AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Rina

*sigh*

Well SP, you know bud, I'd get that comment if we were in the belly of the beast and it was going to get very very bad; but when you read the last few meteorologists discussion & updates maybe you'll understand why my mood was lifted when I saw that that big ole wind shear gap in the south storm wall.

What they had been forecasting (and we should all be hoping for) "seems" to be coming true and that's reason to hope for a lot of people; worth a smile in my book.

hope it doesn't come back round again..... hope it slips out east

"ALL CLEAR DECLARED"

NEMO has declared the "All Clear" for the country of Belize with effect from 4:00 p.m. today.

Classes will resume tomorrow.

A Bus will depart Belmopan UB Gymnasium at 7:00, 8:00 and 9:00 a.m.
for all evacuees to be transported back to San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow. Boats will leave Brown Sugar between 8:30 & 12:00 midday.

NEMO thanks all private sector and public sector personnel who assisted and supported the people of Belize in our time of threat for Hurricane Rina.

HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WITHIN THE SCOPE OF BELIZE RADAR...
(see image above)


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICAN BORDER.

------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT AT 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA REACHES THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

Bye Rina... see you, uh... next week maybe.

ironically, now that the "all clear" has sounded, the waves out front are probably the biggest they've been all day. Not rip out your docks big, but they'll certainly be a bit less beach in places come sun up (and more in others I suppose.) I'd say we missed "tear up the docks" weather by about 50 miles.

I would not want to be in a boat out there right now (like the one I just saw pass by.)

The most important question after Rina
The most important and many time asked question on the TV Channel from San Pedro after the "All Clear" was given:

"When will we able to buy liquor again and when will the bars be open?"

The answer:
"The selling of Alcoholic Beverages will be allowed again after 5 PM"

Only after that were questions asked about evacuated people and tourists, if by plane or boat and if School will be open tomorrow.

Cheers

I am guessing we will still see the worst wave action through the night. The energy is still out there even if the storm has weakened.

HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE DATA WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.

Just wanted to say a BIG THANKS!! To Marty and everyone for all the updates and info on all issues of Rina...what a great job...