AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Here comes Dean

17.6N latitude currently. same as Belize City, says Reef Radio. more talk about westing, less talk about northing

on reef radio, they say they strongly suggest at first light tomorrow folks start moving. san pedro emergency center at the town council, open 24-7 til we go GREEN again, phone is 226 3695

reef radio off at midnite tonite and on at 5am tomorrow

Whatever. We're gonna get whacked.

no decision has been taken on a curfew. the emergency committee is trying to clarify that soon. 20 hours til the beginning of the effects of the storm. hard rain, clouds, waves. thats late afternoon on Monday

Adrenalin pumping, indeed. Its the next most exciting thing to the national past time which is chismiar (gossiping) :-)

Cheers,
Wendy

always good info from the wunderground.com site:

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
the eye of Dean has been passing just south of Jamaica since about
1900 UTC and has just crossed the longitude of negril on the
western end of the island. The center came within about 20 N mi of
Portland Point on the south-central coast...close enough to bring
hurricane-force winds to Kingston. While passing by Jamaica...
satellite imagery suggested the eye diameter was gradually
shrinking. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived in the
eye of Dean at 0130 UTC and revealed that the pressure had fallen
to near 925 mb...and that Dean now has a single eyewall at a
diameter of about 15 N mi. Maximum surface winds from the SFMR
have been 121 kt...and flight-level winds have been as high as 143
kt...both of which support maintaining the advisory intensity at
125 kt.
Dean is heading toward 280 degrees at about 17 kt with steering
provided by a strengthening mid-level ridge over the southeastern
United States. The models all agree that the ridge will get even
stronger and move a little westward with Dean...meaning that Dean
will probably move in a rather straight line until final landfall
in Mexico. Overall the models have again edged a little
southward...and so has the official forecast. The NOAA
Gulfstream-IV jet conducted a synoptic surveillance mission this
evening to provide data for the 0000 UTC model cycle. The jet will
continue to fly missions every 12 hours to collect data through the
12z model cycle Tuesday morning.
All of the objective guidance calls for strengthening in the
northwestern Caribbean where the shear will remain weak and the
ocean heat content very high. The official forecast follows suit
and indicates that Dean could reach category five status during the
next day or so. The hurricane will weaken while over Yucatan in
proportion to just how long it spends over land. The opportunity
for restrengthening over the southwestern Gulf likewise depends on
the exact track...and that window has been shortening with the
southward shifts in track. Although not explicitly indicated in
the new official forecast...it is still possible that Dean could
restrengthen and again reach major hurricane status prior to final
landfall along the coast of Mainland Mexico.

Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 17.6n 78.8w 125 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 18.0n 81.4w 130 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 18.5n 84.9w 140 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 19.2n 88.4w 105 kt...inland
48hr VT 22/0000z 19.8n 91.9w 80 kt
72hr VT 23/0000z 21.0n 99.0w 55 kt...inland
96hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Knabb

I agree!

Bottom line. Period. End of story.

We care, and we all wish we could do more.

if you are waiting for "someone" to help you, (govt) or bail you out... shame on you!

You have been warned!

17.6 is the latitude of Caye Caulker, not Belize City. Caye Caulker is 21 miles north of Belize City (mas o menos).

Thanks and cheers,
Wendy

can't believe everything i hear on the radio i guess! didn't check my charts...

8am meeting of the emergency committee tomorrow, 9am reef radio update will cover the meeting

Locations Latitude Longitude
Ambergris Cay 18.00N 88.00W
Belize City 17.25N 88.00E
Belmopan 17.18N 88.30W
Benque Viejo 17.05N 89.08W
Caye Caulker 17.45N 88.30W
Corozal 18.23N 88.23W
Dangriga 16.96N 88.21W
Hondo 18.25N 88.21W
Maya Mts 16.30N 89.00W
Midlesex 17.02N 88.31W
Monkey River 16.22N 88.29W
Orange Walk 18.06N 88.33W
Punta Gorda 16.10N 88.45W
San Antonio 16.15N 89.2W
Turneffe Is. 17.20N 87.50W