Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 16, 2019

(Click "refresh page" to be sure you are seeing the latest information...)



Click the arrow on the upper right side to remove the right column ads and settings, thus viewing the whole map.
Mac Safari has trouble with the above map from time to time, try viewing in Firefox if you can't see the map properly.




Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

November 16, 2019

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

November 16, 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands late this weekend or early next week. Some development is possible thereafter while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system later next week and further development is unlikely after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1005 mb low near 33N76W to the northern Bahamas near 27N78W to NW Cuba near 23N81W. Gale- force winds will develop west the front mainly N of 29N between 75W-80W by Saturday afternoon. These gale- force winds are expected to continue through Sunday morning with seas ranging 12-21 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Tropical Waves...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Showers along the northern portion of the wave are moving across the Leeward Islands.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A cold front continues to press southeastward across the NW Caribbean, extending from south-central Cuba near 22N82W to Belize near 17N88W. A pre-frontal trough also extends from central Cuba near 22N88W to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving ahead of the front from 16N-22N between 80W-88W. Convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico eastward through the Lesser Antilles. A strong mid- level ridge is present across the eastern portion of the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of Colombia.

The cold front will extend from central Cuba to Honduras later today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic basin remains inactive
Accuweather

November 16, 2019

The Atlantic basin remains free of any organized tropical features, and no tropical development is anticipated through at least Sunday.

A surface storm will form later today northeast of the northeastern coast of Florida and move to near the Carolina coast tonight and Saturday. This storm is expected to intensity into a non-tropical storm system during this weekend and slowly move northeast and away from the Southeast coast of the United States during the day Sunday. There is a small chance this storm might attempt to acquire some tropical characteristics Sunday and Monday. However, the system will remain within an environment of very strong vertical wind shear, and this should prevent this system from becoming a subtropical storm. If the shear were to drop off for a short period of time, this system might attempt to become a subtropical storm. Current computer forecast information does not show that happening at this point.

The interaction of a tropical wave and a weak upper-level disturbance is creating an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms should evolve into an area of low pressure Sunday or Monday as the whole system moves west. Latest computer forecasts show this low pressure area remaining weak with no signs of strong organization through early next week, so chances of this attempting to become an organized tropical feature remain very small.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

There are no current posts related to Belize or the Atlantic.
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
November 2, 2019



There are no current posts related to Belize or the Atlantic.
Jeff Masters, Category 6

November 2, 2019


CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)




Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 06:02 AM.