AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Rina

Hurricane Rina has started to make the west north west movement as was anticipated earlier. The Hurricane is still bordering on becoming a MAJOR hurricane. It is currently located 198 miles east of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 110 miles per hour, but it has picked up forward speed, now traveling at 5 miles per hour.

Listening to LOVE FM..Noreen Fairweather just gave update..[1] cayes are to continue evacuating this morning as expected to recieve cat 2 hurricane force winds [2] belize city is expected to receive tropical storm force winds - shelters will open @12:00 midday [3] national transportation system running as usual [4] cayo, belize, orange walk to corozal -schools are closed from pre-school to UB. ..

Navy track and Satellite photo Oct 26, 6AM

Latest from NOAA:

7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 26
Location: 17.6°N 85.3°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: W at 4 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb

Category 2 Rina Continues to Churn Westward
Accuweather

Oct 25, 2011 5:10 PM

Hurricane Rina: Cancun in Danger, Florida on Alert

Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.6° N, 85.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130 mph

Powerful Hurricane Rina is on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula then could impact the Florida Peninsula.

Rina has maintained Category 2 status this morning with winds at 110 mph. This puts the storm just below Category 3 strength and is expected to be upgraded later today. Upper-level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a Category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.

The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper-level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper-level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper-level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and Southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida on Friday or Saturday.

Residents of and those with interests in South Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.

There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west, south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper-level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.

One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west, south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.

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Rina Is A Borderline Category 2/Category 3 Hurricane; Hurricane Warnings Remain In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula, Including Cancun & Cozumel
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 26, 2011, 6:28 am

Hurricane Rina:

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rina is holding its own this morning. Reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight level wind of 120 mph and surface winds from dropsondes of 112 mph in the eastern eyewall. I would argue that Rina is a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane this morning rather than a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane; but, who's arguing a mere 5 mph? Satellite imagery showed a well defined outflow pattern associated with the hurricane and wind shear values from the CIMSS products indicate that there is about 20 knots of shear right over the core of the hurricane with 30 to 40 knots of shear waiting for Rina as it approaches Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday. Additionally, it appears that Rina will continue to track over some very warm ocean waters today before the ocean heat content decreases tonight into Thursday.

So, I think we will see Rina will peak in its intensity today to 120 or at most 125 mph. From there, I expect Rina to weaken tonight into Thursday and the hurricane should still be a formidable 115 mph Category 3 hurricane when it impacts Cozumel starting late tonight and continuing through all of Thursday and Cancun during Thursday and into Thursday night. By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Rina turn to the northeast and continue to weaken, however, notice that there is an area of higher ocean heat content in the southern Gulf of Mexico that Rina could track over during Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Now, at that time, the wind shear over Rina will be southwesterly at 40 to 60 mph. So, further weakening is likely and I am going with the GFDL model's idea of a track that takes Rina right across south Florida. What is interesting is that the GFDL model forecasts some strengthening of the hurricane after it tracks between the Yucatan Peninsula and south Florida on Friday; the reason for this is that area of higher ocean heat content I just talked about.

As I just mentioned I do think we will see a track that is very similar to the track that Wilma took, except Rina should be weaker when it crosses south Florida late Friday night into Saturday morning. My thinking is that Rina will track from near Cape Romano in southern Collier County east-northeastward to Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale in extreme southern Palm Beach and northern Broward County. As for intensity when it crosses south Florida, my thinking is an upper end tropical storm or the very most a minimal Category 1 hurricane. The strongest winds and worst weather would be on the right side of the storm and much of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties as well as much of the Florida Keys may receive tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall from Friday night into much of Saturday.

Ok, back to the Yucatan Peninsula, tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Cozumel this evening with hurricane force winds expected to arrive in Cozumel around dawn Thursday morning and then continue through much of the day Thursday. The worst part of the hurricane which may have Category 3 strength winds is expected in Cozumel from late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force by late Thursday afternoon and then below tropical storm force right around midnight Thursday night.

As for Cancun, tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive early Thursday morning with hurricane force winds expected by mid-afternoon Thursday. Hurricane force winds will then continue into Thursday night with the worst part of the hurricane which may have 100 to 110 mph winds from late Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force just before midnight Thursday night and then below tropical storm force during the mid and late morning hours of Friday.

Additionally, Rina will produce total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun and also a storm surge of 6 to 7 feet along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

So, in closing, it appears that the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula which does include Cancun and Cozumel will be hit quite hard by Hurricane Rina. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for this area and if you haven't done so already, you should prepare quickly for severe hurricane conditions this morning before the weather deteriorates.

Rina Information

Good Morning !
I've just listened to LOVEFM and the general info is more or less like this .......
Although alarming to hear about, the evacuation of low areas of Belize City, Ladyville etc was pro-active and admittedly erring on the side of caution. Why - because Rina did not turn north at the time this turn was expected. Had Rina continued due west, Belize City could expect to be hit. Being a little below sea level that is serious - and being one year since Richard, memories are fresh.
As of 6 am Rina is slowing its forward track and has made a hint of a turn north. Forecasters still expect Rina to follow a northward track, and to impact Cancun and Cozumel as a Hurricane, either CAT2 or CAT3.
If weather events proceed as predicted, San Pedro will experience winds under 45 MPH, some rain and high water in the lagoon.
AC evacuations were focused on those living in low-lying areas - San Mateo, San Juan, San Pedrito and DFC. That is still the case.
We we're having rain now, skies are fully gray. It's very cool and the winds are from the back.
I don't think anybody has boarded up. Most boats are out of the water.
That's the current report --- good to pay attention, but there seems no serious risk here at the moment other than Mother Nature once again telling us that San Mateo was a bad idea.

Great post Diane

....buuut Belize city is not below sea level, it may be at sea level or dare I say slightly above it. Where are the Dams and levies? For some reason that is commonly stated here!

Cheers,
Carlos

Walk into Town at High Tide: Hurricane Rina & Belize

Let me just start with this picture of Coconut Leo in what he is calling his "evacuation center at Wild Mango's" (they obviously hadn't opened yet for the day). He asks that you drop off beer and coconuts to make this "shelter" (which happens to be about 10 feet from the sea) more bareable. He thanks you in advance.



SanPedroScoop.com for the whole story and more photos

Rina still a Cat 2, and may have peaked in intensity
Jeff Masters

1:48 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

There is little change to Category 2 Hurricane Rina, which continues slowly west-northwest at 4 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 3:58 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has peaked in intensity, and may have weakened slightly since the last hurricane hunter mission. The eye is no longer visible on visible satellite loops, and the storm has a distinctly lopsided appearance, which are both signs that Rina may be weakening. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) suggest that the southern portion of Rina's eyewall may have a gap in it. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the south. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, but Rina will be leaving a region of high oceanic heat content late tonight, and will not have as much high-energy fuel to sustain itself. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Yucatan; Cozumel Island airport reported 9.10" of rain yesterday and another 3.25" as of 9 am EDT today. I'm not sure this is correct, since two personal weather stations on the island reported only 1 - 2" of rain over the past two days. The outer rain bands of Rina are visible on Cancun radar and the La Bajada, Cuba radar.

If Rina does make it to Category 3 strength, it would join a very short list of major hurricanes that have occurred this late in the year. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only twelve major hurricanes in Atlantic on October 26 or later. Rina is a medium-small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out 25 miles from the center. The latest estimates of Rina's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) made yesterday afternoon by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the damage potential of Rina's storm surge at 2.5 on a scale of one to six. This is a relatively low number for a Category 2 hurricane, and means that storm surge damage will be confined to a relatively small area in the right front quadrant of Rina's eyewall. For comparison, the storm surge damage potential for Hurricane Irene when it was a strong tropical storm approaching Long Island, New York on August 28, 2011 was 4.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, since Irene was a huge storm that put vast areas of the ocean into motion.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 7:15 am EDT October 26, 2011. Rina appears to only have the northern half of its eyewall intact. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found that Rina had a large elliptical eye with a diameter of 23 - 34 miles with a gap in the south eyewall during their 3:58 am EDT eye penetration this morning. Rapid intensification usually requires a circular eye with no gap in it, and thus I expect only gradual intensification of Rina can occur today. Wind shear is not expected to increase to the high range until Thursday afternoon, so Rina still has a day and a half to potentially intensify. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. It is more likely that Rina has peaked in strength, and will begin to weaken. On Thursday, Rina will encounter high wind shear associated with upper-level westerly winds associated with the jet stream and a trough of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, and turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. Cozumel Island off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula appears at the highest risk of receiving a direct hit from Rina; the 5 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the island a 27% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, the highest chance of any land area in the forecast. If Rina hits Mexico, it would most likely be at Category 1 strength, with Category 2 strength also quite possible. NHC is giving Rina a 21% chance of being a Category 3 or stronger hurricane on Thursday afternoon, and I don't expect the storm will be a major hurricane at landfall. The chief threat from Rina is probably its rains; the hurricane is moving slowly and has the capability of dumping 8 - 16 inches of rain over the coastal Yucatan. Western Cuba is also at risk of receiving heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, it is uncertain if the storm will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of the trough, and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF models, with the usually reliable ECMWF model continuing to predict that Rina will dissipate over the Yucatan. However, if Rina grazes the Yucatan and remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys or Southwest Florida near Marco Island, as a weakening tropical storm. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. The latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models are in-between, predicting that Rina will get very close to the Keys on Saturday, but then weaken and sink southwards towards Cuba. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct, and the threat to Florida depends strongly upon how much of a blow Mexico receives from the hurricane.

Local forecasters just announced that the storm is beginning its turn to the northwest.
They are optimistic that Rina will follow the forecast track north of us.