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Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2014

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2014 - 09/26/14 11:06 AM

Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2014

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Moist and unstable conditions continue this morning... Slight improvement is expected later.
Advisories: None. *Small Craft Caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near showers and thunderstorms.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy to overcast skies this morning with some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain over most areas. Showers and cloudiness will decrease slightly this afternoon and then tonight will be cloudy at times with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south and along the coast. A few thunderstorms and periods of rain over most areas tonight and tomorrow morning .... decreasing tomorrow afternoon.
Winds: East - northeast 5-15 knots becoming gusty near showers and thunderstorms.
Marine Forecast:
Today: Winds: E-NE 5-15 kt with higher gusts.; seas: Light chop - choppy...But locally rough at times; waves: 2-5 ft.; some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain...Decreasing the afternoon.
Tomorrow: Winds: East 5-15 kt.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 2-4 ft.; a few showers and isolated thundestorms (decreasing after midday).
Marine Outlook: (Saturday night): Winds: East 5-15 kt.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 2-4 ft.; a few showers and isolated thundestorms (mainly south).
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 83
General Outlook: Cloudy at times with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the south and along the coast saturday morning and sunday night and inland saturday afternoon.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico.
Click for our daily Tropical Weather Report

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro
Wind & weather forecast for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro: Great information for sailors...
Caribbean winds site: An animated map of Caribbean wind and weather. Click for a green circle or position, showing the exact location longitude and latitude, temp and wind speed.
Current Caye Caulker Weather Information
Belize Hydrological & Flooding Information
Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

  High Low
Coastal 29° C
85° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 32° C
89° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
High - 11:19 AM Low - 5:01 PM
High - 11:11 PM Low - 5:47 AM (SAT.)
Sunrise - 5:42 AM Moonrise - 7:37 AM
Sunset - 5:45 PM Moonset - 7:30 PM

CLICK here and here for detailed weather data

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2014 - 09/26/14 02:44 PM

From Belmopan... 08:30 BZT

Rain, rain over most of the country, most of the night... .I measured 27mm ( 1" ) and it is still raining.. .. .Looks like heavier rain coming in to central Belize, over the next few hours, then after that has past, the rain might let up. ...This is being caused by a small area of ITCZ right above Belize.

The reducing or stopping of rain this afternoon, might only be a brief respite as there is another larger ITCZ near to Cuba. .We may not see any sun today.


Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: September 26, 2014 - 09/26/14 04:35 PM

From Belmopan... 11:30 BZT

This is the area of rotating air I reported on several days ago.. .. After that, it even appeared to be going back towards Africa, presently it appears to be stationary.. . . .Now the Wunderground people have picked up on it.. . . But, to me, it still looks like it is not organising, in fact it has been breaking up today.. . .. But notice their comments below. . .. As I say, later in the year, Oct, Nov, it is more likely for a Tropical Storm to develop in the Caribbean than the other side of the Atlantic.


(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

INVEST 96L NOT A THREAT

A small area of disturbed weather with periodic bursts of convection near 13°N/42°W remains disorganized as it continues to drift WNW at around 5Kts. Although wind shear remain moderate near 15Kts and there actually are indications of some outflow at high levels – the system remains surrounded by relatively dry and somewhat stable air which is inhibiting development. None of the global or dynamical specialized hurricane models are forecasting development, while the typically overdone statistically based intensity models forecasting a slight intensification over the next 5 days. Assuming the system even survives at all, it’s likely to move WNW and then NW before getting absorbed by an approaching upper level TROF.

There are only a couple other Tropical waves across the Tropical Atlantic basin and they’re embedded in generally hostile environments. Meanwhile, I can no longer identify any upstream tropical waves over Africa – a sure sign that the ‘Cape Verdes’ Hurricane Season is rapidly winding down – with the Caribbean region likely to be only area where a cyclone that could threaten the US may yet develop during the remainder of the Fall season.

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