Even though Isaac is a sheared, disorganized tropical storm, it is still producing flareups of shower and thunderstorm activity across the central Lesser Antilles. In addition, Isaac is causing winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts from Antigua southward to Dominica.

So, even though Isaac looks disorganized on satellite imagery, it will still produce tropical storm force winds & heavy showers/thunderstorms across the islands of Antigua, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique today. Weather conditions will gradually improve across the Lesser Antilles on Friday.

The future of Isaac, when it moves across the Caribbean, is murky at best. The model guidance performance with the forecast intensity of Isaac has been poor so far as they have been flip flopping like crazy between showing Isaac to dissipate in the Caribbean and showing Isaac to strengthen as it moves into the western and northwestern Caribbean early next week.

The latest guidance members are no different. The GFS and FV3-GFS model forecasts Isaac to remain very weak in the Caribbean and eventually dissipate. This solution is to be questioned, however, because the GFS model is forecasting a fairly favorable environment for development and intensification once Isaac moves into the western Caribbean.

The European operational model, on the other hand, is forecasting Isaac to start ramping up near the Yucatan Channel on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with the guidance forecasting a track towards the Louisiana coast next weekend.

At this point, I think that Isaac is certainly a storm to keep a very close eye on. Even if it opens up into a tropical wave over the next day or two, I think there is a very real potential for it to spin back up into a tropical storm and strengthen as it pushes across the western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico during the early and middle parts of next week. I am monitoring Isaac very closely and will have updates for you in the coming days.

Crown Weather