AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Rina

The San Pedro NEMO Emergency Committee is in full swing and held a second meeting this morning at 8am to make sure everyone was on the same page. The San Pedro Sun caught up with Ms. Jeromey Timrose, District Emergency Co-ordinator for NEMO San Pedro/ Caye Caulker who updated us on the progress of the evacuation process.

According to Ms. Timrose, evacuation started as early as 6am this morning and up to 10:40 this morning, over 640 individuals had been evacuated from both islands. She commends all the cooperation from individuals evacuating as well as businesses providing the evacuation service. The general public is advised that while the weather is sunny and it may be easy to become unconcerned, to stay vigilant in monitoring the weather. "We have to continue to monitor the weather and take all the necessary precautions to save lives," she stated.

Click here to read the rest of the article and see more photos in the San Pedro Sun!

Close up view on the track of Hurricane Rina, 6:45pm

Click photo for larger version

Four aircraft recon missions per day, alternating between Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter planes, are planned for the next few days, as long as the system is over water

confused about that last graphic Marty, as it seems that it puts the current position of the storm more north than NOAA/HH is putting it? Or it that the forecasted track?

thats the edge of the forecasted "cone", the part that comes closest to the island. the yellow line at the bottom is the edge of the cone zone, not the track. the actual track dead center is not on this map

Here's the whole image. i just took the part of it closest to the island, and blew it up big.

NEMO PRESS RELEASE #5


At 6:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.5 N, Latitude and 84.5 W, Longitude or about 244 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extends out to 140 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 30 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become a major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.

With effect from 5:00 p.m today, NEMO suspended evacuation operations from the Cayes.

Boat owners are urgently advised to move their vessels to safe harbor. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea.

Coastal evacuation is being planned for 5:00 am tomorrow morning for Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. It is very likely that public transportation for Central and Northern Belize will be disrupted tomorrow to facilitate the possible evacuation of Belize City. NEMO will confirm this decision at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. In regards to this planned evacuation NEMO urges everyone to listen to their radio and television throughout the night.

Those persons who are capable of leaving on their own are advised to voluntarily evacuate Belize City, rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts. Communities of concern are Belize City, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill; Maskal; Bomba; Progresso; Copper Bank; Chunox up to Sarteneja. Evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker resumes in the morning at 6:00am if sea conditions permit.



Tomorrow school will be suspended for the entire Cayo, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including Belize City. School staff and management must report to school to prepare their schools. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

It is anticipated that Phase III-Red 2 will be declared at 6:00 .a.m. tomorrow morning.

NEMO continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. STAY ALERT! STAY TUNE! TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS AS ADVISED!

Rina is just 240 miles east of San Pedro.

Use this link to open the hurricane Rina track from CIMSS in Google earth. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/kml/CIMSS-TCmain.kml

There is also a Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Rina always in the center and you see how she spins and closing in.



More of this can be found here.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_18L/webManager/mainpage.html

IMHO we are fine - and closing schools in Cayo sounds very strange.

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 25, 2011

...Rina could become a major hurricane at any time...

The eye became obscured on conventional satellite imagery...and
consequently T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have decreased a little
bit. However...latest microwave data show a distinct eye feature
which is better defined than in earlier data. A NOAA hurricane
hunter plane investigating the hurricane measured a lower minimum
pressure of 966 mb...but neither SFMR or flight-level winds
indicate that Rina is stronger than a few hours ago. The initial
intensity is kept at 95 knots in this advisory. Given the favorable
low-shear environment and the very high oceanic heat content
prevailing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Rina could
become a major hurricane at any time before reaching eastern
Yucatan. Thereafter...Rina will find a very hostile environment of
strong shear over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico which most
likely will weaken the cyclone significantly.

Rina has been drifting westward about 3 knots...trapped south of a
strong subtropical high pressure ridge. But soon...the high will
shift eastward...and the hurricane should begin to move...still very
slowly...toward the northwest and north around the periphery of the
ridge. The cyclone is forecast to be over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and be very near northeastern Yucatan in 48 hours. There is
relatively high confidence in this portion of the forecast since
most of the guidance is quite consistent with this motion.
Beyond 48 hours...as Rina begins to interact with the mid-latitude
westerly flow...the forecast becomes highly uncertain since the
model spread increases considerably. By then...Rina either recurves
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or meanders near Yucatan as a
shallow cyclone steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast
calls for recurvature and brings a weakening Rina near the north
coast of western Cuba. This is consistent with the previous NHC
forecast.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 26/0300z 17.5n 84.8w 95 kt 110 mph
12h 26/1200z 17.9n 85.4w 100 kt 115 mph
24h 27/0000z 19.0n 86.4w 100 kt 115 mph
36h 27/1200z 20.2n 86.8w 100 kt 115 mph
48h 28/0000z 21.3n 86.7w 85 kt 100 mph
72h 29/0000z 23.0n 85.0w 75 kt 85 mph
96h 30/0000z 23.5n 83.0w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 31/0000z 23.5n 82.5w 45 kt 50 mph

hmmmmm.... still going annoyingly pretty much due west for the last 12 hours:


789. Skyepony 8:57 AM GMT on October 26, 2011
Last fix AF304 is headed home..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 08:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 7:57:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°31'N 85°08'W (17.5167N 85.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (324 km) to the E (90°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,846m (9,337ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (182°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 273° at 88kts (From the W at ~ 101.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the S (183°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:04:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the north quadrant at 8:01:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OUTBOUND SURFACE SFMR WIND 98 KTS IN NORTH QUADRANT

yeah stuck on west for awhile lately....

Rina's maximum sustained winds remained steady at about 110 mph early Wednesday, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami, making it a Category 2 storm. Forecasters predict it will strengthen as it nears the Mexican coast Wednesday night before rolling over the island of Cozumel, a popular dive spot and cruise-ship port, then along the coast to Cancun.