Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 26, 2017
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, June 26, 2017
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
June 26, 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. Its axis
extends from 13N17W to 04N18W. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, however intrusion of Saharan dry air and
dust limit convection to scattered showers and tstms from 03N to
13N E of 21W.
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N27W
to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate moist
environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and
is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting
scattered showers from 02N-10N between 22W and 35W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N43W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear.
However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep
convection at the moment.
A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
18N66W to inland Venezuela near 08N67W, moving W at 20 kt within
the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind
shear and is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of
dry air according to CIRA LPW. Isolated showers are between 63W
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N81W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W, moving west at 20
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral
to favorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist environment
with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Numerous heavy showers
and tstms are in the SW Caribbean W of 80W, but mainly associated
with the EPAC monsoon trough.
...The Caribbean Sea...
The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already
discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective
activity associated with it, latest scatterometer data continue
to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of
17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and
83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage
and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC
waters within 18 hours while the easternmost wave races towards
the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean
Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Remaining quiet across the Atlantic
Strong wind shear from a robust subtropical high along with dry, dusty Saharan air will inhibit any tropical development for at least the next 5 days.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Tropical Development Is Not Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 26, 2017
Even though tropical development is not expected throughout this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, there are still some areas to at least mention and keep an eye on.
The first area to take a look at is the Bay of Campeche where we saw an increase in thunderstorm activity there yesterday. The weather features that were causing the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is a upper level low pressure system that is located to the north and a surface trough of low pressure that is located over the Bay of Campeche. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the shower and thunderstorm activity has died down and it appears this entire weather feature will gradually push westward into eastern Mexico over the next couple of days. In addition, the environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche are expected to become unfavorable by Tuesday. So, bottom line is that I am not expecting any sort of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week.
The second area to check out is a tropical wave that is located over the central Atlantic between 45 and 50 West Longitude. There is a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave due to dry, stable air surrounding this wave. The reason why I am mentioning this tropical wave is this is the wave that the Canadian model is forecasting to become a tropical cyclone later this week near the northern Lesser Antilles. This is the only model forecasting this and I do not expect to see tropical development from this tropical wave. The reason why is because the environmental conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable for development throughout this week, especially west of 55 West Longitude where wind shear values increase to 30 to 50 knots.
I also wanted to address the GFS model guidance’s insistence over the last couple of days of forecasting tropical development from a couple of tropical waves between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles – the first one early next week and the second one during the week of July 10th. I am more skeptical of the tropical development forecast for early next week than I am for the one during the week of July 10th. The reason why is because we are now in a downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and it is forecast to remain this way across the Atlantic through at least the first half of next week. This downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will promote less storminess across the Atlantic Basin and lead to an overall unfavorable environment for tropical development for at least the next week to 10 days. So, in my opinion, the GFS model does not make sense with its tropical development forecast for early next week. With that said, it will be watched for just in case the GFS model is seeing something that I’m not.
A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to gradually move into the Atlantic Basin after July 10th. So, the forecast of tropical development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa by the GFS model during the week of July 10th is somewhat possible. Lending some credence to this is the European model which is hinting at a strong tropical disturbance to move off of the coast of Africa around July 6th. With that said, I do think that the GFS model guidance may be too quick with its forecast of tropical development and feel that the chances for tropical development will begin to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa starting between July 15th and July 20th as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Wednesday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Tuesday.
Dora Becomes the Year’s First Western Hemisphere Hurricane
Jeff Masters, Category 6
June 26, 2017
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