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Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, June 10, 2010 555 am EDT/455 am CDT

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Discussion

Development In The Western Caribbean Late This Weekend/Early Next Week??: A tropical wave tracked across the Lesser Antilles yesterday and brought rain and gusty winds to these islands. In fact, the island of Barbados had sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

As of this morning, strong shear across the eastern Atlantic has squashed convection and development is not expected for at least the next 2 to 3 days. After that, by late this weekend into early next week, this tropical wave will have to be watched closely once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and the model guidance has been on and off regarding the development of a low pressure system forming in the southwest Caribbean and interacting with this tropical wave; this interaction may lead to tropical cyclone development by early next week. Right now, it is something that needs to be watched for closely and I will keep you all updated. It should be noted that if a tropical system does form in the southwestern Caribbean, it would likely track west-northwestward into central America and the chances of it getting into the Gulf of Mexico are extremely low.

Issued: Friday, June 11, 2010 615 am EDT/515 am CDT

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Discussion

Western Caribbean: I will be monitoring a tropical wave that will track across the central Caribbean today, reaching the western Caribbean on Saturday. Over the weekend, environmental conditions across the western Caribbean will become steadily more favorable for development and this tropical wave will need to be monitored for tropical development in the southwest Caribbean this weekend into next week. Eventually, this tropical wave will be pushed into central America as we head towards the middle of next week and interaction with land will prevent development. Overall, I think there is a low chance for development in the southwest Caribbean, however, given the build of heat and moisture in the western Caribbean, it is something that needs to be watched very closely. Finally, if something does happen to develop in the southwestern Caribbean, it will track into central America and it will not track into the Gulf of Mexico.