Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019 - 10/15/19 12:10 PM

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Cloudy. A broad area of low pressure will continue to support showers and thunderstorms over the area tonight, then conditions are expected to gradually improve tomorrow. Advisories: *Small craft caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near showers and thunderstorms. Residents living in flood prone areas should be on the alert for the possibility of flooding.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with sunny breaks today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers, isolated thunderstorms or periods of rain will occur mostly over central and northern areas this morning, then decreasing, except for a few more over the south tonight.
Winds: East-Southeast | 10-20 kts | Squally, Sea State: Choppy-Rough
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will decrease on Tuesday and affect mostly northern areas. Tuesday night will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras is not likely to develop any further before it crosses southern Belize later tonight. However, this system will continue to produce heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding over Belize tonight. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

	Winds	Seas	Waves	Details
Today	NE 10-20 kts	Choppy-Rough	3-7 ft	SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Tonight	E-SE 10-20 kts	Choppy-Rough	3-7 ft	SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Tomorrow	E-SE 10-20 kts	Moderate	4-6 ft	A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH; DECREASING.
Outlook	E-SE 10-20 kts	Moderate	4-6 ft	ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

There is a heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the southwest Caribbean, and a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean south of 19N and west of 75W.

Broad low pressure over Central America will move NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wed. Fresh SE winds, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras through tonight. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic through Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Fri, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

	High	Low
Coastal	30° C 86° F	26° C 78° F
Inland	33° C 91° F	22° C 72° F
Hills	27° C 80° F	21° C 70° F

TIDES:
High: 11:02 AM	Low: 4:42 PM
High: 10:46 PM	Low: 5:29 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:45 AM	Moonset: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM	Moonrise: 7:01 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019 - 10/15/19 12:12 PM

Low pressure system not likely to develop any further

A broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras is not likely to develop any further before it crosses southern Belize later tonight. However, this system will continue to produce heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding over Belize tonight.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is over the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019 - 10/15/19 12:37 PM

Far more rain last year in October than this year.

[Linked Image]

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019 - 10/15/19 02:09 PM

Most of the rain in our area is finishing. There is a warm air bubble moving up from the south and there is no more of this low pressure tropical wave of rain in the whole of the Caribbean, it is moving into the Gulf. There is, however, still activity in the Pacific, just off El Salvador, which is very likely to develop into a storm, but will not directly effect us. There is still very significant rain above this bubble of warm air, causing significant rain to north Belize, but should clear in the next couple of hours. I measured 50mm ( 2" ) of rain over the last 24 hours, typical for October, but not excessive and spread over many hours, unlike some rains over the years.

After the rain has cleared in the north, today is likely to become a sunny day with little or no more rain.

[Linked Image]

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 75°F Yesterday max. 29°C 83°F Yesterday Rain 49.2 mm ( 0.29" ) And last night 17mm ( 1.94" )

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 15, 2019 - 10/15/19 05:09 PM

Present Condition: Partly Cloudy.
SERIOUS cistern filling rain this morning but things clearing up. Looks like wind continues all week.

[Linked Image]

It turned into a beautiful day! Photo by San Pedro Scoop

[Linked Image]