Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.
USA National Weather Service Forecast
June 13, 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form
in this area by Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion
The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W from just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 27W and 30W.
The axis a tropical wave is near 36W from 15N southward, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 02N to 07N between 31W and 41W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 54W and 56W. This tropical wave is
forecasted to reach near the Windward Islands late tonight,
increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms there.
The axis of a tropical wave is along 80W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave over the Caribbean waters.
...The Caribbean Sea...
Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the S
central Caribbean and just offshore of the central coast of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are
4 to 7 ft in the S central Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in the
central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
Gulf of Honduras extending inland across NW Honduras, far eastern
Guatemala, Belize, and the far southern portion of the Mayan coast
of Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the lee
of Cuba likely due to upper level divergence.
For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical
wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon.
48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Still keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico
June 13, 2021
While there are still no tropical systems across the Atlantic basin and none are expected to develop through the beginning of next week, we continue to keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development later in the week.
A broad area of rotation in the midlevels, sometimes called a gyre, has formed and is enhancing thunderstorm activity from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the waters of the eastern Pacific, just along the southern coast of Mexico. As of now, the threat of development through the weekend appears to be over the Eastern Pacific Ocean near the coast of southern Mexico, but the disturbance in the eastern Pacific is expected to drift to the north and into the southern Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week. This is when the concern for development will increase across the Gulf.
Through the weekend and early next week, much of southern Mexico and northern Central America can have heavy downpours and flooding, regardless of whether or not a tropical system forms.
During the second half of next week, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the southern and western Gulf of Mexico which may result in an area of low pressure developing at the surface. While there is expected to be some wind shear across the region which will help to prevent development, the presence of very warm water will aid in development and it is possible a tropical system can develop. While the future of this system remains uncertain, long-range guidance suggests areas from northeastern Mexico to the central Gulf Coast could have some impacts later next week.
Also, a front will stall along the southeastern coast of the United States in the coming days. A weak area of low pressure can form off the Georgia or Carolina coast later on Sunday or Monday, while the wind shear remains relatively light across the area. There is not much support for tropical development at this time, though it will have to be monitored. Later on Tuesday and into the middle of the week, wind shear will increase across the region which should end the threat for any development.
120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Increasing Chance For Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development By The Middle Of Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 12, 2021
The chances for a tropical system to form (probably a tropical storm) in the western Gulf of Mexico by about the middle part of next week are increasing.
Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there are two areas to watch right now. The first is an area of shower and thunderstorm activity that is occurring over the Bay of Campeche and the second is an area of disturbed weather that is located over the far eastern Pacific. It is the area of disturbed weather that’s now located over the far eastern Pacific that will move northward and consolidate with the area of showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche by about Monday or Tuesday. Development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm seems likely by about the middle part of next week as this system slowly moves northward across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Analysis of environmental conditions indicates that wind shear values are currently too strong across the Gulf of Mexico to support tropical development. Further to the south, however, it appears that wind shear values are favorable across the eastern Pacific and these favorable wind shear conditions should gradually move northward into the Bay of Campeche at the same time that disturbance moves into the Bay of Campeche from the eastern Pacific during the first half of next week. This means that the environmental conditions should be favorable to support tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the early and middle parts of next week.
I want to emphasize that this is likely to be a very slow-moving system that packs a lot of moisture with it. This is a serious concern of mine and it is something that I will be watching extremely closely. The reason why is because the combination of the slow moving system that has a lot of moisture could mean a lot of rainfall for some parts of the western and especially the northern Gulf Coast later next week and next weekend.
Taking a look at the model guidance, all of the operational models and their ensemble counterparts continue to insist that tropical development will probably occur by the middle part of next week in the western Gulf of Mexico. The individual models just differ on their track forecasts.
For instance, the GFS model continues to insist that this system will head for southeastern Louisiana as a tropical storm by next Saturday with the heaviest rain and gustiest winds found across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia next weekend. Interestingly, a majority of the GFS ensemble members are further west and show a track towards the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana next Saturday.
The Canadian model and the European model, on the other hand, forecasts a track to the far upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana by next Saturday with extremely heavy rain and gusty winds found to the east from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle next weekend.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that we will see the tropical disturbance that is now located over the eastern Pacific reach the Bay of Campeche by about Monday with the potential of it becoming a tropical depression by about Wednesday as it heads slowly northward across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the environmental conditions may be favorable across the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from Monday to about Thursday, increasing southwesterly wind shear could lead to this system becoming east-weighted storm by late next week into next weekend – meaning, most of the squally weather & heavy rain will occur on the eastern side of this system. This means that areas from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle could see the heaviest rainfall amounts from this system.
As for track and possible intensity – As of right now, I think that this system will become a tropical depression by about Wednesday over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. From there, this system will probably become a tropical storm by late next week as it continues to head northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico reaching the far upper Texas coast or the southwestern and south-central coast of Louisiana by next Saturday as a tropical storm with 45-60 mph winds.
Possible Impacts: As I already mentioned, I think that this could be a east-weighted system and thus most of the squalls and heavy rainfall may occur to the east of where this system comes ashore. Based on this, squally weather with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding could occur across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, much of the Florida Panhandle and parts of southwestern Georgia from late next week through next weekend. Given the very wet weather parts of southern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi have experienced over the last 30 days, this additional possible rainfall could be a HUGE concern for late next week and next weekend. This is something that will need to be watched extremely closely.
Finally – The tropical disturbances moving off of the coast of Africa continue to be rather robust for this time of year. With that said, development is not expected due to unfavorable conditions for now. The strength and resiliency of these disturbances make me think that we could see some tropical development in the far eastern or central Tropical Atlantic by late this month or in early July. This sort of development would be early for this time of year, but it is not unheard of. In fact, the latest GFS model does show tropical development occurring in the far eastern Tropical Atlantic at the end of June. This is something that I will be keeping an eye on and will keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Sunday.
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