Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018 - 10/05/18 12:05 PM

Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: A moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area.
Advisories: *Some localized flooding is possible in flood prone and low lying areas especially over the south during the next couple of days.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells along with some showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the sea and south this morning then mostly over inland areas this afternoon and over the south and coast tonight.
Winds: North-Northeast | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Choppy
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
General Outlook: For Saturday and Saturday night is for some showers and thunderstorms to occur over most areas of the country.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00 AM Tropical Storm Leslie was centered near latitude 35.9N, longitude 58.3W, or about 445 miles Northeast of Bermuda. Leslie was moving to the NNW at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

  Winds Seas Waves Details
Tonight N-NE 5-15 kts Choppy 3-5 ft SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Tomorrow N-NW 5-15 kts Choppy 3-5 ft SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Outlook E-NE 5-15 kts Choppy 3-5 ft SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

A large cyclonic gyre, also known as a Central America Gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure that covers Central America and the western Caribbean. Within this gyre, a surface trough is analyzed from 20N81W to a 1006 mb low near 15N83W to 11N84W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the central Caribbean between 70W-83W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend or early next week as the system drifts northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. A mid to upper level trough extending over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northwestward over the next several days. As a result, heavy rainfall is likely to spread over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America Friday through early next week.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will continue to pass through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the end of the week before subsiding.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
25° C
77° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
20° C
68° F
High: 6:24 AM Low: 1:23 PM
High: 7:54 PM Low: 1:11 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:38 AM Moonset: 3:18 PM
Sunset: 5:43 PM Moonrise: 3:13 AM (Sat)

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.
CLICK here and here for detailed local weather data

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Current Conditions and weather history for Ambergris Caye / San Pedro

Current Caye Caulker Weather Information

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Posted By: elbert

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018 - 10/05/18 02:14 PM

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a lot of rain and a little flooding. The wind is from the North-NE at 10 mph.
Today's expected high is 87 f.

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018 - 10/05/18 03:41 PM

From Belmopan...

Most of the country covered by cloud this morning. Much of it coming from the NE with high level from the SW helping it to thicken up, but mainly, at present, only clashing over the sea. But there are many patches of rain, presently small and isolated, but could get more frequent and more widespread later. There is a large ITCZ activity area moving slowly across the western Caribbean and may get to Belize over the next few days.

Looks like yet another fain on and off day, which is the type that makes the ground very muddy, and saturated, heavy rain runs off, frequent smaller rain just stays on the surface and soaks in.

Temperatures in Belmopan :
( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 23C 74F Yesterday max. 31C 88F

Ambergris Caye:;loctype:1
Caye Caulker:

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 5, 2018 - 10/05/18 06:35 PM

There are various things of possible interest with the Weather around us.

LOTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND - This disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.

First, that storm called TROPICAL STORM LESLIE circled in Orange, which was never in the Tropics, so should never have been called a Tropical Storm. It formed as a result of a fold in the Jet stream, and just kept going, intensifying at one time into hurricane strength cyclone. But now there has been another Jet stream action, which is stripping off cloud and air as circled in light blue. There is a small, intense hurricane HURRICANE SERGIO in the Pacific which will probably turn to the north and diminish over the next few days. Nothing coming off Africa at present.

But in the western Caribbean, there is a large area of ITCZ activity in what is often called the Monsoon Belt. This sort of activity has more recently been called a Central American Gyre, a large monsoon-type low pressure area, that can produce torrential rains at sea and onshore, and can sometimes develop into a cyclonic storm. I have circled the area in White, with the more intense area in Yellow, which we must watch.

" In meteorology, a cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure. Cyclones are characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of the largest scale.Wikipedia " note how a Cyclone could be anywhere and the largest are often near the north and south poles. So Leslie was really a north Atlantic cyclone and not a Tropical Storm.

Updated satellite view

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