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Posted By: Amanda Syme Be on alert - 10/06/07 04:28 PM
From Rob Lightbown's Crown Weather Services today...

The second feature of interest is a weak area of low pressure, accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity, over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Currently, environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development as wind shear is running between 10 and 20 knots across this area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development over the next few days and slow development into a tropical depression is possible over the next few days. Overall motion of this system is expected to be a drift towards the west or southwest over the next couple of days. This morning's computer forecast models all agree that this system will stick around in the Bay of Campeche or northwest Caribbean for quite a while. In fact, both the GFS model and European model forecasts that this system will sit in this area through pretty much all of next week. By next weekend, it is possible that a trough of low pressure could dig down and lift this system up and out to the northeast and east-northeast towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. So, it is quite conceivable that we could have a slowly intensifying tropical storm down in the Bay of Campeche next week that may try to lift northeastward next weekend.
Overall, it is a very complex mess down in the Caribbean with a elongated trough of low pressure stretching across the entire Caribbean and this makes trying to fix in on any one area very difficult. Needless to say, I will be monitoring both areas of disturbed weather as time permits this weekend and I will keep you all updated.

From Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground....

Western Caribbean disturbed weather
Limited and disorganized thunderstorm activity is present over the Western Caribbean. Most of the computer models continue to show the possibility of a tropical depression forming here in the next 2-7 days, and moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. Given the current lack of activity there now, nothing is likely to develop today or Sunday. The disturbance in the southern Bahamas we were tracking yesterday (92L) has dissipated. Upper level winds over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be favorable for tropical storm development over the coming week, if a disturbance with some spin at low levels can get going.


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