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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Posted By: SP Daily

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK - 11/16/05 07:35 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK - 11/17/05 11:07 PM

Disturbance in the northwest Caribbean

The National Hurricane Centered issued a Tropical Disturbance Statement for the disturbance in the northwest Caribbean Sea at 4:25 PM EST.
To summarize the statement, a hurricane hunter investigated the area and found that the disturbance off the Nicaragua coast had not developed into a tropical depression. In fact, areal coverage and intensity of shower activity has decreased significantly over the past few hours as evidence in satellite imagery.

The hurricane hunter also investigated the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-seven and found no closed circulation. Suprisingly, tropical storm force winds along with shower activity was observed in the area.
When looking at the satellite imagery, it is evident that there is significant convection noted along with the remnants of Twenty-seven. It seems as though this system now has the best chance of further development over the next few days as it resides in an environment of weak shear. The farther north it travels, however, the more shear it will encounter.
Posted By: SimonB

Re: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK - 11/18/05 01:13 PM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181030
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE... BUT IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. A NEARBY BUT SEPARATE WEATHER
SYSTEM... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS... IS
PRODUCING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INLAND AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED UNLESS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... EITHER
THROUGH REGENERATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... OR
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER HONDURAS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS AREA LATER TODAY... IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND COULD SPREAD INTO BELIZE... NORTHERN
GUATEMALA... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING SOME WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$
Posted By: SimonB

Re: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK - 11/18/05 04:17 PM

Raining cats and dogs right now! Duck!


000
WONT41 KNHC 181400
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$
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