Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 19, 2018
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
September 19, 2018
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.
USA National Weather Service Forecast
September 19, 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical
wave moving westward about 10 to 15 mph. Some slight development is
possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion
The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE at 19/0300 UTC is near
30.4N 27.9W. JOYCE is moving SSW, or 200 degrees, 07 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.
Rainshowers are possible from 27N to 32N between 26W and 34W. THIS
IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ABOUT JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 20N
southward, partially in Africa and partially in the ocean. The
accompanying precipitation is in Africa.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 19N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover
the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 20N between
57W and 63W.
A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 12N southward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to
12N between 40W and 51W.
...The Caribbean Sea...
A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from NW
Cuba to E sections of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to Cuba between 79W and
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in clusters are from 13N
southward from 77W westward, in broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W, to Panama near 09N80W,
and beyond NW Costa Rica. Maximo
A surface trough, that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
will continue moving westward overnight and exit the area on
Wednesday, accompanied by active weather. A tropical wave, that is
moving across the Lesser Antilles early tonight, will move into
the eastern Caribbean Sea later tonight, through the central
Caribbean Sea from Thursday into Friday, and pass to the west of
the area through late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure, that is
building from the central Atlantic Ocean into the central
Bahamas, will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building
seas across the entire basin from late Wednesday through Friday.
Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook
48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
What is left of Florence is moving east away from the US
September 19, 2018
Tropical Rainstorm Florence is located at 41.2° N, -62.1° W with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph, moving ENE 25 mph mph, pressure 29.71 in / 1006 mb.
Tropical Rainstorm Florence is moving east over the open waters of the northwestern Atlantic and is now positioned southeast of Nova Scotia. The storm will remain classified as a non-tropical storm system as it races eastward at 25-30 mph. The storm system will merge with a southward-moving cold front and the whole system will move eastward across the North Atlantic for the next few days. Eventually, the storm will intensify and become a very powerful wind and rainstorm as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. What once was a powerful hurricane will bring strong, perhaps damaging winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland and mostly the northern United Kingdom this weekend, mostly during Sunday.
Elsewhere in the basin, we do not anticipate any additional tropical development for at least the next three to five days.
120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Two Tropical Disturbances Between The Coast Of Africa & The Lesser Antilles Have A Chance Of Developing; Tropical Development Near Bermuda Is Possible This Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
September 19, 2018
Two Tropical Disturbances Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa: There are a couple of tropical disturbances between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles that need to be watched for potential tropical development in the coming days.
The first tropical disturbance is currently located about 1000 miles or so to the east of the Windward Islands. Satellite imagery indicates that there is some sort of circulation associated with this disturbed weather and for now it’s within a region of favorable environmental conditions. This means that some development is possible today through Thursday, however, it appears that this disturbance will be yanked to the northwest as we get into Friday and this weekend. Once this happens, this tropical disturbance will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions and any additional development would be highly unlikely.
At this point, the first tropical disturbance poses no threat to the Lesser Antilles.
There is a second tropical disturbance embedded within the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. This disturbance is currently located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands between 25 and 30 West Longitude and this system is likely to push westward over the next several days. The environmental conditions along the forecast path of this disturbance are favorable for development and we are going to have to keep an eye on it. There is the possibility that this second disturbance could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm before it reaches Barbados and the Windward Islands in about a week or so from now. This means that everyone in the Windward Islands and on the island of Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this second disturbance – It is not an immediate threat, however, it is something to keep an eye on. At this point, only the FV-3 GFS experimental model forecasts development before it reaches the Windward Islands while the other model guidance members keep this system a strong tropical disturbance.
This second tropical disturbance is one that requires close watching for the Caribbean. The reason why is this disturbance now located over the eastern Atlantic could be the trigger for tropical development in the western Caribbean around the first week of October.
As this tropical disturbance pushes into the Caribbean late next week and next weekend (September 28-30), it will encounter a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin around that time. This upward motion pulse will help to increase moisture and increase convection across the Caribbean and the tropical disturbance could provide the trigger to set off tropical development in the western Caribbean around the first week of October.
The long range GFS, FV3-GFS experimental and GFS ensemble model guidance continue to forecast some sort of tropical development to occur in the Caribbean at the very end of this month and the very beginning of October. The model members do vary on where tropical development may occur. The GFS model forecasts that the tropical development might occur in the central Caribbean on October 1. The GFS ensemble guidance shows a trend towards western Caribbean tropical development during the first week of October. The FV3-GFS experimental model forecasts a tropical storm in the northeast Caribbean next weekend that heads for the Bahamas during the first few days of October.
The European operational model forecasts no tropical development in the Caribbean for the next 10 days. The European ensemble guidance does have about a quarter of its members forecasting western Caribbean tropical development during the first week of October.
Bottom Line Is That the second tropical disturbance that is now located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has the potential to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm at some point in the Caribbean either at the very end of this month in the eastern Caribbean or in the western Caribbean during the first week of October.
Where this system tracks will depend heavily on where exactly it forms. If it develops in the eastern Caribbean, then a track towards the Bahamas and near the US East Coast could be in the cards. On the other, if this system waits to develop until the western Caribbean, then a track into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico would become more likely.
The potential for Caribbean tropical development at the end of this month and during the first week of October is something that I will be monitoring very closely and I will keep you all updated.
Tropical Development Possible Near Bermuda Next Week: I am keeping an eye on a frontal boundary that is pushing off of the US East Coast. In particular, there is the potential for some sort of sub-tropical or tropical system to spin up along the tail end of this front as it nears Bermuda on Thursday into Friday. In addition, there is the possibility that this system could loop back around to the west and head back towards the US Southeast Coast next week.
The GFS and European model has a scenario that consists of this system heading way out to near 50 West Longitude before it loops back and tries to head for Atlantic Canada late next week. Meanwhile, the UKMET model forecasts a quick loop back towards the US Southeast Coast early next week. Remember, the UKMET model was one of the first models to forecast that Florence would track quite far west in longitude – even though it was too far south with the overall track, it did show the possibility first.
Looking at the ensemble guidance, more of the ensemble members forecast a track to the east way past Bermuda. There are a couple of ensemble members that try to bring this system back towards the US Southeast Coast.
At this point, I think the part that we are most sure about is that a low pressure system will impact Bermuda on Thursday into Friday with heavy showers and gusty winds. There is the possibility that it may try to acquire tropical or sub-tropical characteristics this weekend. Beyond this, we will have to watch carefully to see if this system tries to turn back towards the west and head for the US Southeast Coast late this weekend into next week. Even if this system does loop back towards the US Southeast Coast, it will likely be quite weak in strength.
No Recent Relevant Caribbean Tropical Weather Posts
Jeff Masters, Category 6
September 16, 2018
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