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TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED. BANDING FEATURES
ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF
RAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW
SOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND
SHIPS MODELS. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.
DISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER
RICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY. RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Richard was
located near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 84.2 west. Richard is
moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This general motion
is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track...the center of Richard is expected to pass near or over the
northeastern coast of Honduras tonight...near or over the
Bay Islands of Honduras early Sunday...and could approach the
coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Richard is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the northern coast of
Honduras and Belize...and 1 to 3 feet in the Bay Islands. Near the
coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

Rainfall...Richard is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over northern Honduras...the Bay Islands...and Belize
with maximum storm total amounts around 7 inches. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...
especially in mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible over northeastern portions of Nicaragua.

Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to move over
northeastern Honduras within the warning area this evening.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area of
Honduras early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin along the coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico on
Sunday...with hurricane conditions expected along the coast of
Belize late Sunday.

from the latest HH flight this eve:

996 mb extrapolated
65-70 mph sustained winds
indications of eyewall formation in the northern 1/2, radius of curve 25 NM
center fix 16°14'N 84°14'W (16.2333N 84.2333W) or 276 miles (444 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.

Grab yer ass !

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2010

...Little Richard gradually becoming better organized...


summary of 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...16.3n 84.6w
about 150 mi...240 km ENE of la Ceiba Honduras
about 85 mi...140 km E of Isla guanaja Honduras
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/hr
present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/hr
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Richard was
located near latitude 16.3 north...longitude 84.6 west. Richard is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track...the center of Richard is expected to pass near the
northern coast of Honduras tonight and near or over the Bay Islands
of Honduras early Sunday. The center of Richard is forecast to
approach the coasts of Belize and southeastern Mexico by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Richard is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Richard is a relatively small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km from the center...
mainly to the north of the center.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 995 mb...29.38 inches.


There
has been virtually no change to the track forecast. Global models
are in excellent agreement that a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico should steer Richard on a generally west-northwestward
course during the next couple of days...bringing the center of the
cyclone close to the Bay Islands early tomorrow and inland over
Belize late Sunday or early Monday. After that...a weakening
Richard or its remnants...then a shallower system...should turn
northwestward within the low-level flow as it approaches the Gulf
of Mexico.


barring any significant interaction
with land...the recent increase in organization and the decreasing
vertical wind shear could portend additional strengthening prior to
landfall in Belize. If Richard survives its passage over land...


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 24/0300z 16.3n 84.6w 60 kt
12hr VT 24/1200z 16.5n 85.9w 65 kt
24hr VT 25/0000z 16.8n 87.7w 70 kt
36hr VT 25/1200z 17.1n 89.4w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 26/0000z 17.5n 90.7w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 27/0000z 19.0n 93.0w 25 kt...over water
96hr VT 28/0000z 21.0n 94.5w 20 kt...Post-trop/remnt low
120hr VT 29/0000z...dissipated

NEMO Public Advisory #5 - Tropical Storm Richard
By NEMO Information Unit
Oct 23, 2010, 08:00 pm

At 6:00 p.m. the center of the Tropical Storm Richard was located near Latitude 16.2 North, Longitude 84.4 West, located 270 miles East South East of Belize City. The Storm is moving towards the West at 8 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 miles per hour with higher gusts. The Hurricane Warning and Phase III of the NEMO Hurricane Preparedness Plan is still in effect for the coast of Belize.
The center of TS Richard is expected to pass near the north eastern coast of Honduras tonight. It is anticipated that the Storm will make landfall on Belize Sunday afternoon/evening as a Category 1 Hurricane.

People living in coastal communities including: San Pedro and Caye Caulker, Mullins River, Monkey River, Placencia, Seine Bight, Punta Negra, Hopkins, Sarteneja and who believe their homes would not withstand 50 mph winds or do not feel safe at their homes are advised to seek shelter. NEMO will be opening shelters for coastal districts at 6:00 p.m. this evening.



o Public Officers are being asked to report to their respective shelters.

o Travelling to the Cayes is not advised.

o Mariners are advised not to go to sea.

o If you have to evacuate do so early. If you are going to Shelter take along those things you will need. Your life is the most important possession.

o Put your Hurricane plans into action.

o If you live in an area that will flood take seriously the advice from NEMO and the Met Office and be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety. Belongings include assets, property, animals and crops.

o All Tropical Storms and Hurricane are not the same therefore take this advisory seriously.

o Remember stay tune to your radio and television over the weekend!

People who have livestock areas that are likely to flood should move them to safety. Farmers in areas that normally flood who have crops in the fields should harvest as soon as possible.

The public is advised to remain vigilant and to be prepared for heavy winds and rains which can cause life threatening floods. Continue listening to the local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service.

Crown Weather has this nice "Wind Swath Forecast Map":

I'm back from a little predawn boat ride to the reef and all we have right now is a little sprinkle and a hint of serge.
We got some rain last night but no wind.
I don't see this as being a big deal for Ambergris Caye....however it seems kinda lonely with all the boats pulled up into the mangroves for safety, the hotels boarded up and closed and lots of people evacuated.
The worst seems still 100 miles out so we could have a lot more surge tonight.

good to know thanks man... i agree, doesn't look like a super big deal at this time....

Evacuation and Shelter Coordination Information

Public Officers are being asked to be ready to manage the following Shelters by 7:00 a.m. Sunday 24, 2010. NEMO is opening Shelters along the coast starting from the areas of Golden Stream, Deep River area in Toledo including all the Shelters in the Stann Creek District where Richard is expected to make landfall. Including Shelters Northward in the Belize and Corozal Districts.

FOR LIST OF SHELTERS CLICK HERE:
http://www.nemo.org.bz/nemonews/news_releases/article_440.php

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD MOVING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 86.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF ROATAN
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND RICHARD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF HONDURAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE TONIGHT.

RICHARD IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON RICHARD MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF RICHARD NEAR THE BELIZE COAST IN
ABOUT 15 HOURS.

Tropical Weather Discussion, Crown Weather

Issued: Sunday, October 24, 2010 850 am ET/750 am CT

Tropical Storm Richard:

Infrared satellite imagery this morning showed that an eye is trying to form within a ring of deeper convection. Air Force Recon reports show that maximum winds are now 70 mph and the central pressure is 990 millibars. Richard is tracking to the west-northwest at a forward speed of 11 mph and this west-northwest track is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Richard is expected to cross the coast of Belize very close to Belize City this evening as a Category 1 hurricane. After coming ashore in Belize, Richard is forecast to continue tracking across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico on Monday and emerge over the Bay of Campeche as a weak tropical depression on Tuesday. Unfavorable wind shear in the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf of Mexico will cause Richard to dissipate by Wednesday.

Wind shear values will be quite favorable for strengthening right up to landfall this evening. If Richard establishes an eye feature today, then I suspect we will see strengthening right up to landfall. At this point, it seems likely that Richard will make landfall as a 90 to 95 mph Category 1 hurricane very close to Belize City this evening. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Richard will likely emerge over the Bay of Campeche as a weak tropical depression on Tuesday. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air will likely cause Richard to dissipate by Wednesday, even though the storm will be over warm ocean waters.

Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are likely across northern Honduras, the Bay Islands and Belize today through tonight and into Monday. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides, especially over mountainous terrain.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring over northern Honduras and hurricane conditions are expected over northern Honduras by late this morning or early this afternoon.

Across the coast of Belize, tropical storm conditions should arrive by late this afternoon with hurricane conditions expected along the coast of Belize tonight. a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the northern coast of
Honduras and Belize.

Crown Weather

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