AmbergrisCaye.com Home

TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean

Posted By: Marty

TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/15/13 10:44 AM

Tropics Still Quiet Through The Weekend
Accuweather

6/15/2013 8:46:25 PM

Though there is no development expected in the next 48 hours, some features do bear watching the next few days.

A large tropical wave currently between 85 and 75 West and 10 and 20 North is looking to bring some showers to the coastline of Nicaragua and northern Panama and even into parts of Jamaica. Though this was being shown to develop on some models the past few days, most models are showing too much shear from a front over Florida and the northern Gulf along with some dry air interacting with the systems to allow development. This wave should continue to push westward and eventually bring some stronger rainfall to parts of the Yucatan and southern Mexico. Another weak tropical wave is near 50 West south of 10 North. With the ITCZ and the system so far south, development is not expected here with this system.

Otherwise, the rest of the tropics are looking quiet.

Tropical Atlantic: Monitoring Waters Near Mexico

While no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Basin through this weekend, a system may try to organize in the vicinity of southern Mexico and Central America later next week.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "A sprawling area of dry air, associated with high pressure and strong westerly winds above the surface, will deter tropical development over the Atlantic Ocean through this weekend and into next week."

Westward-moving features, known as tropical waves, will continue to move along in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

In order for any of these to develop, the strong westerly winds aloft, known as wind shear, would have to drop off.

RELATED:
AccuWeather.com 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
AccuWeather Live: The Start of Hurricane Season
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center

There has been and continues to be some indication that a tropical wave could organize a bit in the swath from along the west coast of the Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later next week, Kottlowski stated.

"The wind shear would have to decrease; otherwise, the feature would remain relatively weak in terms of tropical development," according to Kottlowski.

This region is a favored area for tropical development during June.

Steering winds expected later next week would generally likely take any feature in this area slowly toward the northeastern coast of Mexico.

There is a possibility of torrential showers and locally gusty thunderstorms in this region starting later next week, even if the system were to remain weak or fails to organize.

Communities and travel interests in the region should be prepared for the chance of flooding and mudslides.

It is a bit too early to say whether or not any of that rainfall would reach farther north, into parts of Texas. Steering winds would likely keep this particular system south of Florida and the upper Gulf Coast.

See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Invest 93 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/15/13 11:14 PM

Quick Update On Southwestern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance:

Crown Weather Services
Saturday, June 15, 2013 810 pm EDT/710 pm CDT

I wanted to post a quick update to alert all of you regarding an area of disturbed weather that has developed in the southwestern Caribbean which is associated with a tropical wave tracking westward. This tropical disturbance is expected to track west-northwestward and be located very near the coasts of Belize and Honduras by Monday. From there, this system is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and then inland just south of Tampico, Mexico by around Friday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development. The only thing that is likely to stop development is this disturbance’s proximity to land. The best chance for this system to develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm is when its in the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday and Thursday before it moves inland just south of Tampico.

It should be pointed out that the convection looks fairly organized and robust on satellite and that the amount of vorticity (defined as amount of spin) associated with this disturbance has increased. I will be monitoring this disturbance closely over the next few days and will keep you all updated.

At the very least, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides across Belize and northern Honduras starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides are then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

I will have a full discussion on this tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean on Sunday morning.

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Wave Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/15/13 11:57 PM

[Linked Image] The tropical wave is now approaching Belize. Should reach here tomorrow morning. Once over Belize the wave may slow down and produce several days of rainy weather. This may be the last good rain for several weeks because the air behind this wave is quite dry all the way to Africa. I am predicting 2 to 3 inches from this wave over a period of 3 days.

Don Thompson in Belmopan
http://donbzwxnews.blogspot.com/
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Wave Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/16/13 10:46 AM

Tropical Disturbance In The Southwestern Caribbean May Develop Into A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm As It Tracks Across The Northwestern Caribbean & The Bay Of Campeche This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Sunday, June 16, 2013 7:02 am

A tropical disturbance which seems to be developing a broad area of low pressure with it is located over the southwestern Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deep convection firing near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua just north of where this low pressure system is located. It is of my opinion that we may see this low pressure system reform much closer to the deep convection as we head through the day today.

Currently, environmental conditions aren’t exactly favorable for development with wind shear values running at 20 to 40 knots over this system. It should be pointed out that wind shear values decrease to less than 20 knots as you near the Yucatan Peninsula and this is where this disturbance is headed over the next couple of days. I expect that we will see this system track to a position near the coast of Belize by late Monday. From there, this tropical disturbance is forecast to track into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The best shot that this disturbance has to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is when it is tracking across the Bay of Campeche towards the central coast of Mexico where environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable. Additionally, this disturbance may take advantage of the shape and the topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche and try and spin up. This is something that has happened many times before with other tropical storms. The most likely timeframe for this to happen will be between Wednesday morning and Friday morning when it is expected to track inland into central Mexico just south of Tampico.

A couple of thoughts here: First is that we should keep an eye on an upper level trough of low pressure that is located near Bermuda and how far north this trough pulls this disturbance. It is expected that this trough of low pressure will pull out to the northeast and be replaced by high pressure by late Monday. Once this happens then this disturbance will be pushed back to the west.

Second thought is that even though none of the forecast guidance develops this disturbance, it should not be written off or discounted. It would not shock me to see this disturbance develop into a tropical storm when it’s in the Bay of Campeche between Wednesday and Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable and add in the curvature and topography of the coastline along the Bay of Campeche, a system could spin up rather quickly.

Finally, this disturbance whether it develops or not is of no threat at all to the United States coastline. A strong area of high pressure over the southern United States will prevent this system from tracking northward and push it westward towards central Mexico late this week.

This disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras starting later today and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday morning.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Posted By: Marty

Re: Invest 93 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/16/13 02:45 PM

Tropical Disturbance In Southwest Caribbean Now Invest 93-L:

The tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean has been designated Invest 93-L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery this morning continues to show some increase in thunderstorm intensity associated with this system and development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is a distinct possibility before it tracks into Belize late Monday. Should it not become a tropical cyclone before moving into Belize, I think it stands a better shot of becoming a tropical storm when its in the Bay of Campeche from Wednesday to Friday.

It should be noted that a reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon to see if it has become a tropical cyclone; so, stay tuned.

As I mentioned earlier this morning, Invest 93-L is expected to bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras starting later today and continuing through Monday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Invest 93-L Information:




Posted By: Marty

Re: Invest 93 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 10:20 AM

Invest 93-L Will Track Across Belize Later Today & Will Emerge In The Bay Of Campeche By Tuesday Night; Development Into A Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Quite Possible While It’s In The Bay Of Campeche Wednesday & Thursday:

Monday, June 17, 2013 520 am EDT/420 am CDT

Invest 93-L, which is a fairly robust tropical disturbance was located just a few miles offshore of the northern coast of Honduras early this morning. Satellite imagery showed quite a bit of thunderstorm activity associated with this disturbance and radar loops from Belize indicate that heavy rain is approaching from the east and I do expect heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding and mudslides across northern Honduras and Belize from today through tonight and into Tuesday.

Invest 93-L is forecast to track west-northwestward and move across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula from this afternoon through Tuesday before emerging into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night. This is where development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm seems quite possible as environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable with low wind shear and plenty warm ocean waters. Additionally, the shape of the coast around the Bay of Campeche seems to aid in the development of tropical cyclones.

None of the latest forecast guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone. The likely reason for this is that many of the forecast guidance members keeps Invest 93-L inland over southern Mexico and never forecasts it to emerge into the Bay of Campeche. As I mentioned yesterday, once this system makes it to the Bay of Campeche, I think a quick spin up into a tropical storm is quite possible and something that needs to be monitored closely.

A high pressure ridge across the southern United States will prevent Invest 93-L from tracking northward and instead push it west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday & Thursday for a landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico during Friday.

Invest 93-L will bring heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding and mudslides to Belize and northern Honduras from today through tonight and into part of the day Tuesday. Heavy rain with flash flooding and mudslides is then likely across central and southern Mexico starting in southern Mexico on Tuesday and spreading into central Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday.

Finally, the next chance for tropical development still looks to be from the last weekend in June through the first week of July as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation contributes to the formation of thunderstorm activity, lowering barometric pressures and potential development in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next week or two and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday morning.

See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.

Invest 93-L Information:





Tropical Interest in the Western Caribbean

A tropical wave moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula through early this week will be monitored for possible development. The focus will shift to the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek.

The tropical wave will be responsible for torrential rainfall from northern Nicaragua to northern Honduras through Monday morning. Tropical downpours can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time. The rainfall can lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the region.

Interaction with land is expected to inhibit development before it reaches the Yucatan Monday afternoon. Though plenty of warm water is available to the system to encourage organization.

RELATED:
Hurricane Center 2013
Hurricane Satellite Maps
2013 AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast

Heavy rain will shift into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday unleashing torrential downpours across Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rain will persist across these areas through at least Tuesday.

The tropical wave will settle into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The wave will usher in a plume of high tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico which will heighten the potential for tropical development.

"There is a slight chance the system can reorganize over the southern Bay of Campeche," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "However, increasing wind shear, an inhibitor to tropical development, and its proximity to land will limit its chances for development."

Beyond Wednesday, any tropical rains should move west into Mexico.

"No impacts are expected to be felt in the U.S. from this feature," Samuhel said.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Invest 93 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 02:51 PM

Invest 93L has become a tropical depression as of 11 am this morning.

Tropical Depression 2 is expected to track across Belize this afternoon and tonight before moving into the Bay of Campeche by late Tuesday night.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 02:52 PM

NEMO ADVISORY No. 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS APPROACHING COAST OF BELIZE

LOCATION...16.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE

AT 0900 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BOOM CREEK ROAD IN THE TOLEDO DISTRICT IS UNDER 4 FEET OF WATER AND IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS BELIZE. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNERD TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 04:49 PM

tracking map....

[Linked Image]

Intensity forecast
[Linked Image]

Belize Weather (Hydromet)

Tropical depression#2 formed this morning.At 9:00am the center of the system was near 16.2°N and 87.6°W or about 60mls east of Monkey River Town.Maximum sustained winds were near 35mph.The system is heading west northwest at 35mph.Little change in strength is expected before the system makes landfall today and tonight. However, some development is possible if the system emerges over the Bay of Campeche later on Tuesday.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 04:55 PM

USA National Weather Service Forecast

11:00 am EDT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression 2 is located at 16.2 N, -87.6 W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph

...Tropical depression forms...
...Approaching coast of Belize...

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Belize...Guatemala...and eastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 87.6 west. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of the depression will move inland over southern Belize this afternoon. The depression could emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Some weakening is expected as the depression moves over land later today and tonight. Some increase in strength is possible on Tuesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

the depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of Belize...Guatemala... northern Honduras and the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash flooding...especially in mountainous areas.

gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible along portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.

High-resolution visible satellite images show a low-level circulation has formed in association with the tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system also has organized deep convection associated with the center. Therefore the system has developed into a tropical depression. Surface observations support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The center is nearing the coast of Belize and the cyclone will have very little time for intensification prior to landfall. Some intensification is likely if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday as indicated by the NHC forecast track. The official intensity forecast is close to the decay-SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/11. Dynamical models show an east-West Ridge over the northern Gulf that weakens somewhat in a couple of days. This should lead to some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period. The official forecast is on the northern side of the guidance suite and fairly close to the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall which could cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and eastern Mexico.

New Depression Approaching Belize
Accuweather

Jun 17, 2013 11:59 AM

A tropical wave that we have been tracking across the Caribbean for the last few days has gained a circulation and is now classified as Tropical Depression 2. The center of the depression will move into Belize this afternoon. While no significant strengthening will occur before the center moves ashore, if it becomes any stronger it would be a tropical storm and be named Barry. The main impact of the depression will be heavy rainfall over Belize as well as portions of Mexico and Guatemala that will lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

Once ashore, the depression will remain weak and could even dissipate, but it more likely will just continue to generate heavy rainfall. By tomorrow afternoon, the center will likely move over the Bay of Campeche. This would give the depression an opportunity to strengthen again. It will have its best chance to become a named system once in this area. From there, this system will move into eastern Mexico and bring locally strong wind and very heavy rainfall that can again cause flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Depression Two Forms Near Belize
Jeff Masters

3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the extreme Southwest Caribbean, about 60 miles east of the coast of Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The center of circulation will be over water for about 4 - 6 hours today, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be enough time for the storm to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds. Satellite loops show that the system is well-organized, has plenty of spin, has good upper-level outflow to the north, and has a large of amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal converge. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C. The Hurricane Hunter mission for Monday has been canceled, as the storm will be ashore by the time they reach it.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2.

Forecast for TD 2
TD 2 will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday, and may emerge into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--on Tuesday night or Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the center of TD 2 ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Thursday. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate through Wednesday. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so I expect this storm will become a tropical storm if its center moves over water in the Bay of Campeche. The center may remain just inland, though, keeping the storm from developing. There is no indication from the models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's rainfall confined to Mexico.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 05:05 PM

Navy Track...

[Linked Image]

From Hugh in Belmopan:

By and large, the rain has not been all that heavy, just persistent.

In Belmopan, we had a brief period of stronger wind from the north, blew fine rain spray into windows normally not effected.

I have flown a Cessna 150 in 30 - 35 mph winds, so should not cause any problem flying in to Belize city tomorrow.

Could well still have rain Tuesday, possibly still some into Wed.

=====

from another friend....

I'm not in Belize City but i heard there is already a bit of flooding in some areas.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 07:15 PM

more from Hugh in Belmopan....

Been out around Belmopan the last two hours.. . . .Still raining, but as long as you are not in it for more than 5-10 mins, you don't get particularly wet, so not heavy.

Been checking the wind, I estimate 15 - 20 mph Beaufort number 4 - 5. . . . ..

From the Wunderground chart, ( Not updated since 09am BZT) This TD2 should be right on top of us about now.

But wind still from the NE and generally between about 15 - 20 mph , with another 16.1mm rain making today total so far of 25.3mm ( 1" )
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 07:25 PM

Current satellite views of the storm

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 07:37 PM

A tropical disturbance moving from the western Caribbean toward southeastern Mexico has become Tropical Depression Two.

The system will unleash torrential rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides in the region. There is a chance the system becomes Tropical Storm Barry before reaching mainland Mexico at midweek.

Tropical downpours from northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras and Belize to southeastern Mexico can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time.

Two-day rainfall, as of Monday morning, in Honduras includes 5.64 inches in La Ceiba and 4.26 inches in Trujillo.

Proximity to land (less than 60 miles) is expected to limit much development before it reaches Belize Monday afternoon. However, plenty of warm water on either side of the peninsula is available to the system and may sustain it somewhat after making landfall.

This enhanced satellite image shows Tropical Depression Two approaching Belize as of Monday midday, June 17, 2013.

Accuweather

Posted By: elbert

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 07:39 PM

On Ambergris Caye The Coastal Express has stopped running and we're getting some major surge. It's going to be a rough night on the ocean front.
[Linked Image]
Posted By: Capt. Hollywood

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 08:03 PM

North Side of the bridge, by the theater, water is getting high. almost impassable.
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 08:16 PM

Wow Elbert- that is the dock at Solaria, no?

Beach trail/road from Barrier Reef to Indigo is impassable.



Posted By: Emblie

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 08:46 PM

When is this crapola going to be over with? I'm on vacay!!!
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 08:48 PM

summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.4n 88.4w
about 10 mi...15 km NE of Monkey River Town Belize
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
satellite...radar...and surface data indicate that the depression is
currently near the coast of southern Belize and should move inland
within the next few hours.

At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 88.4 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19
km/h. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the
center will move over Belize and northern Guatemala tonight and
early Tuesday...over eastern Mexico later on Tuesday. The
depression could emerge into the southern Bay of Campeche by early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher
gusts. Weakening will occur while the center moves over land
tonight and Tuesday. Some strengthening is possible by early
Wednesday if the center emerges into the Bay of Campeche.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...the depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
across portions of Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...
along with the Mexican states of Chiapas...Tabasco...Veracruz...and
the southern Yucatan Peninsula. These rains could cause flash
flooding...especially in mountainous areas.

Wind...gusty winds to near tropical storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of Belize through tonight.

although the center of the depression has been hard to locate this
afternoon...satellite and radar imagery as well as surface
observations suggest that the depression is very near the coast of
southern Belize. The system did not strengthen this afternoon...and
in fact became a little less organized as it approached the coast.
The current intensity is kept at 30 kt although this might be
generous. The cyclone should move over land...some of it
mountainous...for the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore it is
conceivable that the tropical cyclone could dissipate in that time
frame.

The initial motion estimate is 290/10. The global models show
an east-West Ridge weakening...but remaining in place...over the
northern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. This should
maintain the west-northwestward heading with a slowing of forward
speed during the next 48-72 hours. The 1800 UTC track guidance is
somethat slower than that from this morning...and so is the
official track forecast. The NHC track prediction is very close to
the latest GFS...however the new ECMWF model run is farther south
and suggests that the system might not be able to emerge into the
Gulf of Mexico.

The primary concern with this system is heavy rainfall...which could
cause significant flooding over portions of Central America and
eastern Mexico.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/17/13 10:09 PM

[Linked Image]

Pic is at casa miradores... Down from Victoria house just about 1/2 hour ago smile. Water is almost covering dock and getting into pool.

Photo by Robert Justman

NEMO ADVISORY No. 2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO

LOCATION...16.4N 88.4W, ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF MONKEY RIVER, BELIZE

AT 03:00 PM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROX. 12 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

*IN THE STANN CREEK DISTRICT:

• MULLINS RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE THE TEMPORARY (BY-PASS) BRIDGE ON COASTAL ROAD AND IS CLOSED TO VEHICULAR TRAFFIC

• NORTH STANN CREEK RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING IN MIDDLE SEX, PAMONA AND HOPE CREEK

• SOUTH STANN CREEK RIVER IS 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING

• SITTEE RIVER IS 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING

• WATER IS ACROSS THE HUMMINBIRD HIGHWAY AT MILES 13, 18 AND 20

• BOWMAN HOUSING AREA AT MILE 15 IS UNDER 6 INCHES OF WATER.



*IN THE TOLEDO DISTRICT:

• BOOM CREEK ROAD AT ARMANDO CREEK IS 3 1/2 FEET UNDER WATER AND IS CLOSED TO VEHICULAR TRAFFIC

• BLUE CREEK IS 4 INCHES BELOW THE BRIDGE AND RISING

• BLADDEN, TEMASH & MOHO RIVERS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISING


PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS BELIZE. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT 6:00 P.M BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.
Posted By: Wizardofaahs

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 01:22 AM

Originally Posted by Emblie
When is this crapola going to be over with? I'm on vacay!!!


Maybe you should have a chat with your vacay planner. This is the free adventure part....
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 01:27 AM

The remains of Tropical Depression 2 now producing heavy rain over the northern half of Belize. The rain should soon start to taper off in the Belmopan area. By morning the weather system should have moved out the area.

Don Thompson in Belmopan

this from Belize City....

Canal water in backyard. Bouts of heavier winds and rain. Dogs just went out to use bathroom but came right back. Should be more of same tnite. Ladyville above sea level. Belize city at sea level.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 01:34 AM

from LOVETV

Belize Gets Rains and Wind From Tropical Depression #2

17 Jun 2013 04:41 PM PDT

Marion Ali, Reporting

The second Tropical Depression for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season slammed into Belize this afternoon at around 13 MPH with wind gusts of up to 41knots. The storm formed at around nine this morning, some 98 miles ENE of Punta Gorda Town and 60 miles E of Monkey River and made landfall somewhere between Dangriga Town and Independence Village at around three this afternoon.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“As the system moves across here all this will be swinging in that direction over the northern part because the circulation is counter clock wise so this will be swinging up towards the northern part of the country.”

Gonguez said that the roughly two inches of rainfall that inundated some of Belize City streets on Sunday and Sunday night were associated with the Depression. By the time the depression passes over Belize over tonight, it would have dumped another three inches of rainfall over the country, and that is cause for concern.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“We’re looking at, in the north this afternoon and this evening up to about 3 – 3 ½ inches up in the north and that could cause some issues then the activities switches to the south tonight where we could be getting 2 – 2 ½ inches between tonight and tomorrow morning. We are looking at the rains being the bigger threat than the winds.”

While the greatest part of the storm has passed, the system will continue to deposit rain over the country and Gonguez advises people in low-lying areas to make the necessary adjustments.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“You should take the necessary precautions to safeguard life and property if you see the waters are rising in your vicinity.”

Even when the system leaves our area that will not be the last of it.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“It appears that when the system goes into the Bay of Campeche, it could regenerate into a depression once it maintains its status across the Yucatan Peninsula.”

Flash Floods Are Likely In Southern Belize

The Stann Creek NEMO met this afternoon to discuss the current weather situation. Correspondent Harry Arzu has more details on the meeting.

HARRY ARZU

“The incessant rains continue to affect the Stann Creek District as a result of the tropical depression that is passing over Belize. A number of primary schools were given permission to close their doors today despite the fact that primary school students were scheduled to start their third term promotional examination here in the municipality. However, NEMO Stann Creek says they are on alert and is monitoring the weather. Mayor Gilbert Swazo is the Chairperson for NEMO Stann Creek.”

MAYOR SWAZO

“We continue to monitor the tropical depression and along with the Regional Coordinator and the District Coordinator we continue to issue advisory in relation to the likely impacts of the rainy condition. We are giving advisory to all those flood prone areas within Dangriga and within Stann Creek District to be vigilant and to be on the lookout for flash floods. We continue to monitor and at this time we have given advisory to residents within the Stann Creek District and Dangriga in general.”
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 05:08 AM

USA Nat'l Weather Service Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has continued moving west-northwestward at
around 8 kt this evening over Belize...as best can be determined
from the shortwave infrared imagery and sparse observational data.
A continued track in this direction...though slower...should
continue for the next two to three days primarily due to the
influence of a weak deep-layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. At
about day three...a Bend to the west or even west-southwest is
anticipated...which is common for cyclones reaching the Bay of
Campeche because of the high topography of Mexico. The track
forecast is similar to...but just south of...the previous advisory
and is based primarily upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global
models. Note that while a 96 hr forecast point is provided to show
continuity of the track over Mainland Mexico...it is not likely
that the cyclone will survive quite that long over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.

The limited surface observations suggest a current intensity of 25
kt. It is of note that before landfall a 1904z AMSU pass indicated
a modest upper-level warm core had developed...with the CIMSS
intensity analysis suggesting that it might have briefly reached
tropical storm intensity. The depression should remain over land
for about the next 36 hr...so gradual weakening is likely. As the
forecast track now only briefly has the cyclone reaching the Bay of
Campeche while moderate southwesterly vertical shear is
continuing...it is not anticipated that the system will reach
tropical storm intensity before making a second landfall over
Mexico. An alternative scenario is that the system will dissipate
earlier while over Central America before reaching the Bay of
Campeche.
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 05:10 AM

quiet in Belize City the last couple - three hours....
Posted By: SimonB

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 09:49 AM

Big squall just came through 40mph+...
Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 10:48 AM

TD2 Over Guatemala
Accuweather

6/18/2013 10:49:35 AM

Tropical Depression 2 is located at 16.4 N, -88.4 W with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 45 mph

Tuesday morning Tropical Depression Two was centered over northern Guatemala. The depression was moving to the west-northwest at about 8 mph, Satellite pictures indicate the system has weakened somewhat since Monday. The primary concern for the depression today and tonight will be torrential downpours than can cause flooding and lead to mudslides.

Moving over land, the depression will remain weak. It will continue to generate heavy rainfall across Guatemala, Belize ands southeastern Mexico as it continues to track toward the west-northwest into Mexico. The center may move back over water across the Bay of Campeche, or it could continue moving more westward and remain over land. If it would move back over water, there would be an opportunity for it to strengthen later tonight or Wednesday, but if it remains over land it would likely remain weak. In any case, heavy rain will be the main impact from this system over the next couple of days.

This system will remain too far south to have any direct impact on the United States, but it could steer rich tropical moisture into Deep South Texas starting at midweek. This in turn could lead to some beneficial rainfall for this area.

There are no other areas of concern across the Tropical Atlantic. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone is along and south of 10 north latitude over the tropical Atlantic. North of there is a widespread area of Saharan dust extending from the Africa coast to the Lesser Antilles. This Saharan dust will help to limit thunderstorm activity north of about 12 degrees north for at least the next few days. There are a couple of weak tropical waves to track, one near 62 west, south of 12 north and the other near 50 west, south of 12 north. These two waves will bring brisk winds and showers to the Windward and Leeward Islands over the next day or two. The northern end of the wave can even moisten the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. There are no other areas of concern across the tropical Atlantic at this time.

Tropical Depression Floods Belize, Mexico

The tropical disturbance that grew into a tropical depression Monday in the western Caribbean maintained its status Monday night as it moved across the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The system will unleash torrential rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides in the region. Although unlikely, there is a chance the system becomes Tropical Storm Barry before reaching mainland Mexico at midweek.

Tropical downpours from northern Honduras to southeastern Mexico can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time.

Two-day rainfall, as of Monday morning, in Honduras includes 5.64 inches in La Ceiba and 4.26 inches in Trujillo.

Proximity to land is expected to limit the development of this system into Tuesday night before it moves closer to the warm waters of Bay of Campeche.

This enhanced satellite image shows Tropical Depression Two centered over Belize as of early Tuesday, June 18, 2013.

RELATED:
Hurricane Center 2013
Hurricane Satellite Maps
2013 AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast

The system is forecast to briefly move over warm water early Wednesday morning into early Thursday; however, if the system tracks farther south, interactions between the system and the ocean will be limited. If this occurs, the depression will likely weaken.

The second name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2013 is Barry.

Beyond Wednesday, most tropical rains should move inland (westward) over Mexico.

There is a chance that some of the moisture from the system is funneled into part of south and west Texas late in the week well after the second landfall.



Tropical Depression #2 Will Continue To Bring Heavy Rain To Belize, Guatemala & Southern & Central Mexico; Long Range Guidance Starting To Sniff Out Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean During The First Week Of July
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Tuesday, June 18, 2013 7:35 am

Tropical Depression #2:
Tropical Depression 2 was located over northeastern Guatemala this morning. Satellite imagery showed a very ragged system, but even with that it will continue to bring heavy rainfall to Belize, Guatemala and southern and central Mexico from today through Wednesday and even Thursday.

The depression is expected to track west-northwestward and may emerge in the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon; however, this is less clear this morning. There are two possibilities this morning: The first is that it never makes it into the Bay of Campeche as high pressure to the north imparts a more westerly track keeping the system over southern Mexico the rest of this week.

The second possibility is that Tropical Depression 2 tracks further into the Bay of Campeche in which fairly quick development and intensification could occur from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning before tracking onshore just south of Tampico, Mexico during Friday. This is a scenario that is supported by the most recent track guidance which has shifted a little to the north. In fact the latest intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a 40 to 50 mph tropical storm while this system is in the Bay of Campeche.

I am leaning towards scenario number 2 as the latest upper level winds would seem to support a track into the Bay of Campeche during Wednesday and then a west-northwest track across the Bay of Campeche with a landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm about halfway between Tuxpan and Veracruz, Mexico during Friday.

Either way, heavy rainfall is expected to continue from today right through Wednesday and even Thursday across Belize, Guatemala as well as across southern and even central Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are likely across this entire area. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely.

A high pressure ridge across the southern United States will prevent the depression from tracking northward and this system is of no threat to the United States.

Forecast Track Of TD 2:
Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

Model Track Forecast For TD 2:
Courtesy of South Florida Water Management District
Courtesy of Weather Underground

Courtesy of Weather Underground

Courtesy of Weather Underground

Model Intensity Forecast For TD 2:
Courtesy of Weather Underground


Satellite Imagery Of TD 2:

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

Courtesy of Satellite Services Division

As I have mentioned in previous discussions, the next chance for tropical development still looks to be during the first and second week of July as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation contributes to the formation of thunderstorm activity, lowering barometric pressures and potential development in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It should be pointed out that the latest GFS model guidance seems to be now sniffing this out with a forecast of some sort of tropical system developing in the far western Caribbean around July 3rd. This is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next week or two and will keep you all updated.

If you have questions regarding this tropical discussion, do not hesitate to contact me.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Wednesday morning.

See today's full Tropical Weather Outlook here.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 11:09 AM

Torrential Rain From TD Two!

At this hour, Tropical Depression #2 is over Southern Belize near Monkey River with winds of 35 miles an hour. Now that is over land, the weather system is weakening but it has dumped and continues to dump torrents of rain – particularly on Southern Belize.


NEMO reports that

Mullins river is three feet above the temporary bridge on the Coastal Road and that is closed to vehicular traffic.

Further south, the North Stann Creek River is 3 ft above normal and rising in Middlesex, Pamona And Hope Creek.

The South Stann Creek River is also 3 ft above normal and rising.

Sittee River is 4 ft above normal and also rising.

Water is across the Hummingbird Highway at miles 13, 18 and 20 while the Bowman housing area at mile 15 is under 6 inches of water.

Today, the Chief Met Officer said they have been watching the system develop since Saturday.

Dennis Gonguez - Chief Meteorological Officer
"We have been monitoring a very active Tropical Wave last week as it was forecast to affecting the country on Sunday. Sure enough we started getting the showers and thunder showers yesterday and this morning we have entered into more favorable conditions. The Tropical Depression formed about 2:00am and at that time it was 16.9N and 87.6W and that location is 60 miles south east of Monkey River and about 98 miles east north east of Punta Gorda. The depression had winds of 35 miles per hour and was moving towards west north west at about 13 miles per hour. The major threat from this system at this time is the rainfall. We could see an additional 2-3 inches coming out of this system. We've already had about 2 inches last night and so we can look at an additional two to three inches coming out of this system during this afternoon and tonight and tomorrow morning. As the system moves over the mainland this afternoon, the showers will be concentrating in the northern half of the country - Belize City northward where we could see 2.5 - 3 inches of rainfall over northern Belize. Then as the system exists and head westward then the concentration move the southern parts of the country where again you could see about 2.5 inches in the south. So we should be monitoring it in the even that your area is prone to flooding then you should be monitoring it to see if you're at risk."

Daniel Ortiz
"So when can residents expect improvement in the weather conditions?"

Dennis Gonguez
"When the system moves away we'll see some improvements starting tomorrow and we're not expecting as much rainfall tomorrow like we've been having yesterday and today. So we should see some improvements tomorrow and Wednesday as the system moves further away."

All those living in flood prone areas, particularly in southern Belize are advised to be on the alert for flooding. And we note this particularly because while it may only be a tropical depression, in 2008 one of those caused terrible flash flooding in Southern Belize which resulted in the loss of 7 lives.

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 11:32 AM


Never Underestimate a Small Tropical Depression, Belize Drenched

The effects on Ambergris Caye can be seen with much beach erosion as the large waves have been pounding the beaches, piers and seawalls. Some coconut trees along the beach are in danger of toppling over, while tons of sea grass has been piling up as well. Business is slow – dive boats cannot go out to sea. Classes have been canceled during the beginning of exam week, one cannot walk the beach and enjoy a sunny day and most boat owners have opted to tie up their vessels or haul them up to land to protect them. There have even been some flights cancelled to Belize City after the Municipal Airport there had to be closed down due to flooding of the runway.

But the most important thing is that the tropical depression is not posing any immediate danger to Belize. Mother Nature is releasing some of its energy and we just have to cope with it and be thankful that we are mostly only getting lots of rain. The Belize National Emergency Management Organization has only advised against possible flooding in low lying areas in the country. The storm is expected to move away from Belize by Tuesday afternoon, with conditions looking much better.


School is out in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, because of the heavy rains and bad weather conditions due to tropical depression #2 hitting Belize today, June 17, 2013. The Ministry of Education called for no classes and kids being kids, a few found how to enjoy their free day. They headed to the beach to have some fun with the unusually large crashing waves.

Click here to read the rest of the article and see LOTS more photos in the Ambergris Today

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 11:57 AM

As you may all know, the tropical depression caused a few damages here and there but mostly it brought in a lot of debris onto the shore. Tomorrow morning, the Town Council workers will be out cleaning the beach and streets and performing their usual routine; however, the Mayor asks for your support to make an effort in helping out by cleaning your surroundings. The more help we get the quicker San Pedro becomes cleaner and back to its normal state. We appreciate your cooperation and hope everyone is safe!

Warm Wishes
San Pedro Town Council

[Linked Image]

115 Photos of TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 in San Pedro

Images showing damages done to the beach from Spindrift Hotel to the Sir Barry Bowen Bridge.

CLICK HERE
Posted By: Diane Campbell

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 01:18 PM

8:12 AM update - Mata Grande and Spanish Reef Areas ....

Tide was low and one could pass safely on bikes and presumably on cart from Barrier Reef to Spanish Reef - at that point it was best to take the "short cut" just south of Iguana House and then join up with the Mata Grande road.
Mata Grande Road from Lot 1 - 19 has some puddles but no real flooding and the road is very passable.
Beach erosion noticeable all along the way - lots of seagrass on beaches as well. Packing the seagrass against the eroded slopes will be a good start at rebuilding the these areas.
Frankly I thought it would look a lot worse than it does. Clean up shouldn't take more than a day or two.
I did not take the camera for condition photos because of rain. Hopefully Elbert has his waterproof one and can take pics to share.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 04:09 PM

Motorists Advised to Exercise Extreme Caution on Roads

NEMO ADVISORY No. 3 (TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO)

AT 09:00 AM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROX. 8 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN LOW-LYING COMMUNITIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE STANN CREEK DISTRICT.

SITUATION:

COROZAL DISTRICT

school closed

ORANGE WALK DISTRICT

school closed

BELIZE DISTRICT

school closed

CAYO DISTRICT

school open

MACAL RIVER

2 ft above normal and rising

MOPAN RIVER

10 inches above normal and rising

STANN CREEK

school closed

4MILES VALLEY ROAD

people were rescued by MOW and Police

MULLINS RIVER

Coast Guard have been deployed to assist with evacuating 30 people, who will be sheltered in Sacred Heart Parish, Dangriga

SARAWEE

village and road flooded along the highway to Dangriga with 2.5-4.5 feet of water, some people moved into shelter

HOPE CREEK

village and road is flooded and 49 people have been evacuated to the Hope Creek Methodist School Shelter

SITTEE RIVER

sections of the road is flooded

HOPKINS

sections of the road is flooded

DANGRIGA

Flooding from 5miles to Dangriga

MILES 30 ENTRANCE TO GEORGETOWN VILLAGE

culvert is washed-out and impassable (MOW working to replace the culvert)

TOLEDO DISTRICT

school open except for Boom Creek

BOOM CREEK

road flooded

PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN YOUR AREAS AND MOVE TO A SAFE, DRY PLACE BEFORE NIGHT FALL. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON THE HIGHWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS.

NEMO CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO THE FLOOD SITUATIONS. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATION FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES FROM NEMO AND THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGY SERVICE.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/18/13 10:57 PM

NEMO ADVISORY No. 4 (TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. TWO)

At 2:00 pm Tropical Depression Two was located near Latitude 18.3 North, Longitude 91.9 West. The depression is moving towards the West-Northwest at approx. 10 mph over the Southern Bay of Campeche and away from Belize, with maximum sustained winds at 30 mph with higher gusts. Flooding is likely to continue in the low-lying communities.

SITUATION REPORT SOUTHERN BELIZE

STANN CREEK DISTRICT

MULLINS RIVER

Temporary crossing is under 12ft of water. The Coastal highway remains closed. MOW is on standby to repair the temporary crossing and approaches if required.

SARAWEE

The water is receding and most of the people in the Shelter at the Community Center have returned to their homes.

HOPE CREEK

The water is receding rapidly and there is no longer any water across the highway. Most of the people who were in the shelter have returned to their homes. In Hope Creek New Housing Area, the water is 5inches and falling.

SITTEE RIVER

Hopkins road (Bypass) is closed and is under 2ft of water.

DANGRIGA TOWN

The water is receding

MILES 30 GEORGETOWN VILLAGE

The culvert has been replaced and the road is open

TOLEDO DISTRICT

BOOM CREEK

Boom Creek Road still have 2ft of water and is receding slowly.

Assessment and Health Teams are standing by to visit the affected Communities as soon as the areas become accessible.

Persons living in flood prone areas across the country are advised to remain vigilant for possible flooding in their areas.

Motorists are advised to exercise extreme caution when driving on the highways and secondary roads.

NEMO continues to respond to the flood situations. Stay tuned to your local radio and television station for further advisories from NEMO and the National Meteorology Service.

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/19/13 10:57 AM


Keeping One Step Ahead of the Storm

It is hard to believe what a mess we got from "just" a tropical depression! The storm that hit Belize on Monday, June 17, 2013, could not by any words be described as a little one. Just because the storm is not classified a hurricane it does not make it a small tropical squall. I do believe that we do take it for granted that these ‘no named’ storms will just pass us by with rain.

There have been other tropical depressions and tropical storms that have caught us off guard in the past. Have we learned from them? Indeed we have. We’ve learned what to expect, how to prepare, where to take shelter, where to secure our boats and which homes will withstand stronger hurricanes. We have learned that we can batten down the hatches and fair through a big storm if, and only if, we are prepared and take the precautionary steps to stay safe.

Click here to read the rest of the article and see LOTS more photos in the Ambergris Today


From Diane...

The northern cayes of Belize had a lot of rain from TD2, and winds in gusting around 45 MPH.

Sea level was high, but the waves themselves were not so dramatic. Some beach erosion, and lots of seagrass/logs/etc on the beaches. San Pedro Town Council called out a volunteer work party yesterday and as of this morning the beaches in San Pedro town area are all clean and nice.

Boats from Belize City have resumed their runs and school is open.

Southern Mainland Beize is having flood issues but water is going down pretty quickly. They got 10" of rain in 24 hours in some areas.

Not sure how many inches of rain we had on Ambergris Caye but my cistern went up 7" and is nearly full. Feeling pretty smug about the water-storage part.

Today we have gray skies, off and on rain. Thunder this morning. Looks like the rest of the week will be soggy too.

Lobsterfest appears to be successful despite the weather! If you can't dive, you can still eat, drink and dance.

Visit us in Belize - you'll be glad you did!

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/19/13 11:28 AM

Met Office: TD 2 Formed Unexpectedly

But first, we get the overview from the Met Department. They’ve been watching this Tropical Wave since last week – and were caught slightly off guard on the weekend when it formed into a depression 50 miles off the coast of Belize.

Today, Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez told us that the weather system has produced heavy, but not record rainfall.




Dennis Gonguez - Chief MET Officer
"As tropical depression #2 moves away, we're still getting some rainfall around the country. The numbers range from 2 1/2 inches in the north to about 3 1/2 inches in the west and as high as 7 inches in the south. This has led to some flooding in some sections in the southern parts of the country. In the past 24 hours since the system was called a tropical depression we were close to about 10 inches in the south, in the previous 24 hours we had about 3 inches in the south so we're pretty much close to 10 inches in the south to this time. We tend to focus on Tropical storms and hurricanes with their wind damage but however tropical depressions can provide us with copious amount of rainfall resulting in flooding."

Jules Vasquez
"Sir, are you able to speak about the behavior of the system as it came on land at about 6pm yesterday?"

Dennis Gonguez
"Well the track took a little jog to the north, however from there it was difficult to identify a center, even presently today -the last bulletin in the last satellite pictures it was hard for us to identify the center of circulation. So the system is heading over land at this time and is quite possibly going to downgrade as a tropical wave before the day is out."

Jules Vasquez
"Have we seen the worst of it?"

Dennis Gonguez
"Well we should start to see some improvements although it will continue wet for another two to three days, we won't see that copious amount of rain fall that we had on Sunday and Monday."

Jules Vasquez
"Is it in usual behavior, typical behavior for a system to develop right on Belize's doorstep at this time of year?"

Dennis Gonguez
"The development of the system into a depression just about 50-60 miles from us was - we didn't expect it to develop into a depression so near to us. Even the folks at the National Hurricane Center in Miami had a 40% genesis potential on the system up to yesterday morning. Suddenly about 8;30 they called me and told me they were upgrading it to a Tropical Depression - so even the experts in Miami did not know it would have become a tropical depression."

Gonguez says when TD2 or what’s left of it re-emerges into the Bay of Campeche it could again be upgraded into a significant weather system.


Hope Creek Gets Flooded Again, This Time Residents Ready

Tropical Depression two dropped about ten inches of rain in the south in 24 hours resulting in raised river levels, closed schools, people in shelters and collapsed culverts on the highway. The news tonight though is that in most areas, the water is receding and life is returning to normal.

But “normal” is a relative term for flood ravaged communities. Today, our news team trekked across many of the flood prone areas in the south – and we begin our coverage in Hope Creek where, at the height of the flood, 39 people were put in shelters.

Hope Creek, viewers will recall experienced vicious flash floods in 2008 leading to the loss of life. Well, this time, the water didn’t come in a flash, but it did flood and, it seems, they were ready. Our Daniel Ortiz and Codie Norales were thigh deep in the flood waters today – and they have this report..

Daniel Ortiz reporting
An uninformed observer maybe mistaken if they look at this area and concluded that it is some natural body of water. It's an actual street in the Hope Creek Village which was overrun by the flood waters from Tropical Depression 2.

That system dumped 10 inches of torrential rain on the village, swelling the North Stann Creek River until it sent that flood to the low lying areas of the village.

So where do the drains and yards intersect with the actual street? Only the villagers have an idea.

They gave us guided tour of the area. Our Cameraman had to get around in a makeshift raft they provided.


Rene Salguero Sr. - Resident, Hope Creek Village
"We actually stood on the culvert at the entrance of my house - this is the street and this is the entrance to my house. This is unbelievable what happened today, it is funny - I don't even know what to say because I feel bad."


Mariano Ack - Resident, Hope Creek Village
"This morning around 3a.m. the water was coming up very fast and it was higher and up to now it's just going down but it was higher this morning - higher above our heads because I'm five feet tall but it was higher than me. At this moment it's going down very slow."

Rene Salguero Sr
"This is Hope Creek but this is Salguero Street because we are Salguero but they have more people living here, the river isn't too far away maybe about 200 meters from here."

Salguero is one of the villagers most affected. The lower flat of his house is under water

We caught up with him as he was trying to fish his TV out of the street, now turned lake.

Rene Salguero Sr
"It's a nightmare here, I really can't explain what exactly happen. This is something with nature and last night it started around 6 yesterday evening and the water started to race and race, we didn't expect it to get this high. We usually get flooded here but not as high at this time so we didn't get a chance to take out everything out of the house, later on we will see all the losses that I have. I didn't sleep at all last night, I haven't even eaten as yet because we don't have anything to cook - everything is gone.


This is a real bad experience for all of us in this village and I really feel bad because everything is gone - even my truck broke down and you noticed my dog, I will have to take you in my room soon so that you can see the washing machine, the refrigerator. Nobody is here only I stayed because there are a lot of scavengers that would like to steal my stuff too, everything because my son lives downstairs and my wife, my other son and I live upstairs and when the water started to race it wasn't fast but we didn't expect it to get so high. We just monitored it and it was quick we didn't have time to do anything so as soon you will see I lost everything. I didn't insure anything because the last time I insured and the insurance didn't help me much so I decided to take it on my own and I will have to replace everything - I wish someone can help me. Every house is almost the same."

Daniel Ortiz
"So how many families have had to evacuate because of this unexpected flooding?"

Rene Salguero Sr
"Well everybody from this side had to go out, I think it's it was about 20 families that had to leave around 3a.m. Actually this storm passed here around 3:00 o'clock and blew the breeze maybe about 40 miles an hour but it passed hard so everybody had to leave."

And those people, erring on the side of caution, decided to evacuate to the Hope Creek Methodist School, the village's hurricane shelter.

Elroy Wade - Chairman, Hope Creek Village
"Most of the families here seeking shelter are the families that live near the river bank area and the back area of the village which is a low lying area. So these are the people that are seeking shelter right now. Most of the villagers knew about the weather that was passing. From around 3 o'clock yesterday, I gathered up my team and we had gone around the village and informing people of the situation. Everybody knows that Hope Creek is a place that is prone to flooding, it's not something strange to anyone. Yearly on the rainy season we get flooding all around."

Daniel Ortiz
"So how many families have decided to take refuge here, sir?"

Elroy Wade
"Presently we have 54 persons seeking shelter here right now."

But while the Hope Creek moved out, they were partially cut off from neighboring communities.


That's because the North Stann Creek River also inundated the Hummingbird Highway at different locations, but particularly at mile 5. Emergency personnel had to provide assistance to small vehicles to cross this flooded area.

Later on in the news, we’ll have more flood stories from Sarawee, Sittee and Dangriga.


Flood stories From Sarawee and Sitee

As we showed you at the top of the Newscast, Hope Creek experienced flooding which affected the low-lying areas of the village, and forced 54 residents to evacuate to the hurricane shelter.

Well, Sarawee and Sittee River had their own share of flooding from Tropical Depression 2, and while on survey of the affected areas, we stopped in at both villages.

Here’s what one villager told us about how the rise in water surprised him, even though it was a weak storm:

Steven Emmanuel Sr. - Resident, Sarawee Village
"It started from about 10:00 and I went to my bed and took a little nap and when I woke up about 3 it went down about 3 - 4 inches and then this morning it came up back a little higher because it was 3 inch to enter my house and this morning when I noticed, it almost entered the house. This is the first time i see that it takes so long to go down."

Daniel Ortiz "Was there anyone from Sarawee who had to evacuate from low lying areas which had dangerous experiences with flooding?"

Steven Emmanuel Sr. "Yes they have a few people that live in the North west side and over there at the east side but not to evacuate out of the village, just to get to higher land in the same village."

Daniel Ortiz "What you're looking at, is your yard and it looks like a pool."

Steven Emmanuel Sr. "You know from 10:00 last night until now, normally 2-3 hours the water would run already."

Daniel Ortiz "And that is the street outside we're looking at."

Steven Emmanuel Sr. "Yes this is one street. I wonder if we're facing this problem now because I can remember many years and this didn't used to happen and I can remember that I don't really remember if it was (I don't want to call names) they dug out the bank side from the river and now the change now. Water used to pass by but not hanging like this."

Daniel Ortiz "We understand this is just a depression, we can only imagine if it was a hurricane and if it was centralized in this area - flooding would have been uncontrollable, your house would have been under water as well."

Steven Emmanuel Sr. "I guess so."

And while that was Sarawee, Sittee River Village also had minor effects of the storm, the most significant being that the river swelled over a section of the road, making it impassable by vehicles.

We caught up with a few villagers who were on duty to ferry people across, and they told us about what they experienced last night and this morning:

Marlon Reynaud - Resident, Sittee River Village "This is from yesterday it came up high from this morning and by this afternoon it was already high and it will probably go down back by midday so we're just praying that it goes down back."

Daniel Ortiz "How do you get people across one side of the street to the other side?"

Marlon Reynaud "We use the canoe."

Daniel Ortiz "To someone who doesn't know about this village or this road, where does the street start and where does the river start? If you look at it you wouldn't be able to tell the difference."

Marlon Reynaud "Where we are now a vehicle length is the street and the river is right there, yyou will be able to tell the difference."

Daniel Ortiz "But if you don't know where you are, you might step to the river bank and be washed away."

Marlon Reynaud "You really have to know more or less or else you will go that way. You have to know how to drive on this road."

Daniel Ortiz "Can vehicles really pass this way right now?"

Marlon Reynaud "Only to the basketball court and that's it."

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/19/13 11:29 AM

NEMO In Griga Was In Front Of the Flood

A major part of the Stann Creek District’s excellent response was that the NEMO Hub in Dangriga was very active and vigilant, watching every move of Tropical Depression 2.

Today, we spoke to the Mayor of Dangriga Town, who is also the chairman of the Stann Creek Emergency Committee, and he gave us a full report on their activities since yesterday.

Here’s what he told us:

Mayor Gilbert Swazo - Chairman, Stann Creek Emergency Committee
"Earlier this morning about 3:00 we recieved word that there were people on the Mullins river who needed to be evacuated. Again we immediately coordinated through NEMO, through Coast Guard who then subsequently deployed a vessel and we also placed an alert - one shelter, Parish Hall within Dangriga with the view to house and shelter those evacuees from Mullins River. There were 49, however, I must report that right now while the coast guard has arrived at the destination at Mullins River, we have no confirmation that the people have now been extracted but the shelter remains open and the shelter management team prepared to support those evacuees from Mullins River. Amongst the other reports that we received is that the Mullins river bridge is compromised and the coastal road is under water as a result of the bridge being compromised and the fact that the road is severely under water. That road has now been declared again in concurrence with NEMO - it is now closed for vehicular traffic. There is also a culvert on the Southern Highway which is compromised and again the Ministry of Works are on scene doing rehabilitation works with a view then that we could open the road for continuous traffic. Those areas are critical arteries to provide supplies to our people, to the villagers in those communities that are not impacted.

Hope Creek, Sarawee has been impacted so it's obvious that Dangriga is next. As early as this morning about 1:00 there were teams that were sent out with a view to ascertain what level of impact has affected Dangriga. It is note then that we are in the New Site 1 area so this area and New Site 2 are the areas that are severely affected in Dangriga. Also Lakeland and the Rivas estate is impacted and Benguche is also impacted."

The Stann Creek Emergency Committee remains active at this hour until NEMO declares that the flood threat is a non factor. After that happens, they committee will be surveying the communities to see what sort of relief it can provide.


Fun In A Time Of Flooding

We’ve shown you the residents of the Stann Creek Valley who were affected, and who had the scare of the floods from Tropical Depression 2.

Well, there were some young men from Sarawee Village who weren’t too worried about the storm. As a matter of fact, they had a good time in the floods waters of their yard.

We asked them why they were taking light of a situation which the adults thought was no joke.

Here’s what they told us:

Rudolph Emmanuel - Resident, Sarawee Village
"We're just playing football. In the water you can jump and not get hurt, just playing rough in the water."

Daniel Ortiz
"You usually play like this when you have flooding in this area?"

Rudolph Emmanuel -
"Yes we go around in canoe."

Daniel Ortiz
"Tell us about when you guys decide that instead of waiting until the rain passes, we will be out there playing in the water."

Rudolph Emmanuel -
"From last night we've been playing in water. This is fun."

Daniel Ortiz
"This is like a swimming pool for you right now."

Ricky Emmanuel - Resident, Sarawee Village
"Yes, just jump up and so on because we won't get hurt."

Daniel Ortiz
"What all kind of games do you guys engage in whenever there's flooding in this area."

Ricky Emmanuel
"Like swimming, football, stamp down, karate and American football."

And while those boys were playing their football-water polo hybrid, we found another young man in Sittee River Village, who teamed up with his fellow villagers to provide ferry services to residents over the flooded section of the road.

He told us that he’s proud to provide assistance:

Daniel Ortiz
"Kids and the other children that are visiting are enjoying themselves. Are you amongst those who just love the water and sees it as another rainy day?"

Shammar Lamb - Resident, Sittee River Village
"Well I'm just here watching and thing because water snakes and other things in here and you don't know when you can get into the river - like you see that Coconut Tree from that go down is the river. If you get into the river it could wash you away. So I don't think I'm like those other kids."

Daniel Ortiz
"So you're not like those other kids that are enjoying the flood."




Shammar Lamb
"As you can see we have our canoes that we patrol in but right now we're taking a rest."

Daniel Ortiz
"You're working with the adults with ferrying people across?"

Shammar Lamb
"yes"

Daniel Ortiz
"What is it like being a part of the organization with trying to help people. You're such a young gentleman."

Shammar Lamb
"I'm feeling like a coastguard right now."

Channel 7

Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/19/13 12:33 PM

VIDEO FOOTAGE FROM MONDAY (SOUTH AMBERGRIS CAYE)



Posted By: Marty

Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/19/13 05:21 PM

NEMO ADVISORY No. 5

The National Emergency Management Organization hereby informs the general public on the following situation across the Country:

In the Cayo District:

  • Macal River is 24 inches above normal and rising.
  • Mopan River is 12 inches above normal and rising.

    The Belize River is 6ft above normal and rising throughout the Belize District.

  • In Lemonal by the Governor Creek culvert there is 6 inches of water across the road.
  • In Crooked Tree the lagoon is rising and is running off into Black Creek, Spanish Creek, Black Burn, Mexico Creek and Muscle Creek into the Belize River causing the Belize River to raise.

    In the Stann Creek District: Assessment and Health Teams are presently in the affected Communities of Sarawee, Mullins River, Gales Point and Dangriga Town.

  • All Shelters are closed.
  • The Coastal Road remains closed.
  • The temporary crossing at Mullins River is closed to vehicular traffic and is currently being repaired by The Ministry of Works.

    In the Toledo District there is no reports of flooding. The water on the Boom Creek road has receded. The road is open to vehicular traffic. Secondary roads in the rural areas are not in the best conditions due to the rains.

    Motorists are advised to continue exercise extreme caution when driving on the highways and secondary roads.

  • Posted By: Marty

    Re: TD2 Continues Westward Through Caribbean - 06/22/13 10:55 AM

    Damages From TD2 Assessed In Southern Belize

    The assessment of damages caused by tropical depression number two has begun. We hear more in this report from our Dangriga correspondent Harry Arzu.

    HARRY ARZU

    “Officials from the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Stann Creek branch have completed a comprehensive damage exercise on the communities that were affected by flood waters associated with tropical depression #2. Earlier this week the depression passed over Belize and caused tremendous damages to the Stann Creek District. Here is the Chairperson of NEMO, Stann Creek Mayor, Gilbert Swazo.”

    MAYOR GILBERT SWAZO

    “The damage assessment was concluded yesterday and a total assessed damage of $338, 275.00 was assessed. This assessment was carried out by four teams that were deployed; one team was deployed to the area of Mullins River; one to Sarawee; one to Hope Creek and then one to Dangriga. The damage assessed excluded the culvert and the bridge at the Coastal Road. The total assessed damage in Hope Creek and Mullins River were mostly household items totaling $68,000; the agricultural damage that was assessed was noted in Sarawee, Hope Creek, Mullins River and Red Bank totaling $32, 775 and this included damage to cassava plantation, plantain, hot peppers, chickens and over a thousand tilapia. In Dangriga it was noted that there was substantial infrastructural damage to the roads which totaled to over $200,000. So, again I must commend the damage assessment team that went out to conduct these assessments and we are certainly grateful for the job that they have done throughout the impact of the TD Storm. I must also mention that public health have conducted a survey of the water system here in Dangriga and have deemed it safe for the public to consume. All these assessed damage has been forward to NEMO and we are awaiting the response from NEMO in relation to how these will be disbursed.”

    HARRY ARZU

    “What is your advice to residents now that we have survived this storm knowing that we are in the early stage of the hurricane season?”

    MAYOR GILBERT SAWZO

    “This storm certainly has given us an opportunity to demonstrate to the people within the Stann Creek District and Dangriga proper that we need to remain vigilant and to listen to official NEMO advisory and we must remain prepared because as it is early and it is assessed that we will have an above average season, we must remain vigilant and be prepared to exercise our family plan and our operational subcommittee plan. So, let us be vigilant and cooperate with the official advisory as distributed by NEMO whenever that occurs.”

    LOVE TV