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#11014 - 08/20/01 10:42 PM lankford, 3:45pm
Marty Offline
The latest advisory and the map we've been watching agree that Chantal
is becoming better organized.


Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.html


Map: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html


And set it up as you like.


The thing to point out at this time is that the leading edge of
Chantal, tightening up, has thin margins between fair weather and
pretty heavy storming. If and as this approaches the Cayes, dark
clouds on the horizon will be no joke. The heaviest weather in the
whole big system is now on the leading edge.


Organization has not brought significant strengthening with it, as has
been usual with Chantal. Top winds still 65. Central pressure 1004
millibars, the not-too-impressive range in which she's been varying.


The west-northwestward speed is given as 14 miles an hour. The
projected track is "The Belize-Mexico border". Okay, so they put
Mexico first in their communique'. That was them, this is me. No
offense, but home is home even when I'm not in it.


Also significant: projected rainfall totals up from three to five
inches TO five to eight inches. Now we are talking really serious
rain, anywhere it needs to run off. That much can hurt many people and
pieces of property.


The tidal surge data has not changed, two to three feet.


Tropical storm winds extend out 200 miles on the north and east.
Belize won't be much bothered by what happens to the north and east of
the center.


The great cloudmass of Chantal has been sprawling, splitting, and
puddling all over the place. The approach to the Cayes, which the
center may reach at North Ambergris in about two hours, has looked
more like burgeoning than moving.


But now that there is some organization and it could be important,
I'll concede the center of low pressure may well have been chugging
right along under cover of all that cloudmess, or those cloudmesses.
The center is probably on track and pace for now, the cloudmess rather
than the center being affected by the wall building in to the
northwest. That could change and she could stall, but the appearance
of a stall offshore rather than over the Yucatan was, I admit, a bit
surprising. It may well have been illusory, clouds rather than center.


The center will tend to build weather as it moves, so its advance in a
more organized storm threatens, as mumbled at the beginning, one
minute in sunlight or light cloud and the next in a drownpour with
quite frisky local winds.


Don't get caught far from your hunkerdown.


John Lankford

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#11015 - 08/20/01 11:20 PM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
kimberly matson Offline
Has most of San Pedro evacutated? Is the RC school being used for sanctuary? My hopes and prayers to all...

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#11016 - 08/20/01 11:45 PM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
Elbert Greer Offline
John,
its missed and is not even a hurricane.
lets not get excited.

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#11017 - 08/20/01 11:57 PM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
rickcheri Offline
Hey Elbert!! Good to read u on the board again!! Missed ya! Thanks for the update, it was most reassuring to me! Hopefully all you'll get is a bunch of "gas"! LOL Cheri

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#11018 - 08/21/01 12:20 AM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
Marty Offline
5:15 update

Dat bitch 'ginnin ter look lak a STAWM, mon!


Ignore all else and focus in on that big white circular cloud that
burgeoned up. It's not circular now. Now the center of circulation is
actually on its southwest side.


When they said comma shape, that meant losing amateur standing and
going pro.


The rest of it is being caused by that strengthening vortex yanking on
surrounding air.


John

++++++++++++
note from Marty:
keep an eye on the southern edge of this storm the most intense activity is in that area now, which is actually to the south of the island. all current maps show it passing to the north, which the bulk of the cloud dover appears to be doing.

but there is some vortex action going on along the southern edge that bears watching.

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#11019 - 08/21/01 12:22 AM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
Marty Offline
a large percent of the island has evacuated kimberly, i'm not sure yet what they are using for sanctuary, tho i would imageine this time it won't be as much of a problem as during keith cause there was more preparation time this year and a LOT more people got off...

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#11020 - 08/21/01 12:24 AM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
Christopher Offline
Lest we not forget how Keith turned and did us in last time....no relaxing until it is GONE away...through the Yucatan and into the gulf...
the latest shot shows the first part coming ashore just about Majahual or so on the southern Yucatan...
Don't trust this bitch though...
CC
_________________________
chris considine

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#11021 - 08/21/01 12:55 AM Re: lankford, 3:45pm
Marty Offline
Amen Christopher.

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