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Posted By: SP Daily HURRICANE EMILY - 07/15/05 07:21 PM
[Linked Image]

WTNT35 KNHC 151749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...EMILY WEAKENS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 395
MILES...635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR BUT A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/15/05 11:08 PM
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 04:05 AM
WTNT35 KNHC 160252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 04:07 AM
WTNT35 KNHC 160252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 06:02 AM
the navy site at:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

is usually very accurate. they have this right now:

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 06:28 AM
[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 08:07 AM
Blogs on Wunderground pretty interesting... latest:

>JULY 16 12:03AM CDT

Hurricane Emily continues to intensify, with an eye wall replacement about to commence based on the multiple wind
maxima found by the RECONS flown this evening. The latest 10,000' max wind in the NE quadrant was 128KTS,.just
after the last eye pressure measurement of 954mb. The current pressure has stabilized at 955mb, and seems to confirm
the replacement cycle is indeed about to commence. Interestingly, the last 3 fixes show a NW movement - HOWEVER,
with the multiple eye walls this evening, this could be a bit misleading. Some information that
is not readily available - such as how close the dropsonde was to the actual pressure and wind center and
-- especially in a storm under going structural changes -- can lead to 'apparent' course
changes that are not indicative of the overall tracking motion. It will take a few hours to see if this RECON
based fix is representative of a real course change.

Emily is now passing over the highest total heat content water in the Caribbean, but from the below chart,
you can see the entire Caribbean has all the heat energy the storm can use. But the Gulf of Mexico chart is
has significantly less total heat available. The Depth of the 26degC isotherm is also much shallower, overall,
then in the Caribbean. So while I think Emily has a fairly good shot at touching CAT 5 this weekend, between
the Yucatan itself, and the lower available heat energy in the Gulf, CAT 2 to CAT 3 should be about it.

The Storm is heading WNW at a fairly quick pace 18KTS, and all the evening model runs have returned to their
original clustering of forecast tracks across the northern Yucatan. This is one of the cases where the NHC, and
rightly so -- does not go 'chasing' the forecast model tracks after each model run where they 'bounce around' a lot,
especially if there is no logical reason to go against the new models run. The only interesting player in the picture
is still that low over the western Caribbean, which is weakening, but does show up on the water vapor imagery.
It could influence the steering currents in some fashion, giving Emily a 'nudge' to the north for awhile on
Saturday, with the net result being a track very close to Yucatan Channel itself. But, most of the evidence,
including the unusually fast forward motion for such a strong hurricane, increases the overall probability
the storm will move across the Yucatan, starting Sunday night. From there, the extreme southern tip
of Texas southward for about 100 miles seems to be the most likely area for landfall on Wednesday.
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 09:47 AM
NAVY track remains the same as above...
===================

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 21


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 15, 2005



Emily has abruptly strengthened again...which we know thanks to
frequent fixes from the United States Air Force reconnaissance
mission tonight. Since about 18z this afternoon...the central
pressure has fallen 15 mb to 954 mb. Very recent maximum 700 mb
flight level winds from the aircraft were as high as 128 kt in the
northeastern quadrant...up from 108 kt in that same quadrant just a
couple of hours ago. The flight level data also indicate double
wind maxima at about 8 and 50 nmi...suggesting concentric
eyewalls...so a replacement cycle could occur within the next
several hours. However...we are not able to forecast such
structural changes...so I will keep the forecast intensity at 115
kt through the next 48 hours while Emily is over the increasingly
warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. The intensity could of
course fluctuate quite a bit during this period...which is common
in major hurricanes. Emily might weaken somewhat if it spends
enough time over the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.
The initial motion...smoothing through some wobbles during the past
several hours...is estimated at 285/16. The official forecast
takes Emily on much this same heading throughout the five-day
period...with a gradual and slight Bend to the right...and a little
increase in forward speed in the western Caribbean when Emily is
expected to be directly south of the mid-level ridge over the
southeastern United States. This track is similar to the previous
advisory...although it is now on the north side of the model
guidance suite which has this time shifted south. As we usually do
when the models are shifting back and forth...I will only make a
slight adjustment...a little southward...to the previous official
forecast.


Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/0300z 15.1n 74.2w 115 kt
12hr VT 16/1200z 15.8n 76.6w 115 kt
24hr VT 17/0000z 17.0n 79.9w 115 kt
36hr VT 17/1200z 18.6n 83.2w 115 kt
48hr VT 18/0000z 20.1n 86.4w 115 kt
72hr VT 19/0000z 22.5n 92.0w 85 kt
96hr VT 20/0000z 24.5n 96.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 21/0000z 26.5n 101.0w 50 kt...inland
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 01:44 PM
WTNT35 KNHC 161144
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 03:50 PM
WTNT35 KNHC 161430
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 05:16 PM
Preliminary phase issued for Hurricane Emily

This evening the Prime Minister and the National Emergency Management Committee, NEMO, declared the preliminary phase of Belize's Hurricane Plan effective as of six p.m. This means that all those living at the cayes are asked to move to the mainland on Saturday and anyone living along low-lying coastal areas should start preparing and also consider evacuating to higher ground. Belizeans all over the country are advised to take appropriate precautions and be prepared to move if a hurricane watch is declared for other areas of the country tomorrow. News Five's Jacqueline Woods was at the Met office this afternoon for an update from Belize's top weatherman.

Carlos Fuller, Chief Meteorologist
"The main system guiding Emily right now is an area of high pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is ridging from the Atlantic towards the Gulf of Mexico. If this system remains strong, then Emily will keep a more southern track. Whereas if the system, this high pressure were to weaken or move out then it would take amore northern track, so this is really the guiding feature right now. The computer models keep trying to weaken it, but in fact that is not occurring, it keeps strong so its keeping more on this west track of oppose to a north westerly track."

If Emily continues on its present movement towards the west, she should start affecting the country as early as Sunday morning. Although a gradual turn to the west north-west is expected within the next twenty fours.

Carlos Fuller
"If Emily takes the more southerly track and continues moving at twenty miles per hour indeed we are talking about landfall between six p.m. Sunday to midnight Sunday. So late Sunday will be landfall. However, of course tropical storm force conditions, hurricane force conditions will begin even earlier than that. Maybe from Sunday morning, the outer part of Belize, Lighthouse Reef, Caye Caulker, San Pedro, they will probably start experiencing tropical storm force winds on Sunday morning, if as I said, it keeps this southerly track and it remains that same intensity, then we are talking about a Sunday affect."

No doubt Belizeans are keeping their fingers cross that the hurricane does take a northerly track. The Met Service has certainly been busy informing concerned citizens and businesses on the hurricane movement.

Carlos Fuller
"We have been getting a lot good phone calls from the media, so we have been able to update the public through the various media yesterday and today. In addition, resort operators, they have tourists in there, they have tourists coming in, they would like to get prepared if that is necessary or even recommend cancellation of some of these bookings. People who have concerns out at sea are also concerned because they are the ones who'll have to act first, people living out at Lighthouse Reef, Hunting Caye, and so on, they will have to be moving before anybody else. So these are the people who are really concerned at this stage."

People living in low-lying areas and especially in the cayes are being advised to start moving on Saturday just as a precautionary measure. However, the general public is being advised to start stocking up on supplies.

Carlos Fuller, Chief Meteorologist
"I would certainly encourage them to start getting non-perishable things. Don't stock up on bread and four and so on that is going to go bad on you if you don't need it. However, can food, sausage and so on is always good to have and then you can always use it later on, it won't spoil very quickly. So that is the kind of stuff I would recommend people stock up on now, and in the event that it become necessary tomorrow to then really prepare, then we can consider the plywood and that sort of material that you'll only use this year."

Today, the Belize Weather Bureau's building was fitted with its hurricane shutters. The staff has gone into its emergency mode.

Frank Tench, Weather Forecaster
"It makes me more frustrated rather than nervous since we just have to wait on all the latest information we get before we can make a definite decision. And that decision about what the storm is gonna do, we want to be able to inform the public in a proper and timely manner about what to do. Since it's a fast moving storm, we also need to get this information out rather quickly to the public since we're pretty close to a weekend and people would need to know as early as the end of today what the storm is doing so that they can either start to make plans this evening or as latest as tomorrow morning. So that for me is the biggest concern with this storm."

Ann Gordon, Meteorologist
"We have an able staff, Mr. Tench and I are working as a team together and he has a lot of experience also in this field, so I'm not really concerned, because we work together as a team. And we have one purpose and one focus, to give a timely forecast, reliable, so that it could reduce the lost of lives and property in the event of a hurricane."

Jacqueline Woods for News Five.

As of six o'clock Emily had re-strengthened to a category three hurricane with winds of one hundred and fifteen miles per hour. She was moving west-northwest at eighteen miles per hour and was located three hundred and five miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. News Five will be airing Tropical Weather Updates every hour on the hour until the danger has passed. At least one event, the Antique and New Car show, has been postponed until the end of the month as a precaution.
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 06:56 PM
airport is quite busy... line 4 deep past Moncho's... last water taxi out is at 3:00...
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 06:57 PM
very critical line here:

AND EMILY COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.


----------------------------
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT
PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
CANCELLED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 08:08 PM
San Pedro Police Officers and Belize Defense Force Officers will be stationed on the north side of the San Pedro River by 5 p.m. Saturday, 16 July.


They will be at Ed and Krystyna Walter's home in the Buena Vista area, between White Sands and El Pescador. Formerly Col. and Amanda Martin's home.


Officers Dwayne McCullough and Gerald Sutherland (600-1621) of the North Shore Patrol are expected to be among those stationed on this side.


The Hurricane Supply Boxes were hurriedly made ready for them this morning.


To increase their effectiveness they need:


- use of a gas golf cart(s) for patrol, pls call Officer Sutherland 600-1621 if available


- use of a SMART phone (better reception on the north side) pls call 600-1621


- use of large working flashlights


- if you have VHF or marine radio capability, pls Reply with your name and location so that the officers may check in with you for news if the electrical power supply is interrupted


- your cooperation and support throughout, with maybe an energy bar or so too


NEMO Headquarters is San Pedro Town Hall. 226-2198. Medical assistance will be available there during the storm. Before and after the storm please go to your normal clinic. It is likely that you will have to provide your own transport. The ferry will not be operating during the storm.


Jeff and Francis at Casa Azul, 226-4012, took Dr. Keith's First Responder Course last Sept.


If you have VHF, marine, ham, or other radio capability, please let me know so that I can notify other people in your designated area. Otherwise you might make reports to the Area Leaders for your area so that they can answer other's questions.


NEMO urges everyone to take Emily very seriously. They are requesting that those who can go to a more secure area somewhere on the mainland.
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/16/05 10:16 PM
Radio says no lines at Tropic now...boats may be running later, they're checking on that. Lots of plywood still being installed. Lots of traffic. Distributors out of 5 gal. water...closing soon.
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 02:08 AM
WTNT35 KNHC 170000
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY
SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT
TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM
THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH
POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 04:00 AM
WTNT35 KNHC 170246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 08:53 AM
WTNT35 KNHC 170551
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES... 175 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 415
MILES... 670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 10:45 AM
Extremely dangerous Emily heading for the Yucatan
2:40 a.m. ET Sun.,Jul.17,2005
T. Ballisty, The Weather Channel

Reaching maximum sustained winds of 155 mph on Saturday afternoon, Emily beat out Dennis just a week later for the honor of strongest July hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. This early Sunday morning, Emily's sustained winds have only slightly decreased to 150 mph still maintaining Category 4 status. Emily continues to rapidly move to the west-northwest at 18 mph heading into the western Caribbean. The torrential outer rain bands may dump 4 to 7 inches over the Cayman Islands. Flooding and mud slides are possible. The rain bands may possibly produce a few wind gusts to near hurricane strength on Grand Cayman Island Sunday morning. A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and for the Cayman Islands. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the Caribbean side of the Yucatan from Cabo Catoche southward to Chetumal, MX including the resorts of Cancun and Cozumel. A hurricane watch is in effect for the northern coast and Gulf side of the Yucatan from Cabo Catoche west and south towards Campeche, MX. Finally, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern half of coastal Belize.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, an area of low pressure 550 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has little potential to develop into a depression during the next day or so as it pushes northwestward. More likely it will remain out over open waters and weaken.
Posted By: Marty Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 10:52 AM
from Wunderground blogger Steve Gregory...
** EMILY STEADY STATE - EYE WALL REPLACEMENT - COZUMEL FIRST STOP **
Posted at 5:24 AM GMT on July 17, 2005
JULY 17 12:11AM CDT --

My earlier post regarding signs of an eye wall replacement cycle starting seem to be confirmed as the latest RECON
shows a dramatic rise in the pressure to 939mb (up 10mb in 3 hours) with the eye wall going from 10NM to an elliptical
15NM by a16 by 8 . So concentric and reforming convective rings, with the outer one apparently about 15NM wide,
has allowed the pressure to rise somewhat.. The normal diurnal variation in convection is also approaching its minima, and it
certainly seems that the eye wall replacement, and resurgence in convection, will all come together during the morning,
leading to a resumption in the deepening of the storm later Sun morning and early afternoon. The warmest heat content
ocean lies ahead of the storm, and it is reasonable to expect, absent any obvious signs, that Emily will come close to or
reach CAT 5 status within 18 hours.

The high level outflow above the storm is well structured, with excellent outflow to the north. I noted that there really is some
significant shear atop the storm, emanating from that low to it's west, and very unusual to see this not have any noticeable
impact on the hurricane. It makes one wonder if we would have had a strong CAT 5 by now if this storm had the outflow
characteristics of Dennis!

The model runs, including the latest 00Z run of the GFS, have not shown any significant deviation, and confirm
a projected landfall over northeast Yucatan, probably just south of Cozumel. The storm should then weaken as it emerges off the
NW coast of the Yucatan, with a second land fall just south of the Texas/Mexico border. With such solid consistency
shown between model runs, and the fact that extra environmental data was collect this evening from the C130
research aircraft, and G-IV surveillance missions, the models had more data o initialize with, and presumably will perform better than normal.

The next update will be around 9AM Sunday, CDT

Steve
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 01:02 PM
WTNT35 KNHC 171143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO
CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 03:52 PM
WTNT35 KNHC 171433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NEW HURRICANE WARNING FOR MEXICO...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES... 265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: SP Daily Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/17/05 07:07 PM
WTNT35 KNHC 171742
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS EMILY SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT STILL AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 145 MPH...
235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
THEN EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 46 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Tradewind Re: HURRICANE EMILY - 07/18/05 01:28 AM
Even weaker now as it approaches Yucatan at 135mph - pressure 951.


Belize probably experiencing the worst of the weak west side right now.

Should landfall just south of Cozumel and just north of Tulum. Cozumel should take hard 135mph shoulder of storm on south end in a few hours.

I expect Cancun will only get a brush at tropical storm force 45 miles to the north.
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