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Today's Belize Tropical Weather Outlook

Posted By: Marty

Today's Belize Tropical Weather Outlook - 11/08/10 03:37 PM

Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 19, 2021

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Belize Satellite image on Weather.com




Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

June 19, 2021

At 3:00 am the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 29.6N, longitude 90.7W or about 45 miles southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana. Claudette was moving to the north-northeast at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 19, 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located just offshore of the coast of southern Louisiana.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Tropical Storm Claudette is centered near 29.6N 90.7W at 19/0900 UTC or 40 nm SW of New Orleans Louisiana moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 300 nm of the E semicircle. Rough seas are expected to continue with 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the SE quadrant with seas reaching 19 ft. Tropical Storm Claudette is expected to turn toward the northeast later today, with a turn toward the east- northeast expected by tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The system is forecast to re-develop over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...Tropical Waves...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W to 40W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm of the wave.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica from 18N to 20N between 75W to 80W.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the wave axis in the Gulf of Honduras.

...The Caribbean Sea...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends in the extreme SW waters between eastern Panama and northern Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 09N between 11N between 77W to 81W. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to approach the Lesser Antilles as a tropical wave approaches the region.

Fresh to strong tradewinds are occurring in the central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. A tropical wave currently located along 78W will continue to move W across the Caribbean today and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles by this evening and increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms through Sun.


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development


Claudette very close to the coastline
Accuweather

June 19, 2021

Tropical Storm Claudette is located at 30.0 N, -90.3 W with sustained winds of 46 mph and maximum winds of 58 mph, moving NNE 13 mph, pressure 29.71.

Latest satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Claudette remains rather disorganized as much of the convection is still displaced well to the east and northeast of the low-level center.

Tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Claudette is enveloping the central Gulf Coast now and bring the threat for heavy, flooding rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast into early next week, regardless of how strong the system becomes. There will also be a threat for a 1- to 3-foot storm surge along coastal areas of southern Louisiana. As the system continues inland on Saturday and Sunday, it will bring very heavy rainfall and localized flooding to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we do not anticipate tropical development to occur for at least the next 48 hours.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 Likely To Become Tropical Storm Claudette Before Landfall Late Tonight; Heavy Rainfall Along The Northern Gulf Coast Remains The Main Threat
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 18, 2021

Invest 92-L Located In The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico: A broad low pressure system (Invest 92-L) continues to remain nearly stationary in the area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery indicated that the shower and thunderstorm activity continues to be disorganized with no signs of a more concentrated area of convection. In addition, satellite imagery does indicate that the entire low pressure circulation may be beginning to tighten some and this could mean development may be close at hand.

Analysis of environmental conditions reveal that the wind shear values are now decreasing around Invest 92-L with the highest wind shear values found removed from the low pressure center. Any low-level center is still broad and elongated from the Bay of Campeche into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Given the decreasing wind shear and the observations of a tightening low pressure circulation, I think it’s very likely that we will see Invest 92-L develop into a tropical depression sometime between later today and early Friday. Beyond this, I think that it is very likely that this system will strengthen from a tropical depression into a tropical storm sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as it heads into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The model guidance all agree on the northward track through Saturday with the European ensemble guidance showing a general track towards the southwestern coast of Louisiana and the GFS ensemble model guidance indicating a track towards the south-central coast of Louisiana.

Interestingly, the consensus of the track model guidance (TVCN model) is showing a further west track bringing the center of Invest 92-L inland along the Texas coast between Houston and Matagorda Island on Saturday night. I think the TVCN model is likely too far west and am thinking much more that a track towards the southern Louisiana coast is much more probable.

Most of the intensity models keep Invest 92-L a depression with only the LGEM and SHIPS-Decay model forecasting a low end tropical storm.

My Track and Intensity Forecast Of Invest 92-L – As of right now, I think that this system will become a tropical depression sometime between later this afternoon and Friday morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. From there, I think that Invest 92-L will probably strengthen from a tropical depression into Tropical Storm Claudette between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as it continues to head northward into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

As for landfall, I think that the center of Invest 92-L will move onshore very near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana around midday Saturday as a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm.

Forecast Impacts: I urge you to not focus on where the center will track as much of the squalls and heavy rainfall will occur well east of where the storm’s center crosses the coast. In fact, most of the heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding is expected to occur between 50 and 250 miles to the east and northeast of the center.

I think that squally weather with heavy rainfall and flash flooding is very likely across southeastern Louisiana, southern and eastern Mississippi, a large part of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and central and northern Georgia. In this area, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible.

This squally weather with heavy rainfall is expected to begin during the day on Friday along the northern Gulf Coast and spread inland into inland parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia during Saturday and continue through Sunday.

Even though Invest 92-L will not become a very strong tropical storm, it will still bring significant impacts in terms of rainfall to the east of where it makes landfall. This means that those you across southeastern Louisiana, southern and eastern Mississippi, the western Florida Panhandle and western and northern Georgia should be prepared for flooding (including flash flooding, river flooding, bayou flooding and street/highway flooding) beginning on Friday and continuing through this weekend.

Invest 92-L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday.



Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 brings heavy rains to central U.S. Gulf Coast
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

June 18, 2021


PTC 3 in the Gulf of Mexico as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:30 a.m. EDT June 18, 2021. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State University)

The first tropical storm warnings of 2021 for the U.S. coast were up Friday afternoon for the expected arrival of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC 3). The system was growing more organized over the Gulf of Mexico and spreading heavy rains along the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. PTC 3 is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Claudette before making landfall Friday night or Saturday morning in southeast Louisiana, but regardless of its exact track and landfall intensity, PTC 3 will bring heavy rains and dangerous flash flooding to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Sunday.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew their first mission of the hurricane season on Thursday afternoon into PTC 3: They found the system did not have a well-defined surface circulation, and thus could not be classified as a tropical depression. Nonetheless, since the system was expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall, the National Hurricane Center opted to classify it as a “potential tropical cyclone” so that advisories could be initiated on it.

PTC 3 retained that classification at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, when it had top winds of 35 mph – just below tropical storm strength. A follow-up hurricane hunter mission on Friday morning was also unable to find a well-defined surface circulation center.

At 11 a.m. EDT Friday, PTC 3 was headed north-northeast at 14 mph over the central Gulf of Mexico. The system had marginal conditions for development, with warm waters of 28.5 degrees Celsius (83°F), but high wind shear of 20-25 knots was driving dry air to the west of the system into its core, disrupting it. Satellite loops showed PTC 3 with a broad circulation, with a building area of heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the western Gulf was acting to increase PTC 3’s heavy thunderstorms, thereby also giving the developing storm a less-than-tropical appearance.

At 11 a.m. EDT Friday, PTC 3 was headed north-northeast at 14 mph over the central Gulf of Mexico. The system had marginal conditions for development, with warm waters of 28.5 degrees Celsius (83°F), but high wind shear of 20-25 knots was driving dry air to the west of the system into its core, disrupting it. Satellite loops showed PTC 3 with a broad circulation, with a building area of heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the western Gulf was acting to increase PTC 3’s heavy thunderstorms, thereby also giving the developing storm a less-than-tropical appearance.

Interestingly, the European model predicts that after PTC 3 makes landfall in Louisiana, it will weaken, and then re-intensify on Monday as it turns east-northeast and traverses North and South Carolina before it emerges out over the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS model is not making this same prediction, but according to retired NHC branch chief Hugh Cobb, a number of systems have re-intensified in this manner, including Cleo (1964), Agnes (1972), and Danny (1997). Technically, this occurs because of vorticity column stretching as the system moves over the lower terrain east of the southern Appalachians.


Storm in the Gulf of Mexico expected to bring heavy rains and flooding hazards to the Southern U.S.



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