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We May Be Seeing The End of The First Wave of COVID

We note that two days ago, the health minister spoke not about 90 tests a day, but he said that they could do 200 seemingly for an indefinite period.

But, that aside, testing right now suggests that what Manzanero called the first of many waves could be at an end:

Dr. Marvin Manzanero, DHS
"Understand also that this is for the next 2 weeks; if you don't identify a case, as we had said for this outreach, this first wave would have considered to have been over, but don't confuse that message with the fact that we are saying we are over Covid-19. We can have potentially many more waves throughout the year. We don't even know if this is going to be an annual activity that happens, but when we have said this we are talking about this specific outbreak and that's why we wanted to have a Q & A to discuss that specific item. We cannot let our guard down. If we are thinking there is a potential case out there that's asymptomatic then we cannot let our guard down, because then you are going to have a second wave that can be much more intense and can spread much more quickly than what we have had so far."

Is Belize COVID Free?

But, as this so called first wave seems to be ending - can Belize currently say that it is COVID free? Manzanero says it does seem that way, but reminded the public that we are all one reckless trip across the border from having a case imported through the backdoor:

Dr. Marvin Manzanero, DHS
"Any positive tests for 2 weeks and counting, can we conclude that Belize currently does not have Covid-19, assuming that the orders remains close."

"We would want to wait until May 11, because you would have done 2 cycles of the incubation period before we can say that we don't have any case. It doesn't seem to be right now and the number of acute respiratory failure cases has decreased significantly, so we have to be on the lookout and again if you are having people that are going to the northern border illegally, in the back of our minds that where I think the next wave can potentially from is with people who are going across the border, assuming we are able to lock down as a country you have nobody else coming outside and you are able to determine there is no more cases, eventually what is going to break can be a case of somebody who goes across the border and comes back."

Regardless of New Regs, New Normal Will Persist

So, tomorrow the old State of Emergency ends and a new one begins with new COVID 19 regulations. It will see government starting to re-open the economy and all the details will be announced at a virtual press conference which the Prime Minister will host tomorrow morning.

Manzanero says that whatever the new regs are - he reminds Belizeans that there is a new normal in effect - and we cannot act as we once did:

Dr. Marvin Manzanero, DHS
"The consideration that we should all be having is not how and when we are going to open short term medium term and long term, but it's what we are going to do to be able to go about our business in a safe way. I think that's the consideration that we have, because even as with everything is being open up we are recommending that everybody be physical distancing, not social distancing. That you need to be able to put with others needs to be there. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that anybody you meet on the street you have to assume it's a Covid-19 case. If you are able to understand that and we go about our business then I think we would have taken a step further. My headache right now to be honest is that my immediate perception is that I don't think we have learnt much from what has happened in phase 1, that's my personal perception. I think we are starting to go about doing our business as if nothing has really happened and that can't happen."

Channel 7

Only three active cases remain as we have 4 more recovered cases.

COVID-19 UPDATE from the Director of Health Services:

This is today's data.

We have 3 patients pending recovery and we have started the process for random and expanded testing with samples having already been processed.

The Central Medical Laboratory worked today as a normal day so kudos for ALL health care workers who worked throughout the day and across the country.

By no means - NO MEANS - can we consider ourselves to be in the clear and we should continue preparing for the new norms in our lives.

Physical distancing in terms of COVID-19 is part of the new norm - at least for the next two years.

Please, let's stay safe and at all times exercise hygienic measures.

COVID-19 Update: Infographics

As noted, last week, towards the end of the week we would be providing the data behind the infographic for Belize.

In the infographics attached, we have Belize's data up until today compared to some Caribbean countries and the first graph indicates how Belize compares to New Zealand, Iceland, Hong Kong and Singapore in terms of their 'curves'.
There is also a growth rate comparison with all other English speaking Caribbean countries. (first 3 graphs courtesy of UWI)

The final graphs highlight the tests done per district and the distribution of tests for Belize by age groups.

We remain at 18 confirmed cases with 3 pending recovery.

Our insistence for:

- Proper and consistent hand washing
- Proper respiratory etiquette
- Physical distancing
- Staying home as much as you can and when out in public, ensuring that you are taking necessary precautions

#14 RECOVERED COVID-19 PATIENT
UPDATE
This is our data for Sunday, May 3rd, 2020.
We have one more recovered patient and we anticipate that the other two patients will recover later on this week.

Belize now has ZERO active cases. This is great news; however we must still be cautious and continue to follow the preventative measures: washing of hands, social distancing, good hygiene, staying at home, wearing of face mask and more.

We can now confirm that our last two active cases have recovered as their second test is now negative!
We however, need to continue to exercise the preventive measures across all sectors as the numbers with our neighbours continue to go up.

Neighbouring Guatemala up to yesterday has reported 730 cases with 46 cases being in the Eastern (includes Peten) part of Guatemala and the neigbhouring state of Quintana Roo is reporting 956 cases up until midday today with a total of 24 cases in the neighbouring municipality of Othon P. Blanco (Chetumal included in this data).

We need a community effort as we move along to prevent any more cases of COVID-19.

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Belize Not COVID-19 Free says Dr Manzanero
Belize is down to zero active COVID-19 cases. This is the good news that emerged from the Ministry of Health this afternoon and is widely welcomed by Belizeans. But according to Director of Health Services, Doctor Marvin Manzanero, we have not beaten the pandemic as yet. While the last two cases resulted in negative after two rounds of tests, there are fifteen persons still under investigation. Doctor Manzanero says that Belize is not, we repeat, not COVID-19 free. In the first wave of COVID-19, Belize registered eighteen positive cases, two of which resulted in deaths. One thousand, one hundred and twenty-eight tests were conducted. Officials are expecting a second wave, which according to Doctor Manzanero, can be more severe and deadly.

Neighbouring countries in the north and west, Mexico and Guatemala, are recording an increase of COVID-19 cases. With Belizeans illegally crossing the border, the possibility of a more lethal second wave is looking like a real possibility. Guatemala has recorded seven hundred and thirty cases with forty-six cases in the Peten region. In the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, twenty-three persons died due to COVID-19 within twenty-four hours. Mexico has recorded close to one thousand positive cases and one hundred and forty-four deaths. Doctor Marvin Manzanero says that officials here are monitoring the situations in bordering countries.

Channel 5

COVID-19 update from the Office of the Director of Health Services
This is our update for today.
Our expanded screening has started as we have moved away from tracing contacts.
Our work continues!
Continue to practice physical distancing, wash your hands and avoid touching your face.

Is 28 Days With No Positive Tests Possible?

There are no new cases of COVID 19 tonight, the 25th day without a positive test. And, the Ministry of Health reports that it has started expanding its screening. The latest figurers show that 31 tests were done yesterday, and all of them came back negative.

This includes persons who were randomly tested as part of expanded screening. The Ministry said this would focus on front-line personnel including customs and immigration.

The Ministry says it has new moved away from testing contacts since those lists have been exhausted. Thew latest data says there are currently 33 persons under investigation.

And if a few tests also come back negative tomorrow, we would be at day 26 without a positive sample for COVID 19 being taken.

28 days is an important benchmark, because according to public health professionals it would mean the end of an outbreak.  

But, what really does this signal, and what does it mean for all of us, living under curfew, or some type of quarantine?  

Yesterday, the director of health Services told Jules Vasquez it definitely does not mean that it's time to relax because there are new cases coming over the event horizon:

Dr. Marvin Manzanero - Director of Health Services
"I think one of the primary messages Jules beyond not having any other case would be hoping that we have learned something as a society, as a health system, as a government if you will because this should have allowed us ample time to have prepared adequately because you are right this might be one outbreak, a wave. This might be the first one of what we anticipate might be more cases for sure this year. We are not living in a bubble. We can anticipate that we are gonna have further waves throughout 2020."

Jules Vasquez
"Now we know that St. Lucia had reported, had reached a 0 case situation and then probably 5 days or a week later it reported the appearance of two cases which were related to other cases. Do you have any such fears in this case especially considering the fact that we are right now so far away from the last positive test, which was 25 days ago?"

Dr. Marvin Manzanero
"It can still happen that wouldn't surprise us. What would surprise me would be if we find a case that isn't linked to those other identified cases because then you'd really have to go back to the drawing board and do an entire mapping exercise. If you are able to link any potential case to those ones then, well you can establish a link understanding that people can be virus shredders for a period because you can have people that can still be shedding a virus after 21 days, 38 days, 37 days in some literature reviews so that will be a surprise if we identify community transmission that had previously not been identified.

Channel 7

COVID-19 UPDATE

This is our data up until today.

The 37 new samples processed today are not linked to any confirmed case and are not as a result of any mapping exercise, but rather as a result of random samples from across the country.
All were negative.

Our numbers can only remain like this if we continue to practice consistent prevention measures.

We are also monitoring very closely the cases in neighbouring Mexico and Guatemala as they are both to show increasing numbers.

Stay safe all.

This was how Belize looks compared to the status of other countries in Mesoamerica up to Saturday evening.



Active Cases in Belize

Our graph of active cases.

This is relevant as we approach our 28 day period without an active case.