Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: April 30, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, April 30, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 5 days.

We have come to the official end of the 2016 hurricane season. The season turned out above average activity as fifteen named storms formed, of which seven became hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status. That is category three, four or five on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. The strongest was Matthew which reached a peak intensity of 160mph, while heavy rainfall affected the country late during the season as Hurricane Otto crossed the Central American mainland. Earl, a category one hurricane crosed the country on August 3rd with-out any loss of life, but left a trail of destruction in the Agriculture and Tourism industry.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

April 30, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

No tropical disturbances.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...
The 6-hour forecast: a cold front from 29.5n93w to 21n98w. S of 24n W of front: NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots and sea heights reaching 8 feet. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc, for more details.

Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: www.Meteofrance.Com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. The outlook, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of a SW near gale or severe gale in Irving. The threat of N or NE near gale or gale in Agadir.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Cuba, toward an upper level trough, whose cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 70w eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A middle level-to-upper level 22n70w cyclonic circulation center is spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the area from 75w eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate from 14n in the Caribbean Sea to 23n in the Atlantic Ocean between 56w and 72w. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 17n to 20n between 72w and 82w. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 30n southward between 60w and 80w. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean from 23n northward between 60w and 70w. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 30/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...are 0.50 in Guadeloupe.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Will return in June, 2017

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Officially Starts June 1

4/22/2017 2:09:58 PM

This product is scheduled to resume on a daily basis on June 1, 2017. However, if additional early 2017 season tropical development is expected this product will be updated until the tropical feature has died.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

The Western Caribbean Will Be An Area To Watch For Possible Tropical Development Between May 8th & May 15th
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

April 27, 2017

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Possible Between May 8th & May 15th: The long range operational GFS model and GFS ensemble model guidance continues to hint at possible tropical development sometime between May 8th and May 15th.

The weather pattern that could produce tropical development in the western Caribbean will include a strong cold front that pushes southeastward across the entire southeastern United States, all of the Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean late next week and next weekend (May 4th to May 6th). As this front lifts out, it could either leave behind a piece of energy in the western Caribbean or lift a piece of energy northward from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean during the week of May 8th. This area of disturbed weather could find favorable environmental conditions to try and develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the western Caribbean between May 8th and May 15th.

Right now, only the GFS model and its ensemble members are forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean. You should take the GFS model with a grain of salt as it has a bias towards forecasting erroneous tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean and we could very well be seeing the same thing here. One thing that is somewhat noteworthy is that the GFS ensemble guidance initially forecasts low pressure to develop in the eastern Pacific between May 8th and May 11th, but then forecasts this system to be pulled northward across Central America into the western Caribbean by about May 13th.

The Canadian model guidance is forecasting eastern Pacific tropical cyclone development during the weekend of May 6th and 7th and this could end up occurring instead. Finally, the European model guidance is also hinting at tropical development in the eastern Pacific around May 7th and 8th.

My Thoughts Are That I still think that the overall weather pattern could turn favorable for at least a marked increase in storminess and possibly tropical development in the western Caribbean starting next weekend with this stormy weather pattern in the western Caribbean continuing through the week of May 8th to May 13th.

At this point, I still think that there is a 5 to 10 percent chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean between May 8th and May 15th. There seems to be a higher chance for eastern Pacific tropical development over western Caribbean tropical development. Also, as I already mentioned, we could very well see initial development in the eastern Pacific from May 8th to May 11th that ends up crossing over Central America into the western Caribbean by May 12th to May 15th.

Should we see consistency and support in the weather data that points to western Caribbean tropical development during that May 8th to May 15th time frame, then the tropical development chances would need to be increased.

Finally, signals from the very long range CFS model guidance seems to point to the possibility of tropical activity in the Caribbean at the very end of May or the very beginning of June. So, if we don’t see any sort of tropical activity during the May 8th to May 15th period, then there could be another chance for some sort of tropical development in the Caribbean by the end of May and the beginning of June.

I will be monitoring the risk for tropical development in the western Caribbean closely and will continue to have updates for you. Our next update will likely be issued on either Tuesday or Wednesday.

The Short, Early Life of Tropical Storm Arlene
Jeff Masters, Category 6

April 21, 2017, 7:22 AM

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a premature start on Thursday, April 20, with the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene. Originally designated a subtropical depression by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Wednesday, Arlene was reclassified as a tropical depression on Thursday, and its top sustained winds reached 40 knots (45 mph) at 5:00 pm EDT Thursday, enough to qualify it as Tropical Storm Arlene.

Top winds in Arlene were increased to 50 mph on Thursday night, based on partial data from Arlene’s periphery gathered by the ASCAT scatterometer. Subsequent ASCAT data on Friday morning from Arlene’s center suggested that the storm might no longer have a closed center of circulation, so Arlene is likely to be declassified as a tropical cyclone on Friday, although winds at some distance from the core may still be above tropical storm strength. Update: NHC issued its final advisory on dissipating Arlene at 11 am EDT Friday.

Arlene’s circulation was evident days ago as a large non-tropical gyre drifting across the remote Eastern Atlantic, including a small center with some eye-like characteristics. Sea surface temperatures beneath the circulation were only about 20°C (68°F), far below the standard minimum of 26°C (79°F) for tropical development. However, the upper atmosphere was cold enough to support the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and the broad upward motion gradually enabled the system to develop a warm core, thus triggering the shift from subtropical to tropical status. Arlene began to move northwest and west on Thursday as the circulation was gradually captured by an approaching midlatitude trough.

How unusual is Arlene?

Arlene is a rarity, as Jeff Masters noted in a post on Wednesday. Getting a tropical or subtropical depression in the Atlantic in April is about a once-per-decade event, and a tropical storm in April is even more unusual. The NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks website shows that only four April tropical or subtropical depressions are known to have formed in in the Atlantic prior to Arlene, although many such systems would have gone undetected prior to the advent of routine satellite monitoring in the 1970s. Only two of the four April systems on record became named tropical storms: Arlene (2017) and Tropical Storm Ana (2003). An unnamed April subtropical storm in 1992 also achieved tropical storm-force winds, and two other April tropical depressions formed in 1981 and 1973.

Arlene is also the northernmost of the few tropical storms that have developed this early in any season on record, as reported by Tropical activity hits a climatological minimum in the North Atlantic during late winter and early spring, as sea surface temperatures reach their lowest points of the year and strong wind shear often prevails. The only tropical cyclones on record in the Atlantic that made it beyond depression strength during February and March are a system on February 2-3, 1952, that moved across South Florida as a tropical storm, and an unnamed hurricane that struck the U.S. Virgin Islands at Category 2 strength on March 6-9, 1908. Because Ana and Arlene both followed a gap of more than six weeks between tropical-storm-strength systems, one might consider them roughly tied as the earliest tropical storms on record, although most records are oriented toward calendar years rather than the climatology of the hurricane season itself.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; 16 hours ago.