Monthly Weather Summary, November 2016

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The month of November saw above average rainfall over central portions of the country; while the south and north saw below average, with the north well below. Two rain events, one at the begriming of the month and the other near the end, were primarily responsible for the greater than normal rainfall over central areas. Only one weak cold front crossed the country, and the predominant surface flow was from the northeast. No new temperature record was set.

The month started out with some rain. A surface trof that extended from Belize eastward was the focus for showers and thunderstorms during the first two days, especially in the nights. The moisture was high and the upper pattern diffluent, with an upper anticyclone centered over our area. Belize City received more than four inches of rain on the 2nd, while San Pedro and some central stations got more than two inches. The next three days (3rd,4th,5th) saw a few showers over some areas, as the trof drifted south and dissipated and a moderate northeast surface flow, supported by a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, prevailed. The upper pattern was neutral. The moisture decreased and showers were isolated from the 6th to the 8th. A broad low level trof over the central Caribbean Sea resulted in a light northeast airflow over the northwest Caribbean and Belize.

From the 9th to the 12th a few showers developed mainly in a diurnal manner; ie mostly inland during the daytime and over the coast at night. A light north-northeast airflow was supported by a surface trof over the NW Caribbean Sea just east of Belize and a ridge over southern Mexico. Some southern coastal stations recorded one to two inches on the 11th and 12th. A decrease in available moisture resulted in mainly fair weather, with only isolated showers, on the 13th, then a few showers over the south the next day. It was mostly sunny on the 15th with little or no rain. A light northerly airflow prevailed and a weak cold front reached NW Yucatan. The cold front crossed Belize the next day with a few showers and light rain developing mainly over central and southern districts. Rainfall was minimal with this front, and mostly less than one quarter of an inch. The 17th and 18th saw isolated showers mainly over the south, as a northeast airflow prevailed. A broad low pressure area developed over the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and high pressures dominated the Gulf of Mexico. The flow backed to the NNE the next two days (19th, 20th) and mainly fair weather prevailed over the mainland, while a few showers developed over the sea. The moisture was relatively low and the upper pattern generally convergent.

Skies became cloudy on the 21st with a few showers and light rain over central and southern areas, as tropical storm Otto formed east of Nicaragua. Otto would remain almost stationary, become a hurricane, then cross over southern Nicaragua on the 24th. Meanwhile, a few showers prevailed over the country through the 24th, except on the 22nd, when showers were isolated. Melinda recorded four and one half inches of rain on the 24th. High pressures dominated the Gulf of Mexico and north-easterlies prevailed over Belize over these days, as another cold front reached northern Yucatan on the 21st, then moved east without crossing Belize. Skies became overcast on Friday 25th with frequent showers and periods of rain over most areas. A moist north-northeasterly airflow, that was convergent over and just east of Belize, prevailed. Rainfall was heaviest along the coast and over the south. Belize City recorded more than four inches of rain for 25th, and some streets were flooded all day. The next day, showers and rain decreased during the morning, to become generally isolated by evening. The moisture decreased and winds became northeast by Sunday 27th and showers remained isolated. The flow then veered to the southeast during the last three days and the moisture decreased, which supported only isolated showers. The surface ridge moved east and out of the Gulf of Mexico, while low pressures developed over the western Gulf and NE Mexico/ Bay of Campeche ahead of a cold front that entered the NW Gulf of Mexico the last day of the month.