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Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390684
10/23/10 08:52 AM
10/23/10 08:52 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather: Tropical Storm Richard:

Richard continues to have a difficult time get its act together due to the combination of dry and higher shear just to the north. The low-level center seems to be disjointed from the mid-level center and this is why you are not seeing a rapid ramp up that had been forecast. Richard is forecast to track to the west or west-northwest and may actually track along the northern coast of Honduras. In fact, it is entirely possible for Richard to move completely inland over Honduras before it reaches Belize. All of the track model guidance have shifted to the south and a majority of the model guidance forecasts that Richard will dissipate before it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico. So, a track near or even over the northern coast of Honduras now seems likely today through tonight with a track into southern Belize becoming more likely by Sunday night.

As I have already mentioned, shear and dry air have been causing Richard to not strengthen at all. Even though the global models forecast more favorable environmental conditions over the next day or two, possible land interaction with Honduras may put a cap on this and it is not out of the question that Richard may not make it to hurricane strength, although all interests in Belize should prepare for hurricane conditions anyways, just in case this ramps up just before landfall and remains offshore of Honduras.

See //ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/378224/ for more

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390703
10/23/10 10:21 AM
10/23/10 10:21 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
and this from Diane too....

HI Neighbors -

The storm is intensifying. It went from 45 MPH to 65 MPH in under 3 hours.

Latest word is that NHC and Belize Met Service expect Richard to be a Cat 1 hurricane when it makes landfall tomorrow along the coast of Belize.

GoB has raised the threat level from TS Watch to TS Warning.

LOVE FM is broadcasting regular updates now.

Advice from all local agencies is that you should be completing your storm preparations at this time.

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390704
10/23/10 10:25 AM
10/23/10 10:25 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 11...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS
COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.


AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING
QUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH
FLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
APPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE
UNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A
HURRICANE..
.THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN
INTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT
DAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.

NAVY TRACK

[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Cayemen] #390708
10/23/10 11:20 AM
10/23/10 11:20 AM
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 21
Belize City, Belize
joey-jo Offline
.
joey-jo  Offline
Originally Posted by Cayemen
Great Timing as usual, for Richard to go to Belize.

Because Channel 5 and Channel 7 don't produce any TV News on Saturday and Sunday till Monday evening, even the weather expert from hydromet.gov.bz can take a vacation.


Unbelievable, if there was no Internet and no LoveFM Radio, we would have no information the whole weekend till Monday night after the proposed landfall.

And the majority of the Belizean sitting every night on there TV... crazy not knowing what going on.


Remember that the Love FM family (Love FM, Estereo Amor, More FM, & Belize Travel Radio) also has a Cable TV station, Love Television, that reaches most of the nation. During storms they broadcast live providing updates, including photos & videos of affected areas (when possible) taken by their crew or viewers. I'm not sure if the channel is yet available in Ambergris Caye.


"Don't be afraid to go out on a limb... that's where the fruit is!"
Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390713
10/23/10 01:03 PM
10/23/10 01:03 PM
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 65
James Pearce Offline
.
James Pearce  Offline
The 2pm advisory has a hurricane warning for Belize

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390714
10/23/10 01:29 PM
10/23/10 01:29 PM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 592
San Pedro/Prescott
G
GwenA Offline
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GwenA  Offline
G
Yep, just saw it. Time to put up the shutters!

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390715
10/23/10 01:30 PM
10/23/10 01:30 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
The main concern at this point is about flooding. NEMO San Pedro is advising people who live in San Mateo, DFC and other swampy areas to move to "higher ground" today.

As for people who want to go to the mainland, they should get moving now - the last boat to mainland Belize will probably be at 7 am tomorrow.

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390716
10/23/10 02:25 PM
10/23/10 02:25 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,070
San Pedro Town
B
belizeonthebeach Offline
.
belizeonthebeach  Offline
B
We have full moon high tides now also--expect a big sea

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390719
10/23/10 03:10 PM
10/23/10 03:10 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

Richard intensifies;

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:14 PM GMT on October 23, 2010
Tropical Storm Richard suddenly overcame its struggles with dry air and wind shear this morning, took advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm water temperatures of 29C, and intensified into a strong tropical storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft departed Richard late this morning, and found that the storm had managed to develop respectable surface winds of 65 mph. However, they reported no sign of an eyewall forming, and additional intensification will be limited until Richard can develop an eyewall. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds expanding and covering the center of circulation, a telltale sign of an intensifying tropical storm. Low-level spiral bands are becoming more prominent, and upper-level outflow is improving on all sides except the west. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air is still causing some trouble for the storm. The next hurricane hunter aircraft is due in the storm near 8pm EDT tonight.


Figure 1. Forecast radius of tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph (dark green colors), winds of 58+ mph (light green colors) and hurricane force winds of 74+ mph (yellow colors) as predicted by NHC at 11am EDT 10/23/10. Hurricane force winds are predicted to affect just a small region to the northeast of Richard's center, beginning Sunday morning.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 2am EDT (6Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. Richard will continue to move just north of west today, in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard very close to Guanaja and Roatan Islands off the northern coast of Honduras near 8am EDT Sunday. Residents of those islands can expect tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to arrive at the islands between 8 pm - midnight EDT tonight. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. The coast of Belize can expect tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to arrive Sunday afternoon, between noon - 4pm EDT. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 89%. Belize City is next highest, at 69%. Richard will pass very close to the coast of northern Honduras today, which may limit intensification some. Dry air to the west may also be a problem for the storm, and it is unlikely that Richard will grow stronger than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. NHC is currently giving Richard a 4% chance of intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane before making landfall in Belize on Sunday. The models predict that Richard will dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. If the storm does make it to the Gulf of Mexico, Richard will probably dissipate by Tuesday or Wednesday, due to high wind shear, and the storm is not a threat to the U.S.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering 30 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to rise over the few days, discouraging further development. NHC is giving 90L a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Re: Tropical Storm Richard [Re: Marty] #390720
10/23/10 03:19 PM
10/23/10 03:19 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,807
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Richard Soaks Honduran Coast

Tropical Storm Richard strengthens off Honduras' Caribbean coast, steams toward Belize

ABC News - ‎33 minutes ago

Tropical Storm Richard gained strength Saturday, lashing the Caribbean coast of Honduras with strong winds and heavy rain that threatened potentially deadly flash floods and landslides as it headed to landfall in Belize.

By Saturday afternoon the storm was passing just off Honduras, where a hurricane warning was in effect. Rain was falling on the eastern province of Gracias a Dios, where floods have been severe in the past.

Lisandro Rosales, head of Honduras' Permanent Emergency Commission, said civil defense offices along the coast were preparing to carry out evacuations if needed.

In Belize, the government of the small Central American nation issued a hurricane warning for its entire coast, while Mexico issued a tropical storm warning for its southern Caribbean coast.

Richard's maximum sustained winds strengthened to 65 mph (100 kph) and were forecast to reach hurricane strength by early Sunday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It was expected to come ashore in Belize with winds of about 80 mph (130 kph) late Sunday.

The storm was centered about 80 miles (130 kilometers) north-northwest of Honduras' easternmost coastal point and moving west at about 8 mph (13 kph) on a path that would take it near the Honduran island of Roatan, which is popular with tourists and divers.

"Richard is traveling slowly parallel to Honduras' Atlantic coast and causing rains since Friday night on the Caribbean seaboard," said Daniel Posas of Honduras' National Meteorological Service.

"Bands from Richard are already provoking strong winds in Gracias a Dios province that will increase over the course of the day."

Emergency officials declared a three-day state of alert in seven provinces in northern and eastern Honduras.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Tropical Storm Richard Gains Strength, Nears Belize, Southeastern Mexico

By Dan Hart - Bloomberg - ‎3 hours ago‎

Tropical Storm Richard gained strength and may become a hurricane tomorrow as it approaches the coast of Belize and southeastern Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.

The storm, with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles (104 kilometers) per hour, was about 65 miles north-northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua, near the Honduran border, the Miami- based center said in its advisory at 11 a.m. New York time.

Richard is moving west at about 8 mph. The Honduran government has issued a hurricane warning for the coast from Limon west to Puerto Cortes and the Bay Islands, the U.S. agency said.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Richard to become hurricane, dumps rain on Honduras

Reuters - ‎16 minutes ago‎

* Honduras prepares shelters for up to 50,000 people

* Remnants could reach oil platforms in Gulf of Mexico

* Central American coffee, sugar producers at risk (Adds quotes from Honduran official, Mexican oil firm)

By Gustavo Palencia

TEGUCIGALPA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Richard strengthened on Saturday as it dumped rain on Honduras and was seen reaching hurricane strength before hitting Belize and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula later in the weekend.

The storm was about 80 miles (130 km) north of Cabo Gracias a Dios, a remote area known as the "mosquito coast" of Honduras and Nicaragua where indigenous groups live in wooden houses along rivers vulnerable to flooding.

Richard had top sustained winds of 65 miles per hour (100 kph) and would likely barrel through southern Mexico and emerge in Mexico's oil-rich Bay of Campeche on Tuesday as a tropical depression, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Richard, the 17th named storm in the Atlantic this year, might eventually veer north toward U.S. oil and natural gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, according to forecasts by some computer weather models.

Some residents and tourists were fleeing the mosquito coast area in Honduras as winds picked up. A Honduran official said the government prepared shelters to handle up to 50,000 people in case a general evacuation order was given.

"We are coordinating with the towns on the mosquito coast and other areas on the Atlantic to try to prevent deaths, and to get food, clothing and first-aid to people in shelters," said Lizandro Rosales, head of Honduras' emergency services committee.

Richard was moving westward at 8 mph (13 kph) and could pass near the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday night before striking Belize and southeastern Mexico late on Sunday, the Miami-based hurricane center said. Honduras and Belize issued hurricane warnings.

"Richard is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday," the hurricane center said.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Cuba Has TS Richard Near Honduras

By Circles Robinson

HAVANA TIMES - ‎3 hours ago‎

Tropical Storm Richard is now blowing at 100 kph (62 mph) as it moves along the northeastern coastline of Honduras, reports the Cuban Meteorological Institute (INSMET) at noon on Saturday EST.

Richard, which could become a hurricane by early Sunday, is expected to continue along the Honduran coastline before a full landing in Belize on Monday morning.

Both the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami and the Havana-based INSMET inform that the weather system poses no threat to Cuba.

The NHC says a tropical storm warning is in place for northeastern Honduras and a hurricane warning for the central and western coast of the Central American nation.

Belize and the Mexican Yucanan are both currently under a tropical storm warning.

At 12:00 noon EST, TS Richard was located above far eastern Honduras and 110 kilometers north-northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaraguan border and moving west at a speed of 13 kph (8 mph).

The next INSMET advisory is due at 6:00 p.m. EST.


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