(Hit "reload" or "refresh" page" from your browser's VIEW menu to be sure you are seeing the latest maps...)
Click the arrow down on the right side to remove the right column ads and settings, thus viewing the whole map. This map is currently not working in Mac Safari, click here for a Safari-friendly version. Works fine in other Mac browsers.
Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, June 22, 2017
At 6am, Tropical Storm Cindy was located near 30.5N, 93.7W, and was moving to the N at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
June 22, 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cindy, located just inland along the Texas/Louisiana border.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Discussion
Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur,
Texas within the last couple of hours. The center of Tropical
Storm Cindy at 22/0900 UTC is near 29.9N 93.6W, or about 25 NM WSW
of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Cindy is moving N at 10 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 35 KT with gusts to 45 KT. The
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are N of 27N W of 90W as well as N of 21N between 84W and
90W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa last night. Its
axis extends from 12N16W to 03N20W. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, is in moderate moist environment with
patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region
of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms from 07N to 13N E of 22W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N38W to 0N41W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a
mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air
according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of middle level
divergence. These factors support numerous to scattered heavy
showers and tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W.
A tropical wave is within 150 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis extends from 16N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust hinder convection at the time.
A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is
entering a region of unfavorable wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show
patches of dry air in the northern wave environment, which are
limiting the convection to scattered to isolated showers N of 13N.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 13N, mainly associated
with the EPAC monsoon trough.
...The Caribbean Sea...
An upper level low centered NE of Honduras and a ridge centered
over Puerto Rico generate divergent flow aloft ahead of a
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, thus supporting
showers and tstms between 73W and 80W. See the waves section for
further details. In the SW basin, the eastern North Pacific
monsoon trough continues to support scattered to numerous heavy
showers and tstms S of 14N W of 76W, including inland Central
America. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin associated
with the wave. Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Honduras
while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. A new tropical wave
will enter the E Caribbean later today. Scattered showers will be
associated with this wave, especially in the NE basin.
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Cindy now a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall at 4:30 EDT this morning close to Cameron, Louisiana. Later in the morning, it weakened to a tropical depression. However, heavy rain and gusty winds continue to batter southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches have already been reported near the path of Cindy in Texas and Louisiana. However, the effects span a much broader area.
The heaviest rain has actually been across Mississippi and Alabama where flash flooding is occurring Thursday afternoon. Between 2-4 inches of rain and locally more has fallen in the last 24 hours. These areas also stand a threat for isolated tornadoes through the rest Thursday afternoon. The tornado threat will reach as far east of the Florida Panhandle, and west through Louisiana.
Flooding rain continues to inundate Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and northwestern Georgia as the outer bands of Cindy and copious tropical moisture surge northward. Storm total rainfall amounts across southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, southern Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida will range from 4-8 inches for many, but isolated locations will receive upwards of 10 or more inches of rain for the duration of this system. This will lead to potentially life-threatening flooding for many, especially across the low-lying areas.
The threat for strong winds has diminished near the circulation center. There will be localized wind gusts to 30 mph or so through the rest of the day. However, thunderstorms east of the center can produce much stronger gusts.
Heavy rainfall will move into Arkansas and Tennessee heading into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches can be expected, along with some stronger thunderstorms across northern Mississippi and Tennessee. Any of these thunderstorms can produce 2- to 3-inch-per-hour rainfall rates, leading to potential flash flooding.
Elsewhere across the Tropical Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring a few tropical waves, but none are anticipated to develop at this time.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
No Tropical Development Is Expected Throughout The Rest Of The Atlantic Basin For At Least The Next Few Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 22, 2017
Across The Atlantic Basin – Even though tropical development is not expected through at least this weekend and probably beyond this across much of the Atlantic Basin, there are a few items that I am keeping an eye on.
A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa near 40 West Longitude is producing scattered deep thunderstorm activity. An analysis of the environmental conditions indicate that this tropical wave is located in an area of 10 knots or less of wind shear. Even though the wind shear environment is favorable for development, it appears that there is an area of dry air located to the west of this tropical wave and this is probably why none of the model guidance are forecasting tropical development. This particular tropical disturbance is forecast to track right across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday bringing squally weather with it.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, it looks like a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin for the rest of this month into at least early July. This means that the atmosphere will have a much harder time producing a tropical cyclone across the Atlantic. I don’t believe the GFS model’s forecast of a northwestward moving tropical cyclone that tracks near the Cape Verde Islands early next week and north of the Lesser Antilles around the 4th of July. The reason why is because there is very dry air north of 15 North Latitude and the wind shear conditions are very unfavorable and the GFS model forecast just doesn’t make sense.
Looking towards mid-July and beyond, the very long range CFS model guidance continues to hint at tropical development to the east of the Lesser Antilles during the week of July 10th. In addition to this, the GFS model guidance is now starting to hint at some sort of tropical development to possibly occur between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa around July 5th and 6th. While I think that the GFS model may be jumping the gun on forecasting tropical development too early in July, I do think the chances for tropical development will start to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa beginning around July 15th as a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin around that time.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Monday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.
A potential African wave to watch next week
Jeff Masters, Category 6
June 22, 2017
The GFS model is predicting the potential development of a new tropical depression early next week in the far Eastern Atlantic, from a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation--the European and UKMET models--are not yet on board with this forecast, and NHC is currently not mentioning any potential for new Atlantic tropical cyclone formation in the coming five days.
[Tuesday Evening] Cindy Bringing Flooding Threat to the North Gulf Coast; Bret Dissipating Over the SE Caribbean
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)