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Where will Wilma go?

Posted By: SP Daily

Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 09:27 PM

There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. A major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.

I'll have another update tonight, as conditions warrant.

Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan:

"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 10:17 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 192046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 10:35 PM

CHECK BOLD AREAS

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005


agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today.
The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.


The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan
...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.


Forecaster Franklin
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 10:42 PM

[Linked Image]

That dotted line is the present actual course
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 10:44 PM

LOVEfm

WILMA TURNS DEADLY, MOVES CLOSER TO BELIZE


Hurricane Wilma turned into the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded today. Wilma is a Category Five storm with hundred and seventy-five mile-per-hour winds and heavy rains. The storm has already been blamed for killing at least twelve people in the Caribbean. Wilma's central pressure has dropped to eight hundred and eighty-two millibars, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. The strongest storm on record before before today was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, whose central pressure measured eight hundred and eighty-eighty millibars. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. To get the latest on Wilma, Love News spoke a short while ago with Chief Meteorologist Carlos Fuller.

Carlos Fuller:



At midday the center of Hurricane Wilma was near 17.5 degrees north latitude and 83.5 degrees west longitude. That position is about three hundred and ten miles due east of Belize City and two hundred and ninety-five miles east of San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. Wilma is weakening slightly, maximum sustained winds have decreased to one hundred and sixty-five miles per hour. However, it is still an intense hurricane of category 5. Hurricane force winds extend outwards fifty miles from the center and tropical storm winds extend outwards a hundred and sixty miles from the center. Wilma is moving towards the west, northwest at seven miles per hour; however, as it is doing that it is wobbling around a small center and hence not moving as rapidly as you would expect. Wilma continues to move as we are expecting and we are expecting an even more turn towards the northwest within the next twenty-four hours.

Marian Ali:



This wobbly movement as you were mentioning, was this projected?

Carlos Fuller:



Yes, this is on track and it is what we are expecting it to do.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/19/05 10:57 PM

3 p.m. Hurricane Wilma, Belize Time

They Eye of Wilma has a definite wobble pattern
roughly a 25 mile rotational zig zag.

At this hour, the wobble has carried the eye north
about 12 miles roughly even with Long Caye, north of
St. Georges Caye on that latitude. The Westward
movement averaged out, continues to be about ten mph.
It is somewhere in the vicinity of Swan Island.
Posted By: J9rancher

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 12:19 AM

I think the breakdown of the projected path models does not bode well. What would two days of 160 mph winds do to San Pedro? I grew up in South Florida and rode out many hurricanes but this one could be very,very serious. I hope people do have evacuation in mind if it does not turn north very soon. There was a lot of denial in New Orleans, I was there too long.
Posted By: sunfish

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 01:03 AM

We already had two days of 150 mph winds with Keith....so we have an idea of what it would do thanks....
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 03:08 AM

from up north....
"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning
we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is
almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We
have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer.
The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is
boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go
since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan
with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in
the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to
panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and
Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price
poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 03:58 AM

WTNT34 KNHC 200235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 04:33 AM

Just a quick update on the latest model runs: The 18Z (2 pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models have swung back towards Florida, and predict that the Yucatan may only get a quick (but severe) blow. The amount of weakening that might happen with Wilma over the Yucatan for just 12 hours or so is difficult to gauge. Also, there is the possibility of a threat to New England--the latest GFDL model run has Wilma hitting the Cape Cod area as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night. I'll wait for the 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of the models that will be available in the morning before commenting more. The degree of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast of Wilma remains very high.

Jeff Masters
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:18 AM

Posted By: SteveGregory at 3:47 AM GMT on October 19, 2005


Once I confirmed that there was much a do about nothing with this 'radical track change' talked about earlier by others -- I
had to conduct some other business and just skipped the 8PM update. I'll be issuing a new, full update during by midnight
{Chicago time). The next RECON just took off about 30 minutes ago m- and I'll stay up for the first Vortex reading -- and
that's about it.

Bottom line -- the track is pretty much back where it was - not going inland into the Yucatan and thrashing around for 2
days. The only basic thing that has changed, but we saw that in the 12Z run this morning, was a generally slower speed
during the first 72 hours. So landfall in Florida is delayed by up to 24 hours or so. But it is still 4 days away.

Likely to be a low end Cat 3 Major hurricane. The NHC Track they just issued is exactly what I would of issued.

Be back with a full update around 11:45PM
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:26 AM

Wilma eye is -- now -- 18.1 North 84.35 West
San Pedro: -- 17.9167 -- Long -87.9500

so just now passed to above us.

I seriously doubt Wilma all of a sudden go straight west to strike Belize, and by morning it will probably be well north of us. and no cold front it appears, to push it back down.

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Eli

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:36 AM

So...it `s already passed??
Eli
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:50 AM

she's past us by in a latitudinal sense! (gone a bit north)
Posted By: Eli

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 06:17 AM

That looks great, doesnt it? Thanks a lot Marty!!
We keep in touch.
Eli
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 07:16 AM

midnite....

[Linked Image]
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 10:52 AM

WTNT34 KNHC 200835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...FOR NOW....

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 12:46 PM

00
AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT
20/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 900 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS
THREAT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 120
NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N81W-
20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO 19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST
OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS FOLLOWING A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
25W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION WHERE STRONG E LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES WITH WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-57W WITH A SMALL AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N55W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY UPPER OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N24W 6N41W 9N52W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-41W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WHICH IS DECEIVINGLY
COVERING UP THE APPROACHING HURRICANE THAT LOOMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO HURRICANE WILMA IN
THE SE AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE W GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUES
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT OVER
THE SE GULF WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM WILMA ARE SPREADING S OF
27N E OF 90W. AS SUCH...THE WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER MOST RAINBANDS OF
WILMA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SPREADING NE AS
WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE GULF. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A NICE
DRY WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON WILMA. THE BROAD OUTFLOW
CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NE INTO THE W
ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES EXCEPT OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ARE GETTING A BRIEF BREAK AS WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32N72W TO 27N77W WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 50 KT EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA
NEAR 25N84W E TO 27N71W THEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 90 KT NE
TO BEYOND 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE JET FROM
A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N62W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350/400 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 59W FROM 10N-20N AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SUBTROPICS NEAR 28N40W AND IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WITH A 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE WEAK LOW
THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W AND STILL LACKS ANY SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 21N16W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES NW TO 23N48W. WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N16W 11N38W TO 23N54W.

$$
WALLACE
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 01:09 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 201151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN
FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 01:39 PM

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT
20/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 900 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS
THREAT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 120
NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N81W-
20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO 19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST
OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS FOLLOWING A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
25W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION WHERE STRONG E LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES WITH WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-57W WITH A SMALL AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N55W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY UPPER OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N24W 6N41W 9N52W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-41W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WHICH IS DECEIVINGLY
COVERING UP THE APPROACHING HURRICANE THAT LOOMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO HURRICANE WILMA IN
THE SE AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE W GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUES
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT OVER
THE SE GULF WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM WILMA ARE SPREADING S OF
27N E OF 90W. AS SUCH...THE WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER MOST RAINBANDS OF
WILMA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SPREADING NE AS
WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE GULF. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A NICE
DRY WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON WILMA. THE BROAD OUTFLOW
CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NE INTO THE W
ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES EXCEPT OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ARE GETTING A BRIEF BREAK AS WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32N72W TO 27N77W WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 50 KT EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA
NEAR 25N84W E TO 27N71W THEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 90 KT NE
TO BEYOND 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE JET FROM
A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N62W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350/400 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 59W FROM 10N-20N AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SUBTROPICS NEAR 28N40W AND IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WITH A 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE WEAK LOW
THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W AND STILL LACKS ANY SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 21N16W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES NW TO 23N48W. WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N16W 11N38W TO 23N54W.

$$
WALLACE
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:04 PM

Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. Wilma is currently undergoing a collapse of her inner eyewall, which will cause a short weakening trend that may last the remainder of the day. The inner eyewall of eight miles diameter is collapsing, and a new eyewall of 40 miles diameter is forming. This will reduce Wilma's peak winds to perhaps 135 mph today, at the low end of Category 4 strength. We'll have to wait until the next hurricane hunter mission arrives around 4 pm today to verify if this is the case.

As Wilma's eye reforms at a much larger size, the hurricane should begin to intensify again, and a return to Category 5 strength by Friday afternoon is a possibility. The larger eye will result in a much larger area being exposed to the extreme winds of the eyewall. If Wilma makes landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula, a stretch of coast perhaps 50 miles long will experience extreme damage.
Where will Wilma go?
There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much the past few days, which is wise when the computer models are having difficulty. A trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. should turn Wilma northwest today towards Cozumel Island, and then due north by tomorrow. However, once Wilma reaches the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel, the storm is expected to slow to a crawl or stall for 12 - 48 hours. This will result in the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula receiving a horrific pounding, particularly if the eye comes ashore. This weekend is a very bad weekend to be a tourist in Cancun.
Jeff Masters
Posted By: BZEdog

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:44 PM

nail biter. close enuff
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 05:47 PM

from up north...

one of our staff just called from watching stuff down at Ruby's...

locks of docks getting pummeled...

waves are REALLY impressive at the reef... wow.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 06:12 PM

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 07:11 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 201749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/20/05 08:04 PM

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

that is the northeast outflow, but Wilma has a South West Out flow as
well, which will hit us, if at all, only after it has passed the gap.

just heard they are evacuating villages across the border from Belize in Guatemala.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:07 AM

Fantastic Eye shot graphic along with this article:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html


The RECON found that WILMA eye is now 40NM across, and MAX winds are steady
at 145KTS in the north quadrant, or about 150MPH at the surface. Just below
CAT 5 intensity. The pressure is still up at 918mb. (See below)

The 18Z models have again shown a wider spread in their track evolution,
just as they did yesterday at the 18Z run -- but they all have tended to
migrate their respective tracks over the Yucatan and once there, are
showing a very slow movement. This will simultaneously devastate the
Cancun/Cozumel area with prolonged severe winds, torrential rains, and a
storm surge that could effectively do away with most everything on Cozumel
Island but reduce the threat of a Major hurricane striking Florida once it
does arrive oin the SW coast.

Overall, the odds are increasing that Wilma will arrive in Florida even
later than originally thought, and it would then also be weaker since as
time goes by, the massive TROF that is going to pick Wilma and drive her
across Florida, will also be producing strong wind shears across the storm,
and that will greatly inhibit any re-intensification of Wilma once it does
re-emerge over the warm waters near the Yucatan Channel.
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:08 AM

Wilma's impact on Mexico
Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:16 AM

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:23 AM

WILMA WEAKENS


We start with the latest advisory on Hurricane Wilma. Here is Forecaster Dennis Gonguez.

Dennis Gonguez:



At twelve o'clock Wilma was near latitude 18.6 north at longitude 85.5 west. That position is about a hundred and eighty-five miles east of Corozal Town and a hundred and ninety-two miles east, northeast of Belize City. Wilma is now moving towards the northwest at about five miles per hour and is expected to continue on the west to northwest. The maximum sustained winds are a hundred and forty-five miles per hour.

Marian Ali:



Can we begin to assume that Wilma will just brush past us without affecting us directly?

Dennis Gonguez:



We will see some effects from Wilma and effects from the tropical storm force winds as we are experiencing over some parts of the country right now and that will continue for the most part through tonight.

Marian Ali:



What can we expect the weather to be like in northern Belize this afternoon and tonight?

Dennis Gonguez:



It will continue being cloudy with showers off and on and to an extent it may even become very very intense and windy. We expect winds to be in the range of about forty to forty five miles an hour. In fact we have our eleven o'clock observation from San Pedro and we had winds at twenty-five miles per hour gust into thirty-five miles per hour. Caye Caulker had also reported twenty-five miles per hour winds gusting to over forty-two miles per hour. Here at the international airport the wind was blowing at 15 knots and gusting to 32 knots at times. It will remain a bit windy and as Wilma makes its closest approach to our country.



San Pedro Town has suspended classes. The situation is reported less severe in Corozal. The Corozal District Emergency Management Organization issued a news release stating that it is maintaining a state of alert. Its Operation Center will continue to be manned by police and BDF personnel. Schools remain open in Corozal Town until further notice. School principals have been told they may use their discretion in specific circumstances that may be affecting their schools.


+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+

WILMA FORCES AUDUBON SOCIETY TO CLOSE TWO MARINE MONUMENTS


The Belize Audubon Society has had to close the two marine monuments that it manages as a result of Wilma. We spoke this morning with Advocacy Manager at the Audubon Society, Tanya Williams Thompson.

Tanya Williams Thompson:



Half Moon and Blue Hole National Monuments have been closed. They are the two marine protected areas that the Belize Audubon Society manages. Sea conditions have been pretty rough and dangerous.

Marian Ali:



Have any damages been reported on these two monuments thus far?

Tanya Williams Thompson:



No. Not that we are aware of. Depending on the wave action we might see some erosion but later on in the week we shall get a report from these national monuments.

Marian Ali:



Do you anticipate that the Audubon might have to close any more of its national monuments?

Tanya Williams Thompson:



That would depend on the track of the hurricane system. As the weather service has been announcing it shouldn't affect southern or western Belize so in terms of that I don't think we expect to close anymore of the parks.



To our north, the entire area of Cancun in Mexico has been evacuated and the Cancun International Airport has been closed.
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:57 AM

WTNT34 KNHC 210232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR WILMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
COZUMEL AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAN ISLAND AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WILMA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 77 MPH... 124 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH... 140 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY
THE KEYS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 05:22 AM

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 05:28 AM

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Last Updated: 9:05 PM GMT on October 20, 2005

Hurricane Wilma made its expected turn northwest, and is now headed towards Cozumel Island as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. A new hurricane hunter plane arrived at the center at 2:45 pm EDT, and found a central pressure of 918 mb and surface winds of 150 mph. The 4:16 pm report had the same pressure and winds, so Wilma has leveled out in intensity. Wilma has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and now has a large 40 mile diameter eye. Some intensification is likely the next 18 hours before Wilma comes ashore in the Yucatan. It is possible Wilma can eclipse its record 882 mb pressure, but she probably will not have enough time to do that.

[Linked Image]

FIgure 1. Topography of the ocean bottom. Where a long expanse of shallow waters over the Continental Shelf (light blue) exist next to the coast, one can expect increased storm surge potential. The waters off the coast of Cancun/Cozumel are quite deep, limiting the maximum potential storm surge to about 11 feet. The Continental Shelf is quite extensive off the west coast of Florida, making that region prone to large storm surges. Image credit: NOAA.

Wilma's impact on Mexico
Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.

Where will Wilma go?
A trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. has turned Wilma more to the northwest today, on a track towards Cozumel Island. The lastest 12Z (8am EDT) runs of all four major models used to track hurricanes--the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET--agree on a landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday, followed by a one to two day period of slow and erratic movement over land. By Sunday, strong westerly winds fill in behind the trough and pick up Wilma, and move her across South Florida by Monday. Once Wilma does make the crossing from Mexico to Florida, I expect little change in strength. While the waters are still warm enough to support intensification, this will be offset by increasing wind shear associated with the westerly winds driving Wilma.

How believable is all this? As we've seen many times this hurricane season, when the models come into alignment, it's usually a good sign that the forecast is correct. This is particularly true when data from the NOAA jet is used to initialize the models, which is the case here. However, in a case where the steering currents are weak, there is much less confidence. In addition, just a small 100 mile error in forecast means the difference between Wilma staying over warm waters and maintaining its intensity, or moving ashore and weakening significantly. The Canadian model (which has not performed well with Wilma) is forecasting that she will stay primarily over water the next three days.

Given all these factors, I'd give Wilma a 10% chance of arriving on the Florida west coast as a Category 3 or higher storm, 20% as a Category 2, 40% as a Category 1, and 30% as a tropical storm. On Florida's east coast, knock these value down by half a Category (10 - 15 mph).
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 05:43 AM

eye is 35 miles wide right now...
Posted By: casa de amor

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 01:44 PM

The weather man said that Cozumel is getting twenty six foot waves breaking on the beach, and that there coastline would be forever changed
Posted By: Grace

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 03:28 PM

Marty,
Great images! I saved the globe and the Gulf of Mexico....thanks....and good luck to Mexico...we're next
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 04:36 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 211451
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL...
...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND
CANCUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 06:11 PM

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/hurricane-feature.asp
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 07:22 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 211800
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...EYEWALL OF WILMA LASHING COZUMEL AND NEARING THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CANCUN RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH... 225 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 56 MPH... 91 KM/HR... AND 27 FOOT SEAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 09:18 PM

Corozal Bay conditions currently: Flat -- with a very light chop -- and normal water levels.
==
Belize City: Belize harbour is Gusty...lots of white crests.

Not a mosquito in sight anywhere i've been in the
last 48 hours...or sandfly...but loads of
dragonflies (needlecase) everywhere.

Low humidity, low temperature. Feels like
Guatemala City type climate. Wish it could be
this cool & dry year round.
==
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 09:23 PM

[Linked Image]
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 10:16 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 212044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...EYE OF WILMA CROSSING OVER COZUMEL...
...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
END OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 11:30 PM

Jesse says there are some great reports on CNN...LIVE! from Akumal and Cancun via batteries and a DSL line on a laptop


here's Cozumel in the eye...
[Linked Image]
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 11:36 PM

Hurricane drenches Mexico's Yucatán
By Maria Newman and Timothy Williams The New York Times

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2005

Hurricane Wilma's ferocious winds whipped the Mexican island of Cozumel on
Friday, toppling trees and forcing tourists to flee the popular hotels and
resorts and seek refuge in hot, crowded emergency shelters.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Florida said the eyewall of
the hurricane - where the fastest-moving winds surround the eye - hit the
Yucatán Peninsula, bringing pounding winds and heavy rains that caused
widespread flooding in Mexico and the Caribbean region.

With winds of 145 miles, or about 230 kilometers, an hour, the storm could
linger over the Yucatán for a couple of days, said Max Mayfield, director
of the National Hurricane Center.

And the longer it spends in that area, he said, the greater the potential
for the storm to weaken.

But he cautioned residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast that it was too early
to tell exactly how the storm would affect the United States, and to
continue to monitor the forecast for what is still a powerful storm.

"This is a good thing," Mayfield said at a news conference in Coral Gables,
Florida. "This gives us more time. It gives people time to say we can see
it coming. Don't let our guard down yet."

There already was flooding in parts of Cancún, which is in the projected
path of the hurricane. Nearly 50 hotels there have been evacuated, but more
than 30,000 tourists remain in and around the resort area, according to The
Associated Press.

After it hit the Yucatán, Wilma was expected to veer north and east toward
Cuba, before moving toward southwest Florida, where it is expected to
arrive Sunday or Monday.

Mayfield said that if it only clipped the Mexican peninsula, it would
continue on into the Gulf Coast with more force. If it hit land more
directly and lingered, its force could lessen and it would travel at a
slower velocity.

The Category 4 storm, which has killed at least 13 people in Haiti and
Jamaica, has led to the evacuations of hundreds of thousands in Mexico and
Cuba, The Associated Press said.

In Florida, officials have not called for mandatory evacuations, but
officials in Key West have asked tourists to leave and have transported
hospital patients and nursing home residents out of the area.

Governor Jeb Bush of Florida has declared a state of emergency, as
residents performed the now-familiar exercise of boarding up houses and
businesses. Wilma would be the eighth hurricane to pass over the state in a
little over a year.

The National Hurricane Center has continued to call the storm, whose
sustained winds have been reduced from a high of 175 miles per hour earlier
this week, "extremely dangerous."

"All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula should closely
monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma," the
Miami-based hurricane center has warned on its Web site since Wednesday.

The hurricane center said that Wilma would cause a storm surge of 7 to 11
feet, or from 2 to more than 3 meters, above normal tide levels. And, it
added, the storm's "large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north of the center along the northeastern Yucatán
Peninsula."

Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches, or about 25 to 50
centimeters, of rain on the Yucatán and Cuba - and as much as 40 inches in
Cuba's mountainous regions.

Two to four inches of rain are expected in Florida through Sunday. Swells
generated from the hurricane will likely travel to the Gulf Coast region
late Friday, which could cause flooding, the hurricane center said.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/21/05 11:39 PM

very up to minute photos from cancun at
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 01:15 AM

WTNT34 KNHC 212343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...CORRECT LONGITUDE IN REPEAT SECTION...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WILMA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHERN
END OF COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN END
OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

WILMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. AN AUTOMATED
STATION ON COZUMEL REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 927.4 MB...27.39 INCHES
AROUND 4 PM CDT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 03:02 AM

[Linked Image]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 03:11 AM

cancun=6 hours + in NE quad. 140-160mph and still moving super duper slow. gonna be there awhile still
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 03:51 AM

WTNT34 KNHC 220234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA JUST ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
20 MILES... 35 KM...NORTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
WILMA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CENTER OF WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 12:27 PM

for todays weather, see http://SanPedroDaily.com/
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 04:55 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 221541
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR MEXICO...

...CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...
185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/22/05 07:12 PM

WTNT34 KNHC 221755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA STILL INLAND AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER YUCATAN...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER YUCATAN FOR 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST WEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS ERRATICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND
THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND... BUT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY ONCE WILMA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
WILMA... RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Posted By: Marty

Re: Where will Wilma go? - 10/24/05 07:23 AM

here's a good way to end this thread....
//AmbergrisCaye.com/castles/
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