1. Reconnaissance aircraft are still finding that Isaias is a hurricane with half a eye wall developed. The other half is being impacted by dry air. I do think that the further west in longitude Isaias travels the more dry air & eventually stronger wind shear it will encounter. This means that IF this storm does come ashore on the Florida Peninsula late Saturday night and Sunday morning, it probably will be a weakening tropical storm.
2. I still think that the center of Isaias will either move just barely offshore of the Treasure and Space Coasts of Florida before turning more to the northeast or riding right along the coasts of the Treasure Coast and Space Coast of Florida before turning to the northeast and heading for the North Carolina coast. This will occur during the day on Sunday. My recommendation this evening is to at least charge up those drills tonight to put up Hurricane Shutters tomorrow from about Port Saint Lucie northward to about Daytona Beach – this section of the Florida coast, I think has a risk of seeing hurricane force wind gusts of 75-85 mph on Sunday. It’s not a sure thing by any means, but there is a chance – better safe than sorry.
3. Further north, the effects of Isaias will depend heavily on the storm’s track over the next 48 hours. If Isaias does move across eastern Florida, it will weaken & will then likely be barely a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic & Southern New England. On the other hand, if Isaias travels just offshore of the coast of eastern Florida, it may still be a hurricane by the time it reaches eastern North Carolina on Monday night and a tropical storm for Southern New England and Long Island, New York on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
I urge everyone from eastern North Carolina northward to Southern New England to keep very close tabs on the progress of Isaias. At the minimum, this will be a widespread heavy rainfall producer, but there is the potential for tropical storm force winds should Isaias take the slightly more offshore track from eastern Florida. For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here