This morning, durn-near-hurricane Chantal presents us with good news
and bad news and Yipe!


Let's start with Yipe!

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack1/


The entire coast of Belize joins that of Yucatecan Mexico under a
tropical storm watch, but, more scarily, it's practically all in the
moderate-risk-of-direct-hit zone now.


Chantal's track is about where it was, but the width of the
risk-illuminating flashlight beam on that map shows how much
confidence prognosticators have in predictable lines of march.


Also yipe, somewhat abrupt -- for Chantal -- loss of seven millibars
of central pressure, down to 996, a sign of strengthening.


Now let's go back to the just-bad news.


She big.

www.weather.com/maps/geography/oceans/caribbeansatellite_large_animated.html


Or, in Hawaiian imagery,

http://lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/cgi...p;channel=Ui4&anim=no&size=large


There's ample water in this storm to put a serious, serious douse on
the Yucatan and points south as it goes over. Remember, inland
flooding takes more lives than all the coastal commotion in hurricanes
these days. The people on the coast know they're going to get it, and
prepare. The people inland think they're perfectly safe, and aren't.


Good news? Chantal has at last begun to edge onto a west-northwesterly
track. The due-westing is stopped for the moment. As the tropical
Atlantic map shows, airflows we've been promised are now becoming
visible. Not visible but important is that as Chantal moves westward,
she approaches powerful upper-level steering currents that are also
supposed to bend her track to a more northerly bearing -- if she
doesn't get big and bossy enough to thumb her thermals at them.


Conclusion -- This is the day to be gone if you're going, folks on the
Cayes and along the coast. Women, children, the elderly and infirm
particularly should take this opportunity for island fever relief and
indulge in a vacation inland -- just not near notorious flooding
zones.


John Lankford