Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 22, 2010

...Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning issued for
northeastern Honduras....


summary of 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...15.8n 81.1w
about 150 mi...240 km ENE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on nic/Hon border
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...W or 265 degrees at 3 mph...6 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

Tracks remain about the same, slightly more to the south

Track & projected times:

[Linked Image]

despite satellite imagery that suggests that Richard is better
organized...data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
indicate that the storm has not strengthened. Maximum flight
levels winds were about 40 kt...with believable SFMR values near 35
kt...and a central pressure of 1006-1007 mb. In addition...the
flight level winds suggest the system has become elongated from
north to south...and perhaps the center is trying to reform farther
south. The initial winds will stay 35 kt for this advisory.
It does appear as though the environment is becoming more conducive
to strengthening. Vertical wind shear is rather light and drier
air to the northwest is gradually modifying and is farther from the
center than yesterday. Most of the intensity models respond to
this by intensifying Richard into a hurricane. The official
forecast will stay closer an average of the statistical guidance...
though the category two solution of the GFDL/HWRF is not
unrealistic. Although it is not explicitly forecast
below...Richard is expected to strengthen between the 48-hr and
72-hr forecasts up to landfall. After that...shear is expected to
be rather strong over the Gulf of Mexico...making restrengthening
unlikely.

A westward motion has seemingly begun with Richard as ridging is
beginning to build over the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is expected
to strengthen some during the next couple of days...which should
steer the storm to the west and west-northwest at an increasing
forward speed. Model guidance has come into better agreement on
this pattern...though there are some differences by the end of the
period. The NHC forecast is shifted southward a little bit to
account for current models trends.