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June- too soon.
July-- stand by!
August-- look out you must.
September-- remember.
October, all over.


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elbert #307929 10/30/08 04:41 PM
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Hurricane Hattie - Oct 31st. Category 5 storm. Devastated much of Belize.

Joined: Jan 2003
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From Dr. Jeff Masters:

Late season Atlantic tropical storms
What are the odds of getting a late-season November or December tropical storm? In the active hurricane period that began in 1995, we've had nine tropical storms in November, and four in December, for an average of one late season storm per year. Six of these late season storms have become hurricanes. The record for late season named storms is four, which occurred in 2005, when three November and one December storm formed. The typical formation location for these late-season storms is the Western Caribbean or the middle Atlantic (Figure 1). The Western Caribbean storms are the most dangerous. There have been two Category 4 hurricanes that have formed in November in that region, Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (the strongest late-season hurricane on record, with 155 mph winds), and Hurricane Michelle of 2001. November storms are primarily a theat to Central America, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and the Gulf Coast of Florida.

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Quote from the san pedro daily this am...
Dr. Jeff Masters:
Given past climatology, warm SSTs in the Caribbean, and forecast low wind shear over the Caribbean for the first half of November, I put the odds at 50% we will see a named storm in the western or south-central Caribbean in the first half of November. Given the recent history of such storms, there is a 50% chance that such a storm would become a hurricane

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