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Hurricane Eta

Posted By: Marty

Hurricane Eta - 11/01/20 11:10 AM

Tropical Storm Eta has formed over the Central Caribbean Sea, becoming the record-tying 28th storm of the season and marking the first time the 7th letter of the Greek alphabet is used!

At 9 pm, the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.0N, longitude 74.2W or about 270 miles Southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and was moving westward at 15mph, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.

The National Meteorological Service of Belize is closely monitoring this system.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/01/20 11:50 AM

Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point.

The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus.

Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today.

Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today and tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/01/20 05:05 PM

Eta Likely Will Become A Hurricane Within The Next 24 Hours

Is Likely To Bring Hurricane Conditions, Flash Floods & Mudslides To Central America Starting Late Monday & Early Tuesday

Crown Weather:

It appears that Eta is about to undergo a round of significant and rapid strengthening as satellite imagery indicates that the storm has developed a consolidated area of very deep thunderstorm activity. In addition, several banding features are noted as well on satellite imagery. It’s going to be “interesting” to see what reconnaissance aircraft find when they investigate Eta this afternoon. The combination of low wind shear, plenty of moisture and very warm waters will lead to a very favorable environment for significant strengthening. The intensity guidance indicates that there is about a 50 percent chance that Eta will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall late Tuesday.

One thing to note about Eta’s strengthening is that the stronger it becomes over the next couple of days, the more it could “feel” the trough to the north leading to an eventual turn to the north rather than a straight westward track across Central America. Also, some of the guidance just does not make sense to me. Some of the model guidance forecast Eta speeding up as it heads across the mountainous terrain of Central America. This is after slowing down and nearly stalling as it makes landfall. The slow down and stall is something that I agree with & I think that it will occur, but given the very weak steering winds at landfall, I don’t see how a potentially very strong hurricane would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coast or just offshore.

The only reason why I can think of why some of the guidance speeds up the forward motion of Eta is that these model guidance are forecasting a weak storm that decouples with the low-level center speeding across Central America. This, I think, is going to be wrong & instead, I think we may be looking at a hurricane and potentially a major hurricane that slows way down as it moves onshore into northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Tuesday.

I think that Eta will probably become a hurricane possibly as soon as later today, but more likely on Monday. I also think that Eta has a shot of rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane during Monday into Tuesday as it begins to slow down on its approach to Nicaragua and Honduras.

At this point, I think that a track that leads this system to first make landfall very near the Nicaragua/Honduras border as a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. From there, the steering currents are expected to collapse leading to Eta to stall along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras on Wednesday into possibly part of Thursday. Even though significant weakening is likely, I don’t think Eta will be “destroyed” as the terrain across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras is relatively flat. By late this coming week, a gap in the high pressure ridge should be enough to start to pull Eta to the north and even northeast. This means that Eta will probably move back over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean where it could be pulled northward towards Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas next weekend (November 7-8).

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NEMO ADVISORY #1: Tropical Storm ETA
SUNDAY, 01 NOVEMBER, 2020, 6:00 PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby informs the general public that Tropical Storm Eta located over the western Caribbean Sea south-southwest of Jamaica was centered near latitude 14.9N, longitude 78.9W or about 285 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua Border. The storm was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and minimum central pressure of 992 mb. The forecast is for Eta to continue moving westward tonight with a decrease in forward speed followed by a slower motion toward the west-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The system is forecast to rapidly strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and is now expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Based on this forecast, Eta is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua late on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

There uncertainty in the forecast after the system reaches the coast of Central America. There is the possibility of the system or its remnants curving west-northwestward then northward and re-emerge over the Gulf of Honduras on Friday. In any event, rapid weakening is forecast once the system moves across the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras and even if the system re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras, it will be significantly weaker. It appears that the most significant impact on Belize will be very heavy rainfall starting as early as Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are possible, especially over southern Belize. These rains could lead to flooding and landslides.

Tropical cyclone watches or warnings are not required for Belize as yet. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely and update you of any changes in the forecast as time progresses.

A flood watch is in effect for the Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Farmers are reminded to secure their crops and assets. People living in flood-prone areas are reminded to put food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. If your home is likely to flood turn off the main power supply. Do not remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters. If where you are not, safe move to higher ground, move away from streams and riverside. Do not play or drive in floodwaters. Do not cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. All drivers are asked to put on their hazard light when driving through rain.

NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert and take action if are at risk to flood. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:

Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;
Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614-7177
Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614-4735; San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;
Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 6143244;
Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365
Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 6148604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;
Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence), Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632 Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for
Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393

COVID 19 SHELTER PROTOCOLS:
All persons in high-risk coastal areas are reminded IF the need arises for you to evacuate and you are (1) not COVID positive, (2) not in quarantine, (3) not awaiting a test result or (4) being contact traced, and (5) not showing symptoms, move early!

You must wear a mask. Know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Note, people showing symptoms will be contained in a separate section of the shelter building.

Hand washing /sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis. Garbage must be properly disposed of. Proper cleaning and disinfection must be done on a regular basis. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and cough /sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MoH) will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers/ Volunteers) MUST use PPE.

PREPAREDNESS TIPS BEFORE A CYCLONE ARRIVAL:

(1) Avoid being near the coast if your home is not safe if you live on the cayes and along the coast be familiar with the evacuation routes. Know which shelter you will need to go to. Make early preparations.

(2) Protect windows with plywood or shutters,

(3) Review your family emergency plan, consider all COVID 19 measures,

(4) If you can afford to purchase non-perishable foods and water. Store additional water.

(5) Keep an extra supply of medication. If a member of your household is bed-ridden, seek medical advice. Notify authorities ahead of time if you have persons in your neighbourhood require special assistance to evacuate due to a medical condition.

(6) Secure your important documents and identification. Save the emergency contact numbers for NEMO, the police, fire, and medical facility in your cell phone. Keep your phone charged.

(7) Pets are not allowed in shelters, make plans for your pets, continue to trim trees, clear drains, and secure outdoor items. Farmers make plans to move your animals to higher ground and stockpile feed when required.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Eta - 11/02/20 11:51 AM

400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline. After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.

The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very similar to the various model consensus predictions.

Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta.

Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

Eta is expected to produce significant rainfall amounts through Friday evening, this rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Eta - 11/02/20 04:13 PM

At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta.

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Crown Weather:

Eta Is Rapidly Strengthening Today & Will Bring Major Hurricane Conditions & A Catastrophic & Life Taking Storm Surge, Flash Flooding & Mudslides To Central America Starting Late Today & Continuing Through Late This Week

As feared & expected, Eta is undergoing rapid strengthening today. Even though the latest NHC advisory has the hurricane at a Category 2 hurricane, I think that it is very likely already at Category 3 strength and well on its way to being a Category 4 hurricane. In fact, the environmental conditions are so favorable right now that Eta could make it to Category 5 strength before it makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. This is expected to be an extreme, catastrophic impact on northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras with extremely major hurricane conditions expected later tonight and Tuesday.

It should be noted that the last Category 4 hurricane in November in the Atlantic Basin is Paloma in 2008. As for the last Category 5 hurricane in November? We have to go back to 1932 for that.

Eta is heading almost due west and seems to be slowing down in forward speed. It is expected that Eta will make landfall near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua on Tuesday morning as at least a Category 4 hurricane. A slow westward track further inland into northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras seems very likely through Wednesday before it turns to the north and northeast. This turn looks very likely now and it means that Eta will very likely emerge into the northwestern Caribbean and strengthen again as we get into Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

All of the model guidance, including the GFS model, the GFS ensemble model, the European model and the European ensemble models, all forecast that Eta will strengthen in the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this week. The individual guidance do have different ideas, however, on where this strengthening storm will head with the European model signaling more of a track towards the Yucatan Channel and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the first half of next week. The GFS model, on the other hand, seems to suggest a meandering track that impacts the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and eventually the Florida Peninsula next week. Unfortunately, it looks like we may not see the end of Eta after it moves inland tomorrow & in fact, this storm may be with us for quite a while.

Forecast Impacts: Eta is expected to bring catastrophic wind damage to northeastern Nicaragua and southeastern Honduras late tonight through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 130 to 150 mph are likely in this area.

In addition to the wind damage, Eta is also expected to bring a catastrophic and life taking storm surge of 15 to 20 feet across the coast of northeastern Nicaragua.

If that wasn’t enough, catastrophic and life taking flash flooding and mudslides are expected beginning later today and continuing until late this week across much of Nicaragua and Honduras. 20 to 30 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are expected.

Flash flooding is also expected across Jamaica, southeastern Mexico, El Salvador and the Cayman Islands throughout this week as Eta remains in the immediate area.

Finally, It is looking increasingly more likely that Eta could be a real big problem again once it moves back out into the northwestern Caribbean late this week into this weekend. I strongly urge everyone in the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas to keep very close tabs on the progress of Eta. There is a very real chance that Eta will bring significant impacts to first the Cayman Islands and Cuba this weekend and then possibly to the Florida Peninsula and some part of the Bahamas sometime next week.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Storm Eta - 11/02/20 06:46 PM

The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a major category 3 hurricane. At 12pm local time Eta was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 82.0W or about 85 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua Border. The storm was moving to the west at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and minimum central pressure of 957 mb. The forecast is for Eta to slow down further and to start moving to the west-southwest this afternoon. Based on this forecast, Eta is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected once the storm starts to move over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras in a westward and then west-northwestward direction.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the motion of the system after 72 hours but there is the possibility of the remnants of Eta re-emerging into the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where it could regain some strength.

For now the major threat from this system to Belize is heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. These rains could lead to flash flooding, river flooding and landslides. Winds will also become gusty and this will produce large swells and damaging waves along coastal areas of the country. No tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely.

--
Ronald Gordon MSc
Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service

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High still holding it down. Looks like it will curve right around the tail end of the dissipating occluded front. or the high breaks down.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/02/20 08:44 PM

NEMO ADVISORY #2: HURRICANE ETA

MONDAY, 02 NOVEMBER, 2020,1:00 pm

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a category 3 hurricane. Eta was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 82.0W or about 85 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The hurricane is moving to the west at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph with a minimum central pressure of 957 millibars. Eta is forecasted to slow down and to start moving to the west- southwest this afternoon and is expected to make landfall along the north-eastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday.

Rapid weakening is expected once Eta makes impact with mountainous terrain over Nicaragua and Honduras. This is likely to cause Eta to turn westward and then west-northwestward. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the motion of the system after 72 hours. There is a possibility that the remnants of Eta will track into the Gulf of Honduras on Friday where it could regain some strength. Tropical cyclone watches or warnings are not required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. The main threat to Belize is heavy rainfall, starting later today and tonight. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches or higher is anticipated especially over southern Belize which is likely to cause flooding and landslides. Gusty winds are expected which are likely to produce large swells and damaging waves along the coast.

A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Southern Belize must brace for and be prepared to respond to severe flooding. People living along rivers and creeks BE WARNED! If where you are is not safe be prepared to move to higher grounds move away from streams and riverside. DONT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. People living in flood-prone areas are reminded to place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. If your home is likely to flood, turn off the main power supply. Do not remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters. Do not play or drive in floodwaters.

Farmers are reminded to secure their crops and assets. Do not cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. Drivers are reminded to put on their hazard light when driving through rain. A small craft warning is in effect. Small craft operators are advised to seek safe harbor.

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

National Weather Service, USA

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).



Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/03/20 10:59 AM

This HURRICANE ETA is now up to Cat.4 just before landfall today.
And will be near to us, Thursday and Friday, with a lot of rain, but only a Depression by then.

The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to monitor Hurricane Eta off the coast of Nicaragua. The Category One hurricane poses no direct threat to Belize; however, heavy rainfall is expected. As of Monday, November 2nd, a small craft warning is in effect for the coastal waters. As the weather disturbance moves inland, it is forecast to reach Belize as a Tropical Depression, prompting a flood watch for the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek, and Toledo Districts.

Eta is expected to produce heavy rainfall through Friday, November 6th pouring up to 20 inches in Belize. This rainfall may lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America, like Guatemala and Honduras.

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At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with gusts to 91 mph (146 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time.

The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/03/20 05:30 PM

At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher, but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

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The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor Hurricane Eta which is now a major category 4 hurricane. At 6am local time Eta was centered near latitude 13.7N, longitude 83.1W or about 30 miles southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving to the west-southwest at 4 mph with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and minimum central pressure of 936 mb. Eta will make landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua this morning. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and the system will start to move to the west and then to the west-northwest over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. This will cause significant weakening.

There continues to be significant uncertainty in the track forecast but several of the models now show the remnants of Eta moving as far west as Guatemala before curving northward and northeastward across Belize and into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a chance that the system could restrengthen into a tropical storm over the weekend as it heads generally northeastward away from Belize. For now the major threat from this system to Belize continues to be heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches are possible. These rains could lead to flash flooding, river flooding and landslides. Winds will also become gusty and this will produce large swells and damaging waves along coastal areas of the country.

No tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for Belize since landfall will be well south of Belize over Nicaragua. However, the NMS of Belize will continue to monitor this storm very closely.
--
Ronald Gordon MSc
Meteorologist
National Meteorological Service

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/03/20 11:05 PM

Hurricane Eta near Cat 5 as it bears down on Central America...

400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening should occur as the center moves inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period.

Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.



Eta smashed into Nicaragua's northern Caribbean coast as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday, unleashing fierce winds that tore up trees and ripped roofs off dwellings.

The hurricane, which intensified rapidly from a Category 1 storm on Monday over the warm waters of the Caribbean, hammered impoverished indigenous communities along the coast, already pummeled by high winds for the previous 10 hours.

"The edge of the eye of the storm is already beginning to touch down," said Marcio Baca, head of Nicaragua's meteorology institute.

Packing 140 mile per hour (225 kilometer per hour) winds, Eta tore up trees and ripped roofs off homes in Bilwi, the biggest town on the northeastern coast, also known as Puerto Cabezas.

"We spent the whole night with strong gusts of wind, accompanied by rain," Kenny Lisby, head of a local radio station, told AFP. "It's possible there will be quite a lot of destruction."

Winds tore down the concrete perimeter walls of the town's baseball stadium, and left a trail of fallen trees as dazed cattle and domestic animals wandered through the streets, AFP reporters said.

The Nicaraguan government reported no immediate fatalities, while authorities in Honduras said that a child died in a collapsed house.

France24.com


NEMO ADVISORY # 3: HURRICANE ETA MAKING LANDFALL ON NICARAGUA

TUESDAY, 03 NOVEMBER, 2020, 4:30 pm

The National Meteorological Service and NEMO continue to closely monitor Category 4 Hurricane Eta which was centered near latitude 13.8N, longitude 83.5W or about 15 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta is moving to the west at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and minimum central pressure of 940 mb. Eta is making landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. The system is expected to move to the west and then to the west-northwest over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras after that the track forecast remains uncertain. Several models show the remnants of Eta moving as far west as the Guatemala/Honduras border before turning northward to north-eastward across Belize and into the north-western Caribbean Sea. There is a possibility that the remnants of Eta could develop into a tropical storm over the weekend as it heads generally north-eastward away from Belize or it could move over Belize before moving out to sea.

The major threat from Eta continues to be heavy rainfall and flooding. Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches with locally higher amounts are anticipated. Winds are becoming gusty which could produce large swells along the coast. Belize is outside the Hurricane and Tropical storm wind field however the outer cayes are currently experiencing an increase in wind and wave action. When the system weakens to a depression as it interacts with the mountains in Nicaragua and Honduras the winds should die down and sea swells are expected to decrease. Waves as much as 5 feet above normal rough weather swells and tide levels is anticipated along the coast. A small craft warning remains in effect. The Coast Guard is standing by for any emergency situation. Fisheries personnel in the outer cayes were directed by their management to shelter in place.

Rainfall is expected for the next five to seven days which can cause dangerous floods in Belize. A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the entire country with particular concerns for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. People along rivers and streams need to start relocating to higher grounds, if you can shelter in your home place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Farmers are reminded to secure their assets. DONT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood, turn off the main power supply.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/04/20 11:04 AM

...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves over northern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease in deep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming an inland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur over the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by that time.

Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a 500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction which is usually a good performer. There is still significant uncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day time frame.

Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta will continue to produce over portions of Central America.

Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week.

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/04/20 05:35 PM

Crown Weather: Even though Eta continues to weaken today, it continues to bring extremely heavy rainfall to Nicaragua and Honduras. In addition, heavy rainfall connected to Eta is impacting areas as far east as Jamaica. This heavy rainfall has already caused severe flooding and landslides across parts of Nicaragua and Honduras and unfortunately this will only get worse.

It is expected that Eta will very gradually turn from a slow westerly track to a northwesterly track by Thursday as an upper level trough of low pressure pulls the storm northward. This trough will then cause Eta to turn to the northeast and head back out into the northwestern Caribbean on Friday. The environmental conditions look favorable for Eta to strengthen again & this will be something that will need to be watched closely starting on Friday. One thing to note is that I’ve noticed the outflow around Eta is actually pretty strong & this is a bit concerning. The reason why is that it says to me the environment may be more favorable than what some of the guidance suggests as that outflow will “vent” the storm leading it to steadily strengthen in the northwestern Caribbean.

The latest track guidance consensus is for Eta to head northeastward across the northwestern Caribbean on Friday and Saturday before it crosses western Cuba as a tropical storm on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Beyond this, it appears that a turn back to the north and northwest as a high pressure ridge may build in to the north and northeast. This could lead to Eta moving northwestward and impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida as a tropical storm from Sunday evening through Monday. Ultimately, the track guidance consensus is for a northwestward track into the Gulf of Mexico with weakening forecast.

It is very likely now that Eta will not only move back into the northwestern Caribbean on Friday, but it also looks likely that the storm will strengthen again as it moves northeastward. How much Eta strengthens remains to be seen, but as I already mentioned, I’m a little concerned about how expansive the outflow still is around Eta. This says to me that the environmental conditions are definitely favorable for strengthening and it’s something that we’re going to have to really keep an eye on.

At this point, I think that the Cayman Islands may be impacted by tropical storm conditions on Friday night and Saturday as Eta strengthens into a tropical storm again as it heads northeastward. I also think that Eta will probably cross either western or central Cuba on Sunday morning as anywhere from a 50 mph to 70 mph tropical storm. With that said, there’s the very real possibility that Eta may be a 75-80 mph hurricane by the time it crosses western and central Cuba. The passage across Cuba will be very fast, so any weakening should be minimal.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/04/20 06:25 PM

NEMO ADVISORY # 4: FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL BELIZE
Flood watch upgraded to flood warning.
WEDNESDAY, 04 NOVEMBER, 2020, 11:00 AM

Tropical Storm Eta which is now inland over Nicaragua is weakening. Eta is expected to continue weakening as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras and it should become a tropical depression by tonight. The remnants of Eta are then forecast to emerge off the coast of Belize on Friday and then move north-eastward into the northwest Caribbean Sea where it is forecast to re-strengthen into a tropical storm late on Friday while it continues to move away from Belize. The major threat from this system to Belize continues to be heavy rainfall and flooding. Some locations across the country have already received over two inches of rainfall and additional rainfall is expected. Rainfall totals of 15-25 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Winds over the open sea are already strong and gusty and this will continue to produce large swells and damaging waves along coastal areas of the country.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. The Mopan, Macal and Belize rivers are rising fast. Communities along the Macal, Mopan and Belize River are hereby being notified that you must be on high alert and take action to save life and property. All are advised if you live along rivers and streams you need to start relocating to higher grounds, if you can shelter in your home, place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Farmers are reminded to secure their assets. DONT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood, turn off the main power supply.

DO NOT: remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters, play or drive in floodwaters and cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. Drivers are reminded to put on their hazard light when driving through rain.

NEMO staff countrywide is on full alert. The following NEMO committees: (1) Human Resource, (2) Relief and Supplies, (3) Transport, (4) Housing and Shelter, (5) Works and Access, and (6) Search and Rescue are on standby to respond as needed. The public, government ministries, businesses, schools, institutions in a flood risk area are advised to take action. WE ARE UPGRADING OUR ALERT LEVELS from a flood WATCH (flooding is likely to occur) to a flood WARNING (flooding is occurring). Be prepared, get ready!

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/04/20 06:31 PM

NEMO officials assisted by BDF soldiers evacuate families living behind the San Ignacio Hospital.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 12:53 AM

At least 1 death as Eta lingers over Central America

Eta, which weakened Wednesday evening to a tropical depression, claimed at least one life and still has days of devastation in store for Central America, before it is set to head toward the US coast.

Reports of Eta's catastrophic damage from rains, winds and flooding in Nicaragua and Honduras have begun to roll in, but it could be days until residents there are able to survey the totality of the impact.

At least one death was reported and more than 2,000 people were evacuated in Honduras because of Eta, the country's Permanent Contingency Commission said on Wednesday. The storm destroyed five bridges,14 roads and 339 homes, the commission reported.

The slow-moving storm made landfall along the coast of Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane Tuesday afternoon. Eta had maximum sustained winds near 140 mph at landfall, but by Wednesday evening had dropped to tropical depression status with 35 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Though weakened, the storm is expected to linger over the region for the coming days, bringing "catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides" over parts of Central America, according to the NHC.

The storm is creeping along at about 7 mph.

CNN

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NEMO ADVISORY # 5:FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BELIZE
WEDNESDAY, 04 NOVEMBER, 2020, 4:00 PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that Tropical Storm Eta has weaken significantly and is now situated on the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. Eta is moving west at 7 miles per hour with winds of 40 miles per hour. Eta is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight. The remnants of Eta are projected to emerge off the coast of Belize on Friday and then move north-eastward into the northwest Caribbean Sea where it is forecast to reform and strengthens into a tropical storm late on Friday while it continues to move away from Belize. The current weather conditions could persist for the next 36 to 72 hours as Eta creeps across Honduras and portion of Guatemala.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. The Mopan, Macal and Belize rivers are rising fast. Communities along the Macal, Mopan and Belize Rivers are hereby being notified that you must be on high alert and take action to save life and property. Areas and or communities that are at risk to or are experiencing flooding are Gales Point, Mullins River Village, Hope Creek, Sarawee, Sittee River, Monkey River, Bella Vista, San Pedro Colombia, Big Falls, Santa Teresa, Blue Creek, San Benito Poite, Crique Sarco, Sundaywood, and Conejo Creek. More communities will experience flooding there as an increase in water running off the mountains and hills.

===================

At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western Cuba this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land during the next day or so, and Eta could degenerate to a remnant low during that time. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

=============

Tipsy Tuna in Placencia. The sea is so high that it's flooding the population business establishment.


Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 04:25 AM

Eta Cumulative rainfall until Friday

This chart is a bit confusing. . . That heavy Red in Toledo is actually the Lightest Rain area.
The Pink is even heavier rain, AND the White & Grey are Extremely heavy rain for Cayo, just south of Belmopan.

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Flood Report and Forecast for November 4, 2020 from the National Hydrological Service

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa C111Z, Sari Antonio. San Roman, and Douglas and downstream to the coast levels are below normal and falling. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are below normal and falling.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at Mollejon and Vaca facilities are above the spillway. the Chalillo reservoir is below the spillway by only one meter. At San Ignacio, levels are about 3.5m above the low-level bridge and rising. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town Flood levels are 0.20m below the Historical Keith stage and .036m below the Historical Mitch stage, this station continues to rise. On the BELIZE RIVER, at Banana Bank and Double Run levels are approaching Flood Stage and rising. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels are below the causeway and rising steadily.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is above normal and rising steadily. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is near Flood stage. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is approaching Flood stage and rising steadily. On the Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER levels are above normal rising slowly. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at Sari Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are near above normal and rising. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan is above normal and rising. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco is above normal and rising.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are near normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS. STREAMS. CREEKS and WATERWAYS IN THE SOUTII. WEST, and CENTRA OF THE COUNTRY AND ALSO THE BELIZE RIVER (especially the Iguana Creek. and Belize River Valley area)

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek levels shows a minimal rise, at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas and downstream to the coast levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are expected increasing to above nonnal levels. Residents are advised that Rivers may not be at Flood Stage but the CREEKS and STREAMS may reach FLOOD stage.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are expected to exceed its spillway at Chalillo facility and above spillway levels will continue for all reservoir facilities over the next few days. At Sari Ignacio, Flood levels are expected to continue over the next few days. 011 the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town Flood levels are expected to continue to rise. On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run levels are expected to continue to rise and reach Flood Stage. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected to continue to rise.

REGION 11 - Increasing river levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun are expected to continue over the next few days. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village are expected to rise and reach Flood Stage. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS levels are expected to increase and exceed FLOOD STAGE. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan Flood levels are expected to reach Flood Stage. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are expected to reach Flood levels. RESIDENTS ESPECIALLY IN WATERSHEDS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUN MAINS - front North Stann Creek to Sarstoon River are ADVISED THAT RIVERS MAY RISE SIGNIFICANTLY this evening into the night. THESE RIVERS ALSO MAY RISE RAPIDLY.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER Flood stage are expected over the next few days.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Friday November 6, 2020 at 12 pm.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 11:45 AM

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical Depression Eta was estimated near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure this morning. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus.

The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 03:43 PM

Today's NAVY Track...

900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight for portions of these areas.

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution, there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in 60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 04:49 PM

Eta Is Expected To Move Into The Northwestern Caribbean On Friday & Strengthen This Weekend In The Northwestern Caribbean

Crown Weather:

Eta is a very disorganized tropical depression with at least a couple of areas to watch for development and strengthening again this weekend. The first area is the weakening low-level circulation, which is now located over southwestern Honduras. The second area to watch is an expanding area of deep thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Caribbean.

The entire forecast of Eta has become a lot more complicated and challenging than it looked at this time yesterday. It’s possible that a new circulation will form within the area of deep convection over the northwestern Caribbean as we get into Friday. Even though it will be a new circulation, it’s likely that NHC will keep the name Eta rather than give it a new name, Theta. Reason being is that it would cause too much confusion.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that we will have a better idea of an exact potential track of Eta in the northwestern Caribbean until a low-level center forms there on Friday. To make things more frustrating is that the model guidance have become of no help of what may transpire in the northwestern Caribbean this weekend.

The latest track consensus guidance has shifted to the south and west with its forecast track and now keeps Eta in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend before moving through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This would raise the threat to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and western Cuba, but lower the threat to the Cayman Islands, Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 05:52 PM

NEMO ADVISORY #6: FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BELIZE
THURSDAY, 05 NOVEMBER, 2020, 9:30 AM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that the current weather conditions could persist for the next 36 to 72 hours as Eta creeps across Honduras and portion of Guatemala.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. The Mopan, Macal and Belize rivers are rising fast. Communities along the Macal, Mopan and Belize Rivers are hereby being notified that you must be on high alert and take action to save life and property. More communities will experience flooding there as an increase in water running off the mountains and hills. The Macal and Mopan rivers are at major flood stage. All residents as warned are advised to relocate to higher grounds. People living downstream and alongside the Belize River are strongly advised to take action to save life.

All are advised if you live along rivers and streams relocate to higher grounds. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR HOME tonight if you know it is likely to flood during the course of the night. MOVE TO SAFETY, SAVE YOUR FAMILY, LIFE COMES FIRST! If you can shelter in your home, place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Farmers are reminded to secure their assets. DON'T WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood turn off the main power supply. Beware of the movement of wild animals and snakes in your area.

Water system contamination is a major threat to health. The public is advised by BWS to store water and that water in flooded areas must be treated before drinking. DO NOT DRINK DISCOLOURED WATER OR WATER WITH A SMELL.

DO NOT: remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters, play or drive in floodwaters and cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. Drivers are reminded to put on their hazard light when driving through rain.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 05:57 PM

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NEMO on high alert as Eta expected to land as Tropical Depression; streets already flooding in San Pedro

Over the past days, heavy rains have poured across Belize as Category 4 Hurricane Eta barreled into Nicaragua on Tuesday, November 4th. The heavy storms have caused flooding on the mainland, triggering persons living in vulnerable areas to evacuate. In San Pedro Town, Ambergris Caye, it has rained unceasingly, flooding streets in most downtown subdivisions. However, no emergencies have been reported, and members of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) continue monitoring low lying residential areas around the island prone to flooding.

More rain is expected through the weekend as Eta moves northward over the Nicaraguan mountains, Honduras, before emerging off the coast of Belize. It is expected to be Tropical Depression Eta by the time it reaches Belize on Friday, November 6th. According to NEMO District Emergency Coordinator for Belize Rural South, Vanessa Parham, there are no infrastructural damage reports to homes. “We caution residents to stay at home,” said Parham. “We have search and rescue teams on standby.” NEMO personnel are on high alert and continue to patrol areas such as San Mateo, which could be affected by the heavy rains. In the meantime, anyone concerned about their safety is advised to seek shelter with relatives as no shelters have been made available. Also, for any emergency, Parham can be contacted at 614-5865, and the NEMO office phone number is 226-4821.

Click here to read the rest of the article by in the San Pedro Sun

Now That's A Lot Of Water
GAIA Riverlodge Mountain Pine Ridge



According to the weather forecast, more rain is expected as ETA will enter our waters by tomorrow as a tropical depression.

Flooding in Bullet Tree Falls

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/05/20 11:21 PM

Eta to recharge over warm waters, then make a run at Cuba and southern Florida

Eta, the storm that ravaged Central America after striking as a deadly Category 4 hurricane, is poised to swing around and head back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

From there, the storm will strengthen and chart a wobbly course that will take it over Cuba, then by early next week, it could threaten the Florida Peninsula. Eta could reach hurricane force again on its way toward Cuba, and at this point, AccuWeather meteorologists expect it to approach southern Florida as a tropical storm.

"It appears that Eta will not just wither away over Central America this week as some part of the diminishing storm's circulation is likely to survive and re-enter the western Caribbean where the process of re-organizing and re-strengthening is bound to occur," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said.

In addition to Cuba and Florida, people in the southwestern Bahamas are urged to closely monitor the progress of Eta, especially as the system emerges from the area around Belize, Guatemala and Honduras late Thursday night or early Friday.

The water over the northwestern Caribbean is some of the warmest of the entire Atlantic basin, as high as 84 degrees, which is plenty warm enough to nurture a tropical system. Eta is forecast to spend about 48 hours over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, which is also enough time to allow strengthening to occur.

Read the rest of the article at Accuweather

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 11:09 AM

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San Ignacio town - and the market area. Photo by Matthew Preston

Tropical Depression Eta continues to wreak havoc; Belize faces disastrous flooding

The effects of Hurricane Eta, now a tropical depression, have brought torrential rain to Belize and flood warnings for communities in the Belize, Cayo, Stann Creek, and Toledo Districts. While Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker Village the effects have only seen flooded streets, in mainland Belize, people living nearby rivers and streams have been heavily impacted by the weather disturbance, which is expected to continue with rainfall through the weekend.

Since Eta’s landfall, Belize has experienced constant rain, as images from areas in the Cayo and Stann Creek show how devastating the flooding has been. Most of the main reports are coming from the Cayo District, where the Macal River continues to rise to the point that businesses near the market area in San Ignacio Town were compelled to evacuate. In rural communities like Bullet Tree Falls Village, the flooding has covered the bridge connecting the community to Santa Familia Village. Other municipalities that have been affected by flooding include San Jose Succotz, Roaring Creek, and Calla Creek. Reports are that the Iguana Creek Bridge on the way to Spanish Lookout is entirely underwater. In addition, jungle lodges in the Mountain Pine Ridge are also threatened by the raging waters of swollen rivers. As the rain continues, some of these businesses have taken further precautions to safeguard their properties and staff.

Click here to read the rest of the article by in the San Pedro Sun

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Bullet Tree Village Bridge

NEMO ADVISORY #7: FLOOD WARNING FOR BELIZE THURSDAY, 05 NOVEMBER, 2020, 5:00PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that the remnants of what was once Hurricane Eta continues to drench Central America. The disorganized center of tropical depression Eta is over Honduras and moving northwest at 9 mph. The depression is forecasted to re enter the Caribbean Sea and potentially strengthen into a Tropical Storm, then move toward Cuba tomorrow. Tonight it is projected to turn to the north and move east of Belize and is likely to continue affecting southern, eastern and central region of the country bringing more torrential rain. This will increase the chances for more flooding in Toledo, Stann Creek including Dangriga, Sarawee, Hope Creek, Mullins River, Gales point, Mahogany Heights, Freetown Sibun, Belize City, Ladyville, and northern Belize. The system is expected to move away from coastal Belize between late Friday evening and Saturday morning when less rainfall amounts are expected but by that time major flooding could occurring in many areas of the country.

All major lines of communication (highways) remain open. Roads that are flooded and or impassable are the Bullet Tree and Santa Familia roads (Spanish Lookout is accessible via Valley of Peace road), Calla Creek road, Santa Rosa road to Calla Creek, More Tomorrow M&S road, Sittee River bypass to Hopkins, and the Coastal Road from Hope Creek to Gales Point junction. All crossings in the Cayo district are flooded or at risk to flood except the main crossings, Hawksworth and the Santa Elena bypass (new) bridge.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 11:22 AM

Now a tropical depression, Eta is predicted to gain strength to become a tropical storm as it heads toward Cuba and Florida in the next few days. It has left behind at least thirteen deaths due to floods and landslides as the storm barrelled Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras. In Belize, heavy rains and flooding continue here, especially in the west where the rivers are rising to dangerous levels. The Iguana Creek Bridge is submerged and the Spanish Lookout community is cut off from the rest of the country.



Hurricane Eta has downsized to a tropical depression causing lots of rain and flooding in Caye Caulker. Some homes has been getting flood out that are low.





Eta is now downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall in Nicaragua as a dangerous category four hurricane. As it moves at seven miles per hour, it is producing heavy rainfall and severe flooding in Belize and other parts of Central America and is forecasted to reorganize and strengthen in the days to come in the western Caribbean. The western area of Belize has been experiencing intense flooding with water rising significantly to dangerous levels. Today, News Five’s Duane Moody headed west and has the following report.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 11:33 AM

At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone.

The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 03:28 PM

Islanders, if you need assistance/shelter, contact Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614-5865.

NEMO ADVISORY #8: FLOOD WARNING FOR BELIZE
FRIDAY, 06 NOVEMBER, 2020, 7:30 AM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that major flooding is affecting most of the country due to TD Eta. The system is expected to move away from coastal Belize between late Friday evening and Saturday morning when less rainfall amounts are expected but by that time major floods will continue to affect most districts as the run off from the high ground will continue. The weather is expected to improve within the next 24 hours as the Depression heads Northeastward away from Belize. All are advised to shelter in place.

The George Price Highway as reported earlier is closed for people trying to reach Belmopan from Cayo and Benque. Bullet Tree, Benque, Arenal, Santa Familia, Spanish Lookout, Valle of Peace Roaring Creek, Dangriga, Hopkins, Sarawee, Hope Creek, Mullins River, Freetown Sibunareas and sections of Belize City and numerous communities in the Belize District are experiencing severe flooding. Roads that are flooded and or impassable are the Bullet Tree and Santa Familia roads (Spanish Lookout is now NOT accessible via Valley of Peace road), Calla Creek road, Santa Rosa road to Calla Creek, More Tomorrow M & S road, Sittee River bypass to Hopkins, and the Coastal Road from Hope Creek to Gales Point junction. All crossings in the Cayo district are flooded or at risk to flood except the main crossings, Hawkesworth and the Santa Elena bypass (new) bridge. If the public don't need to be on the George Price, Hummingbird and Southern Highway and other roadways stay away so we reduce inconvenience, the chance of you being trapped, injured or worse.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT for Cayo, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Most rivers in the country are rising. People along streams and rivers that are flooding or starting to flood are advised to move to higher grounds to save life. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR HOME tonight if you know it is likely to flood during the course of the night. MOVE TO

SAFETY, SAVE YOUR FAMILY, LIFE COMES FIRST! If you can shelter in your home place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Ensure you have an emergency kit, secure your documents and valuables. Farmers are reminded to secure their assets. DON'T WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood turn off the main power supply. Beware of the movement of wild animals and snakes in your area.

A small craft warning is still in effect, don't venture out to sea.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 03:43 PM

Please note that due to ongoing severe weather conditions in Belize we have temporarily suspended all flights. We hope to resume normal operations later today.

Tropic Air

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Canoe Ride in Downtown San Ignacio.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 04:00 PM

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Documentary photographs of the Flood caused by Tropical Depression Eta, Benque Viejo Del Carmen, November 6th 2020
Click photos for more pictures!
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 04:32 PM

Eta Will Strengthen This Weekend As It Heads To The Northeast

Crown Weather:

Satellite imagery today indicates that there is an increase in deep thunderstorm activity just east of Belize. In addition, analysis indicates that Eta is organizing in the Gulf of Honduras at the time of this writing. Even though, there is strong southwesterly wind shear over Eta, it’s northeastward movement in the same direction as the shear will lead to a net environment that is favorable for intensification. This means that I think that Eta will reach the Cayman Islands as a 50-60 mph tropical storm on Saturday and may then impact South Florida and the Florida Keys as a hurricane on Sunday night and Monday.

All of the model guidance, including the track model consensus, HWRF model, GFS model and European model, are all in very close agreement with the forecast track of Eta over the next few days. What they differ on now is how strong Eta may be when it’s near South Florida and the Florida Keys.

It looks quite likely to be that Eta will strengthen as it heads northeastward across the northwestern Caribbean the rest of today through Saturday as a trough of low pressure to the north of Eta steers it in that direction. This means that Eta will bring tropical storm conditions to the Cayman Islands during the day on Saturday.

Eta is then expected to quickly cross central Cuba on Saturday night as that trough of low pressure continues to steer Eta to the northeast.

As we get into Sunday and Sunday night, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the northeast of Eta causing the storm to turn back to the northwest. I think that there is enough evidence in the guidance to suggest that Eta will move far enough northeast over the next couple of days, so that when it turns back to the northwest it will move across South Florida and the upper Florida Keys on Sunday night and Monday as a 75 to 85 mph hurricane.

If this wasn’t enough, we’re going to have to watch the potential track of Eta in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the consensus track guidance and the GFS and European models show a weakening storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico due to dry air intrusion.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 05:00 PM

Gentle waves in Ambergris Caye as Tropical Depression moves away from Belize
NEMO Country-wide Hotline: 936



Caye Caulker this morning....



Water at SP High School.




Benque Viejo entrance blocked


Cayo


Mopan River
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 05:44 PM

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AT CALLA CREEK VILLAGE CAYO DISTRICT NOV 6 2020 ... Getting worried we are like 16 feet away from the river bank, the river is out of control. Water rising up Have us in in your prayers. We are all surrounded by waters.
Click photos for more pictures!


Flood Waters Continue to Rise; Spanish Lookout Cut Off from the Rest of the Country
Now a tropical depression, Eta is predicted to gain strength to become a tropical storm as it heads toward Cuba and Florida in the next few days. It has left behind at least thirteen deaths due to floods and landslides as the storm barrelled Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras. In Belize, heavy rains and flooding continue here, especially in the west where the rivers are rising to dangerous levels. The Iguana Creek Bridge is submerged and the Spanish Lookout community is cut off from the rest of the country.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/06/20 11:26 PM

Rain almost stopped on Ambergris Caye, and Eta is thankfully moving East... hopefully we can start drying out soon! Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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NEMO ADVISORY #9: FLOOD WARNING FOR BELIZE
FRIDAY, 06 NOVEMBER, 2020, 6:30 PM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that major flooding continues as flood waters continue to rise. TD Eta is moving away from coastal Belize. The weather is starting to improve as the depression heads Northeastward away from Belize.

All highways are open. The George Price Highway between Roaring Creek to Black Man Eddy is under flood conditions and is not passable to small vehicles. If the public don't need to be on the George Price, Highway and other roadways stay away to reduce inconvenience, the chance of you being trapped, injured or worse. Most rivers in the country are rising. People along streams and rivers that are flooding or starting to flood are advised to move to higher grounds to save life.

86 persons are currently occupying 11 shelters in Cayo, Belize and Stann Creek districts. Over 150 persons have been rescued and an extremely flooded river night recue continues in Calla Creek tonight.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT for Cayo and Belize districts. The Macal and Mopan rivers in the Cayo District have risen more than 29 feet inundating every village from Arenal to Roaring Creek. It is possible that as much as thirty thousand people may have been affected. Hardest hit communities are Arenal, Benque, Calla Creek, Bullet Tree Falls, Santa Familia, Blackman Eddy, and the downstream villages including Roaring Creek. All crossings in the Cayo district are flooded or at risk to flood except the main crossings, Hawkesworth and the Santa Elena bypass (new) bridge. Most low-lying villages in rural Belize are starting to experience severe flood conditions.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/07/20 11:10 AM

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Flooding expected to continue after Tropical Depression Eta leaves Central America

Tropical Depression Eta continues moving away from Belize into the north-eastern Caribbean. As a result, rains have slowed down, but major flooding is expected to continue in parts of the country. One such area is the western Cayo District, where flooding is intensifying as the runoff from higher grounds will continue feeding rivers and streams. In San Pedro Town, the aftermath of Eta left more streets flooded, battered beaches and several boats underwater. Island fishermen said they did all they could to safeguard their boats, but the overwhelming constant rain was more than their vessels could handle. Some boats were moved ashore, while many were moved to the lagoon side of town. One particular boat owner shared that he kept checking on his boat through most of the night, but in a blink of an eye, it went underwater.

Several streets on the outskirts of downtown San Pedro became almost impassable, following heavy rains throughout the night. Some residents in flooded neighbourhoods became trapped and could not get out of their homes. Personnel from the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) are currently doing assessments on the island, particularly in low lying areas. No major structural damages have been reported on the island as yet. The recent advisory from NEMO states that floods will continue affecting most districts. However, the weather is expected to improve within the next 24 hours as Eta continues moving away from Belize. Although the storm did not hit Belize directly, it left its mark with massive flooding in many municipalities.

Click here to read the rest of the article by in the San Pedro Sun

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New Bridge Holds Up, but Barely

The new Roaring Creek Bridge may be high enough to be spared from the flooding, but commuters are still forced to drive into a flood of water coming off the bridge.
Pictures from Mohit D Surtani
Channel 7

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Footages on the damage done on Caye Caulker from the Tropical Depression that brought a lot of rainfall causing flooding and erosion on the island.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/07/20 11:56 AM

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Eta set to restrengthen

At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (21 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Rainfall in portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Based on that data, and a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

After adjusting the initial position, the estimated motion is a little slower to the east-northeast than before, 060/9 kt. It should be noted that some of the models show the center re-forming to the northeast later today, which is possible given the depression's convective asymmetry. Regardless of these details, the large scale track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A continued east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as Eta moves in the flow on the east side of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta near or to the west of the Cayman Islands later today and over central Cuba tonight and Sunday. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to cut off over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straits. As a result, Eta will pivot around the low, which should cause a slow down and a turn to the north and then the northwest toward the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday night and Monday. As Eta merges with the upper low, a slower motion to the northwest or north is forecast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF models, and is quite similar to the previous one.

Eta is expected to gradually strengthen on its approach to Cuba as it remains over warm waters and in an region of upper-level diffluence. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off in strength, and likely become asymmetric. When Eta interacts and merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida. The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward.

Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

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Here is the ECMWF 72-hour cumulative rainfall projections valid from 6:00 am Friday, Nov 6 through until 6:00 am Monday, Nov 9, 2020.

Cumulative rainfall projected to decrease dramatically over southeastern coastal areas of Belize but amounts of two inches expected over southern Orange Walk District and SW Cayo district. Higher rainfall accumulations projected for southern Toledo District and the headwaters of the Mopan River in El Peten, amounts ranging from 1.6 – 4 inches!

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Tom Owens Caye - 25 miles off the coast of Belize
This is the island that day after the worst part of the storm passed by us in the night.


Flooding in Belize, Roaring Creek
The weather as we all know has been bad and the results of the almost nonstop rain is showing. I was hoping to go further out today since the rain has slowed down but it picked up again.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/08/20 11:58 AM

A catastrophe in Central America

by Jeff Masters

Dozens of people died in Central America, and dozens more remained missing on Saturday from destructive floods and mudslides from Eta, which made landfall in northeastern Nicaragua on November 3 as a category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The death toll remained uncertain, as rescuers were challenged to reach some of the hardest-hit locations.

Some of the worst damage from Eta occurred on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm weakened to depression status and its rains shifted northwest into Guatemala, where thousands were reported marooned on Saturday.

More than 150 people were dead or missing across Guatemala in the wake of Eta, AFP, the French wire service, reported on Friday. Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said that a preliminary survey found 100 people killed and 150 homes buried in a mudslide that inundated the village of Queja in the San Cristobal Verapraz area. More than 1,000 homes were damaged across Guatemala, according to a report from the news agency EFE. Eta’s floods and landslides have also led to at least 13 deaths in Honduras and two in Nicaragua, with eight people missing in Panama, according to AP and the Weather Channel.

With the death toll relatively low so far in Honduras, when compared to similar slow-moving hurricanes like Mitch of 1998 and Fifi of 1974 which killed over 8,000 people each, Eta left behind catastrophic devastation in Honduras, a nation with few resources. Seven-day rainfall estimates from NOAA indicated that Eta dumped over 20 inches of rain along the northwest coast of Honduras, causing destructive flooding that destroyed many roads and bridges, isolating thousands of people. Over 400,000 people were made homeless in Honduras, and Eta could cost 20% of the nation’s GDP, according to one Honduras economist.


Seven-day precipitation estimate for October 30 – November 5, using data from rain gauges, satellites, radar, and computer model forecasts. Eta became a tropical depression on October 31, and during the subsequent week brought heavy rains in excess of 20 inches (orange colors) to portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico, and Costa Rica. (Image credit: NOAA/CPC)

Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/09/20 10:57 AM

NEMO ADVISORY #10 - FLOOD WARNING FOR CAYO AND BELIZE DISTRICTS

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that Cayo and the Belize District are experiencing unprecedented flood conditions. The Macal and Mopan rivers in the Cayo District and the Sibun and Belize Rivers in the Belize District are still at major flood stage. Every village from Arenal to Roaring Creek have been affected. Most impacted communities with devastating damages are Arenal, Benque, Paslow Falls, Calla Creek, Bullet Tree Falls, Santa Familia, Blackman Eddy and other downstream villages including Roaring Creek. The flood waters are now spreading out after breaking the banks of the Belize River. The Belize River Valley is now experiencing severe flooding in Scotland Halfmoon, Rancho Dolores and Lemonal. Also parts of Mile 1, 8 and 12 communities, Hattieville, Freetown Sibun, and Gracie Rock are experiencing flooding. No loss of life or missing persons reported so far. Overall close figures and estimates indicating as much as 500 families are temporarily displaced whom opted to stay mostly with family or friends. There continues to be major flood damage to residential property, utilities, farms and road infrastructure.

A total of 159 persons are in eight (8) shelters. In Cayo 5 shelters are open with a total of 148 persons, one (1) shelter in Crooked Tree with six (6) persons and one (1) in Belize City with five (5) persons. Food, water, hygiene kit, clothing, bedding, cleaning supplies, PPEs, pump sprayers, power washers, construction and roofing material are the main items needed for the affected population.

ADDITIONAL WARNING TO THE PUBLIC: PEOPLE IN BELIZE RURAL CENTRAL AND THE BELIZE RIVER VALLEY, TAKE ACTION AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS AS THE FLOOD WATERS EVIDENCED TODAY AS SEEN IN SCOTLAND HALF MOON AND RANCHO, LEMONAL AND CROOKED TREE IS RISING. Everibadi kud si the wata di raise, we di seh so lang time. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR HOME AND GET TRAPPED, MOVE TO A SAFE BUILDING!

This morning at 10:00 a.m. a damage assessment air reconnaissance (flyover) was conducted with the National Damage Assessment Committee members for Agriculture, Works, Search and Rescue, Lands and NEMO department in the BDF Defender to gain a visual overview of the damages in accordance with the path of the Flood.

The road network has suffered significant damages, especially the George Price and Phillip Goldson Highways and to a lesser extent Hummingbird and Southern Highways. The major highways are passable from end to end. Spanish Lookout is still cut off via the Iguana Creek Bridge, Valley of Peace and Baking Pot Ferry. The entrance to Benque and Succotz on the George Price highway is still impassable. The Coastal Road is not open from end to end. The PGIA had to be closed on the 6th and half day on the 7th of November, 2020 due to water on the runway.

NEMO's Search and Rescue committee led by the BDF and the Coast Guard supported by BATSUB including the Damage Assessment and Relief and Supplies Management committees are in the affected area assisting people in need with food, water, and shelter. The Red Cross is getting ready to support the effort tomorrow. Other forms of relief are being discussed. Support from the UN agencies is being finalized and one such assistance will be handed over this week.

The Coast Guard, BDF, Police, Human Development, the Ministry of Works, NEMO District staff, Public Officers and the Ministry of Health must be commended for their efforts.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/09/20 08:10 PM

This storm TS ETA is effecting a very large area, and it is linked to another, in the north Atlantic.
Eta's centre is small and not very active, but there is about 1,000 mile diameter rotating air now, so potentially a lot of energy. It has been helped over the last week or two by the warm, wet high level air from the Pacific and the cool air coming down from North America, and now linked in with a very large, folded Jet stream wave.

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NEMO ADVISORY #11: CAYO AND BELIZE DISTRICTS UNDER SEVERE FLOOD
MONDAY, 09 NOVEMBER, 2020, 10:30 AM

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and NEMO hereby inform the general public that even though the water is going down in the west, Cayo continues to deal with severe flood conditions. The receding water is rising higher in the Belize River Valley and on the highways affecting communities in its path.

Scotland Halfmoon, Rancho Dolores and Lemonal, Flowers Bank, Isabella, Crooked Tree, Lords Bank, Ladyville, Vista Del Mar, Miles 1, 4, 8 and 12 communities on the George Price Highway including Hattieville, Freetown Sibun and Gracie Rock, take note the flood waters are rising and are expected to continue rise. Eight shelters remain open mostly in the Cayo and Belize rural areas of Rancho Dolores, Lemonal and Crooked Tree

All major highways are open. Spanish Lookout is still cut off via the Iguana Creek Bridge, Valley of Peace and Baking Pot Ferry. The Low Lying Bridge in Cayo remains closed. The Bullet Tree Bridge is open but the Santa Familia road is closed to traffic. The entrance to Benque and Succotz on the George Price highway is accessible. Calla Creek is accessible from the George Price Highway. The Coastal Road remains closed.

All are advised if you live along rivers and streams relocate to higher grounds. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR HOME tonight if you know it is likely to flood during the course of the night. MOVE TO SAFETY, SAVE YOUR FAMILY, LIFE COMES FIRST! If you can shelter in your home place food and valuable items out of the reach of floodwaters. Farmers are continuously reminded to secure their livestock. DON'T WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. If your home is likely to flood turn off the main power supply.

Beware of the movement of wild animals and snakes in your area.

DO NOT: remain in areas where latrines are overflowing due to the floodwaters, DO NOT PLAY or drive in floodwaters and cross flooded creeks and rivers. SIX INCHES OF FLOOD WATERS CAN SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS, IT CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. Motorists are asked to drive with extreme caution when driving the highways and secondary roads. Drivers are reminded to put on their hazard light when driving through rain.

PEOPLE IN BELIZE RURAL CENTRAL, THE BELIZE RIVER VALLEY AND THOSE LIVING ALONG THE BELIZE RIVER AND HAULOVER CREEK IN THE CITY TAKE ACTION AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS. DO NOT STAY IN YOUR HOME AND GET TRAPPED, MOVE TO A SAFE BUILDING!

Search and Rescue, assessments and relief operations continues in the west and eastern regions of the country.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/10/20 11:56 AM

How far south will it go? Its supposed to go back north soon, let's hope so!

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Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.9N 85.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 70 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles. Eta will be near the western tip of Cuba and eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel through today before moving northward. Gradual strengthening is possible though Wed before beginning a weakening trend Thursday.

Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance.

The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance.

Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: Marty

Re: Hurricane Eta - 11/10/20 07:11 PM

Hasn't moved much so far today...

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Accuweather:

Eta will start to move northward later tonight or Wednesday as it begins to be affected by the trough moving out of the West early this week and into the middle of the country. The question will be whether or not this will pick up Eta, or whether it will miss the connection and remain over the Gulf. At this time, we believe that the northward track is likely, and the storm will end up making another landfall late in the week in the vicinity of the Big Bend of Florida. It would then head across the Southeast over the weekend.

USA National Weather Service:

At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Eta has been nearly stationary, and little motion is expected through this afternoon. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However, recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.

Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern is expected to continue through about 72 hours.

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