NEMO ADVISORY # 4: TROPICAL STORM NANA APPROACHING BELIZE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
NEMO DECLARES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BELIZE
TUESDAY, 1ST SEPTEMBER, 2020 as at 4:30 PM
The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) advise that Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.8N, longitude 79.3W or about 590 miles east of Belize City. Nana was moving to the west at 18mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Nana is forecast to continue moving west and to make landfall on Thursday as a category one hurricane. Residents across the country should be prepared for category 1 hurricane force winds between 74 and 95 mph. This system could also produce rainfall of up to 4-6 inches across the country which could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides. The NMS of Belize will continue to monitor the system and update the NEMO and the general public accordingly. The public must monitor the progress of this system but do not panic!
NEMO hereby declares a HURRICANE WATCH for Belize (one red flag with a black centre), Belize City, and the Cayes are under a Tropical Strom WARNING. The Warning is declared as the system path puts those areas under direct threat. Associated heavy rains can cause flooding, washout roads, bridges, culverts, winds can damage homes, trees branches, power lines and poles, loose items can be blown about and storm surge can cause flooding, drowning and beach vessels not securely moored. The next declaration is expected to be a Hurricane Warning (two red flag with a black centre flown one above the other) which means it is imminent that the Hurricane will make landfall on Belize within 24 hours.
The WARNING means the public must put their family emergency plan into action and to be prepared to seek safe shelter, (2) school management is notified that NEMO will need to access schools as shelters, (3) boat owners must secure their vessels, (4) a price freeze is in effect (5) public and private essential agencies and utility companies must release their employees when they need to seek shelter for their safety, (6) road infrastructure works need to be prioritized to maintain the lines of communication and (7) media houses and telephone service providers are advised to be prepared to secure your communication infrastructure. COVID 19 SHELTER PROTOCOLS are attached.
All Emergency Operations Centre (Command Centres) countrywide is under partial activation. A joint NEMO Headquarters, national committees' liaison officers and NEMO district coordinators virtual meeting was held. The meeting dealt with PPEs for public officers, human resource requirements, transportation for national committees, COVID 19 concerns and public health requirements in shelters, possible evacuation, shelter plan, mile 38 situation on the George Price Highway which is being addressed, acquisition of small equipment, sharing of certain standard information, the national needs list, BDF deployment in support to NEMO.
Government ministries are at this time is in transition where only essential staff engaged in the ministry emergency plan and those who will work NEMO duties should return to work tomorrow or as directed by their CEO in accordance with their ministry emergency plan.
We are asking people not to panic, stay calm, don't listen to rumours. Stay tuned for and adhere to the official release from NEMO and the National Met Service and stay alert. Prepare, and move without alarm, scare mongering does more harm than good considering some people's medical condition. NEMO will keep the general public updated. Do not panic Belize we have faced tropical cyclones many times before, the bigger threat is COVID 19 we must wear our masks, social distance and clean our hands and all surfaces on a regular basis.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 79.3 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nana could become a hurricane just prior to landfall on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly northeast through northwest of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
Although convection has waned somewhat since the previous advisory due to mid-level dry air entrainment, Nana still has enough deep convection over and surrounding the low-level center to keep the intensity at 45 kt. Upper-level outflow has continued to improve, with the associated anticyclone becoming more symmetrical. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.
The initial motion estimate is 275/16 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. A pronounced deep-layer to the north of Nana is forecast to remain intact and even build westward over the next few days, keeping Nana moving in a general westward direction for the next 36 hours or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is expected to build west-southwestward across southern Mexico, driving the cyclone west-southwestward as well across northern Central America. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.
The current northeasterly 15 kt of vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions should inhibit development for next 24 hours or so. However, the GFS and ECMWF models both forecast the shear to gradually decrease during the next 48 hours, becoming near 5 kt by 36 hours. The lower vertical shear, coupled with the already impressive outflow pattern, sea-surface temperatures of 29.5-30.5 deg C, and a moistening mid-level environment should allow for gradual strengthening for the next 24 hours, followed by more significant intensification thereafter, which will continue right up until landfall occurs. The NHC official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple consensus intensity model IVCN, and the corrected-consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.
A Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala, respectively.
Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana.
=================From San Pedro Town Council:
TROPICAL STORM NANA: PRECAUTIONARY ADVISORY AND MEASURES
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 – As announced by the National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO), Tropical Storm Nana was formed at around 10:00 a.m. and is expected to make landfall on Belize on Thursday, around midday as a hurricane.
In light of this information, the San Pedro Town Council, Hon. Manuel Heredia, Minister of Tourism & Civil Aviation, and the San Pedro EOC (Emergency Operations Center) hereby advise the general public of the following:
1. To commence putting a family emergency plan into action and to be prepared to seek safe shelter. Residents are suggested to secure their assets: board windows of their homes, secure entrances/exits, have a first aid kit at reach, etc.
2. Boat owners start securing your vessels. It is recommended to relocate all vessels from the eastern side of the island to the western side.
3. Golf cart owners and rentals: protect your vehicles by removing windshields and tops/roofs.
4. Construction: All sites must disassemble all scaffolds and store safely. Construction materials must be stored. Other objects/debris on site that might be hazardous or prone to become missiles must be cleared off or stored.
5. All property owners are required to secure or store objects that may be hazardous or prone to become missiles.
We remind everyone that we are still living in a world where COVID-19 exists and we must also take precautionary measures for the virus, especially families seeking safe shelter. Remember to always wear your mask, practice social distance of at least 6 feet apart and wash/clean our hands and all surfaces regularly.
We are asking everyone to remain calm and do not panic. Please abstain from listening or the spreading of rumors. Stay tuned for and adhere to the official releases from NEMO and the National Met Service, the San Pedro Town Council, and the San Pedro EOC. Stay alert and stay safe. God bless us all.
National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Update:
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the entire coastline of Belize as Tropical Storm Nana continues moving westward over the central Caribbean Sea.
At 9:00 pm, Tropical Storm Nana was located near 17.0N 80.9W or 485 miles East of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph and the system was moving west at 18 mph. The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor this system and urges the public to be prepared and stay informed with official information issued by the NMS and NEMO.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.
At 9:00 pm the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.8N, longitude 70.0W or about 310 miles East of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Omar was moving to the ENE at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph.
Tropical Weather Briefing!