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Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 12:04 PM

Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy skies this morning, especially in the south. Partly cloudy and windy in San Pedro. Moist and unstable conditions prevail.
Advisories: Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy skies tonight. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the country, increasing tonight.
Winds: E-SE, 10-20 kts Gusty
Sea State: Moderate - Rough
Waves: 5-7 ft.
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Wednesday and Wednesday night is for cloudy skies with some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain over most areas.
Sargassum Forecast from June 23 to June 30: Satellite imagery continue to show high sargassum contents over our area and as a result the chances of sargassum landing on beaches across the country will remain high during the next few days. San Pedro has a high probability and a major impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:


Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

The Caribbean Sea

Convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves. Winds are generally moderate to fresh across the basin, with an area of strong east winds in the southern central Caribbean N of Colombia. Another area of locally strong winds is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the basin are generally 4 to 6 ft, but an area of 7 to 9 ft seas are observed where winds are strongest, off the Colombian coast.

Convection that had been associated with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that stretches across Costa Rica and into the far SW Caribbean to around 74W at the coast of Colombia has diminished.

Winds and seas will increase today as high pressure to the northern builds toward the area. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night, and Puerto Rico on Thu.


  High Low
Coastal 30° C
86° F
26° C
78° F
Inland 33° C
92° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 28° C
82° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
Low: 7:08 AM High: 1:11 PM
Low: 8:27 PM High: 2:35 AM (Wed)
Sunrise: 5:21 AM Moonset: 10:08 AM
Sunset: 6:31 PM Moonrise: 10:59 PM




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

There is a robust tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms. This wave is moving westward rather quickly, at about 20 mph. At this pace, it can reach the Lesser Antilles from Wednesday into Wednesday night. There can be some gradual development with this as it tracks across the Atlantic, and it is possible that this can gain enough organization to become a tropical depression prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles, but there is not much support for significant strengthening then. This can at least bring gusty showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and Wednesday night, then across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday.

Another tropical wave, currently found to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, will be monitored later this weekend for signs of development when it gets east of the Lesser Antilles. However, support for tropical development with this wave remains rather low at this time.

For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 12:05 PM

New tropical wave arriving east of the peninsula and Central America. It will keep the potential for rain in the region. In the next few days will be added an Eastern wave and a tropical wave already arriving in the Eastern Caribbean.

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We continue to monitor 95L, a LOW-PRESSURE AREA, surviving Sahara Dust & cool ocean temperatures, and is tracking and is now in warmer sea waters as the Lesser Antilles Islands are approached.

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Posted By: elbert

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 01:13 PM

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have 24 mph winds and rough sea conditions around our barrier reef.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 01:57 PM

The easterly Caribbean winds have not yet got down to ground level. There is a lot of high level activity all over the place, causing swellups and rain in many places. The hurricane or now tropical storm in the Pacific off Mexico, is no longer keeping dry weather around us, allowing the typical ITCZ type swellup activity to develop. There has been some rain in south and some north areas and still some rain about.

Looks as if today will be mainly cloudy, perhaps some sunshine, and a high chance of some rain anywhere.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 24°C 76°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0") Over Night Rain 0.2 mm ( 0" )
Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 04:36 PM

Crown Weather:

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic About 800 Miles To The Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands: Of interest and concern to me is newly designated Invest 97-L, which is located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Satellite imagery today indicated that this disturbance is gradually becoming better organized with some hints of banding trying to develop and a slight increase in the deep thunderstorm coverage.

The environmental conditions around and ahead of Invest 97-L are more favorable than what Invest 95-L is encountering. Wind shear values are at 5 to 15 knots and there is plenty of moist air to work with. Based on this, I think that there is a quite high chance that Invest 97-L will develop over the next few days as it heads westward.

Taking a look at the model guidance – Both the GFS model and the European model is forecasting at least some development from Invest 97-L. The GFS model is much more aggressive with its development and strengthening forecast with the European model showing a much more tame forecast, but it’s at least showing some development.

As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance forecasts development of Invest 97-L before it reaches the Windward Islands on Friday with quite a few members forecasting this system to remain a tropical cyclone as it heads west-northwestward across the Caribbean this weekend into early next week.

Quite a few members of the European ensemble model guidance forecasts development of Invest 97-L as soon as Wednesday night or Thursday with this system crossing Barbados and the Windward Islands on Friday. The ensemble members showing a tropical cyclone decrease once this system enters the Caribbean, which could mean Invest 97-L may undergo weakening this weekend in the Caribbean.

The track model guidance shows a pretty much just north of due west track for the next few days with the guidance showing Invest 97-L crossing Barbados on Friday morning and then the Windward Islands late Friday. A track into the eastern and central Caribbean is then forecast by the track model guidance this weekend.

The intensity guidance all show pretty steady intensification for the next few days of Invest 97-L to at least tropical storm strength.

Here Are My Thoughts On Invest 97-L: I think that the chances that Invest 97-L will become a tropical storm before it reaches the Windward Islands on Friday is at around 75 percent.

The reason why I think this is because Invest 97-L is traveling at a rather low latitude (around 8-9 North Latitude) and because of this, it is staying away from the drier air and the higher wind shear that is located to the north. In addition to this, it looks likely that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will intersect with Invest 97-L late this week and this could give the disturbance an extra boost consisting of energy and moisture leading it to develop.

we’ll have to see what the environmental conditions are like in the Caribbean this weekend when Invest 97-L moves through. Right now, the wind shear conditions across all of the Caribbean are highly unfavorable and if this continues, then weakening would be extremely likely from Invest 97-L in the Caribbean. For now, I urge everyone in the Caribbean to just keep an eye on Invest 97-L.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/29/21 06:08 PM

Present Condition: Mostly cloudy, heavy clouds in the north. Moist and unstable conditions prevail over the area. Operators of small crafts are advised to exercise caution for gusty winds and locally rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times this afternoon with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over northern, inland and central areas. Cloudy tonight and tomorrow morning. Some showers, a few thunderstorms and periods of rain will affect most areas tonight and then mainly northern and central areas tomorrow morning.

Outlook: A few showers, thunderstorms and periods of rain will linger mainly over northern areas on Wednesday afternoon and then increase mostly along coastal areas on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

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The ferry to Spanish Lookout. Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: June 29, 2021 - 06/30/21 10:17 AM

Keeping the tradion alive in San Pedro as town folk honor and celebrate the day of their patron saints, Peter & Paul. The celebration is know as “Dia de San Pedro” as recognition is given to Saint Peter because he was a Fisherman. Early days in San Pedro, everyone depended on fishing for a living.

Today, an early Mass was held for all Fishermen at the Roman Catholic Church, breakfast followed, the procession of the boats and the blessing of Fishermen and their boats for protection at sea and a successful fishing season ahead.

Photos by Marlena Gomez

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A Tuesday afternoon view from Corozal. Photo by Belize Scoop Blogger

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