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2pm EDT UPDATE:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MIILES...
65 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.



Tropical Storm Harvey forms, approaches Honduras
Associated Press 3 minutes ago

Tropical Storm Harvey has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and threatening to bring high winds and heavy rains to parts of Central America's coast.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras and the coast of Belize. Watches are in effect for coastal Honduras, Guatemala and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Harvey's maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph). The storm was centered about 155 miles (250 kilometers) east of Isla Roatan, Honduras. It was moving west at 10 mph (16 kph).

DATE: Friday, 19th August 2011

NEMO PRESS RELEASE #3

Tropical Depression Eight became Tropical Storm Harvey at mid-day today. The centre of the system is latitude 16.3 N, longitude 84.2 W. This position is about 270 miles east southeast of Dangriga. The TS is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 miles per hour and is expected make land fall by late Saturday evening that is the 20th of August 2011, tomorrow. The present forecast track takes the system just to the north of Dangriga. Wind speed is presently 40mph and additional strengthening is forecast. 3-5 inches of rainfall is expected.

The Government of Belize has declared a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize. We are in the Red Two Phase of the National Emergency Warning System.

People living in coastal communities particularly; Belize City, Dangriga including Wagirili, Mullins River, Gales Point, Monkey River, Silk Grass, Independence, along the Placencia Peninsula, Seine Bight, Punta Negra, Hopkins and surrounding villages that normally floods and get cut off due to flooding are advised to move to higher grounds. Including communities in the Toledo District such as Midway, Corazon, Boom Creek, Bladden, Swasey and Golden Stream. Small communities along the Coastal Road and the Old Northern Highway are also advised to move to higher ground.

The general public is hereby informed that winds are expected to reach up to 50 miles per hour. People who have livestock should move them to higher ground. Subsistence farmers who have crops in the field attend to your crops. Banana growers in the south take heed of the forecasted wind speed of 50 mph.

People living in areas known to flood are encouraged to start making the necessary preparations to move to a safe area. Fisher folks, Water Taxi Operators, Sea goers are urged not to go to Sea. You strongly advised to stay alert and listen for the marine advisories. People are not advised to travel to the Cayes at this time. All vessels are advised to seek safe harbour.

Organizers of events for this weekend are advised to consider postponing them.

NEMO and the Government of Belize are presently responding to a Tropical Storm. All NEMO staff is on full alert and key national and district committees are activated in the event the situation worsens and a rapid national response is required. Public Officers are advised to be on standby to report for duty as Shelter Wardens as the need arises. Ministries are urged to ensure all government vehicles are fueled and that those GOB vehicles assigned to assist NEMO operations are handed over to the Ministry of Works Officer in Charge in their respective location in keeping with our Standard Operating Procedures.

The Public is advised to listen to their local radio and television stations for further updates from the National Meteorological Service and NEMO.

NEMO is on high alert as we continue to monitor Tropical Storm Harvey.

:- End of Release -:

...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...

Summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information

LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

Hazards affecting land

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

next intermediate advisory...800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory...1100 PM EDT.

Satellite view laid over a map as Harvey approaches. Orange marker on San Pedro.

CLICK FOR LARGER VERSION

Satellite view of Ambergris Caye as Harvey approaches. Orange marker on San Pedro.

CLICK FOR LARGER VERSION

HD animation of Hurricane Alley from GOES satellite as storm approaches over the last few days(12mb)

Small version of the above (1mb)

Medium version of the above (11mb)

These lil movie links are always available for the most recent time period. The links still remain the same as time moves on....

That animation is a weather-junkie's dream come true.

yes it is!!!!!!

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS
HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY 1100 PM EDT.

Aerial view of the storm right now......

CLICK HERE for larger view

also click here for a grid version in black and white

track shows range for landfall from Xcalak to south of Punta Gorda. centered halfway between Dangriga and Belize City. Near Northern Lagoon and Southern Lagoon.

CLICK HERE for larger view. It's definently easier to read.