Hurricanes Hardly Happened Last Year - But What About
"We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2007." says Dr . Gray the well known Colorado forecaster. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/dec2006/
The forecast predicts 14 named storms, 7 of them hurricanes, and 3 of those hurricanes will be 'intense', with 8 intense hurricane days.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, says "based on past, current and projected climate signals, tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007. This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since TSR forecasts began in 1984."caribbean hurricanes
Two predictors are the forecast July-September 2007 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2007 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region.
One of the other important questions for the upcoming hurricane season is whether El Nino conditions will continue through the 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Forecasts are that by summer it will die away and therefore not inhibit the spawning of hurricanes.
There were four hurricane seasons since 1949 with similar characteristics to October-November 2006, these were 1952, 1958, 1966, and 2003 all active years.
Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s seven tropical cyclone basins.
source : http://www.caribpro.com/Caribbean_Property_Magazine/index.php?pageid=83