season, but the owners of the Princess Hotel and Casino adjoining the freezone refused to comply with the order.

Reliable reports to 7News are that this is serial behavior of lack of cooperation from this establishment. Sure enough, Corozal police were dispatched to force them to comply.

But if the calm of the Corozal Bay is any indication, they will be able to resume business tomorrow without incident.

NEMO Corozal opened several hurricane shelters, but up until 3 p.m. when our news team left, no one had taken refuge. We just called him again - and he informs us that five families have taken shelter.

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 12:37 PM

Ernesto Forces Tourists To Cut Vacay Short

For the outlying islands NEMO encouraged a non-mandatory evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker for residents who were concerned about their safety.

That didn't amount to too many folks because - storm seasoned as we all are - most people wait for the storm's last shift to make a decision.

But we did catch up with a few tourists who cut their Vacations short. Here's what they told us at the water taxi terminal today:..

Tourist #1
"We just ask the lady who was managing the place we were at and we talk. We went to the police station - they had information there and they said that some type of NEMO meeting that was supposed to happen last night. Then this morning was when the whole evacuation happens. Nobody knock on our door, we already knew we were going to leave early. The lady next to us on Caye Caulker - she was nice enough to come by and told us that we should leave because the last ferry is leaving at 1 o' clock. The locals knew what was going on."

Geovanni Brackett, reporter
"How will this impact your vacation?"

Tourist #1
"It will cut short by 2 days."

Tourist #2
"We were here for 2 days and hear that the hurricane is coming soon, so as you can see we ran away because we are afraid."

Amy Binstead, tourist
"It's really hectic getting off the island and there was like a queue of people down at the pier fighting to get onboard, some pushing and then one of the boat broke down and so we were loaded on to another boat."

Geovanni Brackett, reporter
"Did the notice of an intended storm have any scare or any frightening impact on you all?"

Amy Binstead, tourist
"The locals were really calm about it. They were saying don't worry, like don't let it scare you, it's exciting, you should stay but we like probably if we got an option we would choose not to be in a hurricane."

Geovanni Brackett, reporter
"The evacuation process - was it organized enough for you all?"

Amy Binstead, tourist
"No, we didn't really know what was going on and it was just kind of stand there and wait for them to tell you which boat to get on and the we would get on it and they were like 'you're not going on this boat now, get back off, you're going on that boat.' So yeah, not particularly organized."

It was a non-mandatory evacuation, so busses were not waiting to take persons to higher ground.

We'll have more on the hurricane later on in the news.

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:33 PM

VIDEO: Hurricane Ernesto in San Pedro


San Pedro Prepares

San Pedro preps as evacuations are underway. Ambergris Caye, Belize


Belize Coast Guard

Belize Coast Guard aboard " The 370 Justice" standby on alert in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye




Coastal Xpress Last Run To Town

Final Private Run of the Coastal Xpress From North back South to San Pedro, here's a look a the ride.




U.S. Tourist Evacuation From North AmbergrisCaye

Safety of our island guests.




San Pedro residents evacuate inland while others move to shelters

Close to a thousand residents and tourists evacuated the island of Ambergris Caye today, a majority of whom left San Pedro Town by noon to seek shelter on mainland Belize.  Water taxis ferried passengers from San Pedro and Caye Caulker to Belize City as Tropical Storm Ernesto, later upgraded to a category one hurricane, made its way north towards the Yucatan Peninsula.  While hundreds fled during the exodus this morning, the island-based arm of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) wasted no time conducting preliminary assessments of the island prior to the passage of the weather system.  Minister of Tourism Manuel Heredia, a member of the NEMO committee, as well as Daniel Guerrero, Mayor of San Pedro, embarked on a brief tour along with several councilors before effecting a curfew which begins at ten o’clock tonight.

Manuel Heredia Jr., Minister of Tourism, Member of NEMO Committee

“The purpose of the tour is to assess how everything is at the moment so that at the end of the weather we can identify exactly what went wrong, what happened. And that is what here and the councilors and myself decide to do at this point. We have seen at the beach a little early that there has been quite a bit of erosion. We have taken some precaution as from yesterday with the boats, travelling from twelve today, the bars were asked to close; no alcohol is being sold at the moment. And tonight at ten, everybody is asked to stay off the street. Anyone that doesn’t have a valid reason to be on the street will be picked up and taken to the station until tomorrow.”

Jorge Aldana

“Mister Mayor over a thousand persons evacuated; do you think that the island is ready for whatever might happen between six o’clock and six tomorrow morning?”

Daniel Guerrero, Mayor of San Pedro

“Yes I think so because the hurricane is category one and the island is prepared. The people have been advised; we have been working and the NEMO has been cooperating and advice has been coming out since yesterday and I see people really cooperating on both of our… people have been calling with concerns on this or the other. People are cooperating with NEMO and the council.”

Jorge Aldana

“So would you say that the necessary preparations were made in terms of people protecting their lives and property?”

Daniel Guerrero

“Yes, yes. I see a lot of people boarding out their houses, taking care of their vehicles, boats. Everything, I think people are prepared.”

Five shelters were opened at two p.m.—the San Pedro High School, the New Horizon, the Evangelical Church, the Living Word and the Shalom Adventist.

Channel 5

Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:58 PM

Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds
Jeff Masters

12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 01:59 PM

NEMO Public Advisory # 10A
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO


TIME: 6:00 A.M.
LOCATION: 18.8N 89.8W
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST 97 MILES OF COROZAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 15 MPH

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Belize City to the Mexican Border including San Pedro, and Caye Caulker, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts.

NEMO has declared an “ALL CLEAR” for the Southern part of the country from the Toledo Districts up to and including Belize City.

The Phillip Goldson International Airport and all other Municipal airstrips remain operational, except for Corozal, Sarteneja, San Pedro, Caye Caulker and Tower Hill Municipal airstrips which are closed until further notice.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 02:05 PM

Pics from this morning.....

[Linked Image]

5.45am...rainy and WINDIER than last night. No power ever lost during the night.

CLICK FOR MORE PICS from San Pedro Scoop
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 02:37 PM

Heavy rain and very strong wind right now. Coming in from ESE.
Not safe to go outside - drat, am getting cabin fever.
Posted By: shuffles

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 03:04 PM

I'm with you Diane.....
Posted By: captjeff

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 03:20 PM


STAY WELL GUYS .ALL THE BEST WISHES
HOPE THIS IS THE LAST OF THE STORMS ?
Posted By: Bear

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 03:30 PM

I'd like to thank the healthy turtle grass beds for saving the shoreline at our place...and Jeff? I wish...sea/conditions are still conducive and plenty warm out off of Africa and Cape Verde, in other words mother nature is plenty pregnant with tropical deprsession babies waiting to be born...I hope you got plenty of those C notes pal, me thinks that witchy woman of yours might be in for a bump in quarterly profits...
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 03:39 PM

Went outside for a look-see ---- winds are liable to knock down those who forgot to eat a heavy dinner!

Posted By: Judyann H.

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 04:01 PM

My little Chihuahua went out for her morning business....Thank goodness the Mister had her on a leash....At this point she's nothing more than a kite....
Posted By: Bear

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 05:14 PM

Hmmm....flying your chiuahua, a new post hurricane sport...old soccer field in say 20? Oh BTW Can I borrow yours? Mine seems to have flown the coop
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 05:46 PM

NEMO Public Advisory # 12
10:30am

NEMO has declared an “ALL CLEAR” for the entire country of Belize.

NEMO advises people in the North to be cautious as they may experience some gusty winds with showers.

Small Craft Warning: All boats must remain in harbor as sea conditions at this time are very rough. All mariners are asked to heed this warning. Water Taxi runs are delayed until midday today.
Posted By: Chris

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 06:03 PM

http://thepelicanteam.blogspot.com/ for a couple of Ernesto videos. Owner of the catamaran must be very good with his lines!
Posted By: Judyann H.

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by Bear
Hmmm....flying your chiuahua, a new post hurricane sport...old soccer field in say 20? Oh BTW Can I borrow yours? Mine seems to have flown the coop
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 07:22 PM

NEMO Public Advisory # 12A

NEMO advises people in the North of Belize, San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts to be cautious as they may experience some gusty winds with showers.

Small Craft Warning: All boats must remain in harbor as sea condition at this time is very rough. All mariners are asked to heed this warning. Water Taxi and Small Craft runs are delayed until further notice.
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 08:05 PM

Any time-stamp on that ?
Wondering about boats on the water.
Posted By: shuffles

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/08/12 09:25 PM

According to everything I've seen boats are not to be out on the water yet
Posted By: BeBelize

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by shuffles
According to everything I've seen boats are not to be out on the water yet


I've seen a few private boats out and about this afternoon.
Posted By: megcduvall

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 04:03 AM

My husband and I are traveling to Ambergris Caye next Wednesday. What does the island look like right now? Should we be concerned about things not being up/open/running? We have not had a vacation together in 3+ years so I would like to make sure that we are going to have a phenomenal time. Please help! smile
Posted By: ScubaLdy

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 04:20 AM

By next Wednesday you will not be able to tell we had any kind of storm here. Everything will be open and will welcome you.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 12:50 PM

Ernesto Blew Over

Where is Hurricane Ernesto? That's what everyone was asking last night when - get this - the National Hurricane Center seems to have gotten a little confused about the storm. Their Hurricane Hunter was having technical difficulties and they were relying on Belize radar.

Nothing wrong with that, but - according to a discussion post on their official website - they seem to have mixed up the coordinates of the storm; meaning, that when they said the storm was over Banco Chinchorro at 9 pm, it was really making landfall just north of Mahahual.

If you're shaking your head - we were too at 9:00 pm - as we tried to reconcile the difference between the coordinate points on the radar and the geographic location that was being discussed by the Hurricane Center.

But, no matter the discrepancy Monica Bodden was on the ground in Corozal throughout - and she has this report of what was largely an unremarkable night where they ended up watching the storm because there was none to chase:

Monica Bodden Reporting

Hurricane Ernesto had its eye on the Northern Town of Corozal and residents weren't taking anything for granted.

The town resembled a proverbial Ghost Town as the raindrops glistened in the yellow glow of the street lights.

Shops were shuttered and streets were empty - devoid of any sign of life.

Mayor Hilberto Campus - Vice-Chair, NEMO Corozal
"From the moment we saw the storm - the Corozal Town Council has its own emergency plan in place, and from there onward, we have been working with NEMO. I am the Vice-Chair of NEMO. We have been monitoring the system. We've been keeping the people well informed. We have quite an amount of experience when it comes to these storms, and we have been dealing with it for seven years. Fortunately for us, the storm has kind of spared us. The Corozal Town, speaking on behalf of Corozal Town as Mayor, most of the people have been prepared for this storm, and the ones who couldn't make it, we'll be here until late at night. Any last minute emergencies, anybody who needs to be evacuated, we're here to serve."

16 shelters were opened in the Corozal district - over 300 hundred shelteree's occupied those shelters by 8 last night.

Willard Levy - District Coordinator, NEMO Corozal
"We started this morning with about 11 of them. Those are shelters that we focused basically on the coastal and flood-prone areas. After that, we started to then open shelters as the need arose. It's approximately about 16 shelters that we've opened. We have about 314 shelterees up to now, and every hour, we are monitoring and finding out if there is any increase in shelterees. But at this point, that is the position. Now, as to the different shelters, it's basically the coastal area is Sarteneja, Chunux, Copper Bank, Progresso, Consejo - well Consejo does not have a shelter, but what we do is if people want to move from there, we'll take them over to CCC. We have made our attempts to evacuate them, but nobody has decided to move, considering that they were only looking at rains and a little breeze. So they didn't find the need to evacuate actually. Inland, We have San Narcisio, Santa Clara, San Roman, Louisville, Patchakan, Xaibe and other areas are gradually - as the rains progress - they request for shelter, so we give them the shelter as we need it."

Monica Bodden
"Right now, we are in the Miami Beach area in Corozal Town. It's a little bit after 8 o'clock tonight. As you can see, the winds are really picking up. It's about 40 miles per hour winds that we are experiencing out this side."

The waters of the Corozal Bay rolled back as if inhaled into the nostrils of an unseen giant. Huge raindrops pelted everything in its path - as trees swayed trying to hold their own against the ravages of the strong winds.

Approximately at 9 o'clock-Hurricane Ernesto made landfall on the southern coast of the Yucatan peninsula as a Category One hurricane. Nature was at war and the signs were visible in the fallen tree branches and flooded streets - as well as in the eerie blanket of grey that settled over the town.

Willard Levy
"All that people should expect is what people are experiencing now, the increase of rain, and as to the wind strength, we should not be expecting any more increases - probably a few miles per hour more, right. It is making landfall right now, so if anything, we will be getting slight tropical storm winds. In terms of flood-prone areas, we have Libertad, Santa Clara, San Roman, certain areas in Corozal Town - these are all low-lying areas, and these are the people who we are concerned about, and are trying to make sure that they go over to the shelters. So basically, those are the low lying areas that we have. We have other areas, but they are not flood prone, not as much as we are focused on."

The eye of Ernesto is forecast to move across the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Wednesday and emerge over the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

And despite its gloomy appearance, Corozal Town was spared the full wrath of Hurricane Ernesto.

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 01:31 PM


VIDEO: Caribbean Villas Hotel- Ernesto Views

A look at the stormy conditions Ernesto brought to the island.


VIDEO: Ernesto Tropic Air- Final Evac Departures

Final evac flights leaving San Pedro in prep for Ernesto

Looking Back On Ernesto- La Perla Del Caribe

Aboard Coastal Xpress our crew heads north to La Perla to prep for Hurricane Ernesto. Here's a look at the morning of Aug.7, 2012.

Caribbean Villas Hotel- Ernesto Views

A look at the stormy conditions Ernesto brought to the island.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 03:03 PM

Ambergris Caye after Ernesto

By: Diane Campbell

Yesterday was very windy and rainy throughout the morning.
Weather started to clear up in the afternoon.

Still breezy today, seas choppy.

A little shore erosion and some messy yards, but no other damage to report in this area.

SP Airstrip opened yesterday around noon. Some boats are back on the water.
Today will be a lot of unpacking and unboarding for everybody.

To tourists and guests in times like this --- we really appreciate your support, your patience, your enthusiasm for our island. Please also understand that the day after a storm the water is too murky for snorkeling and the people are kind of busy putting homes back together ....... employees may be scattered around the country due to having gone "home" to secure family properties so many businesses may have only half-staff. We aways do our best to host visitors and we ask for your consideration as we transition quickly from emergency to business as normal.

Many thanks from Ambergris Caye
Posted By: megcduvall

Re: Hurricane Ernesto - 08/09/12 03:20 PM

Thank you!
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