AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Where will Wilma go?

Just a quick update on the latest model runs: The 18Z (2 pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models have swung back towards Florida, and predict that the Yucatan may only get a quick (but severe) blow. The amount of weakening that might happen with Wilma over the Yucatan for just 12 hours or so is difficult to gauge. Also, there is the possibility of a threat to New England--the latest GFDL model run has Wilma hitting the Cape Cod area as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night. I'll wait for the 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of the models that will be available in the morning before commenting more. The degree of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast of Wilma remains very high.

Jeff Masters

Posted By: SteveGregory at 3:47 AM GMT on October 19, 2005


Once I confirmed that there was much a do about nothing with this 'radical track change' talked about earlier by others -- I
had to conduct some other business and just skipped the 8PM update. I'll be issuing a new, full update during by midnight
{Chicago time). The next RECON just took off about 30 minutes ago m- and I'll stay up for the first Vortex reading -- and
that's about it.

Bottom line -- the track is pretty much back where it was - not going inland into the Yucatan and thrashing around for 2
days. The only basic thing that has changed, but we saw that in the 12Z run this morning, was a generally slower speed
during the first 72 hours. So landfall in Florida is delayed by up to 24 hours or so. But it is still 4 days away.

Likely to be a low end Cat 3 Major hurricane. The NHC Track they just issued is exactly what I would of issued.

Be back with a full update around 11:45PM

Wilma eye is -- now -- 18.1 North 84.35 West
San Pedro: -- 17.9167 -- Long -87.9500

so just now passed to above us.

I seriously doubt Wilma all of a sudden go straight west to strike Belize, and by morning it will probably be well north of us. and no cold front it appears, to push it back down.

So...it `s already passed??
Eli

she's past us by in a latitudinal sense! (gone a bit north)

That looks great, doesnt it? Thanks a lot Marty!!
We keep in touch.
Eli

midnite....

WTNT34 KNHC 200835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...FOR NOW....

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

00
AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT
20/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 900 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS
THREAT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 120
NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N81W-
20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO 19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST
OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS FOLLOWING A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
25W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION WHERE STRONG E LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES WITH WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-57W WITH A SMALL AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N55W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY UPPER OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N24W 6N41W 9N52W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-41W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WHICH IS DECEIVINGLY
COVERING UP THE APPROACHING HURRICANE THAT LOOMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO HURRICANE WILMA IN
THE SE AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE W GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUES
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT OVER
THE SE GULF WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM WILMA ARE SPREADING S OF
27N E OF 90W. AS SUCH...THE WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER MOST RAINBANDS OF
WILMA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SPREADING NE AS
WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE GULF. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A NICE
DRY WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON WILMA. THE BROAD OUTFLOW
CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NE INTO THE W
ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES EXCEPT OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ARE GETTING A BRIEF BREAK AS WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32N72W TO 27N77W WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 50 KT EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA
NEAR 25N84W E TO 27N71W THEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 90 KT NE
TO BEYOND 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE JET FROM
A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N62W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350/400 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 59W FROM 10N-20N AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SUBTROPICS NEAR 28N40W AND IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WITH A 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE WEAK LOW
THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W AND STILL LACKS ANY SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 21N16W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES NW TO 23N48W. WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N16W 11N38W TO 23N54W.

$$
WALLACE

WTNT34 KNHC 201151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN
FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 910 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN