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Posted By: Marty Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 12:10 PM

Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Partly cloudy this morning, more so in the south. Relatively moist and unstable conditions linger over the area.
Advisories: *A Flood Watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.*
24-hour forecast: Cloudy spells with isolated showers this morning and then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop mainly over central and southern areas this afternoon and mainly over southern areas tonight.
Winds: E-NE, 5-10 kts
Sea State: Slight Chop
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 85
Outlook: For Saturday is for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms wto develop around the coutnry, then shifting mainly to southern coastal areas Saturday night.
Sargassum Forecast from October 13, 2020 to October 21, 2020: Satellite observations show a few sargassum mats offshore the country. There is a medium chance that these mats could drift onshore during this week producing minimal impacts. San Pedro has a medium probability and a minimal expected impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

A broad upper level trough extends across the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola to southern Belize. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 79W and 85W.

A tropical wave is along 68W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are north of 16N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

The monsoon trough extends eastward into northern Colombia from the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 09N84W to 11N73W. Isolated showers are associated with the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will reach the Windward Passage on Sat. A broad area of low pressure may form early next week in the SW Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system is possible thereafter, as it moves slowly northwestward.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
87° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
23° C
73° F
Hills 27° C
80° F
19° C
67° F
TIDES:
High: 9:36 AM Low: 3:38 PM
High: 9:30 PM Low: 4:14 AM (Sat)
Sunrise: 5:46 AM Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM Moonset: 5:44 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

Posted By: Marty Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 12:11 PM
A broad non-tropical low pressure system is located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

We have been monitoring anarea across the western Caribbean where a broad area of low pressure is expected to take shape beginning early next week. Tropical development across this area is expected to be slow and may not occur until later next week. Given very warm water, moist and unstable air and low wind shear, should low pressure form in the region, it has a moderate chance as developing into a well-organized tropical feature. Model consensus the past few days shows this future low drifting to the north, so areas such as Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas and even Florida may eventually see impacts if something develops.

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: elbert Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 02:25 PM
On Ambergris Caye this morning It's sunny. We have a breeze from the East at 8 mph and the expected high temperature for the day is 87 f.

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Posted By: Marty Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 03:28 PM
The Caribbean winds are returning from the NE bringing a lot of cloud with them and there is some high level from the SW causing some clashing, presently along the coast.

Looks as if today will be cloudy for most of the morning and into this afternoon, could be rain anywhere at any time, perhaps not a lot, but some.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 31°C 88°F Yesterday Rain 0.6 mm ( 0")
Posted By: Marty Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 05:02 PM
Rain developing in a lot of areas...

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Posted By: Marty Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/16/20 06:01 PM
Lots of rain in many places. Probably continuing for several hours.

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Present Condition: Mostly cloudy throughout the country. Relatively moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over central and southern areas this afternoon, then mainly over the south and along some coastal areas later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: For Saturday afternoon though to midday Sunday is for similar weather conditions to prevail.

A small craft caution is in effect for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

A flood watch is in effect for the possibility of flooding over low-lying and flood prone areas, especially near rivers and streams along the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains.

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Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill



Just back from town. More and more campaign signs... Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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Posted By: Marty Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 16, 2020 - 10/17/20 10:16 AM
Flood Report and Forecast from the National Hydrological Service for today, October 16, 2020

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, Douglas and downstream to the coast levels are rising steadily. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are non-nal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are below the spillways at Chalillo, Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At San Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and steady. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels shows a minimal increase but remains below the above normal stage. On the BELIZE RIVER, levels at Banana Bank and Double Run are normal and steady. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels have increase minimally but remains well below the causeway.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is increasing slowly. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and falling. The Swasey and Bladen branch of the MONKEY RIVER are above normal and falling. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia are rising slowly. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South is above non-nal and steady. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are above non-nal rising slowly.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and steady.

WEEKEND FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek, Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas levels are expected to continue to rising slowly over the next few days. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill levels are expected to rise to above normal and at Caledonia above normal levels are expected to increase to near bankfull stage.

REGION 9 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the MACAL RIVER as river levels are expected to increase. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town levels are expected to increase to near bankfill Stage. On the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run levels are expected to increase to above non-nal levels over the next few days. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, levels are expected to continue to increase but remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun are expected to continue to increase to above normal levels. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village are expected to increase to near above normal levels. In watersheds on the Eastern Slopes of the Mayan Mountains levels are expected to increase to above normal levels. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is expected to increase minimally over the next few days. An increase is expected on the Swasey and Bladen branch of the MONKEY RIVER. Levels on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls are expected to continue to increase to near above normal levels. The MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South, levels are expected to increase to above normal then become normal and steady over the next few days. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco are expected to continue to increase then decrease over the next few days.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are expected to increase to above normal levels.

The next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Monday October 19, 2020 at 12 pm.
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