Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: September 19, 2020

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

September 19, 2020

At 3:00am, Tropical Storm Wilfred was centred near latitude 13.1N, longitude 36.9W or about 885mls W of the Cabo Verde Islands. Wilfred was moving to the WNW at 17mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Hurricane Teddy was centered near latitude 24.9N, longitude 58.2W or about 650 miles SE of Bermuda. Teddy was moving to the NW at 14mph with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. Tropical Storm Beta was centred near 26.0N and 92.5W or about 290 miles East of the the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Beta was moving to the North 8mph with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

September 19, 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Alpha, which became post-tropical over northern Portugal. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now located just south of the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or two and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.0N 92.5W at 19/0900 UTC or 250 nm E of mouth of The Rio Grande moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The hazards to the public and property will be: storm surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 24.9N 58.2W at 19/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 200 nm of the center in the S semicircle. TEDDY will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Large swells are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas. The large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern coast of the United States of America later today. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 13.1N 36.9W at 19/0900 UTC or 770 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Precipitation: Scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is 1008 mb located near 37N 31W...or just S of the western Azores this morning. The cyclone is forecast to move south for the next day or two then stall over the relatively warm waters several hundred miles S of the Azores. The cyclone could then obtain tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week will it remains nearly stationary. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical formation in the next 48 hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper level inverted trough is moving through the area that extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted in Cuba. Isolated moderate to strong convection covers areas from Honduras to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The comparatively strongest convective precipitation is occurring in parts of Belize and northern Guatemala, and in the western sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 14N63W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N67W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 14N southward from 73W westward.

Tropical Storm Wilfred near 13.1N 36.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Wilfred will move to 13.8N 39.0W this afternoon, 14.8N 41.7W Sun morning, 15.8N 44.4W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 16.5N 46.8W Mon morning. Tropical Depression Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low and move to 16.8N 48.6W Mon afternoon, then dissipate Tue morning. Long period northeasterly swell from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from the area in the Central Atlantic, will continue to impact tropical Atlantic waters through early next week.


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Many storms around the Atlantic Basin
Accuweather

September 19, 2020

Hurricane Category 3 Teddy is located at 25.2 N, -58.3 W with maximum sustained winds of 127 mph and gusts to 155 mph, moving NW at 16 mph, pressure 28.11 inHg.

Tropical Storm Beta will continue to track northward in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight. Beta will turn westward on Saturday. As the storm slowly tracks westward, there will be a chance for this to become a hurricane over the warm Gulf waters. It is likely to weaken some as it nears the Texas coastline next week. No matter what strength it is if or when it pushes onshore, rain and wind will be over much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Significant flooding is possible from the coast of Texas through Louisiana and even into Mississippi. The damage from both Laura, Marco and Sally could lead to additional damage to the same area. Interests along the entire Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of the storm.

Major Hurricane Teddy continues to track northwestward in the central Atlantic Ocean tonight and Saturday. Teddy is currently a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and is likely to remain a major hurricane through the weekend. Teddy is expected to track close to Bermuda on Sunday night and Monday. We are currently anticipating Teddy to bring 1-2 inches of rain to Bermuda. All residents and interests should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and be prepared for what could be a much stronger hurricane than what was experienced earlier this week with Paulette. Thereafter, Teddy may head toward Atlantic Canada, likely moving over Nova Scotia Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Over the next few days, Wilfred will steadily move west-northwestward across the central Atlantic. Some strengthening may occur through the next few days before Wilfred encounters increased shear, causing it to weaken and become non-tropical by midweek next week. Wilfred will not pose any major impacts to land.

Subtropical Storm Alpha quickly moved onshore and dissipated over Portugal and Spain.

A tropical wave will emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend, and this system could attempt to become an organized tropical system early next week.

We are also monitoring post-tropical cyclone Paulette as it continues to swirl several hundred miles to the north-northwest of the Azores. Paulette will move southward over the next couple of days before stalling over some warmer waters to the southwest of the Azores. This warmer water may allow Paulette to regenerate into a tropical cyclone later in the weekend or early next week.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Storm Beta Will Affect Parts Of Coastal Texas & Coastal Louisiana The Next Few Days; Hurricane Teddy Is Expected To Pass To The East Of Bermuda On Monday Morning & Then Impact Parts Of Nova Scotia On Tuesday
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
September 19, 2020

Tropical Storm Beta is a storm that is being impacted by southwesterly wind shear and some dry air. Because of this, much of the thunderstorm activity is being pushed to the northeast of the low-level center. In fact, the heavy rain that is affecting southeastern Louisiana right now is being caused by Beta. Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm have found a central barometric pressure of 995 millibars and winds near 60 mph.

Beta is expected to turn towards the west by later today as a high pressure ridge builds to the north. This west to west-northwest track is then expected to continue through Sunday and Monday leading to the storm to be located along the Texas coast between Corpus Christi and Galveston by Monday evening. Once Beta is near the Texas coast, a trough of low pressure passing to the north will lead to the storm turning to the north and northeast. The big question is where will this turn occur in proximity to the Texas coast. Will it occur along or just offshore of the Texas coast like the UKMET model suggests or will it be much further inland like the track model consensus guidance and the HWRF model suggests. At this point, Im not really sure because it is going to be a slow-moving storm when it reaches the Texas coast and any small deviations in forward speed and direction will mean the difference between Beta moving 100 miles inland into southeastern Texas or riding along the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Beaumont.

Beta is likely to continue to be impacted by southwesterly wind shear and some dry air throughout today. The environmental conditions may become more favorable for strengthening once Beta turns to the west later today and some strengthening is possible. One reason that could keep Beta from strengthening is dry air pushing off of the Texas coast. Even with that, it looks likely that Beta should be anywhere from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 80 mph hurricane when it reaches the area between Corpus Christi and Galveston on Monday evening. Beyond this, the forecast strength of Beta will be dependent on whether it is inland (quick weakening) or just offshore of the Texas coast (maintains tropical storm strength) while it heads northeastward. Needless to say, Beta is likely to be a very difficult storm to forecast & small changes in forward motion and strength will be important in determining forecast impacts along the Texas coast and the Louisiana coast.

Hurricane Teddy is still a major hurricane, although it has a very ragged and disorganized eye right now. Teddy is likely to turn due north within the next 12-24 hours as the hurricane approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. It now appears that Teddy will pass far enough east of Bermuda to prevent a hurricane strike on the island. Instead, tropical storm conditions look likely across Bermuda on Sunday night into Monday.

Beyond this, it looks like Teddy will continue moving quickly due north and will make landfall in eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Tuesday night.

For Those Of You In Bermuda Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of Bermuda beginning Sunday evening and continuing through much of Monday.

For Those Of You In Atlantic Canada, Including Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island It looks quite possible that Teddy could bring you some very strong winds on Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, especially across eastern Nova Scotia and across Prince Edward Island. Wind gusts to 60-90 mph (97-145 kph) are possible across parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

In addition, very heavy rainfall looks very likely across much of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island beginning Tuesday morning and continuing until early Wednesday morning. In fact, some of this heavy rainfall may also impact eastern New Brunswick during Tuesday night.

Large Swells, Huge Surf & Rip Currents Teddy is expected to continue to produce large swells, large surf and the threat for rip currents across the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the US East Coast throughout this weekend into the first half of next week. In fact, some minor coastal flooding is possible at the time of high tide this weekend into early next week across many beaches along the US East Coast.

October Could Be A Very Busy Month For The Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: Unfortunately, it appears that the tropics show no signs of slowing down anytime soon & there is growing evidence that October could be quite an active month across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

The combination of a growing La Nina, favorable conditions across the Atlantic & very warm ocean waters that have been nearly untapped across the Caribbean makes me very concerned for October tropical activity.

The very long range model guidance are already beginning to hint at another wave of activity to begin at the very end of this month and continue into October. The European ensemble guidance are hinting at tropical development to occur over the western Caribbean around October 1 and for it to head for the southern Gulf of Mexico by October 3. In addition to this, the GFS model also seems to be hinting at tropical development to occur in the western Caribbean around October 1 as well. This is supported by the GFS Parallel ensemble guidance which shows an increase in members forecasting tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean around September 30. By October 4, the ensemble members of the GFS Parallel ensemble guidance show a range of possibilities from a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche to a tropical system somewhere over the western or central Caribbean.



There are no posts in the last couple days on Atlantic hurricanes
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

September 16, 2020


Beta to Bring Heavy Rains to Texas and Louisiana; Teddy to Bring Severe Impacts to Southeast Canada



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)




Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 08:46 AM.