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Invest 97-L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands Has The Potential To Develop In The Western Caribbean Late This Week

Crown Weather:

A fast moving tropical disturbance (Invest 97-L) is expected to pass across Barbados and the Windward Islands this afternoon into this evening bringing squally weather. Satellite imagery today indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized. At this point, the wave axis with Invest 97-L is outrunning any robust thunderstorm activity and thus development is not expected for the time being due to this disturbance's fast forward speed.

By about Wednesday or so, the forward speed of Invest 97-L is expected to slow down and that the environmental conditions will become more favorable for development. Because of this, I think that by about Wednesday and Thursday we may see Invest 97-L begin to develop as it nears about 75 West Longitude in the central Caribbean. Development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm is quite possible once Invest 97-L pushes into the western Caribbean (near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands) towards Friday.

Taking A Look At Model Guidance - The GFS model seems to be starting to get a clue about correctly showing tropical development in the western Caribbean later this week. The latest GFS model run now shows some development of Invest 97-L in the northwestern Caribbean by about Saturday with a track across the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Beyond this, the GFS model shows minimal intensification and forecasts Invest 97-L to track from east-southeast to west-northwest from the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday to the lower Texas coast next Tuesday.

The Canadian model also waits to develop Invest 97-L until it is in the western Caribbean late this week. It then forecasts Invest 97-L to turn northwestward and move through the Yucatan Channel on Saturday and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ultimately, the Canadian model forecasts Invest 97-L to make landfall as a hurricane on the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday night.

Interestingly, the European operational model still doesn't really show a whole lot in the way of development with Invest 97-L.

I think that slow or no development of Invest 97-L is likely for the next 2 to 3 days as it tracks across Barbados and the Windward Islands this afternoon and this evening and into the eastern Caribbean during Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday and Friday, the development chances of Invest 97-L will likely increase as the wind shear values will decrease and there will be increasing amounts of moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 60 to 70 percent chance for tropical development by Thursday into Friday in the western Caribbean in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

Turning to this weekend and beyond, I do think that Invest 97-L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.

If Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower Texas coast early next week.

On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and western Florida early next week.

Invest 97L

A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph and is expected to continue moving quickly westward during the next couple of days. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in some areas should continue and is likely to spread over and or around more islands later tonight into tomorrow and this should continue through tomorrow. Gusty winds are also possible over some #Leewardislands southward to just north of St Vincent while the low-pressure area moves across St. Vincent and The Grenadines and over the Caribbean Sea tonight into tomorrow.

Although this system is over 1800 miles from our shores and poses no immediate threat to the country, the National Meteorological Service of Belize will continue to monitor its progress very closely.





For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Still too early to tell what 97L may or may not have in store for us or the Yucatan. For today's analysis of the state of affairs and models, Levi is always worth a listen. Stay vigilant islanders.


Watching Two Potential Storms This Week

From Crown Weather:

Invest 97-L Still Has The Potential To Develop In The Western Caribbean Later This Week

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be slowly becoming better organized today in the eastern Caribbean. Satellite imagery indicates that the thunderstorm activity has increased again over the past few hours. With that said, the environment isn't very favorable right now for development due to wind shear conditions. Also, Invest 97-L is still moving at a fast forward speed, which is preventing development for now.

I still think that the combination of decreasing wind shear values and this system slowing down in forward speed will lead to an increasing chance for development by about Thursday and Friday once Invest 97-L reaches the western Caribbean. This means that I think that there is a decent chance that Invest 97-L will develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm in the western and northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday.

Taking A Look At Model Guidance - There is a lot of differences between the model guidance members on what may or may not happen with Invest 97-L. In addition, even the individual models themselves are flip flopping on their solutions with this disturbances. When the model guidance members are acting like this, it is best to use the ensemble guidance as they can weed out the noise.

The GFS ensemble model guidance shows a significant increase of its members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean by Friday night and Saturday morning. From there, the ensemble members split with the members showing a stronger storm forecasting a track north and north-northeastward towards the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline by Monday. The members that are showing a weaker storm show a system that tracks westward towards eastern Mexico and the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday.

The Canadian ensemble model guidance also seems to suggest development should occur in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday. The ensemble members then spread out once in the Gulf of Mexico with solutions ranging from a track towards the Texas coast by about Tuesday all the way to a storm that tracks northeastward across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday and then up the East Coast of the United States on Sunday and Monday.

About 70 to 75 percent of the European ensemble model members forecast development in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model is similar to the Canadian ensemble model in that its solutions range everything from a track to the Texas coast to a track towards the northern and northeastern US Gulf Coast.

These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L is high.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that slow development is likely over the next couple of days or so as Invest 97-L tracks across the eastern and central Caribbean.

I think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see the development chances of Invest 97-L increase as the wind shear values will decrease and there will be increasing amounts of moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 80 percent chance for tropical development by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean.

Turning to this weekend and beyond, I do think that Invest 97-L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.

On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.

Bottom Line Is That even though Invest 97-L isn't doing a whole lot right now, we need to watch it very closely as it could be one of those "sleeper" systems that remain disorganized and stay undeveloped in the Caribbean and then all of a sudden develop and strengthen very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.





For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Invest 97L

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in these thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west- northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance of formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 5 days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

NEMO Belize Rural South and the EOC continue to closely monitor the wave named 97L that the National Hurricane Center shows headed our way.

Indications are that this system may develop into a depression or a tropical storm. At this time, we do not anticipate any need for evacuation from the island for safety.
We remind you to stay calm and remain vigilant.

You can expect additional updates here, but for now no further action is warranted.

On approach of any significant storm you will be advised and we will encourage voluntary evacuation to the Belmopan shelter or to your mainland family.

For those that remain behind and must go into shelter here, NEMO will open additional classrooms as well as using our backup hotel shelters so we are able to separate people by household to maintain social distancing.

Masks will be required for anyone being evacuated or seeking shelter here or on the mainland for any storm for the remainder of the season.

Hardware stores are available for delivery in the event of an approaching storm.





Watching 97L and 98L for Development During Next Few Days



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Invest 97-L Likely Will Develop In The Northwestern Caribbean Late This Week

From Crown Weather:

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be gradually becoming better organized today. Satellite imagery not only shows some deeper thunderstorm activity occurring, but also some hints of banding in the cloud pattern. In addition, radar imagery from Curacao reveals that any circulation Invest 97-L seems to be trying to tighten up as it pushes off of the northern coast of South America and towards the western Caribbean. This means that I think that Invest 97-L is very close to becoming a tropical depression & probably will be upgraded to one within the next day or two as it heads for the western and northwestern Caribbean.

Taking A Look At Model Guidance - It seems as if it's the global European and GFS model against all of the other models when it comes to forecasting of this disturbance. This is very frustrating because it makes me question my own analysis and makes me wonder if I'm missing something that these two models are seeing. At this point, I'm not putting much stock into these two models and their seemingly lack of development of Invest 97-L.

So, once again I'm going to use the ensemble guidance in my forecast of Invest 97-L to weed out the noise.

The GFS ensemble model guidance still shows a strong signal for tropical development from Invest 97-L by Friday night in the northwestern Caribbean. From there, the ensemble guidance members spread out with some members forecasting a north and northeastward track towards coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early next week. Other ensemble members show a track west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico and coastal Texas early next week.

The Canadian ensemble model guidance also strongly suggests Invest 97-L should develop into a tropical system by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean. The ensemble members then spread out with some of the members showing a track towards the Florida Panhandle by late this weekend. Other members show a track towards the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast by about Tuesday.

These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L continues to be high.

The track model guidance seems strange to me too as the consensus guidance "loses" Invest 97-L in the western Caribbean at the end of this week.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though Invest 97-L is undergoing increased organization and development, I think that the process to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm will still be slow to occur.

I still think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see Invest 97-L develop into a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean.

Turning to this weekend and beyond, while I do think that Invest 97-L is likely to track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it's track is still highly uncertain & depends on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.

As I have mentioned previously, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower/middle Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.

On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane in either the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.



For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

There is no tropical storm, as yet, that " X " simply means that INVEST 97 could develop into a cyclone or depression, but we must watch it closely, over the next few days.

Update on the tropical wave Invest 97L for San Pedro and Caye Caulker

NEMO on the island says that in the case of storm threat, shelters will be made available, and if necessary, people will be assisted with evacuation.

The latest satellite imagery are showing that showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated with the tropical wave which is now over the Central Caribbean Sea, south of Haiti. The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) gives this system an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression when it reaches the north western Caribbean Sea. If development is to occur it will likely occur before Saturday when the system is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula. The Met Service analysis of the latest model runs from two models (GFS and NAM) show the system interacting with the landmasses of Honduras/Nicaragua late Thursday night into Friday which may limit significant development. If this occurs the system could emerge into the Gulf of Honduras a weak and disorganized system. If this happens then the major threat from this system will be heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding starting on Friday and lasting through much of the weekend. The worst case scenario could be that the system tracks a little further north and avoids the landmass of Honduras/Nicaragua that would allow for a bit more strengthening into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The stronger this system becomes, the more likely it will track north of Belize as there is a deep upper level trough to the west of the area that would pull any deeper/stronger system more northward.

The Met Service and NEMO will continue to monitor this system closely for any change in direction and development.

Stay calm and vigilant. Review your family safety plans for flooding in low lying areas for this weather event.



NEMO Belize Rural South

From Crown Weather:

Tropical Depression #14 Has Formed Over The Central Caribbean

I am watching a developing tropical depression in the central Caribbean (TD #14) which is getting better organized.

It is expected that the depression will head for the Yucatan Peninsula with tropical storm conditions possible for areas including Chetumal, Cancun and Cozumel on Saturday and Saturday night.

By Sunday into Monday, this system is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico where it may be impacted in some way by the tropical storm/hurricane near South Florida. I think that since TD #13 will probably be stronger than TD #14 that it will lead to a more unfavorable environment for TD #14 due to TD #13's outflow.

On the other hand, if Tropical Depression #13 ends up being much weaker near the Bahamas and Florida, it could lead to a much more favorable environment for Tropical Depression #14 to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I already mentioned, I think that Tropical Depression #14 is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 12 to 18 hours or so. It is then likely to pass over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Saturday night and emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Once it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, it is likely to begin interacting with Tropical Depression #13. This could lead to it tracking more towards the northwestern or western Gulf of Mexico, however, these two tropical system's interactions with each other are likely to be very difficult to forecast, so stay tuned.

As it stands right now, areas from Corpus Christi, Texas to New Orleans, Louisiana may receive at least tropical storm conditions right around Tuesday and Wednesday.

Finally, I'm hoping that now we have a tropical depression formally declared that we see more consistency & more accuracy in the forecast model data because so far the big models like the GFS and European model have not done well at all with this system either.







For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

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NEMO Tropical Weather Outlook:

- At 9:00 am Tropical Depression 14 was centered near latitude 15.1N, longitude 79.7W, or about 235 miles east of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. TD 14 was moving to the West at 21mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across Central America. The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor this system.

- At 9:00 am Tropical Depression 13 was centered near latitude 16.0N, longitude 52.0W, or about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. TD 13 was moving to the WNW at 21mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

The National Emergency Management Organization(NEMO) has just issued Advisory #1 on a potential tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea

THURSDAY, 20TH AUGUST, 2020 as at 10:00 a.m.

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby advises the general public that the tropical wave which is approaching has become better organized and is now accompanying broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.

The odds of development (as indicated by the national hurricane center) has increased to 90 percent indicating that this system is very likely to become a tropical depression later today or tonight. Movement continue to the west but most of the models show a turn to the WNW once the system reaches NE Honduras. This would suggest landfall on the Yucatan peninsula around Saturday evening. Regardless of development or whether a potential landfall occurs on the country, we need to be prepared for heavy rainfall and possible flooding. We need to continue to be on the alert and watch this system closely. The Met Service provide another update later after the new model runs and the report from the aircraft.

In accordance with your emergency plan the public is advised to remain vigilant and to be prepared for possible storm landfall over the weekend. IF the need arises for you to evacuate, move early, know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. COVID 19 Shelter Protocols and SI -119 of 2020 shall be adhered to. You must wear a mask, people showing symptoms will be contained in a separate section of the shelter building, hand washing /sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens and Managers will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis garbage properly disposed of. Note. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and cough /sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MoH) staff will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers/ Volunteers) MUST use PPE. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:

Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;

Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or
Mr. Leiva at 614 7177

Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614 4735;

San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;

Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or
Mr. Pollard at 6143244;

Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or
Mr. Eiley at 624 2365

Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 6148604 or
Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;

Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence),

Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632

Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for

Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or
Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393

NEMO HQ alerted its committees since Sunday 16th August and has been posting alert notices on our website. All district and city emergency committees met on Tuesday. Also we have been receiving and redistributing relief supplies and PPE sent by CDEMA. PPEs from the Ministry of Health will be collected and distributed today to compliment what we already have in our five warehouses across the country. NEMO remains in close communication with the national met service. We don't anticipate the need to evacuate San Pedro and the cayes if it becomes necessary the National Evacuation Committee, like all other national committees, are ready to put their plan into action. Note, we have conducted three very well coordinated evacuation of people from San Pedro during their first lockdown. NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO. We implore the public not to panic due to the existing suffering and hardship already brought on by COVID 19 are stressful enough.