Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 20, 2017
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
October 20, 2017
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
October 20, 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Discussion
A tropical wave extends from 08N43W to 18N40W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 34W-45W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
16N. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-23N between 28W-
41W. This convection is being enhanced by an upper level low
centered N of the wave axis near 23N41W.
A tropical wave extends from 10N70W to 20N72W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
68W-74W and a weak maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the
wave axis near 16N. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-
19N between 70W-77W.
A tropical wave extends from 09N79W to 20N80W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 76W-83W and
a weak maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis
near 17N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 09N-20N
...The Caribbean Sea...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 17N82W providing an overall divergent environment W of 70W.
The divergence along with two tropical waves moving across the
basin are generating scattered showers and tstms from 14N-20N
between 70W-78W...and from 09N-22N between 78W-89W...including
inland portions of Central America. Plenty of atmospheric moisture
in associated with the ridge and will likely continue to produce
relatively active convection through the weekend. Otherwise...
fresh to strong trades prevail E of 80W as the pressure gradient
strengthens while strong high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlc
coast and into the western North Atlc. The trades are expected to
remain strong through Monday night.
Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Atlantic Basin to remain void of tropical activity the next several days
There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic Basin at this time. Westerly upper-level winds are well established over large sections of the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico, the southwestern Atlantic and across the main developmental region between Africa and the eastern Caribbean. These strong upper-level winds will help to create strong vertical wind shear across most of the basin through at least the middle of next week. As a result of this persistent vertical wind shear, no tropical development is expected across the basin through at least Thursday of next week.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Remains Possible Late Next Week Into Next Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 19, 2017
Western Caribbean Tropical Development Remains Possible Late Next Week Into Next Weekend: Even though the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet this morning with no areas that are going to develop anytime soon, we continue to closely monitor the potential for western Caribbean tropical development starting around late next week and continuing through next weekend. This is something that is not a sure thing, but given the very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that is expected to move into the Atlantic in about 5-10 days from now, it is something that needs to be monitored very closely.
Looking at the latest model guidance – The latest GFS model guidance has essentially dropped the idea of western Caribbean tropical development and now shows eastern Pacific tropical development as well as the development of a robust coastal storm that moves from offshore of the North Carolina coast next Thursday to southern and central New England next Friday bringing the threat for heavy rainfall.
The Canadian model guidance still forecasts tropical development in the western Caribbean as soon as Wednesday of next week and shows this tropical cyclone lifting north and northeastward to the Florida Peninsula next Friday.
The European model guidance is pointing towards eastern Pacific tropical development next weekend and does not show any sort of western Caribbean tropical development.
The UKMET model guidance forecasts low pressure to develop over the southwestern Caribbean around the middle part of next week.
Finally, the European ensemble tropical cyclone probability forecast chart continues to point towards a 50-60 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean around the middle and late parts of next week.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the GFS and European model’s forecasts of eastern Pacific tropical development are wrong. The reason why I think this is that we are in a La Nina phase of the ENSO and during a La Nina, late season western Caribbean tropical development is much more likely over eastern Pacific tropical development. So, I’m very skeptical of these models showing the eastern Pacific tropical development and not showing any sort of western Caribbean development.
So, with that said, I still think that the western Caribbean will be the area to watch for potential tropical development late next week through next weekend. With that said, this is not a sure thing, but it is something to keep a very close eye on.
If we do see western Caribbean tropical development late next week and next weekend, the possibility is there for this possible system to track north and then northeastward which could put the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas at risk from any developing/intensifying tropical cyclone during the October 29th to November 3rd timeframe.
The possibility for western Caribbean tropical development is something that I continue to keep a close eye on and I’ll have additional updates for you in the coming days.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Saturday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday.
Watch the Western Caribbean Next Week
Jeff Masters, Category 6
October 17, 2017
Time to watch the southwestern Caribbean next week
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A broad area of low pressure (92L) that we’ve been tracking over the past week was located near Bermuda, but is poorly organized, and will likely be absorbed by a frontal system on Wednesday. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, and which can increase the odds of tropical cyclone formation when it is strong and located in the proper location, currently favors tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific, but not the Atlantic. However, recent long-range forecasts predict that the MJO can be expected to begin favoring Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by late next week.
The long-range GFS and European models and their ensemble runs have been showing that the waters of the Southwest Caribbean can be expected to serve as the focus for possible development of a new tropical depression late next week, though it is too early to zero in on exactly where or when such a storm might get going. The way this season has gone, we should expect to get at least one more damaging named storm in the Atlantic in 2017; the Southwest Caribbean is the most likely place for such a storm to form.
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image