AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Hurricane Tracking Info

Well good... then you'll be staying up all night to monitor? Call me at home if it looks like an emergency.

No, I think I'll see if I can get some sleep over the noise of that new bar they opened behind my Internet cafe. We'll see in the morning.

Models are all moving to the west, closer to Yucatan.
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A
TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.

AS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT
HAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN
INTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT
AT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
NEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 39
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004


AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. THIS IS THE
SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

my workin links
//AmbergrisCaye.com/hurricane/links.html

Thanks Marty, good info.

I'm watching closely...with any luck you guys will be okay...at least FL looks like they'll be safe this time....I was there for Mitch....don't want see that again....

Can someone tell Tom Murphy that Grace sends her good luck wishes....Thanks.......(on AC)

You can see why official forecasts should be watched with a grain of pure paranoia.

Cayman just took a bad smashing. Rumors of some older spots in George Town "gone" from cell phone contact with sheltering locals. 155mph sustained in wide bands over island. Ivan had a wide hurricane core sending high winds over Cayman despite center missing to south by 30 miles. Surge in streets of several feet. People sheltering in hotels mostly safe.

Ivan has obviously undershot the trough and hasn't been picked up northward yet. I think he'll shoot the Yucatan Channel and come into the Gulf Of Mexico unscathed.

Good thing for Belize this south deviation didn't happen slightly further south. Good thing for us in south Florida it did...