Not much cloud around, more of thin, patchy high level cloud, just a few small regular clouds, which will increase over the day, as a tiny trace of easterly Caribbean wind is just starting.
Crown Weather:Caribbean Tropical Development Continues To Look Likely Next Week:
Even though a majority of the operational models have dropped next week’s forecast tropical development in the Caribbean, I still think that it is very likely that we will see tropical development next week in the Caribbean. The model guidance seems to be following a pattern of first showing development then backing off and dropping the development before bringing it back just before it actually forms. This is exactly what just happened with Zeta.
I would be beyond shocked and surprised if we don’t see a Caribbean hurricane late next week.
Even though the operational models have dropped next week’s development, the ensembles still forecast development. The European ensemble model guidance has a strong signal for development between Jamaica and Nicaragua by about Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The GFS ensemble model is slightly quicker with its members forecasting development with many members showing development near and to the south of Jamaica by later Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there is at least a 60 to 70 percent chance that we will see a tropical storm and then a hurricane form in either the central or western Caribbean between about Tuesday and Thursday of next week. In spite of the model guidance dropping the tropical development forecast, the environmental conditions look extremely favorable for this to occur. These conditions include an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, very warm Caribbean waters and La Nina conditions (November tropical storms and hurricanes are common in the Caribbean during La Nina years).
The catalyst for this development appears to be a tropical disturbance that is now located to the east of the Lesser Antilles near 47 West Longitude. This disturbance is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles bringing squally weather on Wednesday into Thursday. This disturbance will then gradually move across the Caribbean this weekend into next week where I think it will develop into a tropical storm and then probably a hurricane.
It is way too soon to determine where this potential tropical system may ultimately go. At this point, I urge everyone in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula to closely watch the progress of this system. Also, any November troughs of low pressure passing to the north of this system could grab it and send it north and northeastward towards Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas and this is something that will also need to be watched closely.