Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 20, 2019

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

November 20, 2019

At 3:00apm the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near 21.0N latitude, 61.0W longitude or about 235mls Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Sebastien was moving Northwest at 8mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

November 20, 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Tropical Storm Sebastien is near 21.0N 61.0W at 20/0900 UTC, or about 205 nm NE of the northern Leeward Islands. Sebastien is moving NW at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward to 240 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. Sebastian will turn to the north today and move to near 23N 61W tonight. The cyclone is forecast to become extratropical Thu night as it reaches near 29N 54.5W. Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday. Sebastien is expected to become absorbed by a cold front on Friday. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The Forecast/Advisories are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...Tropical Waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 38W-45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72/73W from 09N-20N, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A surface trough extends from the Turks and Caicos Islands through the Windward Passage to near Jamaica. Isolated moderate convection is near the trough axis. Isolated showers are also present in the western Caribbean from 10N-20N between 81W-85W in an area of slightly higher moisture content. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds from 12N-21N between 78W-83W. Fresh NE winds will prevail across most of the western Caribbean through Fri morning, with highest winds expected in the Windward Passage.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Storm Sebastien over the open Atlantic

November 20, 2019

Tropical Storm Sebastien is located at 20.9° N, -60.9° W with maximum sustained winds of 46 mph and gusts to 58 mph, moving WNW 10 mph, pressure 29.65 inHg.

Tropical Storm Sebastien remains over the Central Atlantic. Sebastien is currently 235 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It is tracking to the west-northwest at 9 mph.

Some slight strengthening can be anticipated over the next few days despite wind shear gradually increasing. That said, Sebastien will begin to lose tropical characteristics as it turns northward and toward cooler ocean temperatures. The storm will start to interact with an eastward-moving cold front later in the week and eventually merge with this system. No impact to land is expected prior to this transition.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there aren't any features of concern and no additional development is expected over the next 48 hours.

120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

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Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
November 2, 2019

Tropical Storm Sebastien Forms in Atlantic
Jeff Masters, Category 6

November 20, 2019

Above: GeoColor satellite image of Tropical Storm Sebastien at 1640Z (11:40 am EST) Tuesday, November 19, 2019. A low-level swirl can be seen on the northwest edge of Sebastien’s cloud shield, revealing how westerly shear is pushing Sebastian’s showers and thunderstorms east of its center. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/CSU.

The Atlantic tapped us on the shoulder Tuesday morning with the formation of Tropical Storm Sebastien, reminding us that hurricane season isn’t over for a couple more weeks. The disturbance formerly known as 90L was designated Sebastien at 11 am EST Tuesday, with top sustained winds of 45 mph. Sebastien was located almost 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands, moving north-northwest at 8 mph over open waters.

The disturbance that became Sebastien had been tracked by NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook since Saturday. Long-range models had pointed toward some development for days, and showers and thunderstorms (convection) had become increasingly organized, with surface winds strengthening. However, there was no evidence of the closed circulation required for a tropical cyclone until an ASCAT scatterometer pass on Tuesday morning suggested a tiny closed low was present.

After drifting slowly north-northwest for the next day or two, Sebastien will get swept up into a strong midlatitude front and upper-level trough moving off the U.S. East Coast, pushing the storm toward the northeast. It’s quite possible Sebastien will take on subtropical characteristics as it interacts with the front and trough and as wind shear increases further. Sebastien’s winds may actually increase as it moves toward its ultimate fate as an extratropical frontal low. With no land masses in its immediate path, Sebastien will pose no problems for any populated areas while it remains a named storm.

“Sebastien’s formation brings the Atlantic tally for 2019 to 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 124.1. The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities by November 19 were 11.6 named storms, 6.2 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 102.3, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, so 2019 is near or above average in all metrics.”

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Last edited by Marty; 8 hours ago.