Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 1, 2022

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Belize NMS Forecast

July 1, 2022

At 6:00 am Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 was located near latitude 11.5N, longitude 79.9W or about 265 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving to the west at 18 mph. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm today as it approaches Central America.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 1, 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure in the far western Gulf of Mexico has degenerated into a surface trough and is now moving inland along the southern Texas coast. Development of this system is no longer anticipated as it moves farther inland. Regardless, heavy rain and associated flooding are possible over portions of southeast Texas. For more on the potential for heavy rain and flooding, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Western Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands today and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave near 11.8N 77.7W at 01/0300 UTC or 360 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 73W and 82W. A westward motion will bring the system across the southwestern Caribbean Sea through Friday, crossing Central America Friday night, and emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening expected as the system crosses Central America.

...Tropical Waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 29W, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 23W and 31W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 56W, from 17N southward, moving west at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer pass found a distinct wind shift across the wave with fresh to strong winds on either side north of 12N. Scattered weak convection is observed from 10N to 16N between 49W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is in the Caribbean near 77W, from 18N southward, moving west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 73W and 82W.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to move W-SW overnight and reach near 11.5N 80.2W Fri morning as a Tropical Storm, near 11.3N 82.8W Fri evening, and then inland across southeastern Nicaragua Fri night, before continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat evening. A strong tropical wave located along 57W is forecast to move over the Lesser Antilles on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea Fri evening through Sat night. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Still watching a pair of tropical rainstorms

July 1, 2022

Tropical Rainstorm 2 is located at 11.50N, -80.00W with sustained winds of 40 mph and maximum winds of 52 mph, moving W at 21 mph, pressure 29.77 in.

We are currently tracking two tropical rainstorms across the Atlantic basin, one in the Gulf of Mexico and one in the far southern Caribbean. There are also tropical waves along 55 west, 45 west and near 25 west. The wave near 55 west has a small chance to develop over the next couple of days before it moves into a zone of higher wind shear. Waves along 45 west and 25 west have little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with them and are not expected to develop or organize further.

A tropical rainstorm (designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two by the National Hurricane Center) is continuing to move west through the far southern Caribbean. The rainstorm is expected to become better organized over the next day or two and become a tropical storm as it continues into the southwest Caribbean. The storm will then threaten parts of Central America, especially Nicaragua, with strong winds and flooding rainfall from Friday into Saturday. It is then expected to emerge into the eastern Pacific this weekend, likely sometime Saturday.


120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Storm Bonnie Expected To Move Inland Into Nicaragua & Costa Rica Tonight
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

July 1, 2022

Tropical Storm Bonnie: Reconnaissance aircraft investigating our system in the southwestern Caribbean found a well defined low level circulation. Additionally, satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with this system is well organized. Because of this, the disturbance formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Bonnie is expected to make landfall late tonight over Nicaragua and Costa Rica as a moderately strength tropical storm.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico: Even though tropical development is not expected, there are two other areas I wanted to briefly mention.

The first is a robust tropical wave thats going to impact much of the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands with heavy rainfall and squally weather beginning this afternoon and continuing through tonight and Saturday. Flash flooding and mud slides are possible in areas that receive continuously heavy rainfall.

Heavy rainfall and squally weather is then expected across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning late tonight and continuing through Saturday.

Squally weather looks to then affect Hispaniola, Cuba and much of the Bahamas by Sunday and Monday.

The second area that I wanted to mention is an area of thunderstorms now located along the North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia coasts. This convection is associated with an area of low pressure thats located along the Georgia coast.

This low pressure system is expected to hang around the area from coastal Georgia to coastal North Carolina bringing locally heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Finally, it looks like we may enter a quiet period across the Atlantic Basin for the next 2 to 3 weeks or so as a downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes through.

The next time period to watch for increased chances for tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin looks to be towards late this month and then throughout the month of August. A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic during later this month.

So, I really think that we will need to watch the period from the final week of this month through the month of August for our next enhanced period of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance 95L bringing drought relief to coastal Texas; PTC 2 steams toward Central America
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

June 30, 2022

Visible satellite image of PTC 2 (left) and another tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles (right) at 11:30 a.m. EDT Thursday, June 30, 2022. (Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/CSU)

Two Atlantic tropical rainmakers were threatening to become tropical cyclones on Thursday, June 30. One disturbance, designated 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), was spinning off the South Texas coast. Another disturbance, Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 (PTC 2), was speeding across the southwestern Caribbean. Either system could become a tropical cyclone today, but regardless of what theyre called, their heavy rains will affect a wide swath of coastline.

The system of more immediate U.S. interest is 95L. Satellite images on Thursday afternoon showed a modest area of heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of a broad circulation just off the South Texas coast, but there was no well-defined low-level surface circulation. Radar images showed 95Ls low-level bands of precipitation to be poorly organized, with heavy rains affecting the Texas coast near Galveston. A station at Jamaica Beach on Galveston Island recorded 2.72 inches of rain in just one hour on Thursday morning (see Tweet below).

Upper-level winds from the southwest were creating light wind shear of 5-10 knots, pushing dry air into the heart of 95L, and its environment was only moderately moist (relative humidity of 60%). Steering currents are expected to take 95L to the north at roughly 5 mph through Thursday night, bringing the center ashore along the central Texas coast Thursday evening.

Given the weakness of the surface circulation and the expected persistence of wind shear, there is little chance that 95L will undergo rapid intensification. Its main effects on the Texas and Louisiana coasts heavy rains of 2-4 inches are likely to be more beneficial than problematic, as the region has been dealing with moderate to severe drought. But some localized flooding is possible, especially in parts of coastal Texas, where isolated rainfall totals could approach or exceed seven inches.

PTC 2 near tropical storm status

As of 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, tropical disturbance Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (PTC 2) was speeding west at 20 mph away from the northern coast of Colombia across the southwestern Caribbean. This was the 11th advisory the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had issued for the potential tropical cyclone, setting a new record for the longest period of time a system has been classified that way (see Tweet below). PTC 2 was centered about 660 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua, with top winds of 40 mph. The broad area of rotation within PTC 2 was beginning to form distinct low-level circulation, but its overall organization did not yet warrant classification as a tropical storm.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions around PTC 2 will favor strengthening through landfall on Friday night in Central America: light wind shear (below 10 knots), warm ocean temperatures of 28 degrees Celsius (82F), and a moist midlevel atmosphere (relative humidity 70%). PTC 2 had been hampered from developing a closed circulation through Thursday morning because of its proximity of the coast and its fast rapid forward speed. Both of these factors are now less of an issue, which should help it become a tropical storm by Thursday night. PTC 2 is likely to make landfall on Friday night as a strong tropical storm or weak category 1 hurricane near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. The storm is expected to survive crossing Central America and become a tropical storm or hurricane in the eastern Pacific by early next week. When such a system remains an identifiable tropical cyclone while crossing Central America, it retains its original name, a policy in place since 2000.

Tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles poses little threat

A tropical wave located in the central tropical Atlantic near longitude 53W on Thursday afternoon was moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Satellite images showed that this wave was quite disorganized, and it is headed into an area of high wind shear that will make development unlikely. In a Thursday tropical weather outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 10:20 AM.