just off shore.

possible something further south and east - keep a wary eye folks.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1132&tstamp=200810

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.

Thunderstorm activity associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the Northwestern Caribbean sea� about 100mls east of the coast of Belize has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Additional development of this system is still possible before it moves inland over Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula in day or two. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Just went through the data on Cal's weather station. The rain started on September 15th, since that date there have been 4 days without rain. Total rainfall since September 15th - 19.33 inches! Best data I can find shows we usually average 7-10 inches for the same period. Hopefully I91 is the last of the rain for a while!

Cal and I were away when Arthur hit the island. The power had gone out for so long even our back-up ran out of juice so the weather station couldn't report to the website. But the weather station itself runs for days so when we returned home we checked the stats. There were 26 inches of rain in about 3 days and a gust of 100mph winds.

Love this weather station.

man, 26 inches in THREE DAYS. WOW!!!! i love that weather station too!! i think we all do!!!!!

Jeff Masters this AM:
The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear.

Kate and I stayed. we stood some of the downed trees back up and it worked.
Author was very interesting erosion wise.
The beach is still recovering.
all those sea walls are going to be an erosion issue in the future.

I don't remember exactly when it was in '03 or '04 but I lived above Manelly's Ice Cream when we had a storm that hung right over down town all night. In an eight hour period we had 12" of rain.

I remember that rain - Dr. Wil Lala always kept track of the rainfall back in those days - so the hotline to Wil was going crazy!

Me too - a large number of boats sank that night --- !

am moving my boat back to shallow water as soon as there is a break in the drizzle -

and did I say that yesterday there were birds fishing in the "road" behind our house?

JeffMasters, 1:47 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure (91L) continues to fester off the coast of Belize in the Western Caribbean Sea. This morning's QuickSCAT pass revealed no surface circulation, although some rotation at higher levels of the atmosphere is apparent on satellite loops. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance increased some in the past few hours, spreading over the Cayman Islands. However pressures are not falling at present over the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is a high 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFDL model develops 91L into a tropical storm that hits Florida near Sarasota Friday morning with 50 mph winds. The 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model is slower, predicting a landfall near Tampa on Saturday morning. However, this landfall may occur as a weaker subtropical storm or extratropical storm, as predicted by the latest phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State. The other reliable models do not develop 91L. NHC is giving 91L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

methinks we be fine for the moment - just very soggy and suffering from cabin fever

Add 3" for the total for today!

The forecast for 91L MORE RAIN!!!!

Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next three days. Steering currents are weak, and little movement is likely through Wednesday. Heavy rains will affect northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Thursday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida between Tampa and the Big Bend region on Friday night. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and 91L is expected to make a transition to a very wet extratropical storm by Friday. The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.

Why did all the planes just fly off the island at 6:15PM?

Strange, another one just left.

A new pilot is being tested out and they're doing touch and go landings.

According to the MET this morning, the skies will clear briefly today and then a Tropical Wave is headed our way with MORE RAIN.
DANG, PHOOH and SHUCKS.

We have sunshine this morning in Placencia, send your laundry down here to dry.

It just broke here as well. not bright sun but stopped raining and looks promising. I know what you mean about laundry. Everything is wet and mildewed.
Its amazing how quickly the standing water turns into life. The frogs and fish seem to appear as if by magic and I have a vibrant lagoon in my back yard with heron stalking prey.

NEMO is describing this as "a disaster that is still actively unfolding". Flood waters have not yet reached the Belize district, but will do so shortly.
If this were not enough, it's going to rain again with an approaching tropical wave due to arrive Thursday or Friday.

Prime Minister stated that the only good news is the way the people and agencies have responded. He called the response and efficienty level "nothing short of phenominal."

Several areas of Cayo have been officially declared disater areas.

Damage to the agricultural sector is significant and this means food shortages await us --- onions, potatos, rice, cane, papayas and corn in particular. Loss of corn means higher costs for feed for livestock. Also there has been some loss of livestock itself in this flood. Spanish Lookout is still cut off and this means not much produce can get to market.