Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 26, 2017

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Area wind information


Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, June 26, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 26, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. Its axis extends from 13N17W to 04N18W. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, however intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust limit convection to scattered showers and tstms from 03N to 13N E of 21W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N27W to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting scattered showers from 02N-10N between 22W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N43W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep convection at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 18N66W to inland Venezuela near 08N67W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Isolated showers are between 63W and 71W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from 20N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to favorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are in the SW Caribbean W of 80W, but mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.

...The Caribbean Sea...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective activity associated with it, latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of 17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and 83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC waters within 18 hours while the easternmost wave races towards the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean waters tonight.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Remaining quiet across the Atlantic
Accuweather

6/26/2017

Strong wind shear from a robust subtropical high along with dry, dusty Saharan air will inhibit any tropical development for at least the next 5 days.



120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Development Is Not Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

June 26, 2017

Even though tropical development is not expected throughout this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, there are still some areas to at least mention and keep an eye on.

The first area to take a look at is the Bay of Campeche where we saw an increase in thunderstorm activity there yesterday. The weather features that were causing the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is a upper level low pressure system that is located to the north and a surface trough of low pressure that is located over the Bay of Campeche. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the shower and thunderstorm activity has died down and it appears this entire weather feature will gradually push westward into eastern Mexico over the next couple of days. In addition, the environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche are expected to become unfavorable by Tuesday. So, bottom line is that I am not expecting any sort of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week.

The second area to check out is a tropical wave that is located over the central Atlantic between 45 and 50 West Longitude. There is a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave due to dry, stable air surrounding this wave. The reason why I am mentioning this tropical wave is this is the wave that the Canadian model is forecasting to become a tropical cyclone later this week near the northern Lesser Antilles. This is the only model forecasting this and I do not expect to see tropical development from this tropical wave. The reason why is because the environmental conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable for development throughout this week, especially west of 55 West Longitude where wind shear values increase to 30 to 50 knots.

I also wanted to address the GFS model guidance’s insistence over the last couple of days of forecasting tropical development from a couple of tropical waves between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles – the first one early next week and the second one during the week of July 10th. I am more skeptical of the tropical development forecast for early next week than I am for the one during the week of July 10th. The reason why is because we are now in a downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and it is forecast to remain this way across the Atlantic through at least the first half of next week. This downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will promote less storminess across the Atlantic Basin and lead to an overall unfavorable environment for tropical development for at least the next week to 10 days. So, in my opinion, the GFS model does not make sense with its tropical development forecast for early next week. With that said, it will be watched for just in case the GFS model is seeing something that I’m not.

A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to gradually move into the Atlantic Basin after July 10th. So, the forecast of tropical development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa by the GFS model during the week of July 10th is somewhat possible. Lending some credence to this is the European model which is hinting at a strong tropical disturbance to move off of the coast of Africa around July 6th. With that said, I do think that the GFS model guidance may be too quick with its forecast of tropical development and feel that the chances for tropical development will begin to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa starting between July 15th and July 20th as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Wednesday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Tuesday.



Dora Becomes the Year’s First Western Hemisphere Hurricane
Jeff Masters, Category 6

June 26, 2017


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Above: A GOES-16 infrared satellite image of Hurricane Dora as of 11:17 am EDT Monday, June 26, 2017. Today’s images of Dora are the first hurricane images to be gathered by the new GOES-16 satellite, which was launched on November 16, 2016. Hurricane Otto formed in the Caribbean only a few days after GOES-16 was launched, but imagery was not yet available from the new satellite. Images from GOES-16 remain preliminary and non-operational. Image credit: NASA MSFC Earth Science Office.

After a burst of intensification that took hold on Sunday, Hurricane Dora was prowling the open waters of the Northeast Pacific on Monday. Dora is the first hurricane-strength storm to develop in the Western Hemisphere in 2017, following three named storms in the Atlantic and three in the East Pacific. Dora is also the first hurricane to be tracked by the new high-resolution GOES-16 satellite, the first in the next-generation GOES sequence.

As of 11:00 am EDT Monday, Dora was located about 175 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, according to the NWS/NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC). Dora was packing sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph), making it a solid Category 1 hurricane. Dora reached hurricane strength early Monday, taking advantage of sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 27°C (81°F) combined with very low wind shear (less than 5 knots) and a moist middle atmosphere (relative humidity above 70%).
 

WU tracking map for Hurricane Dora, 15Z 6/26/17
Figure 1. WU depiction of NHC forecast for Hurricane Dora as of 11:00 am EDT Monday, June 26, 2017.

Outlook for Dora

Dora is moving northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, and that motion is predicted to continue with a gradual arc toward the west. This movement will keep it offshore and no threat to land, apart from a few heavy rain bands on Monday along the immediate Mexican coast.

Dora’s days as a hurricane are numbered because it is quickly moving toward cooler waters. By early Tuesday, Dora will be passing over SSTs below the benchmark 26°C level for tropical cyclone development. Wind shear will remain quite low, so Dora may take its time spinning down. NHC’s forecast on Monday morning called for Dora to dip below hurricane strength by Tuesday afternoon. Around that point, it will pass near or over Socorro Island, which hosts a Mexican naval station and several dozen permanent residents. Dora’s weakening will allow the low-level trade winds to take an increasing role in steering the system, thus producing the expected westward arc.

Finally, a hurricane—but it’s not all that late for it

According to climatology, the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season typically arrives on June 26, so we are exactly on schedule for that statistic. However, the fourth named storm of the year typically does not arrive until July 14, so we are ahead of the usual pace for named storms.

Although we made it almost halfway through 2017 before notching our first hurricane in the Western Hemisphere, that’s not so unusual. According to expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), the last time we went this long without a hurricane in the Atlantic or Northeast Pacific was 2008, which saw Hurricane Boris develop in the Pacific on July 1 and Hurricane Bertha in the Atlantic on July 7.

Ten other years since 1971 saw their first Atlantic or Northeast Pacific hurricane after June 25.  In some of those years, though, we had already seen a hurricane-strength system east of the International Date Line in the Western Pacific. For example, the first hurricane of 2016 was Bud, which developed in the Northeast Pacific on July 12—but Cyclone Vaianu reached Category 1 strength east of Fiji (in the Western Hemisphere) on February 11.

The long-range Atlantic outlook

A strong tropical wave that will be coming off Africa later this week bears watching. It is far too soon to know if or how this wave might develop as a tropical cyclone, but the GFS ensemble system provides some support for the idea of this impulse intensifying over the western tropical Atlantic a little over a week from now. Although this region becomes slightly more favorable for development in July, only a handful of tropical cyclones have formed east of the Antilles during early and mid-July in records going back to 1851.



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Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image