Plan on fulling cisterns and well-watered plants.

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Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2010s.

Forecast for 98L
The west-northwest to northwest movement of 98L at 10 mph should take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's odds of development. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, above 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning; I'd put these odds higher, at 70%. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across western Cuba and the Florida Keys by Thursday, as predicted by the latest 8pm EDT (0Z) run of the GFDL model. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF models, keep the storm confined to the Western Caribbean for the rest of the week, though. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L into a tropical depression. In any case, Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands can expect heavy rain from 98L over the next three days. Heavy rains from 98L will begin to affect Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and perhaps northern Guatemala and the western half of Cuba as well. These rains may potentially last many days and cause significant flooding problems.