AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Monthly Weather Summaries

Monthly Weather Summary, September 2014

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The tropical waves came in September 2014 and brought much needed rains to Belize. The first day was cloudy across the country. A tropical wave crossed the country the previous day and its associated moisture and instability produced light rain and thundershowers through to the first day of September. The second of September saw only isolated showers as the tropical wave moved farther west, away from the country.

Between the third and sixth of the month, a tropical wave approached and crossed the country. This was supported by upper-level instability. The entire country experienced showers and thunderstorms.

On the seventh, another tropical wave crossed the country. The accompanying showers and thunderstorms affected mostly northern parts of Belize. Lingering moisture and instability produced a few showers on the eight.

Moisture and instability increased again on the ninth as yet another tropical wave crossed Belize. Much showers and thunderstorms accompanied its passage. This wave was also accompanied by a great amount of moisture and in its wake the following three days saw much showers and periods of rain across the country. On the twelfth and thirteenth, mainly the south of the country experienced some showers and thunderstorms.

The fourteenth saw the passage of another wave. This produced showers and thunderstorms across the country. On the fifteenth and sixteenth, shower activity gradually died down. Between the seventeenth and nineteenth, no special features affected the country. Only isolated showers were observed.

An upper-level trough moved over Belize on the twentieth and sat there for the next three days. This supported showers and thunderstorms around the country, but especially over inland areas. On the twenty-third, a tropical wave added more showers to the already wet conditions.

As the trough and wave moved away from the area, a ridge moved in on the twenty-fourth. This maintained showery weather through to the twenty-fifth. Showery weather was further prolonged on the twenty-sixth as another tropical wave crossed the country.

Showers began to decrease on the twenty-seventh and continued so on the twenty-eight. During this time showers affected mainly the south at night and early morning. This trend continued through to the twenty-ninth. On the last day, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed around the country.

In conclusion, six active tropical waves brought much needed rainfall to the country. These were enhanced by upper-level instability produced by a trough and a ridge. Data collected from around the country shows rainfall amounts were above the average for September at majority of the stations.

Monthly Weather Summary for November 2014

Our weather started out cloudy and cool for the first weekend in November. A cold front extended from eastern Cuba across western Cuba to northern Belize There was also a stationary front ahead which extended from Jamaica to Cape Gracias a Dios.A high� pressure ridge(1032hPa)� extended south across the central Gulf of Mexico to Belize and Central America. The cold front eventually merged with the stationary front during Sunday afternoon (2nd).

Variably cloudy and cool weather started the first full week in November as the influence of the high pressure ridge persisted. The surface flow over Belize was northerly to northeasterly. A stationary front extended from Haiti to the coast of Nicaragua during Monday (3^rd).Belize sounding for that morning was dry. An inversion layer was detected near 750hPa.The weather turned out cool and dry. The cool northeasterly surface flow prevailed on Tuesday as rain and showers remained mostly offshore. Skies remained cloudy into the late evening as showers and light rain occurred. The high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsulas produced an east to northeasterly surface flow over Belize and the western Caribbean. Our weather continued to be cool and mostly dry. Another cold front appeared on weather charts along the Texas Gulf Coast early Wednesday morning (5th). Cloudy skies (layered clouds) with embedded weak convection increased over northern parts of the country late Wednesday evening. A 1023hPa� surface high over northern Florida/Georgia produced a northerly to northeasterly� surface� flow on Thursday(6^th).The cold front was now over the northern Gulf of Mexico. During Thursday a few showers and periods of light rain along coastal areas moved inland after mid-morning. A high pressure ridge was noted over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday(7^th).The� front was stationary from central Florida to the northwest Gulf of Mexico then south to the western Bay of Campeche. Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the country on Saturday (8^th).On Sunday a cold front extended across the eastern Bay of Campeche and the northwest Yucatan Peninsula to a low pressure center over the Florida Straits. Another front was noted along the Texas coast.The surface flow over Belize was northwesterly. During the afternoon skies turned cloudy with satellite imagery showing bands of layered clouds coursing southeast across the mainland. A few brief showers occurred at the International Airport during the afternoon and evening as the cold front crossed Belize.

Weather conditions at the start of the second week in November turned out mostly sunny, dry and cool. A high pressure ridge across the Gulf of Mexico supported a dry east to northeasterly surface flow. During Wednesday (12^th) skies were cloudy at times and satellite imagery suggested light showers over northern, central and offshore Belize. The tail portion of the front weakened to a surface trough from central Cuba to near northern Honduras. Thursday's weather (13th) turned out sunny as well. A cold front extended from Florida across the central Gulf of Mexico to near Tabasco, Mexico. A slack pressure gradient over the northwest Caribbean ensured light surface winds. During Saturday (14^th) skies turned cloud across much of the country. The cloudiness started in the south first as a lingering surface trough (remnants of previous front) festered. For the rest of Saturday skies remained cloudy and showers occurred at several northern stations and the International Airport as well. Sunday's weather (16th) continued cloudy for central and northern Belize as a few showers and periods of light rain occurred. Weather conditions improved during the afternoon. Weather charts located a stationary front along the Texas Gulf coast and a stronger cold front further north over North-central Texas. The surface flow over Belize was easterly.

At the start of Monday (17th), the strong cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico extended from Louisiana to the northeast coast of Mexico. A dry and light southeasterly surface flow provided Belize with sunny and dry weather. A surface trough ahead of the front extended from 28°N83°W to 24°N89°W with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis. An upper level ridge was anchored over the western Caribbean. Skies turned cloudy early Tuesday (18th) morning as showers and thunderstorms developed over northern and coastal areas. The International Airport recorded 83.5mm of rain for 9:00am.A rainfall station in the Orange Walk district measured 107.2mm for that morning. Though the showers decreased later, skies remained cloudy throughout the day. At 3:00pm the cold front extended through the Florida Straits and western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula to beyond 20°N88°W.The surface trough extended from 21°N84°W to the coast of Honduras near 16°N85°W.Strong ridging occurred over the western Gulf of Mexico behind the front. The cold front crossed northern Belize early Wednesday (19th) morning. Cool and cloudy weather with rainy weather for coastal areas characterized out weather during the morning. As the day wore on the rain clouds neared other areas of the coast to produce several periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. The rainy weather persisted into to evening. The weather situation wasn't much different for at the start of Thursday (20th).The cloudy and rainy weather persisted. The stationary front extended from west central Cuba to the north coast of Honduras. The surface flow remained north to nottheasterly.Periodic outbreaks of rain showers occurred during the day. On Friday morning(21st) skies started out cloudy� and the morning sounding for Belize appeared moist(precipitable water=59.97mm).the tail end of the stationary front evolved into surface� trough across the Yucatan Straits to the coast of Belize. Though the surface flow continued light northeasterly, the cloudy sky conditions relented considerably. The weekend weather turned out quite sunny as an east to southeasterly airflow generated by an Atlantic surface high dominated.

Weather charts for the final Monday (24th) in the month showed a cold front on the Gulf coast of Texas, USA.For Belize our weather continues mostly sunny as the Atlantic surface high maintained the dry southeasterly airflow. Later on Monday, the cold front emerged over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A pre frontal trough ahead of the front was over the north central Gulf of Mexico. The cold front headed southeast across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Late Tuesday evening the front extended from central Florida across a 1011hPa surface low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery revealed the steady development of line convection over the Yucatan Peninsula and western and northern Belize during the evening. These showers and thunderstorms resulted from the pre frontal trough aligned ahead over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. The showers and thunderstorms headed east and southeast for coastal parts of the country through Wednesday morning (26th).Cloudy; cool and windy weather prevailed during the day. The cold front extended from southern Florida across the southeast Gulf of Mexico near 26°N82°W to western Cuba then to the coast of Belize near 16°N89°W.Ridging from a continental surface high(1029Pa) centred� over northern Mexico supported a j gusty northerly t o northwesterly surface flow over Belize and coastal waters. San Pedro, Ambergris Cay recorded wind gusts to 32kts, while Cay Caulker recorded gusts to 27kts.Thursday's weather continued with relatively unchanged weather conditions (cloudy, windy and cool.) Periods of light to moderate rain occurred at sea and coastal areas as well as in the south. The front was now stationary form central Honduras across the western Caribbean to eastern Cuba before transitioning to a cold front over the Atlantic Ocean. Another cold front was over the central Gulf of Mexico early Friday morning(28th).The front extended from southern Florida then curved just north of the Yucatan Peninsula to the Texas Gulf coast near 27°N97°W.A surface high over the southeast United States continued produce ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and Belize. Our weather remained cloudy and windy with periods of light rain mainly over the sea, along the coast and in the south. The Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) pushed the second front across northern Belize Friday afternoon. This front extended from eastern Cuba across Belize to Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. The stationary front was ahead and stretched from eastern Cuba, across Jamaica to offshore eastern Nicaragua. The second cold front merged with the stationary front early Saturday morning (29th).Though skies continued generally cloudy for southern Belize, elsewhere skies turned out quite sunny. Showers and the windy conditions from previous days subsided considerably. The continental surface high (1028hPa) centred near North Carolina maintained a cool north to northeasterly� surface flow. The northeasterly flow produced cloudy skies Sunday morning (30^th).Coastal showers started over coastal waters at the cayes�� close to midday, then spread too much of the coast during the afternoon and evening. The International Airport measured 113.5mm of rainfall. The rainfall was also excessive in Belize City, where localized flooding occurred at many locations.

Click on the link below for the Rainfall Summary for November,2014:

�Total Rainfall for November,2014

Click on the link below for the Minimum Temperature Summary for November,2014:

Minimum Temperature for November,2014

Click on the link below for the Maximum Temperature Summary for November,2014:

Maximum Temperature for November,2014

Click on the links below for the dekadal Rainfall Summary for November,2014:

dekad31

dekad32

dekad33

On Ambergris Caye we've had strong squalls and a down-pouring of substantial amounts of rain.

Monthly Weather Summary, December 2014

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climatology shows that the main features influencing weather across the country of Belize in December are cold fronts, upper level troughs and the development of moist northeasterly airflows in the area. There were two frontal passages in December of 2014. Additionally, a few fronts stalled just north of the country resulting in persistent moist conditions over the area. The upper levels were mostly dry during the month.

The first day of December 2014 started out cloudy with showers and rain affecting most areas of the country as a moist northeasterly airflow dominated. The following day the flow became more northerly and slightly drier as a continental ridge west of the area dominated. The ridge continued to support a cool northerly to north-northeasterly airflow for the following four days. This supported generally cloudy skies across the country but showers were confined mostly to the south.

A cold front entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico later on the 6th and slowly began to make its way southeastward. The ridge associated with this front started to influence the flow over Belize on the 7th. The result was mostly sunny and dry conditions on that day. However by the 8th the cold front had advanced far enough south to produce a moist and convergent North to Northwesterly flow over Belize. This produced cloudy conditions with showers affecting mainly the south and offshore areas. Similar conditions occurred on the 9th. The slow moving cold front then crossed the country on the night of the 9th. It did not move very far out of the area causing weather over Belize to remain cloudy and wet for the following 5 days until the 14th. Additionally, strong high pressure ridge from the west combined with relatively low pressures over the Gulf of Honduras produced a gusty north to northeasterly airflow over the area during that time. This resulted in rough sea conditions and the cancellations of several cruise ships during that week.

Moisture decreased considerably on the 15th and this pattern continued through to the 18th. The result was mainly fair and dry weather across the country.

Weather would change again on the 19th when a trof of low pressure begun approaching the country from the east. This slow moving trof produced cloudy skies with light showers and periods of rain on the 19th and 20th.

By the 21st the trof axis was west of the area and this factor coupled with frontal lows developing in the northwest Gulf of Mexico, contributed to a relatively dry east to southeasterly airflow over Belize from the 21st through to the 24th. During that time a cold front was slowly making its way toward Belize. This was the second cold front to cross the country which happened early on Christmas day (before daybreak). Moisture increase associated with this front was not enough to produce significant rainfall over Belize. Moreover, upper level conditions were not supportive of deep convective activity. The result was mostly cloudy and cool conditions on Christmas day with showers and light rain confined mostly to the south and offshore areas.

Weather conditions cleared late on the 26th but became cloudy once more on the 27th. Clouds and rain decreased once more on the 28th, and the 29th was partly cloudy with only isolated showers.

On the last two days of the month, a cold front became stationary from Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This system along with broad trofing which developed over the Western Caribbean helped to support a relatively moist East to Northeasterly airflow over Belize on the 30th and the 31st. This caused skies to be cloudy at times with occasional showers affecting the country.

Overall rainfall for December 2014 was normal for most stations in the south and central areas of the country while stations in the north recorded above normal rainfall.

Monthly Weather Summary, January 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

January 2015 began with relatively moist conditions across Belize. Ridging from a continental high pressure system over the South-Central, United States of America and a stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico, supported a moist east to north-easterly flow. For the first two days, this moist flow supported a few showers across the country. A gusty south-easterly set in on the third day, but moisture persisted and maintained a few showers around the country. The gusty south-easterly flow persisted on the fourth day and dried up the moisture.

However, on the fifth, another stationary front in the Bay of Campeche induced a backing of the winds and a moist north-easterly flow set in once again. This supported a few showers around the country. As the north-easterly flow persisted on the sixth and seventh day, showers became confined to the south of the country.

On the eighth day, a cold front reached as far south as Northern Belize. It supported an increase in showers across the country. This front quickly dissipated late on the same day. However, the associated shear line remained over Northern Belize on the ninth. The following day, it moved to Southern Belize and then into the Gulf of Honduras. From the ninth to the twelfth, this system supported showery weather across the country. The associated high pressure ridge over the Northwest Caribbean maintained a moist north-easterly flow, which supported cloudy and rainy weather on the thirteenth and fourteenth.

From the fifteenth to the twenty-third, weather conditions improved. Moisture levels decreased and showers became generally isolated, at times none at all. This was after a cold front slipped into the Gulf of Mexico earlier on the twenty-first and induced an east to south-easterly flow. Late on the twenty-third, pre-frontal activity supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over some inland and northern areas.

On the twenty-fifth, a cold front quickly crossed the country, accompanied by a few light showers. On the twenty-sixth, the associated high pressure ridge supported a dry and cool northerly flow. However, the following day saw cool and rainy weather. On the twenty-seventh night, another cold front quickly crossed the country, which supported cool and dry conditions through to the twenty-eight. Moisture levels increased on the twenty-ninth and persisted through to the end of the month. This supported showers mainly over southern Belize.

January in Belize falls in the transition period between the 'wet season' and 'dry season'. Climatologically, it is the coldest month of the year. Data collected this January, however, shows that minimum temperatures were above normal. On the other hand, data shows that rainfall was above normal. Even though three cold fronts affected the country, it is evident that the associated high pressure ridge did not supported the normal cool temperatures. On the other hand, the persistent moist, north-easterly flow that dominated for most of the month, supported above normal rainfall.

Monthly Weather Summary, March 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

March 2015 was not as dry as dry as normal, and only one dissipating cold front reached Belize and stalled. The first two days of the month saw a few showers over some areas during the mornings, as a ridge to the north along 29/30N supported a moderate to fresh east-northeasterly surface flow, along with a weakly convergent upper pattern and northwest upper winds. Showers became isolated on Tuesday 3rd as moisture decreased, and the next two days were mostly sunny and dry. The surface flow veered a bit to the east and east-southeast and was gusty on the 4th. The upper pattern continued weakly convergent.

The presence of a cold front over the eastern Bay of Campeche and the associated ridging over southern Mexico on Friday 6th caused a backing of the surface flow to the east-northeast and a slight increase in moisture. The front dissipated on the 7th and a few showers developed mainly over northern portions of the country from the 6th to the 8th. Early morning fog was reported over some central low lying areas on the 8th, as the gradient slackened over our area. On Monday 9th, a low level wind surge moving in from the east resulted in some showery weather over central areas of the country. A total of 21.5mm of rain fell at the PGIA and 22.9 in Belize City. A gusty east-southeasterly surface and low level flow prevailed on the next two days then dropped off a bit on Thursday 12th. Showers were isolated over those three days (10th-12th).

On Friday 13th, a few showers developed mainly over central and northern areas as moisture and low level convergence increased moderately when cold front stalled from near New Orleans to the central Yucatan Peninsula along 90W. An upper trof to the west along 100w and a ridge over the Caribbean Sea resulted in a weakly divergent upper pattern over our area. Savannah recorded 16.8mm of rainfall; while Belmopan recorded 47.3mm. The portion of the front over the Yucatan Peninsula dissipated the next day, however a few showers continued over some areas from the 14th through the 18th as the surface flow varied between east and east-northeast. The moisture was generally low, but fluctuated sufficiently along with low level convergence to support the showers. The upper pattern continued weakly divergent through the 16th, then became weakly convergent on the 17th and 18th.

Showers became generally isolated on Thursday 19th, however Punta Gorda received 14.7mm of rain. A single isolated thunderstorm developed over the Vaca Plateau during the afternoon of Friday 20th. Mainly fair and dry weather prevailed from the 21st to 26th, with slightly warmer temperatures from the 24th to the 26th. The surface airflow was relatively dry and mainly from the east-southeast during that seven day period, with a neutral to weakly divergent upper pattern.

Friday 27th was sunny in the morning, then some showers and thunderstorms affected most areas during the evening and night as a pre frontal trof crossed the country. Pomona measured the most rainfall with 33.2mm; while Belmopan had 24.5mm and Punta Gorda got 20.5. The next day was cloudy over the west and south with some showers over the west and south, and over the northern Cayes later. Savannah reported rainfall totalling 68.7mm. The associated cold front weakened and the diffuse tail end drifted south over northern Belize during the afternoon of Saturday 28th then to central Belize the next day Sunday 29th. Some showers occurred over some parts of the coast in the morning then over most areas in the afternoon and evening, especially the Belize City area. Rainfall of 20.4mm was measured at the PGIA; while Belize City recorded 69.8mm and the Belize Zoo 67.9mm. The portion of the front over and just east of Belize dissipated altogether on Monday 30th and the last two days of the month saw decreasing shower activity, with a few showers mainly over the south on Monday 30th and Tuesday 31st. Most stations recorded some rainfall, with amounts ranging from 5-15mm.

Monthly Weather Summary, April 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Climatologically, the Atlantic High Pressure ridge usually dominates the region during the month of April. Its orientation typically produces a dry southeasterly airflow across the country. At times heat-lows may develop across southern Mexico which causes pressure gradients to tighten over the area resulting in gusty winds. However, when the centres of these systems are over or very near the country, pressure gradients would instead slacken causing light winds and an excessively high heat-index. This overall synoptic pattern for the month normally corresponds with dry and warm weather. The only relief would come in the form of an occasional cold front. On average about two cold fronts would cross the country during the month. These may be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms and they are the main producers of the little rainfall for the month. April 2015 was characteristically warm and dry. Only one cold front crossed the country on the very last day of the month.

The first day of the month started out cloudy at times with a few showers as a relatively moist easterly airflow dominated. The airflow continued easterly the following day but moisture decreased and only isolated showers were observed. A similar situation occurred on the 3rd. The flow shifted to the east to northeast on the 4th through to the 7th but moisture remained low and conditions were mainly fair and dry. The flow veered once more to the east on the 8th through to the 11th but weather conditions continued generally fair with only isolated showers across the country.

The characteristically warm and dry weather started on the 12th when heat lows over Mexico coupled with the Atlantic High Pressure ridge to the northeast of area caused the dry and gusty east to southeasterly airflow to set in. This pattern actually lasted until late in the month around the 26th. This resulted in warm and mostly dry weather with little to no rainfall across the country, except for an occasional afternoon thunderstorm in the interior. Temperatures increased significantly around the 21st and peaked around the 28th of the Month. Maximum temperatures in excess of a 100°F occurred over some inland areas on several days during this period.

The late-season cold front began approaching the country around the 28th. On that day a prefrontal trof over the area caused afternoon thunderstorms to flare up inland and over the northern districts. Thunderstorms once again flared up on the 29th but this time they moved across the country by nighttime as the cold front was getting nearer. The cold front was over Belize on the 30th and it produced a generally cloudy day. However, by that time most of the thunderstorm and shower activity were confined mainly to the Sea.

Monthly Weather Summary, May 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

May first, 2015 was a cloudy and cool day across Belize. Minimal rainfall activity was observed. A ridge in the Gulf of Mexico supported a cool and moist north-easterly air flow, while a stationary front was observed from Northern Honduras to Cuba. On the second and third day, the ridge continued to support the moist north-easterly flow. As a result a few showers affected coastal areas.

From the fourth to the thirteenth, after the ridge collapsed, a dry and gusty (at times) east-south-easterly air flow developed. A the same time, a convergent pattern developed aloft.

On the fourteenth and fifteenth, the upper- levels became divergent over the southern areas of the country. As a result, night time thunderstorms were observed over the extreme south, while minimal rainfall activity was observed elsewhere.

The weather remained fair and mostly dry on the sixteenth and seventeenth, then night time thunderstorms were once again observed over the extreme south on the eighteenth.

A convergent pattern developed and prevailed between the nineteenth and twenty-second. At the lower-levels, a dry pattern persisted and minimal rainfall activities were observed.

On the twenty-third, an upper -level trough moved over the area, supporting a divergent pattern. A few showers and thunderstorms affected most areas of the country.

The pattern aloft changed as early as the twenty-third night and became convergent. From such time to the thirtieth, fair and mostly dry weather prevailed across the country.

Another trough aloft on the thirty-first and increased moisture at the lower-levels supported a few showers and thunderstorms.

In conclusion, observation indicates that May 2015 was mostly dry across Belize. An east to south-easterly flow, gusty at times, prevailed for majority of the days. Two upper-level troughs and increased low-level moisture supported the bulk of the rainfall on the twenty-third and on the thirty-first.

Monthly Weather Summary, June 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

Moist and unstable conditions prevailed during the Monday 1st as a northeasterly surface - low level flow developed in advance of a tropical wave. At the upper levels a west-northwesterly flow prevailed with a trough over the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge from the Eastern Pacific across Central America supported a diffluent pattern aloft. A low developed along the wave over the Gulf of Honduras by Tuesday 2nd with the associated trough extending north to near western Cuba. Light winds and land breeze effects added to coastal convergence. Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts of two to five inches were recorded at some stations across the country during Monday 1st and one to two inches Tuesday the 2nd.

By Wednesday 3rd as the low tracked northeast towards northeast Yucatan, an upper level trough positioned over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and maximum divergence shifted east of our area. Twenty-four hour rainfall amounts were significantly reduced. However during the Thursday 4th and Friday 5th a deep layer southerly flow resulted in showers and thunderstorms developing in the south over-night with light showers spreading north across the country through the early morning. As the 1013hPa low drifted to western Cuba and upper level trough positioned along eastern Yucatan and Belize, some rainfall continued to affect some areas during the Saturday 6th and Sunday 7th and increasing while affecting most aread during the Monday 8th with 24 hour rainfall in the order of 1-3 inches.

As another tropical wave approached, the resulting northeasterly airflow got upper level support from a west-southwesterly flow aloft. The tropical wave crossed Central America by Tuesday 9th and the axis of the upper level trough reposition east of Yucatan and Belize with a ridge across the Western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms over-night and into the early morning the Wednesday 10th were accompannied by strong and gusty winds up to 40 knots over northern and coastal areas. During the Thursday 11th and Friday 12th the surface trough / tropical wave near northern Belize and Yucatan deepened and then developed into a low by the Saturday 13th. A diffluent west-southwesterly flow prevailed aloft and showers and thunderstorms developed inland and spread east towards the coast. Light rainfall continued to affect some areas of the country the next few days.

The low moved into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually developed into Tropical Storm Bill by the Tuesday 16th while a tropical wave crossed Central America south of 17N. Improved weather conditions developed the next few days with only isolated showers or thunderstorms. This was as a result of a relatively dry and dusty 900-550hPa layer and a gusty east-southeasterly flow along with a convergent northwesterly flow aloft.

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms affected mostly the south during Thursday 18th but mainly fair weather with only isolated showers prevailed during Friday 19th through the Monday 22nd. Showers and thunderstorms increase over-night Tuesday 23rd into the Wednesday 24th as a surge in low level winds and moisture preceeded an approaching tropical wave. An upper level low over northwestern Yucatan provided upper level support in the form of a diffluent southwesterly flow. Moist and unstable conditions persisted over-night Thursday 25th into the Friday 26th with showers and thunderstorms again accompanied by squally conditions.

Relatively dry and hazy conditions prevailed during Friday 26th and Saturday 27th as a dry layer developed at low levels while conditions continued moist and unstable at the upper levels. Low level moisture increased during Sunday 28th while at upper levels a ridge to the west and trough east of the area supported a convergent northwesterly flow. Showers and thunderstorms affecting mostly the south of the country during night-time / early morning hours with lighter activity over the remainder of the country during the daytime and these conditions continued through the final days of June.

Monthly Weather Summary, July 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The month of July 2015 saw less rain than normal. All stations recorded below average rainfall, with all stations in the north and one in the south receiving less than 25 percent of the average rain for the month. Temperatures also seemed to be a little above normal.

The month started off with mainly fair conditions and isolated shower activity, as a moderate easterly surface flow prevailed. A tropical wave on the 2nd produced some showers and thunderstorms over most areas. Punta Gorda recorded 19mm of rain on the morning of the 2nd, and Libertad a similar amount on the 3rd. The tropical wave moved away and mainly fair and dry conditions prevailed the next two days, with moderate to strong surface winds on the 3rd. The weather continued mainly fair with isolated shower activity through the 7th, except for a few morning showers over some parts of the south on the 5th. Easterly winds became fresh to strong at times. Skies then became cloudy during the afternoon and evening of the 8th and some showers developed in the evening and night. Stations over the central portion of the country received 35-40mm of rain, while Punta Gorda received almost 50mm.

An approaching tropical wave along with unstable upper level conditions caused by an upper low over southern Mexico were responsible for the increase in showers. A few showers continued over central and southern areas for the next two days as the tropical wave moved slowly away and a moderate easterly flow prevailed. Middlesex, Pomona and Punta Gorda all recorded 50-60mm of rain for the 24 hours ending at 9:00am on the 10th. The flow shifted to the east-northeast on the 11th and 12th with mainly fair conditions along with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms. An upper ridge over the eastern Pacific resulted in a weakly convergent northwest pattern aloft. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms affected mostly inland areas on the 13th and 15th, with isolated shower activity the day between. A light east-southeast airflow prevailed on those days. An increase in moisture and unstable upper level conditions, produced by a trough over southern Mexico on the 16th , supported some showers and thunderstorms over the south early in the morning that spread north during the day.

Punta Gorda reported 107mm of rain that morning, while Hershey reported 30mm, with all other stations receiving much less. A moderate easterly airflow, supported by a surface high/ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, with only isolated showers prevailed during the next two days as conditions dried out. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms then developed on the 19th in association with a weak surface trough over the northwest Caribbean. A moderate east-southeast airflow prevailed at the lower levels. Hershey and Punta Gorda both received 27mm of rain that morning. The airflow dried out and the next three days were mainly fair and warm. The weather continued warm on the 23rd, but with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms. A neutral high level pattern prevailed, with an upper ridge to the south and an upper low north of the Yucatan peninsula. A moderate easterly surface flow and moderately high moisture levels supported a few showers mainly over southern districts during the day and night of the 24th. Mainly fair and warm weather then prevailed from the 25th to the 27th.

Two weak tropical waves then supported isolated thunderstorms and a few showers over most areas during the next three days. A few stations over the central and southern portion of the country received rainfall of more than 30mm during those days. The upper pattern was mostly neutral with an upper low over Honduras on the 30th. The last day of the month saw a return to mainly fair, warm and dry conditions, as the moisture decreased and the surface flow veered a bit to the east-southeast.

Monthly Weather Summary, August 2015

Climate statistics show that the main weather features that affect the country of Belize during August are tropical waves, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and an occasional tropical cyclone. The month of August is also characterized by a two-week dry spell referred to locally as the 'Maga Season'.

August 2015 saw the passage of three tropical waves. Although a few of them were enhanced by several TUTTs, they were nevertheless rather weak and produced limited precipitation. No tropical cyclone affected the country during August this year which is overall reflective of the rather benign 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. An intense El Nino is responsible for the inactive season. This system is also wreaking havoc across the area as drought conditions are being experienced across most of the region including Belize. This resulted in a dry and warm August across the country.

This first day of August 2015 started off mostly sunny with only isolated showers affecting the country. However a weak tropical wave was approaching and it crossed overnight. This produced a slight increase in moisture but by the 2nd moisture was decreasing once more and showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated. Between these two days Pomona in the south recorded 6.3 mm of rain while Hershey recorded 25.1 mm.

Conditions were mainly fair and warm on the 3rd of the month with only a few brief morning showers in the interior. Similar conditions persisted on the 4th. The second tropical wave for the month crossed the country on the 5th. This system was enhanced by an upper level low and produced rainfall amounts of 7.9 mm, 6.1 mm and 9.5 mm at Belmopan, Tower Hill and Libertad, respectively. The upper low continued to produce divergent conditions on the night of the 5th and even on the 6th, although low level moisture had decreased once more. Central Farm recorded 25.0 mm of rainfall on the 6th while Hershey recorded 24.0 mm.

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevailed across the country from the 7th to the 10th and then moisture and instability increases slightly on the 11th. The main culprit was an upper level low over Yucatan which helped to support divergent conditions aloft over Belize. This resulted in cloudy spells with a few showers affecting mainly inland areas of the country. Belmopan recorded 40.1 mm of rainfall that day while Hershey got 24.0 mm.

The 12th saw a return to mostly dry conditions over the country but a few morning showers were noted. Although Melinda recorded its monthly maximum rainfall of 35.5 mm on the 13th, it was a generally dry day across the country. A similar trend continued on the 14th. However, a tropical wave (the third for the month) and an upper level low crossed the country during the night of the 14th. Left over activity from these systems produced a few morning showers and thunderstorms on the 15th. 11.3 mm of rainfall was reported at Savannah while Hershey recorded 30.0 mm. The low/trough west of the area kept upper level conditions relatively divergent on the 16 and 17th and supported generally isolated showers and thunderstorms across the country.

Conditions became mostly dry from the 18th through to the 23rd. Of the 11 stations sampled for this report, none reported significant rainfall during this period. A dry east to southeasterly airflow prevailed at the surface. While an upper low crossed the country on the night of the 21st, it did not produce any significant activity. The exception was the extreme south where an isolated thunderstorm developed that night.

The 23rd to the 28th of the month saw a slack pressure pattern develop over the area. This resulted in light winds which cause the daytime heat to become almost unbearable across the country. Rainfall continued generally low during this period but a digging polar trof from across the Gulf of Mexico would help to produce upper level instability on the 27th and 28th. This resulted in an increase in rainfall on these days. 7 of the 11 stations recorded rainfall above 5 mm on the 27th which could be characterized as a relatively wet day. The activity was mostly over the south and coast during the morning of the 27th and over inland areas during the afternoon. On the 28th activity decreased slightly but 4 stations still recorded significant rainfall (above 5 mm). The highest was Hershey with a total of 36.2 mm.

Rainfall totals decreased once more from the 29th through the 31st. The main surface feature to affect the country during this period was a surface trof which was the remnants of former Tropical Storm Erika. This caused light East to Northeasterly winds on the 29th through to early on the 30th. However, winds became East to Southeasterly later on the 30th through to the 31st and conditions continued mostly dry.

In Summary the month of August 2015 could be considered a very dry and warm month. Although a brief dry spell (the Maga Season) can be expected in this month, the dry was much more severe this year. The most likely culprit is the strong El Nino currently affecting the region. This feature continues to produce extreme drought conditions over the area. The table below summarizes the rainfall totals for the 11 sampled stations across the country compared to their monthly average. As can be seen, most stations recorded well below their average rainfall totals for the month.

Monthly Weather Summary, September 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

September 1, 2015 was a warm and mostly dry day. Showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated. This trend continued for another two days.

On the fourth, there was an increase in low-level moisture over the area. As a result, the country experienced some showers and thunderstorms. This decreased the following day. However, the south continued to experience some showers and thunderstorms that same night. This was the trend for the next six days. Daytimes saw warm temperatures and isolated showers or thunderstorms. Nighttimes saw a few showers and thunderstorms over the south of the country.

The eleventh, twelfth, and thirteenth saw warm temperatures and isolated shower activity. The fourteenth to the sixteenth saw more shower activity, but mostly over the south. The following two days saw warm temperatures and isolated shower activity.

Moisture increased on the nineteenth and showers and thunderstorms also increased across the country. This continued through to the twenty-second. The following day, a trough of low pressure developed over the Southwest Caribbean and moved over Belize. This further supported showers and thunderstorms across the country, but more so over coastal areas. This continued through to the twenty-sixth. Showers moved from south to north of the country; the path of the trough. On the twenty-sixth, the trough moved into the Gulf of Mexico, carrying much of the moisture from over Belize.

From the twenty-sixth to the end of the month, only isolated showers or thunderstorms were observed around the country. Rainfall data obtained shows the normal pattern of rainfall, increasing from north to south. Amounts ranged from 106 millimetres in the north to 404 millimetres in the south. Generally speaking, this indicates below normal rainfall for the month of September at key stations around the country.

Monthly Weather Summary, October 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Joaquin dominated our weather during the first few days of October. Joaquin meandered over the Central Bahamas while an induced ridge extended across Mexico and northern Central America during Friday 2nd into Saturday 3rd. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms moved from the northwest to southeast across the country during Thursday 1st associated with pre-frontal activity, then a weak cold front crossed the country during the late evening of the 2nd into the over-night and rapidly weakened into a frontal trough from Central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Upper leval conditions became drier as a northeasterly flow developed and along with a dry northwesterly surface - low level flow supported mainly fair weather during Saturday 3rd. Except for isolated showers over the Maya Mountains these conditions persisted during the following days and Thursday 8th.

By Friday 9th a surface - low level trough extended from Florida to northwest Yucatan and supported a diurnal pattern of shower activity the next couple days. Over-night Saturday 10th into Sunday 11th a pre-frontal trough extended across Yucatan to just north of the country while a tropical wave along 84W approached from the east. Mainly fair weather conditions prevailed during Monday 12th and Tuesday 13th. By Wednesday 14th a divergent southwesterly flow developed aloft with a trough across the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Tehuantepec and ridge over the Caribbean. At the surface and low levels a trough extended from offshore Costa Rica northwest through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over the south over-night the 14th into the 15th and spread north and northwest across the country.

Relatively moist and unstable conditions developed during Thursday 15th and Tuesday 20th as the trough remained quasi-stationary while a tropical wave moved into the area. The system would develop into an area of disturbed weather accompanied by a 1008hPa low over the Gulf of Honduras with a low chance for tropical development due to proximity land. By Saturday 17th the system drifted west to the border areas of Belize and Guatemala and a broad monsoon type flow developed. At the upper levels a high straddled southern Belize and the Gulf of Honduras and provided unstable conditions aloft.

Heavy showers and intense thunderstorms developed between Belize City and Turneffe atoll over-night Sunday 18th and Monday 19th while additional showers and thunderstorms affected the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains and later over the northern districts. The heavy rainfall produced unpresedented localized flooding in low lying areas of Belize City and Nemo / Cemo had to be activated to render assistance to stranded residents in the city who had to be admitted to shelters, while river levels also rose over some other areas of the country. Another area of low pressure developed a couple hundred miles east of Belize City by Tuesday 20th with the associated trough drifting to the coast of Belize and eastern Yucatan by Tuesday 20th. An upper level trough maintained unstable conditions aloft.

Improving conditions developed during Wednesday 21st. The upper levels dried-out as a high centered over southern Mexico supported a northerly to northwesterly flow, while at the surface a 1010hPa low was positioned over the Bay of Campeche. A light east-southeasterly flow developed, however some residual moisture supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south during the night. Mainly fair and dry weather developed the next few days. with early morning fog patches blanketing the Belize River Valley areas during Friday 23rd. Moisture increased at the upper levels during Saturday 24th and Sunday 25th but total available moisture remained relatively low as conditions were drier at or near the surface. Showers were generally isolated along with isolated air-mass thunderstorms developing inland due to daytime heating and over the south and coast over-night.

A cold front moved into the eastern Bay of Campeche by Sunday 25th and some pre-frontal activity in the form of showers and thunderstorms developed over inland areas during Monday 26th. Similar activity re-developed over the higher elevations of the Maya Mountains in the afternoon of Tuesday 27th, however conditions were mainly fair over-night. Except for some high level moisture and high clouds drifting north to south across the area, weather conditions were mainly fair and mostly dry during the last few days of October. Showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated.

Monthly Weather Summary, November 2015

National Meteorological Service of Belize

November 2015 was rather wet, with most stations across the country receiving two to three to times the normal monthly rainfall. No cold front crossed the country; however a weak and dissipating frontal trough did drift south across our area near the end of the month.

The month started off mainly fair with only isolated shower activity. The Atlantic ridge extending into the NW Caribbean supported a moderate east-southeast surface flow on the first day, then the ridge retreated, and a light east-northeast flow prevailed. The upper pattern was weakly convergent, with a TUTT low moving south to near NE Honduras on the 3rd. The weather became cloudy and showery on the 4th; the moisture increased as a surface trough approached from the east. The PGIA recorded 23mm of rain, the most for that day. A few showers lingered mainly over northern districts over the next two days, as a low developed near northern Belize and moved northwest to northern Yucatan by the 6th. Generally isolated showers prevailed on the 7th, and an east-southeast surface flow dominated the surface and low levels. The next four days (8-11) was cloudy at times with a few showers over most areas along with isolated thunderstorms. A weak tropical wave crossed on the 10th and a more active one on the 12th. The airflow became moist on the 12th and the surface flow backed to the east-northeast. Showers increased, especially over the south. The upper pattern varied from weakly divergent to neutral from the 8th to the 11th, then became divergent on the 12th as an upper trough to the west amplified. Cloudy to over skies then prevailed from the 13th to the 16th, with several showers and intermittent periods of light rain especially over the south. Rainfall from the 12th to the 15th ranged from a little than less than 100mm in the north to just above 300mm in the south. A surface trough moved slowly across the country on the 14th, then lingered from the Bay of Campeche, across Belize, to northwest Honduras for the day, after which it drifted west and dissipated. The heavy rains in the south that weekend resulted in flooding of some rivers and nearby villages in the Toledo district. The airflow then veered to the east-southeast on the 17th and conditions improved by that afternoon. Only isolated showers prevailed the next day then the moisture increased once again on the 19th, as a weak surface low developed east of Nicaragua and the flow backed to the east-northeast. A few showers occurred over most areas that day and the following. A light easterly surface flow, moderate moisture levels and a neutral upper pattern result isolated showers on the 21st. The next three days (22-24) saw partly cloudy skies with a few showers mainly over southern districts, as a cold front approached and stalled just north of Belize on the 24th. The associated surface ridge over southern Mexico caused the surface flow to become northwesterly as the front stalled under a weakly convergent upper pattern. The front weakened the next day and showers were generally isolated, but increased during the night. The dissipating frontal trough/ remnants then drifted south on the 26th and produced cloudy and showery weather mainly over central and southern areas, as a moderate northeasterly low level flow prevailed. Some stations in the central regions of the country recorded 75-85mm of rainfall on the 26th. The upper pattern was weakly convergent, with a ridge over our area from an upper high centered over southern Mexico. The moisture decreased and showers were isolated on the 27th and 29th; but a few light showers / light rain affected central and northern areas on the 28th and 30th. A convergent surface pattern and slight increases in moisture was responsible for this off and on slight to moderate increase in showers, as the upper pattern continued subsident/convergent.