AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Disturbance 16

Gonna be windy and wet for a few days!!

forecasters saying winds are maxing out under 75mph

Do I need to re-stock my hurricane supplies?
(I mainly just ate all of the good stuff, like chips, and drank the beer )

here's the first track and wind speed data from Navy, who i consider the best



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

hey bunkster,, that's yer house! heads up!!

Yeah, but yer right there on the bad side Barn...

The 16th depression of the season, which would be called Paloma if it strengthened into a tropical storm, was expected to come ashore somewhere between eastern Honduras and Belize.

Its eventual strength would depend on how much time it spent over warm Caribbean waters.

The hurricane center's official forecast did not foresee the system becoming a hurricane before landfall.

Belmopan, Belize 14 October - A tropical storm watch has been issued for southern Belize as tropical depression No. 16 approaches the area. At 5 PM EDT 2100 UTC.the government of Belize through its National Emergency Organisation, NEMO, issued a tropical storm watch from Belize City southward to to the Guatemala border. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

NEMO head Noreen Fairweather chaired a meeting of the emergency coordinating organisation this afternoon and after a brieing from the Belize Meteorology Service, the tropical storm watch was declared. The National Coast Guard has deployed units to issue warnings to residents on the southern cayes (islands) and Turneffe Caye off the coast of Belize.

NEMO has advised residents in southern Belize to make urgent plans to move to higher ground and all vessels have been advised to seek safe harbour. Belize is in the rainy season and there is concern that the movement of Tropical Depression 16 over already water saturated land could lead to flash floods.


current track and data



The forecast for TD 16
Conditions are favorable for TD 16 to intensify into a tropical storm. The system is expected to track very coast to the coast of Honduras, and this proximity to land should limit intensification potential. A west-southwesterly motion into the northern coast of Honduras is not expected, since the latest set of model runs keeps TD 16 just offshore. However, it would not take much of a deviation in track for TD 16 to make landfall in northern Honduras. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water within 50 miles of land, slow intensification should occur, and the GFDL and HWRF models are expecting TD 16 to make landfall Thursday morning in Belize as a 50-55 mph tropical storm. If TD 16 manages to move farther from land, more significant intensification could occur, but that doesn't appear likely at this time.

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Tropical depression threatening southern Belize

Since the beginning of October, Belizeans have been keeping their fingers crossed hoping that the month would pass quickly without any threats from natural disasters. Today it appears it's not meant to be as around nine this morning tropical depression number sixteen formed just off the coast of Honduras and heading to southern Belize. According to Acting Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos, they have been monitoring the situation since the weekend and he advises residents in low lying areas to do the same as recent rainfalls can complicate matters.

Ramon Frutos, Acting Chief Meteorologist
"The general track of all the models combined have this thing moving westwards into southern Belize, so it is possible that tropical depression sixteen could intensify into a tropical storm tomorrow and if it reaches that strength before the tropical depression south of Puerto Rico, it will be called Marco. If the centre of tropical depression number sixteen remains offshore, then it is very possible that it could intensify into tropical storm tomorrow. That is something we will continue to monitor very closely and keep the general public abreast. What we are worried about in connection with this system is the rainfall it is bringing. The hurricane centre is predicting some four to eight inches of rainfall associated with tropical depression number sixteen as it moves over northern Honduras, north-eastern Nicaragua and southern Belize. In the hilly terrain and mountainous terrains of the region including southern Belize, they can expect rainfall in excess of fifteen inches and this amount of rainfall and the amount that we have been getting over the past couple of days could be very dangerous because it will cause rapid runoff and flash flood conditions in the hilly terrain of the Stann Creek, Toledo and even Cayo District. How early can this begin to materialize or occur? It could be as early as tonight or during the day tomorrow and Thursday night. My advice is for our citizens living in low lying areas close to rivers in the flood plains areas-because many of our communities in the south and central part of Belize are in the flood plains-should continue to monitor this very closely and begin to make preparations in case they need to evacuate and the evacuation could occur in the middle of the night so we should be prepared."

District Emergency Committees have been notified of the storm and are on alert. As for the new Doppler radar, Frutos says it has been installed but it is still being tested and won't be ready until the beginning of next month. The hurricane season closes at the end of November.

Belize joined Honduras in posting tropical storm warnings Wednesday as Tropical Depression 16 moved west with torrents of rain.

Both countries issued warnings for the entirety of their coasts and a tropical storm watch was in effect for the east coast of Guatemala, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.

Toledo District (south) just announced the closing of all schools today at mid-day - the schools will remain closed Thursday and Friday. This is to be sure kids can get home before roads flood, and to be sure families can make preparations for evacuations if necessary.
LOVEFM news indicated that Rio Hondo (north) is rising now and nearly at flood stage.