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Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021

Posted By: Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 12:15 PM

Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021


General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, except in the far north. Mostly clear in San Pedro. A light and relatively moist easterly airflow dominates our weather.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Today sunny skies with cloudy spells. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop mainly along the coast during the morning and then moving to inland areas by afternoon. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated.
Winds: Light + Variable
Sea State: Slight
Waves: 1-3 ft
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86
Outlook: For Tuesday and Tuesday night is for partly cloudy to cloudy skies, showers and thunderstorms will be generally isolated during the day, then expect a few more during the night.
Sargassum Forecast from September 28 to October 6: There is a medium chance of sargassum affecting beaches, especially over northern Belize, during the next few days. San Pedro has a medium probability and a moderate impact.
Tropical Weather Outlook: At 9:00pm last night, Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 17.8N, longitude 43.0W, or about 12606 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. - Hurricane Sam was centered near latitude 39.3N, longitude 51.2W, or about 520 miles South of Cape Race Newfoundland. Click for more of the tropical weather outlook...

Marine Conditions:

The Caribbean Sea

There is one tropical wave in the Atlantic, and one in the Caribbean.

An upper level trough across the western Atlantic Ocean along 76W extends SW across the Bahamas and central Cuba and into the western Caribbean to southeast coastal sections of Nicaragua. This is providing unstable conditions across much of the central Caribbean, where scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from the SW Caribbean N-NE to beyond 20N between 68W and 75W. Small clusters of widely scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere across the NW and SE portions of the basin.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Fresh to strong trade winds cover the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean east of 76W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft. Generally moderate trade winds are elsewhere. N-NE swell generated from Sam is moving through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean.

High pressure offshore of the middle Atlc coast will slide slowly eastward through Wed. This pattern will produce fresh to strong trade winds across the NE and central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds will then persist across the central Caribbean through Thu. Moderate N to NE swell will affect the tropical Atlc waters and Atlc passages through Wed.


  High Low
Coastal 31° C
88° F
26° C
76° F
Inland 34° C
93° F
22° C
72° F
Hills 26° C
79° F
20° C
68° F
TIDES:
High: 8:20 AM Low: 2:55 PM
High: 8:57 PM Low: 2:50 AM (Tue)
Sunrise: 5:43 AM Moonset: 4:44 PM
Sunset: 5:38 PM Moonrise: 4:53 AM (Tue)




Four Day Weather Outlook:



For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/caye-caulker-village

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 12:15 PM

...SAM NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...

At 5 a.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Sam was located over the north Atlantic Ocean about 465 miles (745 km) south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to slow down over the far north Atlantic southwest of Iceland around midweek. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts - a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Sam is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). Gradual weakening is forecast to occur during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday.

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A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers continues over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters in association with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are not expected to be especially conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward through late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here
Posted By: elbert

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 12:31 PM

On Ambergris Caye this morning we have a calm sea condition around our barrier reef after an evening of rain. The breeze is from the NE at 6 mph. Today's expected high temperature is set at 88f.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 04:06 PM

The easterly Caribbean winds again have lots of small clouds in it, but there is a strong northerly high level air flow, ever now and again clashing with lower clouds. There are many small rain showers, mainly out at sea, but quite a few over land.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, after the low cloud/fog has burnt off, but there will be many normal clouds and a high chance of rain showers anywhere.

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Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last Night 26°C 79°F Yesterday max. 32°C 90°F Yesterday Rain 4 mm (0") Over Night Rain 0 mm (0.2")
Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 04:40 PM

Crown Weather:

A large section of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are highly unfavorable for tropical development due to very strong wind shear. This strong wind shear is likely to continue for at least the next few days and will limit any development chances this week.

Beyond this, I do still think that the development chances will increase in the Caribbean starting around October 15th or so and especially as we head into the last third of October. This is supported by both the GFS ensemble model guidance and the European ensemble model guidance, which both show an increase in members forecasting development in the area from the central and eastern Caribbean to near the Bahamas beginning around October 15.

The reason for the delay in the increase of tropical development chances by a few days seems to be due to an unexpected delay of the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which seems to now be expected to enter the Atlantic Basin during the middle and end of next week.

Even with the delay in the arrival of the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, the overall weather pattern still looks favorable for tropical development, especially in the Caribbean. So, I think that there’s at least a 50-50 chance that we will see a significant tropical system form in the central or western Caribbean between about October 15 and October 23.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 04:55 PM

Flood Report and Forecast for October 4, 2021

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, levels are normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels at all BECOL facilities remains below the spillways; and at San Ignacio, levels remain below the low-level bridge and steady. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are above normal and falling,

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, levels are normal and steady and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels remain below the causeway and steady.

REGION 11 - The SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun is normal and steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON at Gales Point Village is normal and steady. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels are normal and steady. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, levels are above normal and falling. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, and the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South levels are normal and steady. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan and on the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, levels are normal and steady.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER, levels are normal and steady.

FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - On the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek North, and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman, and Douglas to the Coast, and on the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia, no significant change in river levels is expected.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, at all BECOL facilities, reservoir levels are expected to remain below the spillway; and at San Ignacio, levels are expected to remain below the Low-level bridge. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to decrease to near normal levels.

On the BELIZE RIVER at Double Run, no significant change is expected; and on the CROOKED TREE LAGOON, lagoon levels are expected to remain below the causeway.

REGION 11 - On the SIBUN RIVER at Freetown Sibun, and on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, no significant change in levels is expected. In watersheds on the EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MAYAN MOUNTAINS, and on the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge, no significant change in river levels is expected. On the Swasey and Bladen branches of the MONKEY RIVER, normal levels are expected. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank, normal levels are expected. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls South, levels are expected increase minimally. On the MOHO RIVER at Blue Creek South and Jordan, levels are expected to increase minimally. On TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco, a minimal increase in river levels is expected.

REGIONS 13- On the SARSTOON RIVER, normal and steady levels is expected.

THE NEXT FLOOD REPORT AND FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON OCTOBER 6, 2021
Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 06:03 PM

Present Condition: Mostly cloudy, especially offshore in the south. Partly cloudy in San Pedro. A relatively moist northeasterly airflow prevails over the area.

24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring mostly over inland areas this afternoon, gradually decreasing. Then activity will be isolated for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Showers will be generally isolated along with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, gradually increasing over the south and coast during the night into Wednesday morning.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/04/21 07:14 PM

Rain showers all over the place, some heavy. Causing uncomfortable high humidity 85% or so.

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Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/05/21 10:19 AM

Bonacca Cay, Guanaja, Honduras has just been devastated by a horrific fire that has destroyed over 150 homes. In the blink of an eye, dozens of families have lost everything. Many Belizeans live in this sanctuary paradise. In a country like Honduras, where insurance is rare, these people have lost everything.

If you are coming down THIS WEEK & can spare some luggage space to a bring family size camping tent, inflatable mattress, or solar lights camping pans & essentials, it could literally be life saving.

These are good people, and they will not have any government support, as the central government has no history of supporting Bay Islanders.

If you can bring supplies, @Daine Wood Etches is actively collecting items to send IMMEDIATELY. Thank you!!!

Posted By: Marty

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 4, 2021 - 10/05/21 10:28 AM

Monday at Estel's... Photo by San Pedro Scoop

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Monday afternoon view from Corozal. Photos by Belize Scoop

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A view in Hopkins Monday. Photo by Hopkins Uncut

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