Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020 - 08/07/20 12:13 PM

Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.
Advisories: *Small Craft Caution in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. There is the possibility of localized flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in the south.*
24-hour forecast: Skies will be sunny with some cloudy spells. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop mostly over northern and central areas today, then especially over the south tonight.
Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts, Gusty
Sea State: Moderate-Rough
Waves: 4-7 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: Some cloudy spells with generally isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Activity will increase, along with periods of rain, and spread to most places late Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from August 05, 2020 to August 12, 2020: Observations offshore Belize suggests that sargassum has decreased during the past few days. However a few mats were still noted well offshore the country and there is a medium chance of sargassum affecting local beaches in the coming week. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea, west of 60W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring in clusters in northern Colombia and northern Venezuela, and from 06N to 13N between 77W and 84W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The strongest winds are expected to occur Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night.

  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
27° C
80° F
Inland 32° C
90° F
23° C
74° F
Hills 26° C
78° F
20° C
68° F
Low: 6:14 AM High: 12:06 PM
Low: 7:04 PM High: 12:51 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:33 AM Moonset: 8:52 AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM Moonrise: 9:21 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Centers Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:


Caye Caulker:

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020 - 08/07/20 12:13 PM

Current pause in Atlantic tropical activity won't last long, expert warns

A lull in tropical activity over the Atlantic basin that began right after Isaias's demise on Wednesday is likely to last through this weekend, but the quiet conditions are not likely to last long given 2020's track record.

The Atlantic tropical season has been moving along at a blistering and at times record-setting pace this year. The 2020 season has already spawned nine tropical storms and a tropical depression. Of the nine tropical storms, two -- Hanna and Isaias -- have gone on to strengthen into hurricanes.

"Sea surface temperatures continue to run much higher than normal across the southern part of the Atlantic, much of the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeastern coast of the United States," AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.

"The very warm water and generally favorable winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere are creating lower-than-average surface pressure over much of the Atlantic basin, which in turn has created and will continue to create a favorable environment for tropical development in the long term," Kottlowski explained.

Meanwhile, a train of tropical disturbances, called tropical waves, continues to march westward from Africa. This phenomenon is referred to as the Cabo Verde season, named for the group of islands off the northwest coast of Africa. The Cabo Verde season represents the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season with most tropical systems from late August through early October stemming from one of these tropical waves.

As of Thursday, there were no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin with a pause in tropical activity just getting underway.

"Changes taking place this week will be brief but may last into the first part of next week and should limit tropical development over the main part of the Atlantic," Kottlowski said.

"A large high pressure area that usually resides between Bermuda and the Azores is shifting southward this week," Kottlowski said. "In turn, this will cause the belt of northeast trade winds to shift farther south and strengthen into the zone where we have the parade of tropical waves heading westward."

The pattern change will briefly increase wind shear, or the changing of winds with altitude, and the flow of dry air over the zone where many tropical systems are born. Any tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, that moves along through this zone has a high chance of being torn up and any better organized feature would tend to struggle with development.

"At some point, perhaps toward the early or middle part of next week, a more robust tropical wave may move westward and could spin something up near the Windward or Leeward islands," Kottlowski added.

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: elbert

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020 - 08/07/20 01:45 PM

On Ambergris Caye this morning a 20 mph. wind from the East is creating a rough sea state around our Barrier Reef. The expected high temperature for the day is 90 f.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020 - 08/07/20 02:11 PM

The Sun has been moving back southwards, over the last few weeks, and presently almost overhead at midday, this is tending to concentrate the ITCZ band, back down over our area, so many areas of swellups. The high level from the north, possibly clashing with other high level from the SW and the easterly Caribbean winds. But there was nothing on the satellite pictures last night to indicate that a very large swellup would develop right on top of Belize over night. I measured 100mm 4" or rain over night, this is now easing. So it remains to be seen how the rest of today will develop.

Looks as if this morning will remain cloudy, perhaps with a few more rain areas, but reducing, not clear how it will be this afternoon.

Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 23C 74F Yesterday max. 30C 86F Yesterday Rain 104 mm ( 4.1")

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: August 7, 2020 - 08/07/20 06:09 PM

Present Condition: Partly cloudy on the mainland, mostly clear in San Pedro and the atolls. Relatively moist conditions prevail, but a brief decrease in moisture is expected for most areas tonight.
24hr Forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells during the daytime and partly cloudy tonight. A few thunderstorms and showers will continue to develop over southern belize, while showers and thunderstorms will be isolated elsewhere. A small craft caution remains in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas. There is a likelihood of localized flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas, especially in central and southern parts of the country.

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Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

A quiet afternoon on La Isla Bonita. Would not know COVID is Lurking around. Stay safe everyone; wear your masks, practice good hygiene and social distancing. Photos by the Ambergris Today

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