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Tropical Disturbance 94L

Posted By: Tradewind

Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/17/08 07:56 PM


A weak disturbance has entered the Caribbean on a low track. Just mentioning it for a heads-up. I trust this board will advise if it develops further.

- Tradewind
Posted By: Amanda Syme

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/17/08 08:31 PM

An early heads-up is always helpful. Thanks.
Posted By: Tradewind

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/18/08 03:22 PM



Starting to pull more WNW. Also starting to develop. Models say should pass north of Belize.

You'll be hearing more of this over the next day or two.
Posted By: SimonB

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/18/08 03:27 PM

Should be here by Sunday night/Monday morning. Looks like a wet weekend and start of the week. Blah!
Posted By: Tradewind

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/19/08 03:56 AM



Upper level winds are wrecking it. - Never mind.
Posted By: Amanda Syme

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/19/08 05:42 AM

Dr. Jeff Masters of wunderground.com stated in his blog today:

The upper-level low is forecast to slide westward and weaken over the next two days, bringing low wind shear of 5-10 knots over the disturbance Saturday and Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression as early as Saturday afternoon. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to fly into 94L at 2 pm EDT Saturday. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/19/08 01:09 PM

yeah looks like its tracking a bit north, plus max winds are 70 mph a couple days out

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/t...ntic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
Posted By: Amanda Syme

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/19/08 03:51 PM

This is from one of my favorite weather forecasters: Ray Lightbown of Crowne Weather Services. http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Pass the word along to folks on the Texas coast.

I wanted to point out a couple of things to consider regarding the potential of fairly rapid intensification starting around Monday: The model runs of the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and Canadian are somewhat concerning as they are not only portraying something rather extreme, but that it will get there pretty rapidly. The reason why I am concerned is that it is the weekend and there are less individuals paying attention to the news and weather and any developments of this system. With this system just a tropical wave, most people are not paying attention to its progress and probably won't until bedtime Sunday night or during the Monday morning commute. So, please spread the word that there is a tropical system in the central Caribbean that could undergo rapid intensification starting Monday and may come ashore along the Texas coast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
I don't mean to be fear monger, but I do want to point out the potential long before any advisories, watches or warnings go up. Please continue to monitor the latest information regarding this system. I will be closely monitoring this system and will keep you all updated. Again, please spread the word to your coastal Texas friends and family that there is a tropical system in the central Caribbean that could undergo rapid intensification starting Monday and may come ashore along the Texas coast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Finally, I would like to once again thank Chuck Nusbaum and the crew at Old City Web Services for hosting Crown Weather Services' website this hurricane season. Chuck and his crew at Old City Web Services are gracious and generous enough to host our website and keep us going. So, please thank them when you get a chance for hosting our site and keeping us going. Without them, we wouldn't be here!! So, thank you Chuck and everyone else at Old City Web Services!!
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 8 am EDT Sunday morning.



Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/19/08 09:10 PM

The upper-level low bringing high wind shear to 94L has weakened considerably in the past six hours, and is forecast to slide westward and continue to weaken over the next two days. Very low wind shear of 5 knots or less should be over the disturbance Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

jmasters
Posted By: SimonB

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/20/08 04:47 PM

Now Tropical Storm Dolly and already North of us.

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...365
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY.
Posted By: SP Daily

Re: Tropical Disturbance 94L - 07/20/08 08:51 PM

TNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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